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Preston North End FC
Ian Lindsay
 
Plymouth Argyle FC
Rob Peterson
 
 
League Round 6
 
 
 
 

S  T  A  R  T  I  N  G      L  I  N  E  U  P  S

PRESTON NORTH END FC                       PLYMOUTH ARGYLE FC

Ps Player Name            SL  FIT  LVL     Ps Player Name            SL  FIT  LVL
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gk Valentin Lugn          16    2   18     Gk Finlay Palmer          12    0   12
Sw Tjoris Dumfried        13    2   15     Df Nestor Omlin           13    0   13
Df Hayden Goodwin         14    2   16     Df Mohamadou Sy           12    2   14
Df Joel Calvo              7    2    9     Df Gustavo García         12    0   12
Mf Angus McKay            13    2   15     Df Bassirou Mbaye         11    2   13
Mf Bahaeeddine Ait         7    2    9     Mf Jorge Perez            13    0   13
Fw Eduardo Luna           14    2   16     Mf Tatsuo Itakura         11   -1   10
Fw Šime Sucic             10    2   12     Mf Oscar Bremer           11    2   13
Fw Geovanny Arley          7    2    9     Mf Khaled Balhadj          8    0    8
Fw Pol Ruiz                7    2    9     Fw Syam Arfaoui           16    0   16
Fw Atsushi Morioka         3    2    5     Fw Si-Won Min-woo         13    0   13

      Gk Sw Df Mf Fw   A R E A  T O T A L S    Gk Sw Df Mf Fw
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
      18 15 25 24 51        ROSTER TOTALS      12  0 52 44 29    
       0  0  0  0  0          HARDNESS          1  2  1  2  1    
       0  0  0  0  9       HOME ADVANTAGE       0  0  0  0  0    
       0  0  0  0  0  GREAT PERFORMANCE POINTS  0  0  0  0  0    
       0  0  0  0  0        PLAY FOR DRAW       0  0  0  0  0    
=======================================================================
      18 15 25 24 60         T O T A L S       13  2 53 46 30    

============================================================================
============================================================================
B  O  O  K  I  N  G  S

Each player is next given a chance for a yellow/red card.  The first
number listed is the chance for the player to get the yellow/red
card while the second number shows the random number drawn.  If the 
random number is less than or equal to the player's yellow/red card 
chance then the player is sent off.  Note that the chances are as follows:
	- Booking: 1.5 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness))
	- Red Card: 0.25 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness)))

If a player is booked we immediately draw a second number to check
for a 'second yellow' (red card chance) resulting in a sending off.
If a player is not booked we draw a red card chance to see if the player
was given a straight red card.  Note that the aforementioned formula
differs for a Gk where the formula uses the hardness points added to
your Gk area and NOT the team hardness points.

*******  PRESTON NORTH END FC YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
   - Team Hardness = 0
   - Gk   Hardness = 0

Gk Valentin Lugn: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 66.4 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 60.93 (no red card)

Sw Tjoris Dumfried: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 94.39 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 19.8 (no red card)

Df Hayden Goodwin: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 86.43 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 70.09 (no red card)

Df Joel Calvo: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 96.5 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 48.79 (no red card)

Mf Angus McKay: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 46.98 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 19.42 (no red card)

Mf Bahaeeddine Ait: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 83.07 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 48.57 (no red card)

Fw Eduardo Luna: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 52.19 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 93.32 (no red card)

Fw Šime Sucic: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 92.59 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 10.46 (no red card)

Fw Geovanny Arley: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 90.47 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 61.79 (no red card)

Fw Pol Ruiz: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 26.4 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 35.33 (no red card)

Fw Atsushi Morioka: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 56.68 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 48.58 (no red card)

*******  PLYMOUTH ARGYLE FC YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
   - Team Hardness = 7
   - Gk   Hardness = 1

Gk Finlay Palmer: Chance of booking = 6.75% | Random number = 1.32 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.0% | Random number = 28.75 (no red card)

Df Nestor Omlin: Chance of booking = 15.0% | Random number = 8.21 (BOOKED!) 
   Chance of second booking = 2.5% | Random number = 81.21 (no second yellow)

Df Mohamadou Sy: Chance of booking = 15.0% | Random number = 10.32 (BOOKED!) 
   Chance of second booking = 2.5% | Random number = 88.78 (no second yellow)

Df Gustavo García: Chance of booking = 15.0% | Random number = 41.41 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 2.5% | Random number = 2.71 (no red card)

