Crewe are coming here with more attacking threat and they'll fancy their chances, but Northampton's groundsman has done his job — that pitch will suit nobody but the home side. Felipe Fernandez needs to get tight in midfield and stop Crewe playing through the lines, because if they get space they'll cause problems all afternoon. A draw feels about right but I'd back Northampton to nick it late if Fernandez wins that midfield battle.

Crewe arrive with genuine attacking intent — nine estimated incursions against six suggests they're not here to park anything — but Northampton's home advantage quietly tips the scales back toward parity. Felipe Fernandez in midfield will need to be disciplined rather than adventurous, because Crewe's forward momentum through that left channel looks like the most exploitable dynamic on the pitch. A draw feels like the honest result, though I suspect both managers will claim they deserved more.