(H)
Watford
James Tucker
Plymouth Argyle FC
Rob Peterson
League Round 6
S T A R T I N G L I N E U P S
WATFORD PLYMOUTH ARGYLE FC
Ps Player Name SL FIT LVL Ps Player Name SL FIT LVL
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gk Mads Frost 15 2 17 Gk Ryan Vukovic 14 2 16
Sw Nico Lehmann 10 2 12 Sw Hamdi Trabelsi 12 1 13
Df Mykhailo Pavlyuk 17 2 19 Df Shiro Minamino 12 0 12
Df Shoichi Morita 12 2 14 Df Robert Bak 11 1 12
Df José Mendes 7 1 8 Df Faustino Simeone 7 2 9
Mf Dmitry Soroka 14 2 16 Mf Pedro Vazquez 12 0 12
Mf Octavio Barbosa 7 2 9 Mf Min-Jun Sung 6 2 8
Fw Djonno De boer 14 2 16 Fw Danylo Morozov 13 0 13
Fw Valerio Paredes 12 1 13 Fw Farzan Vestergaard 15 1 16
Fw Yassine Aloui 7 2 9 Fw Marek Carsley 8 2 10
Fw Trefor Lloyd 7 2 9 Fw Charlie King 7 2 9
Gk Sw Df Mf Fw A R E A T O T A L S Gk Sw Df Mf Fw
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
17 12 41 25 47 ROSTER TOTALS 16 13 33 20 48
0 0 0 0 1 HARDNESS 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 9 HOME ADVANTAGE 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 GREAT PERFORMANCE POINTS 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 PLAY FOR DRAW 0 0 0 0 0
=======================================================================
17 12 41 25 57 T O T A L S 16 13 33 20 48
============================================================================
============================================================================
B O O K I N G S
Each player is next given a chance for a yellow/red card. The first
number listed is the chance for the player to get the yellow/red
card while the second number shows the random number drawn. If the
random number is less than or equal to the player's yellow/red card
chance then the player is sent off. Note that the chances are as follows:
- Booking: 1.5 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness))
- Red Card: 0.25 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness)))
If a player is booked we immediately draw a second number to check
for a 'second yellow' (red card chance) resulting in a sending off.
If a player is not booked we draw a red card chance to see if the player
was given a straight red card. Note that the aforementioned formula
differs for a Gk where the formula uses the hardness points added to
your Gk area and NOT the team hardness points.
******* WATFORD YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
- Team Hardness = 1
- Gk Hardness = 0
Gk Mads Frost: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 80.19 (no booking)
Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 0.8 (no red card)
Sw Nico Lehmann: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 94.93 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 6.67 (no red card)
Df Mykhailo Pavlyuk: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 40.92 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 47.69 (no red card)
Df Shoichi Morita: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 81.03 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 29.84 (no red card)
Df José Mendes: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 84.79 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 51.13 (no red card)
Mf Dmitry Soroka: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 3.29 (BOOKED!)
Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 15.32 (no second yellow)
Mf Octavio Barbosa: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 11.72 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 51.33 (no red card)
Fw Djonno De boer: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 65.82 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 42.35 (no red card)
Fw Valerio Paredes: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 53.71 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 60.77 (no red card)
Fw Yassine Aloui: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 54.53 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 92.54 (no red card)
Fw Trefor Lloyd: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 28.53 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 34.63 (no red card)
******* PLYMOUTH ARGYLE FC YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
- Team Hardness = 0
- Gk Hardness = 0
Gk Ryan Vukovic: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 83.82 (no booking)
Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 32.61 (no red card)
Sw Hamdi Trabelsi: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 3.58 (BOOKED!)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 51.7 (no second yellow)
Df Shiro Minamino: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 95.37 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 85.87 (no red card)
Df Robert Bak: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 36.67 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 16.45 (no red card)
Df Faustino Simeone: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 93.18 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 76.98 (no red card)
Mf Pedro Vazquez: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 4.86 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 35.4 (no red card)
Mf Min-Jun Sung: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 64.7 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 10.28 (no red card)
Fw Danylo Morozov: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 90.88 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 75.0 (no red card)
Fw Farzan Vestergaard: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 11.93 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 34.83 (no red card)
Fw Marek Carsley: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 93.58 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 11.33 (no red card)
Fw Charlie King: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 50.57 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 66.93 (no red card)
============================================================================
============================================================================
I N J U R I E S
A major consequence of hardness is that your opponents get injured.
For each player the chance of injury is:
((your team’s hardness * .25) + (opponent’s hardness * .75) + 2.5)%.
For example if your team has a hardness of 8 and the opposition has a hardness of 4,
the chance of injury for each player would be: 2 + 3 + 2.5 or 7.5%.
The chance is halved for the opposition Gk. A player plays at half
his normal level (skill plus fitness) in the match in which he is injured.
Injured players lose fitness as a result, the amount of fitness lost being
shown on the game report in brackets. There is a 30% chance of no fitness loss,
15% chance of 1 level fitness lost, 15% of 2 levels, and a 10% chance
of each of 3,4,5, or 6 fitness levels being lost.
