TMVL Rankings

Version 1.1
March 4th, 2021

Explanation of Rankings Formula

Guiding Values:

1. Team strength matters, just like in college athletics. This is especially true early in the season, when the Win-Loss records all start 0-0 and stay close for a few sessions. For TMVL, strength is measured by T7, and that means T7 is the largest single rankings value. T7 is ranked 16 (best) to 1 (worst) and multiplied by 3 as a starting point.

2. Team depth matters. At some point, there may be an injury that leaves a starter on the sidelines. There will always be 3 and 4-match sessions where you can’t hide the bench without exhausting the starters. T14 reflects that depth, and also gets measured. However, it gets half the weight that the T7 does toward final ranking points.

3. Freshman development matters. Every team is going to have weak players. This by itself is not a problem, as every team has to get the youth in for experience and spend resources for coaching. The total roster average score can reveal where a team is ‘top heavy’ though, and stacking their T7 at the expense of developing a future roster. The average score for “T7 minus Roster” gives us a picture of how far apart the A squad and the C squad are. The larger the gap, the worse the total team may fare as the season progresses. This is an admittedly small factor in total team rank, so the total values of the rankings are divided by 4, and count as a negative score against the T7 & T14 totals. As the C-team and youth improve, this negative score will decrease. Since Seniors have static ratings, any increase in the bottom of the roster has to close the gap.

4. Winning matters. Being competitive in losses does too. Wins should outweigh sets won in a loss. A team gets ranking points for winning, and typically ¼ of those points for winning a set during a loss. A 5-set loss, where you won 2 sets, will get your team half the points of actually winning the match. A team that gets swept 3-0 gets no points in the loss. There are no bonus points for sweeping a team. Winning in 3, 4, or 5 sets gets the same points. A win is a win, and every win requires 3 set victories, so they get the same points. Points for wins, and sets won in a loss, will accumulate as the season progresses.

5. Not all competitions are equal. To weigh relative importance, I took guidance from the different bonus RP values a team gets for placing well or winning the conference and other competitions. Here is a table for points earned through Win (i.e. winning the match), and for Sets (i.e. winning a set during a loss).

6. Resources matter, though not nearly as much as team strength and wins. Consider them as more of a small ‘bonus’ to the rankings score. Everyone gets 60 CP per session. Using that as a base point, a team gets 1 additional ranking point for every 5 CP over 60. More CP = more talent down the line, so it matters in the season-long rankings considerations.

7. Similarly, more RP = better chance of landing a top recruit, yet you have to use it to be of value. Just having it won’t win a match. RP only gets a small bonus if you have a lot and are more ‘likely’ to get a 5-star than a 3-star by season’s end. RP is ranked 16-1 by most RP available, then that number is divided by 4 to keep it weighted no higher than winning one conference match. Total score impact will be 0.25 – 4.0. This score will vary as the season progresses and teams spend and earn RP.

8. Recruits count toward “winning” a season. For each 5-star recruit a team signs, the team gets a bonus 5 points to the rankings score. 4-stars get you 3 points. 3-stars get you 1. Any post-competitive signings don’t count. This score can only go up with each signing, to the max 4 players you can sign in one season. Max possible score here is 20, if you signed the max 4 players and they were all 5-star recruits. If you don’t end up signing any competitive recruits, this number stays at 0.

Summary

And that gives a total ranking. Total score also reveals how big a gap exists between teams, and where tight groupings fall. If lumped close together, a good session could push a squad to jump a few places. If there’s a substantial T7 gap, a team may have to win 3-4 more matches than the ‘better’ squad, and maybe out-recruit them, to overcome that team in the rankings. Ultimately, the rankings early in the season should be more of a predictor about who “should” be playing in the Cup finals and in the Championship come season end. As the season progresses, performance matters. Total victories will outweigh the gaps between respective teams’ T7 & T14 scores. If the weighted match values work as hoped, the overall best squads by record will climb toward the top of the rankings table. Since some managers focus on different Cups, or conference vs. tourneys, this gives a way to compare season-long results of differing agendas.

Suggestions for improvements are welcomed, as is critical feedback. All values are readily adjustable for total rankings ‘weight,’ should the rankings fail to pass the ‘eye test’ and not be of use in helping identify top contenders (as a kind of pre-season prediction rankings) or reflect actual results (better records should cause teams to rise as seasons progress).

Click this link for a spreadsheet with end of session 6 rankings for illustrative purposes.

Kevin