Df Bassirou Mbaye: Chance of booking = 15.0% | Random number = 83.33 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 2.5% | Random number = 18.55 (no red card)

Mf Jorge Perez: Chance of booking = 15.0% | Random number = 47.7 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 2.5% | Random number = 15.29 (no red card)

Mf Tatsuo Itakura: Chance of booking = 15.0% | Random number = 71.63 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 2.5% | Random number = 6.2 (no red card)

Mf Oscar Bremer: Chance of booking = 15.0% | Random number = 97.66 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 2.5% | Random number = 75.76 (no red card)

Mf Khaled Balhadj: Chance of booking = 15.0% | Random number = 26.34 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 2.5% | Random number = 62.57 (no red card)

Fw Syam Arfaoui: Chance of booking = 15.0% | Random number = 74.74 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 2.5% | Random number = 20.94 (no red card)

Fw Si-Won Min-woo: Chance of booking = 15.0% | Random number = 19.33 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 2.5% | Random number = 13.47 (no red card)
============================================================================
============================================================================
I  N  J  U  R  I  E  S

A major consequence of hardness is that your opponents get injured. 
For each player the chance of injury is:   
  ((your team’s hardness * .25) + (opponent’s hardness * .75) + 2.5)%.
    For example if your team has a hardness of 8 and the opposition has a hardness of 4,
    the chance of injury for each player would be: 2 + 3 + 2.5 or 7.5%.

The chance is halved for the opposition Gk. A player plays at half 
his normal level (skill plus fitness) in the match in which he is injured.

Injured players lose fitness as a result, the amount of fitness lost being
shown on the game report in brackets. There is a 30% chance of no fitness loss,
15% chance of 1 level fitness lost, 15% of 2 levels, and a 10% chance
of each of 3,4,5, or 6 fitness levels being lost. 
This fitness loss (if any) takes place at the end of the session, for 
reasons of simplicity. Should a player be injured twice or
more in a session, only the most severe injury will apply.


*******  PRESTON NORTH END FC CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
   - Preston North End FC Team Hardness = 0
   - Plymouth Argyle FC Team Hardness = 7
   - All (except Gk) chance of injury = 7.75%
   - Gk chance of injury = 3.87%
Gk Valentin Lugn: Chance of injury = 3.87% | Random number = 59.24 (no injury) 
Sw Tjoris Dumfried: Chance of injury = 7.75% | Random number = 63.52 (no injury) 
Df Hayden Goodwin: Chance of injury = 7.75% | Random number = 54.78 (no injury) 
Df Joel Calvo: Chance of injury = 7.75% | Random number = 95.26 (no injury) 
Mf Angus McKay: Chance of injury = 7.75% | Random number = 29.35 (no injury) 
Mf Bahaeeddine Ait: Chance of injury = 7.75% | Random number = 88.05 (no injury) 
Fw Eduardo Luna: Chance of injury = 7.75% | Random number = 56.21 (no injury) 
Fw Šime Sucic: Chance of injury = 7.75% | Random number = 19.81 (no injury) 
Fw Geovanny Arley: Chance of injury = 7.75% | Random number = 89.86 (no injury) 
Fw Pol Ruiz: Chance of injury = 7.75% | Random number = 53.79 (no injury) 
Fw Atsushi Morioka: Chance of injury = 7.75% | Random number = 25.02 (no injury) 

*******  PLYMOUTH ARGYLE FC CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
   - Plymouth Argyle FC Team Hardness = 7
   - Preston North End FC Team Hardness = 0
   - All (except Gk) chance of injury = 4.25%
   - Gk chance of injury = 2.12%
Gk Finlay Palmer: Chance of injury = 2.12% | Random number = 70.52 (no injury) 
Df Nestor Omlin: Chance of injury = 4.25% | Random number = 28.99 (no injury) 
Df Mohamadou Sy: Chance of injury = 4.25% | Random number = 3.24 (INJURED!) 
      Targeted fitness lost = 1
      Mohamadou Sy is being assisted by the Physio.  He won't lose any fitness points, but he'll have to come off.
      Mohamadou Sy new match skill level =  6
      Mohamadou Sy new match total level =  8
Df Gustavo García: Chance of injury = 4.25% | Random number = 19.75 (no injury) 
Df Bassirou Mbaye: Chance of injury = 4.25% | Random number = 70.0 (no injury) 
Mf Jorge Perez: Chance of injury = 4.25% | Random number = 74.78 (no injury) 
Mf Tatsuo Itakura: Chance of injury = 4.25% | Random number = 93.06 (no injury) 
Mf Oscar Bremer: Chance of injury = 4.25% | Random number = 45.22 (no injury) 
Mf Khaled Balhadj: Chance of injury = 4.25% | Random number = 72.26 (no injury) 
Fw Syam Arfaoui: Chance of injury = 4.25% | Random number = 87.58 (no injury) 
Fw Si-Won Min-woo: Chance of injury = 4.25% | Random number = 32.65 (no injury) 
============================================================================
============================================================================
P  E  N  A  L  T  Y     K  I  C  K  S

