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Watford
James Tucker
 
Derby County
Martyn Hathaway
 
 
League Round 10
 
 
 
 

S  T  A  R  T  I  N  G      L  I  N  E  U  P  S

WATFORD                                    DERBY COUNTY

Ps Player Name            SL  FIT  LVL     Ps Player Name            SL  FIT  LVL
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gk Riccardo Di matteo     16    2   18     Gk Fernando Pellistri     14    2   16
Sw Saul Aquino            13    2   15     Df Rodrigo de Corona      13    0   13
Df Felipe Pérez           13    2   15     Df Alex Hassan            12    2   14
Df Waldemar Skoras        11    2   13     Df Mikkel Iversen          7    2    9
Df Walter McGree           7    2    9     Mf Ike Azeez              14    2   16
Mf Hirving Borgetti       12    0   12     Mf Peder Petersen         11    2   13
Mf Dennis Olsen           11    1   12     Mf Henry Rowles            7    2    9
Fw Matty Begum            13    1   14     Mf Lukasz Bereszynski      7    2    9
Fw Edgar Jimenez          12    2   14     Mf Yahia El mostafa       10   -1    9
Fw Samuel Bidault          9    2   11     Fw Ramzi Sellimi           7    2    9
Fw Valerio Paredes         8    2   10     Fw Erik Christiansen       7    2    9

      Gk Sw Df Mf Fw   A R E A  T O T A L S    Gk Sw Df Mf Fw
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
      18 15 37 24 49        ROSTER TOTALS      16  0 36 56 18    
       0  0  0  0  1          HARDNESS          0  0  0  1  1    
       0  0  0  0  9       HOME ADVANTAGE       0  0  0  0  0    
       0  0  0  0  0  GREAT PERFORMANCE POINTS  0  0  0  0  0    
       0  0  0  0  0        PLAY FOR DRAW       0  0  0  0  0    
=======================================================================
      18 15 37 24 59         T O T A L S       16  0 36 57 19    

============================================================================
============================================================================
B  O  O  K  I  N  G  S

Each player is next given a chance for a yellow/red card.  The first
number listed is the chance for the player to get the yellow/red
card while the second number shows the random number drawn.  If the 
random number is less than or equal to the player's yellow/red card 
chance then the player is sent off.  Note that the chances are as follows:
	- Booking: 1.5 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness))
	- Red Card: 0.25 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness)))

If a player is booked we immediately draw a second number to check
for a 'second yellow' (red card chance) resulting in a sending off.
If a player is not booked we draw a red card chance to see if the player
was given a straight red card.  Note that the aforementioned formula
differs for a Gk where the formula uses the hardness points added to
your Gk area and NOT the team hardness points.

*******  WATFORD YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
   - Team Hardness = 1
   - Gk   Hardness = 0

Gk Riccardo Di matteo: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 26.7 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 78.17 (no red card)

Sw Saul Aquino: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 95.48 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 22.87 (no red card)

Df Felipe Pérez: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 57.11 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 13.6 (no red card)

Df Waldemar Skoras: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 57.58 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 11.38 (no red card)

Df Walter McGree: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 64.07 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 78.21 (no red card)

Mf Hirving Borgetti: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 39.5 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 10.16 (no red card)

Mf Dennis Olsen: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 70.88 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 73.81 (no red card)

Fw Matty Begum: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 34.22 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 98.34 (no red card)

Fw Edgar Jimenez: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 32.64 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 17.29 (no red card)

Fw Samuel Bidault: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 98.8 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 19.62 (no red card)

Fw Valerio Paredes: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 89.63 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 16.59 (no red card)

*******  DERBY COUNTY YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
   - Team Hardness = 2
   - Gk   Hardness = 0

Gk Fernando Pellistri: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 55.99 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 7.88 (no red card)

Df Rodrigo de Corona: Chance of booking = 7.5% | Random number = 23.73 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.25% | Random number = 96.57 (no red card)

Df Alex Hassan: Chance of booking = 7.5% | Random number = 1.32 (BOOKED!) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.25% | Random number = 57.27 (no second yellow)

