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When a recruit signs, each of their six skills is rolled inside a band set by star & position — a 5-star outside hits attack somewhere in 10–11, a middle's defense lands in 5–8. Same star, different player. This is where every team's dice actually landed.

Luck = where each rolled skill fell in its band, versus the expected middle. Net is total skill points gained or lost to the dice; Ceiling is the share of available points a class captured (50% is a perfectly average roll). Guaranteed max-skill specialists are excluded — no dice there.

? Hottest class

Quincy

Grade A · 61% of ceiling · +3.0 net

? Coldest class

Mendon

−7.5 net · just 29% of ceiling

? Perfect roll

Masataka Iwaki

Alton · 4★ S · 100% of ceiling

? 5-star, rolled a dud

Diego Vitale

Sheboygan · 5★ MB · 0% of ceiling

#	Team	?	Recs	Net	? Bright spotbest roll on team	Ceil	Grade
1	Quincy	?	4	+3.0	Lawrence Courtney4★ L · 83%	61%	A
2	Teutopolis	?	4	+3.5	Warren Lyons3★ OH · 82%	59%	A-
3	Santa Clara	?	4	+3.5	Ian Nickerson4★ S · 80%	59%	A-
4	Portland	?	4	+3.0	Charlie Lindsay4★ RS · 88%	59%	A-
5	Denali	?	4	+2.5	Donnie McFarland5★ OH · 75%	58%	A-
6	Alton	?	4	+2.5	Masataka Iwaki4★ S · 100%	57%	B+
7	San Jose	?	4	+2.0	Theon Seaworth4★ MB · 67%	57%	B+
8	Dallas	?	4	+2.0	Sylvester Cooper3★ MB · 67%	55%	B
9	Mat-Su	?	5	+2.0	Bryan Thorne5★ L · 75%	55%	B
10	Pekin	?	4	+1.5	Yoshimura Yoshio3★ MB · 89%	55%	B
11	Starkville	?	4	+1.0	Kinji Shinta4★ L · 83%	54%	B
12	Schenectady	?	4	+1.0	Fernando Bernini5★ MB · 67%	53%	B-
13	Nashville	?	3	±0.0	Per Rausch3★ MB · 67%	50%	C+
14	Tucson	?	4	±0.0	Alfonso Vega4★ L · 67%	50%	C+
15	Baton Rouge	?	4	±0.0	Frankie Gibson3★ S · 60%	50%	C+
16	Kentucky	?	5	±0.0	Flavius Pertinax3★ S · 90%	50%	C+
17	St. Charles	?	5	−0.5	Umberto Cabal3★ S · 60%	49%	C
18	Albuquerque	?	3	−0.5	Gustavo Baresi3★ OH · 54%	48%	C
19	Antioch	?	5	−2.5	Lyle Haynes4★ OH · 62%	45%	D+
20	Columbia	?	4	−2.0	Mohammed Cordova5★ MB · 83%	44%	D+
21	Arlington	?	4	−2.0	Robert Skinner3★ MB · 71%	44%	D+
22	Ames	?	5	−2.5	Gianfranco Spagnolo5★ OH · 75%	44%	D+
23	Cincinnati	?	4	−2.0	Roy Gamblin3★ RS · 63%	43%	D
24	San Diego	?	4	−3.5	Matthias Balmer1★ L · 67%	41%	D-
25	Merritt Island	?	6	−5.0	Branson Murray1★ OH · 64%	41%	D-
26	Carlsbad	?	4	−3.5	Axel Cortez3★ L · 63%	39%	F
27	New Orleans	?	5	−5.0	Jamie Atherton4★ OH · 62%	39%	F
28	Manitowoc	?	2	−3.5	Takenaka Manobu3★ S · 60%	35%	F
29	Burlington	?	4	−6.0	Mateo Rasgado1★ L · 67%	32%	F
30	Spokane	?	4	−6.0	Hans-Peter Trummer4★ MB · 43%	32%	F
31	Sheboygan	?	3	−4.0	Luciano Moran5★ OH · 50%	30%	F
32	Mendon	?	4	−7.5	Bobby Randolph5★ S · 60%	29%	F

? blessed? good? mild? even (~50%)? chilly? cold? frozen

Computed from 131 signed recruits across the season-16 class, straight from the conversion bands in recruiting_rating_to_skills — the same table the sim rolls against. Nothing here is new data; the luck was always in the numbers.

Readers Comments

20th out of 30 feels like a victory.

Steve Turner on Sunday, Jul. 19th, 2026 at 4:08 PM

19th out of 32 feels just like how my career in TMVL has gone... a D+ rating.

Rob Peterson on Saturday, Jul. 25th, 2026 at 4:19 PM

Interesting how Quincy always gets lucky "dice rolls"

Max Sellers on Saturday, Jul. 25th, 2026 at 5:03 PM

Rich get richer. Exhibit A.

Phil McIntosh on Sunday, Jul. 26th, 2026 at 5:28 AM

A B- for a 5* seems low, but I am still trying to figure how this system works.

Brian Beerman on Wednesday, Jul. 29th, 2026 at 4:34 PM