There is a 10% chance of conceding a penalty for every hardness point used.
Each 10% chance is separate, so a team could concede as many penalties as it plays
hardness points. If no hardness is used, there is still a 5% penalty chance. 
The chance of a penalty being scored is: 
  50 + (4 x penalty takers skill) - (2 x Gk skill)  %    (to a maximum 95%)

*******  PLYMOUTH ARGYLE FC CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
   - Team Hardness: 7; (7 10% chances of yielding PKs)
   - PK Taker: Hayden Goodwin SL 14
   - Defending Gk: Finlay Palmer SL 12

1: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 37 (no penalty kick)
2: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 11 (no penalty kick)
3: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 62 (no penalty kick)
4: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 37 (no penalty kick)
5: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 83 (no penalty kick)
6: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 5 (PENALTY KICK!)
   Chance of scoring = 82% | Random number = 26 (PENALTY KICK GOOOAAALLL!!!)
7: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 72 (no penalty kick)

*******  PRESTON NORTH END FC CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
   - Team Hardness: 0; (1 5% chance of yielding a PK)
   - PK Taker: Syam Arfaoui SL 16
   - Defending Gk: Valentin Lugn SL 16

     intRndPk = 25
1: Chance of PK occurring = 5% | Random number = 25 (no penalty kick)
============================================================================
============================================================================
A  T  T  A  C  K  I  N  G      C  H  A  N  C  E  S      &      S  H  O  T  S

  (i)   If team A's Fw area total is greater than team B's Df area total, 
        then A earns a number of attacks equal to the difference.
        Note: A Sw  does NOT add his levels to the Df in this league! 

  (ii)  The team with the highest Mf area total gets attacks equal to half
        the difference.

  (iii) If team A's Df area total is greater than team B's Fw total, then  
        team A earns a number of attacks equal to one fifth of the difference.
        If team A is playing a sweeper behind the defence, this rises to one 
        third of the difference.  All fractions of attacks are rounded up, 
        and then each of the attacks is treated as follows to see how many 
        produce shots, then goals: 

  (iv)  Attacks have first to beat the Sw (if playing!).  For each attack,
        there is a percentage chance of it being stopped equal to:
              30 + (Sw level x 2) % 
        (eg a level 10 Sw stops 30+10x2=50% of attacks.) Attacks passing the 
        Sw become shots.

  (v)   Each shot has a 35% chance of being off-target. If a side has scored
        2 goals this rises to 40%, then by a further 5% after each goal scored,
        to a maximum of 75%. This is to curb ridiculous scorelines (with luck!)

  (vi)  Finally, on-target shots come up against the  Gk. This is similar to 
        the Sw test, but the percentage is:
        40 + (Gk level x 2.25) % 

  Notes: If the defense is playing offside trap then the offensive team has
         their Fw attacks cut in half and theor Mf attacks doubled.

         A team choosing to PFD has 7 extra levels to split between Sw, 
         Df and Mf areas, but their attacks for each area will be halved 
         (round up fractions).

*******  PRESTON NORTH END FC ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
  AREA TOTALS             GK  Sw  Df  Mf  Fw
  -------------------------------------------
  Preston North End FC     18  15  25  24  60
  Plymouth Argyle FC       13   0  47  46  30

Preston North End FC Fw Attacks = 13 (60 - 47); result rounded up
Preston North End FC Mf Attacks = 0 ((24 - 46) / 2;  rounded up)
Preston North End FC Df Attacks = 0 ((25 - 30) / 3;  rounded up)
Preston North End FC Total Attacks = 13

