Aka - setters win matches

Aka - getting my excuses in early

We play Quincy on Sunday, twice. Fortunately we have the home court advantage in both which, I think, makes us 5 point favourites. Underdogs do win at -5, I'm not sure of the stats but I'd rather be +5 than -5. 

But rather than just look at the overall scores I thought I'd take each skill in turn. I've assumed T7 from both teams - one might throw a game for the TMVL - actually no, it will be T7.

SRV: assuming we play in optimum serve order we have a 1 point advantage at #1 and Quincy the same at #3 and #5. Nothing in it.

RCV: our three receivers are 1 point better than Quincy's. So slightly more aces, less errors and better passes to the setter - and we'll need it 

Assuming equal luck - if one team has significantly better stats due to the random factor then that is likely to be the reason for the win.

ATK (OH/RS): Columbia's are better baba total of 6 points. If the Sets are good this means more kills, less hitting out.

ATK (MB): this come into play with an excellent pass - we are significantly better with 18,18 to 16,12. With good receiving and good setting this could be the reason we win.

BLK: our blockers are better but I've worked out that it only amounts to a 14% to 13% advantage with 2 blockers. It could mean one extra block for us. A lot of that +5 comes from blocking but for little reward.

DEF: allowing for the libero playing more often we are practically equal.

SET: now this is my worry. It's an 18 to 15 advantage to Quincy. With a Pass 3 from the receiver it's only a 15% chance of 2 or 3 blockers when Quincy sets, but about 26% when we set. This could be more significant than our good ATK. The better setting could even out their ATK deficit anyway and the better chances of blocking sway things in their favour.

Time will tell.