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This was posted by Steve on the Blog. Reposting here in case it drops down the blog and people lose track of it. Please read through a couple of times and ask questions. There's cool and helpful info here.
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Little Things
By Steve Turner
Nearly a year ago John posted this table. If you have a 51% chance of winning every point then you have a 56% chance of winning the match
51% -> 56% chance of winning a match
52% -> 61%
53% -> 67%
54% -> 71%
55% -> 76%
56% -> 80%
57% -> 84%
58% -> 87%
59% -> 90%
60% -> 92%
It's pretty rare to win 51% of points on your serve - it really only happens if T7 meets B7. Even with New Orleans thrashing of Columbia they only won 33 of their 75 points on serve. But it shows how a small increase in your chance of getting a point gives a bigger increase in the chance of winning that match.
My most important consideration on line-ups is serve rotation. The player in position I will get more chances to serve than the one in II because the set could end before II gets his chance. Increasing SRV from 13 to 14 might not mean much but it increases the chance of an excellent serve from 51% to 53% and decreases the chance of the poorest two serves by 1% each. The chance of the serve being in goes up from 85% to 86%, the chance of serving to the weaker receivers goes up. If increasing your SRV from 13 to 14 means their next best receiver's RCV goes down from 16 to 15 it means their chance of a Pass 3 goes down from 59% to 56%. The worse the pass the worse the set, the worse the set the worse the attack (more chance of being hit out, of being blocked or dug).
Now this player only serves once every six man rotation and it's only a 1 or 2% increase/decrease but combined with having your best blockers at the net early in the rotation, having your best defenders at the back row early on, not having your setter at the net early on (he doesn't attack as well as your other players), having your better attacking MB at the net early on (in case the setter gets an excellent pass from the receiver) all add up.
Readers Comments
Thanks again to Steve for his post here. All of this is helpful even if I have to read it 2-3 times because I'm a little slow.
Maybe if you read it slower will help Al.
Agree that the small changes add up.
How do we delete this before it's too late? Rob is tough enough to play already, when he has no clue of what goes on within matches. If he starts to figure this out, we're all doomed.
Proud of myself for figuring this out ahead of schedule. A rarity for me. Thanks Steve.