1: Attack for Fw Eduardo Luna
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Plymouth Argyle FC
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 42 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 69.25% | Random number = 1.06 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
2: Attack for Fw Geovanny Arley
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Plymouth Argyle FC
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 71 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 69.25% | Random number = 92.62 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 
3: Attack for Fw Šime Sucic
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Plymouth Argyle FC
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 80 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 69.25% | Random number = 34.05 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
4: Attack for Fw Eduardo Luna
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Plymouth Argyle FC
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 26 (Shot Off Target) 
5: Attack for Fw Eduardo Luna
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Plymouth Argyle FC
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 99 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 69.25% | Random number = 55.09 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
6: Attack for Fw Eduardo Luna
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Plymouth Argyle FC
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 81 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 69.25% | Random number = 69.52 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 
7: Attack for Fw Šime Sucic
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Plymouth Argyle FC
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 45% | Random number = 71 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 69.25% | Random number = 9.96 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
8: Attack for Fw Pol Ruiz
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Plymouth Argyle FC
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 45% | Random number = 48 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 69.25% | Random number = 34.87 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
9: Attack for Fw Eduardo Luna
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Plymouth Argyle FC
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 45% | Random number = 85 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 69.25% | Random number = 64.14 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
10: Attack for Fw Šime Sucic
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Plymouth Argyle FC
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 45% | Random number = 70 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 69.25% | Random number = 73.6 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 
11: Attack for Fw Geovanny Arley
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Plymouth Argyle FC
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 50% | Random number = 30 (Shot Off Target) 
12: Attack for Fw Pol Ruiz
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Plymouth Argyle FC
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 50% | Random number = 28 (Shot Off Target) 
13: Attack for Fw Pol Ruiz
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Plymouth Argyle FC
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 50% | Random number = 95 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 69.25% | Random number = 53.35 (Shot Saved by Gk) 

*******  PLYMOUTH ARGYLE FC ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
  AREA TOTALS             GK  Sw  Df  Mf  Fw
  -------------------------------------------
  Plymouth Argyle FC       13   0  47  46  30
  Preston North End FC     18  15  25  24  60

Plymouth Argyle FC Fw Attacks = 5 (30 - 25); result rounded up
Plymouth Argyle FC Mf Attacks = 11 ((46 - 24) / 2) ; result rounded up
Plymouth Argyle FC Df Attacks = 0 ((47 - 60) / 5;  rounded up)
Plymouth Argyle FC Total Attacks = 16

1: Attack for Mf Tatsuo Itakura
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 84 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 35 (Shot Off Target) 
2: Attack for Mf Khaled Balhadj
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 39 (Sw stopped attack) 
3: Attack for Mf Oscar Bremer
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 81 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 24 (Shot Off Target) 
4: Attack for Mf Tatsuo Itakura
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 57 (Sw stopped attack) 
5: Attack for Mf Oscar Bremer
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 5 (Sw stopped attack) 
6: Attack for Mf Jorge Perez
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 62 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 8 (Shot Off Target) 
7: Attack for Mf Jorge Perez
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 32 (Sw stopped attack) 
8: Attack for Mf Oscar Bremer
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 90 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 48 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 80.5% | Random number = 34.44 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
9: Attack for Mf Oscar Bremer
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 46 (Sw stopped attack) 
10: Attack for Mf Jorge Perez
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 66 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 40 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 80.5% | Random number = 25.9 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
11: Attack for Mf Jorge Perez
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 60 (Sw stopped attack) 
12: Attack for Fw Si-Won Min-woo
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 31 (Sw stopped attack) 
13: Attack for Fw Syam Arfaoui
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 63 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 73 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 80.5% | Random number = 96.5 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 
14: Attack for Fw Si-Won Min-woo
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 89 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 31 (Shot Off Target) 
15: Attack for Fw Syam Arfaoui
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 24 (Sw stopped attack) 
16: Attack for Fw Syam Arfaoui
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 24 (Sw stopped attack) 
===============================================
     F  I  N  A  L         S  C  O  R  E
PRESTON NORTH END FC 4  -  PLYMOUTH ARGYLE FC 1
 
Match Notes
Ian bowls Rob over in this one...
Phil (Chesterfield FC) 01/20 - 6:05 AM
7 hardness from Rob, and fortunately no injuries on our side...
Ian (Preston North End FC) 01/25 - 6:13 PM
NMR is CRAZY with Hardness! This always works against us though... when other teams use Hardness against us, WE get hurt... when we use hardness against other teams, WE get hurt... grr.
Rob (Plymouth Argyle FC) 02/01 - 1:59 AM
 
 
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