Df Mikkel Iversen: Chance of booking = 7.5% | Random number = 31.13 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.25% | Random number = 54.62 (no red card)

Mf Ike Azeez: Chance of booking = 7.5% | Random number = 20.88 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.25% | Random number = 60.19 (no red card)

Mf Peder Petersen: Chance of booking = 7.5% | Random number = 51.76 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.25% | Random number = 19.79 (no red card)

Mf Henry Rowles: Chance of booking = 7.5% | Random number = 97.69 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.25% | Random number = 58.93 (no red card)

Mf Lukasz Bereszynski: Chance of booking = 7.5% | Random number = 82.33 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.25% | Random number = 17.73 (no red card)

Mf Yahia El mostafa: Chance of booking = 7.5% | Random number = 25.55 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.25% | Random number = 6.86 (no red card)

Fw Ramzi Sellimi: Chance of booking = 7.5% | Random number = 10.01 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.25% | Random number = 12.64 (no red card)

Fw Erik Christiansen: Chance of booking = 7.5% | Random number = 50.44 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.25% | Random number = 77.7 (no red card)
============================================================================
============================================================================
I  N  J  U  R  I  E  S

A major consequence of hardness is that your opponents get injured. 
For each player the chance of injury is:   
  ((your team’s hardness * .25) + (opponent’s hardness * .75) + 2.5)%.
    For example if your team has a hardness of 8 and the opposition has a hardness of 4,
    the chance of injury for each player would be: 2 + 3 + 2.5 or 7.5%.

The chance is halved for the opposition Gk. A player plays at half 
his normal level (skill plus fitness) in the match in which he is injured.

Injured players lose fitness as a result, the amount of fitness lost being
shown on the game report in brackets. There is a 30% chance of no fitness loss,
15% chance of 1 level fitness lost, 15% of 2 levels, and a 10% chance
of each of 3,4,5, or 6 fitness levels being lost. 
This fitness loss (if any) takes place at the end of the session, for 
reasons of simplicity. Should a player be injured twice or
more in a session, only the most severe injury will apply.


*******  WATFORD CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
   - Watford Team Hardness = 1
   - Derby County Team Hardness = 2
   - All (except Gk) chance of injury = 4.25%
   - Gk chance of injury = 2.12%
Gk Riccardo Di matteo: Chance of injury = 2.12% | Random number = 14.66 (no injury) 
Sw Saul Aquino: Chance of injury = 4.25% | Random number = 80.51 (no injury) 
Df Felipe Pérez: Chance of injury = 4.25% | Random number = 1.6 (INJURED!) 
      Targeted fitness lost = 1
      Felipe Pérez is being assisted by the Physio.  He won't lose any fitness points, but he'll have to come off.
      Felipe Pérez new match skill level =  7
      Felipe Pérez new match total level =  9
Df Waldemar Skoras: Chance of injury = 4.25% | Random number = 41.58 (no injury) 
Df Walter McGree: Chance of injury = 4.25% | Random number = 58.94 (no injury) 
Mf Hirving Borgetti: Chance of injury = 4.25% | Random number = 53.17 (no injury) 
Mf Dennis Olsen: Chance of injury = 4.25% | Random number = 77.88 (no injury) 
Fw Matty Begum: Chance of injury = 4.25% | Random number = 49.79 (no injury) 
Fw Edgar Jimenez: Chance of injury = 4.25% | Random number = 84.81 (no injury) 
Fw Samuel Bidault: Chance of injury = 4.25% | Random number = 59.27 (no injury) 
Fw Valerio Paredes: Chance of injury = 4.25% | Random number = 65.73 (no injury) 