This fitness loss (if any) takes place at the end of the session, for
reasons of simplicity. Should a player be injured twice or
more in a session, only the most severe injury will apply.
******* WATFORD CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
- Watford Team Hardness = 1
- Plymouth Argyle FC Team Hardness = 0
- All (except Gk) chance of injury = 2.75%
- Gk chance of injury = 1.37%
Gk Mads Frost: Chance of injury = 1.37% | Random number = 15.61 (no injury)
Sw Nico Lehmann: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 86.76 (no injury)
Df Mykhailo Pavlyuk: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 78.61 (no injury)
Df Shoichi Morita: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 30.95 (no injury)
Df José Mendes: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 95.57 (no injury)
Mf Dmitry Soroka: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 14.77 (no injury)
Mf Octavio Barbosa: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 84.86 (no injury)
Fw Djonno De boer: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 73.59 (no injury)
Fw Valerio Paredes: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 62.22 (no injury)
Fw Yassine Aloui: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 77.09 (no injury)
Fw Trefor Lloyd: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 95.3 (no injury)
******* PLYMOUTH ARGYLE FC CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
- Plymouth Argyle FC Team Hardness = 0
- Watford Team Hardness = 1
- All (except Gk) chance of injury = 3.25%
- Gk chance of injury = 1.62%
Gk Ryan Vukovic: Chance of injury = 1.62% | Random number = 92.31 (no injury)
Sw Hamdi Trabelsi: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 3.64 (no injury)
Df Shiro Minamino: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 7.02 (no injury)
Df Robert Bak: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 57.11 (no injury)
Df Faustino Simeone: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 45.74 (no injury)
Mf Pedro Vazquez: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 61.87 (no injury)
Mf Min-Jun Sung: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 49.9 (no injury)
Fw Danylo Morozov: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 91.88 (no injury)
Fw Farzan Vestergaard: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 33.42 (no injury)
Fw Marek Carsley: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 43.33 (no injury)
Fw Charlie King: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 97.14 (no injury)
============================================================================
============================================================================
P E N A L T Y K I C K S
There is a 10% chance of conceding a penalty for every hardness point used.
Each 10% chance is separate, so a team could concede as many penalties as it plays
hardness points. If no hardness is used, there is still a 5% penalty chance.
The chance of a penalty being scored is:
50 + (4 x penalty takers skill) - (2 x Gk skill) % (to a maximum 95%)
******* PLYMOUTH ARGYLE FC CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
- Team Hardness: 0; (1 5% chance of yielding a PK)
- PK Taker: Mykhailo Pavlyuk SL 17
- Defending Gk: Ryan Vukovic SL 14
intRndPk = 58
1: Chance of PK occurring = 5% | Random number = 58 (no penalty kick)
******* WATFORD CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
- Team Hardness: 1; (1 10% chance of yielding a PK)
- PK Taker: Farzan Vestergaard SL 15
- Defending Gk: Mads Frost SL 15
1: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 37 (no penalty kick)
============================================================================
============================================================================
A T T A C K I N G C H A N C E S & S H O T S
(i) If team A's Fw area total is greater than team B's Df area total,
then A earns a number of attacks equal to the difference.
Note: A Sw does NOT add his levels to the Df in this league!
(ii) The team with the highest Mf area total gets attacks equal to half
the difference.
(iii) If team A's Df area total is greater than team B's Fw total, then
team A earns a number of attacks equal to one fifth of the difference.
If team A is playing a sweeper behind the defence, this rises to one
third of the difference. All fractions of attacks are rounded up,
and then each of the attacks is treated as follows to see how many
produce shots, then goals:
(iv) Attacks have first to beat the Sw (if playing!). For each attack,
there is a percentage chance of it being stopped equal to:
30 + (Sw level x 2) %
(eg a level 10 Sw stops 30+10x2=50% of attacks.) Attacks passing the
Sw become shots.
(v) Each shot has a 35% chance of being off-target. If a side has scored
2 goals this rises to 40%, then by a further 5% after each goal scored,
to a maximum of 75%. This is to curb ridiculous scorelines (with luck!)
(vi) Finally, on-target shots come up against the Gk. This is similar to
the Sw test, but the percentage is:
40 + (Gk level x 2.25) %
Notes: If the defense is playing offside trap then the offensive team has
their Fw attacks cut in half and theor Mf attacks doubled.
A team choosing to PFD has 7 extra levels to split between Sw,
Df and Mf areas, but their attacks for each area will be halved
(round up fractions).
******* WATFORD ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
AREA TOTALS GK Sw Df Mf Fw
-------------------------------------------
Watford 17 12 41 25 57
Plymouth Argyle FC 16 13 33 20 48
Watford Fw Attacks = 24 (57 - 33); result rounded up
Watford Mf Attacks = 3 ((25 - 20) / 2) ; result rounded up
Watford Df Attacks = 0 ((41 - 48) / 3; rounded up)
Watford Total Attacks = 27
1: Attack for Mf Octavio Barbosa
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 14 (Sw stopped attack)
2: Attack for Mf Dmitry Soroka
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 78 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 66 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 76.0% | Random number = 74.86 (Shot Saved by Gk)
3: Attack for Mf Dmitry Soroka
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 19 (Sw stopped attack)
4: Attack for Fw Trefor Lloyd
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 92 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 31 (Shot Off Target)
5: Attack for Fw Valerio Paredes
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 72 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 40 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 76.0% | Random number = 87.57 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!)
6: Attack for Fw Djonno De boer
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 63 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 53 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 76.0% | Random number = 22.32 (Shot Saved by Gk)
7: Attack for Fw Trefor Lloyd
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 45 (Sw stopped attack)
8: Attack for Fw Valerio Paredes
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 32 (Sw stopped attack)
9: Attack for Fw Trefor Lloyd
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 85 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 14 (Shot Off Target)
10: Attack for Fw Yassine Aloui
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 52 (Sw stopped attack)
11: Attack for Fw Djonno De boer
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 9 (Sw stopped attack)
12: Attack for Fw Djonno De boer
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 26 (Sw stopped attack)
13: Attack for Fw Trefor Lloyd
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 93 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 72 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 76.0% | Random number = 10.12 (Shot Saved by Gk)
14: Attack for Fw Djonno De boer
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 35 (Sw stopped attack)
15: Attack for Fw Yassine Aloui
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 85 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 57 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 76.0% | Random number = 48.88 (Shot Saved by Gk)
16: Attack for Fw Valerio Paredes
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 86 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 70 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 76.0% | Random number = 30.74 (Shot Saved by Gk)
17: Attack for Fw Valerio Paredes
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 5 (Sw stopped attack)
18: Attack for Fw Djonno De boer
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 41 (Sw stopped attack)
19: Attack for Fw Valerio Paredes
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 9 (Sw stopped attack)
20: Attack for Fw Trefor Lloyd
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 38 (Sw stopped attack)
21: Attack for Fw Yassine Aloui
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 26 (Sw stopped attack)
22: Attack for Fw Valerio Paredes
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 96 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 76 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 76.0% | Random number = 4.75 (Shot Saved by Gk)
23: Attack for Fw Yassine Aloui
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 17 (Sw stopped attack)
24: Attack for Fw Valerio Paredes
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 89 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 11 (Shot Off Target)
25: Attack for Fw Djonno De boer
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 14 (Sw stopped attack)
26: Attack for Fw Valerio Paredes
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 23 (Sw stopped attack)
27: Attack for Fw Yassine Aloui
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 68 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 85 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 76.0% | Random number = 69.83 (Shot Saved by Gk)
******* PLYMOUTH ARGYLE FC ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
AREA TOTALS GK Sw Df Mf Fw
-------------------------------------------
Plymouth Argyle FC 16 13 33 20 48
Watford 17 12 41 25 57
Plymouth Argyle FC Fw Attacks = 7 (48 - 41); result rounded up
Plymouth Argyle FC Mf Attacks = 0 ((20 - 25) / 2; rounded up)
Plymouth Argyle FC Df Attacks = 0 ((33 - 57) / 3; rounded up)
Plymouth Argyle FC Total Attacks = 7
1: Attack for Fw Danylo Morozov
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 54% | Random number = 84 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 77 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 78.25% | Random number = 73.8 (Shot Saved by Gk)
2: Attack for Fw Marek Carsley
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 54% | Random number = 24 (Sw stopped attack)
3: Attack for Fw Farzan Vestergaard
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 54% | Random number = 19 (Sw stopped attack)
4: Attack for Fw Danylo Morozov
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 54% | Random number = 46 (Sw stopped attack)
5: Attack for Fw Farzan Vestergaard
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 54% | Random number = 27 (Sw stopped attack)
6: Attack for Fw Farzan Vestergaard
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 54% | Random number = 47 (Sw stopped attack)
7: Attack for Fw Farzan Vestergaard
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 54% | Random number = 95 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 37 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 78.25% | Random number = 35.55 (Shot Saved by Gk)
===============================================
F I N A L S C O R E
WATFORD 1 - PLYMOUTH ARGYLE FC 0
Match Notes
Boston Rob flying into Vicarage Road with his attack-first philosophy and a trophy cabinet that mostly holds potential. JT will set up in whatever shape he woke up feeling, which historically hasn't troubled anyone much.
Olmec Head Marcus (Coventry City) 05/23 - 6:31 PM
This is a match that does NOT favor Plymouth according to these predictions. We might as well pack it in.
Rob (Plymouth Argyle FC) 05/30 - 3:01 PM
JT grinds out a 1-0 with presumably four defenders and a prayer. Boston Rob attacked, attacked, attacked — straight into a result column that remains stubbornly unchanged.
Olmec Head Marcus (Coventry City) 05/30 - 6:30 PM