*******  DERBY COUNTY CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
   - Derby County Team Hardness = 2
   - Watford Team Hardness = 1
   - All (except Gk) chance of injury = 3.75%
   - Gk chance of injury = 1.87%
Gk Fernando Pellistri: Chance of injury = 1.87% | Random number = 57.29 (no injury) 
Df Rodrigo de Corona: Chance of injury = 3.75% | Random number = 67.91 (no injury) 
Df Alex Hassan: Chance of injury = 3.75% | Random number = 43.03 (no injury) 
Df Mikkel Iversen: Chance of injury = 3.75% | Random number = 10.6 (no injury) 
Mf Ike Azeez: Chance of injury = 3.75% | Random number = 70.49 (no injury) 
Mf Peder Petersen: Chance of injury = 3.75% | Random number = 28.27 (no injury) 
Mf Henry Rowles: Chance of injury = 3.75% | Random number = 23.31 (no injury) 
Mf Lukasz Bereszynski: Chance of injury = 3.75% | Random number = 39.08 (no injury) 
Mf Yahia El mostafa: Chance of injury = 3.75% | Random number = 94.64 (no injury) 
Fw Ramzi Sellimi: Chance of injury = 3.75% | Random number = 35.67 (no injury) 
Fw Erik Christiansen: Chance of injury = 3.75% | Random number = 76.46 (no injury) 
============================================================================
============================================================================
P  E  N  A  L  T  Y     K  I  C  K  S

There is a 10% chance of conceding a penalty for every hardness point used.
Each 10% chance is separate, so a team could concede as many penalties as it plays
hardness points. If no hardness is used, there is still a 5% penalty chance. 
The chance of a penalty being scored is: 
  50 + (4 x penalty takers skill) - (2 x Gk skill)  %    (to a maximum 95%)

*******  DERBY COUNTY CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
   - Team Hardness: 2; (2 10% chances of yielding PKs)
   - PK Taker: Matty Begum SL 13
   - Defending Gk: Fernando Pellistri SL 14

1: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 86 (no penalty kick)
2: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 38 (no penalty kick)

*******  WATFORD CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
   - Team Hardness: 1; (1 10% chance of yielding a PK)
   - PK Taker: Ike Azeez SL 14
   - Defending Gk: Riccardo Di matteo SL 16

1: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 87 (no penalty kick)
============================================================================
============================================================================
A  T  T  A  C  K  I  N  G      C  H  A  N  C  E  S      &      S  H  O  T  S

  (i)   If team A's Fw area total is greater than team B's Df area total, 
        then A earns a number of attacks equal to the difference.
        Note: A Sw  does NOT add his levels to the Df in this league! 

  (ii)  The team with the highest Mf area total gets attacks equal to half
        the difference.

  (iii) If team A's Df area total is greater than team B's Fw total, then  
        team A earns a number of attacks equal to one fifth of the difference.
        If team A is playing a sweeper behind the defence, this rises to one 
        third of the difference.  All fractions of attacks are rounded up, 
        and then each of the attacks is treated as follows to see how many 
        produce shots, then goals: 

  (iv)  Attacks have first to beat the Sw (if playing!).  For each attack,
        there is a percentage chance of it being stopped equal to:
              30 + (Sw level x 2) % 
        (eg a level 10 Sw stops 30+10x2=50% of attacks.) Attacks passing the 
        Sw become shots.

  (v)   Each shot has a 35% chance of being off-target. If a side has scored
        2 goals this rises to 40%, then by a further 5% after each goal scored,
        to a maximum of 75%. This is to curb ridiculous scorelines (with luck!)

  (vi)  Finally, on-target shots come up against the  Gk. This is similar to 
        the Sw test, but the percentage is:
        40 + (Gk level x 2.25) % 

  Notes: If the defense is playing offside trap then the offensive team has
         their Fw attacks cut in half and theor Mf attacks doubled.

         A team choosing to PFD has 7 extra levels to split between Sw, 
         Df and Mf areas, but their attacks for each area will be halved 
         (round up fractions).

*******  WATFORD ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
  AREA TOTALS             GK  Sw  Df  Mf  Fw
  -------------------------------------------
  Watford                  18  15  31  24  59
  Derby County             16   0  36  57  19

Derby County is using Offside Trap!
Watford Fw Attacks = 12 (59 - 36) * 0.5 (OST Multiplier) ; result rounded up
Watford Mf Attacks = 0 ((24 - 57) / 2;  rounded up)
Watford Df Attacks = 4 ((31 - 19) / 3); result rounded up
Watford Total Attacks = 16

1: Attack for Df Waldemar Skoras
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Derby County
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 75 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 76.0% | Random number = 97.45 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 
2: Attack for Df Waldemar Skoras
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Derby County
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 16 (Shot Off Target) 
3: Attack for Df Walter McGree
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Derby County
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 19 (Shot Off Target) 
4: Attack for Df Walter McGree
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Derby County
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 38 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 76.0% | Random number = 71.07 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
5: Attack for Fw Matty Begum
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Derby County
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 83 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 76.0% | Random number = 39.87 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
6: Attack for Fw Valerio Paredes
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Derby County
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 79 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 76.0% | Random number = 68.77 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
7: Attack for Fw Edgar Jimenez
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Derby County
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 30 (Shot Off Target) 
8: Attack for Fw Valerio Paredes
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Derby County
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 60 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 76.0% | Random number = 24.22 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
9: Attack for Fw Edgar Jimenez
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Derby County
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 88 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 76.0% | Random number = 67.31 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
10: Attack for Fw Valerio Paredes
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Derby County
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 21 (Shot Off Target) 
11: Attack for Fw Edgar Jimenez
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Derby County
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 1 (Shot Off Target) 
12: Attack for Fw Matty Begum
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Derby County
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 44 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 76.0% | Random number = 92.7 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 
13: Attack for Fw Valerio Paredes
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Derby County
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 26 (Shot Off Target) 
14: Attack for Fw Edgar Jimenez
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Derby County
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 64 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 76.0% | Random number = 27.64 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
15: Attack for Fw Edgar Jimenez
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Derby County
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 11 (Shot Off Target) 
16: Attack for Fw Matty Begum
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Derby County
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 45 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 76.0% | Random number = 54.26 (Shot Saved by Gk) 

*******  DERBY COUNTY ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
  AREA TOTALS             GK  Sw  Df  Mf  Fw
  -------------------------------------------
  Derby County             16   0  36  57  19
  Watford                  18  15  31  24  59

Derby County Fw Attacks = 0 (19 - 31)
Derby County Mf Attacks = 17 ((57 - 24) / 2) ; result rounded up
Derby County Df Attacks = 0 ((36 - 59) / 5;  rounded up)
Derby County Total Attacks = 17

1: Attack for Mf Peder Petersen
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 81 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 82 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 80.5% | Random number = 0.14 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
2: Attack for Mf Ike Azeez
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 50 (Sw stopped attack) 
3: Attack for Mf Ike Azeez
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 100 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 72 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 80.5% | Random number = 43.57 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
4: Attack for Mf Ike Azeez
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 44 (Sw stopped attack) 
5: Attack for Mf Yahia El mostafa
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 79 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 5 (Shot Off Target) 
6: Attack for Mf Peder Petersen
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 5 (Sw stopped attack) 
7: Attack for Mf Ike Azeez
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 29 (Sw stopped attack) 
8: Attack for Mf Lukasz Bereszynski
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 80 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 1 (Shot Off Target) 
9: Attack for Mf Ike Azeez
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 15 (Sw stopped attack) 
10: Attack for Mf Yahia El mostafa
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 63 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 45 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 80.5% | Random number = 70.67 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
11: Attack for Mf Ike Azeez
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 39 (Sw stopped attack) 
12: Attack for Mf Ike Azeez
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 22 (Sw stopped attack) 
13: Attack for Mf Yahia El mostafa
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 96 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 18 (Shot Off Target) 
14: Attack for Mf Ike Azeez
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 88 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 98 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 80.5% | Random number = 86.82 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 
15: Attack for Mf Ike Azeez
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 48 (Sw stopped attack) 
16: Attack for Mf Henry Rowles
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 49 (Sw stopped attack) 
17: Attack for Mf Ike Azeez
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 76 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 29 (Shot Off Target) 
===============================================
     F  I  N  A  L         S  C  O  R  E
WATFORD 2  -  DERBY COUNTY 1
 
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