(H)
Swansea City AFC
Roy Rolsten
Lincoln City FC
Mike Cabral
League Round 5
S T A R T I N G L I N E U P S
SWANSEA CITY AFC LINCOLN CITY FC
Ps Player Name SL FIT LVL Ps Player Name SL FIT LVL
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Gk Pathé Ndong 13 0 13 Gk Steven Chapuisat 14 2 16
Df Min-Seong Jung 11 2 13 Sw Woo Hyun-soo 13 2 15
Df Munir Hamdallah 11 0 11 Df Emir Selmi 19 2 21
Df Jordan Cummings 11 0 11 Df Aldair Gallardo 10 2 12
Df Shoichi Morishima 6 2 8 Mf Fabio Luis 11 2 13
Mf Kwasi Twumasi 12 1 13 Mf Marc Bürki 10 2 12
Mf Matthew Zalewski 8 1 9 Mf Trevor Relish 6 2 8
Fw Dario Vasilj 16 0 16 Fw Seung-Hyeon Tae-yong 13 2 15
Fw Yeltsin Venegas 16 2 18 Fw Thiago Araujo 10 2 12
Fw Fernando Guimarães 12 1 13 Fw Martin Jashari 10 2 12
Fw Renato Cabanas 10 0 10 Fw Jun-Yeong Ji 6 2 8
Gk Sw Df Mf Fw A R E A T O T A L S Gk Sw Df Mf Fw
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13 0 43 22 57 ROSTER TOTALS 16 15 33 33 47
0 0 0 0 0 HARDNESS 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 9 HOME ADVANTAGE 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 GREAT PERFORMANCE POINTS 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 PLAY FOR DRAW 0 0 0 0 0
=======================================================================
13 0 43 22 66 T O T A L S 16 15 33 33 47
============================================================================
============================================================================
B O O K I N G S
Each player is next given a chance for a yellow/red card. The first
number listed is the chance for the player to get the yellow/red
card while the second number shows the random number drawn. If the
random number is less than or equal to the player's yellow/red card
chance then the player is sent off. Note that the chances are as follows:
- Booking: 1.5 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness))
- Red Card: 0.25 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness)))
If a player is booked we immediately draw a second number to check
for a 'second yellow' (red card chance) resulting in a sending off.
If a player is not booked we draw a red card chance to see if the player
was given a straight red card. Note that the aforementioned formula
differs for a Gk where the formula uses the hardness points added to
your Gk area and NOT the team hardness points.
******* SWANSEA CITY AFC YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
- Team Hardness = 0
- Gk Hardness = 0
Gk Pathé Ndong: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 4.73 (no booking)
Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 88.95 (no red card)
Df Min-Seong Jung: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 12.2 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 37.2 (no red card)
Df Munir Hamdallah: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 8.35 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 53.36 (no red card)
Df Jordan Cummings: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 28.08 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 4.47 (no red card)
Df Shoichi Morishima: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 48.14 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 30.15 (no red card)
Mf Kwasi Twumasi: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 39.33 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 99.58 (no red card)
Mf Matthew Zalewski: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 32.18 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 9.58 (no red card)
Fw Dario Vasilj: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 57.31 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 10.04 (no red card)
Fw Yeltsin Venegas: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 32.73 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 13.89 (no red card)
Fw Fernando Guimarães: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 37.93 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 90.13 (no red card)
Fw Renato Cabanas: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 42.91 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 40.65 (no red card)
******* LINCOLN CITY FC YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
- Team Hardness = 0
- Gk Hardness = 0
Gk Steven Chapuisat: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 38.54 (no booking)
Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 4.06 (no red card)
Sw Woo Hyun-soo: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 78.08 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 64.11 (no red card)
Df Emir Selmi: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 78.03 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 30.69 (no red card)
Df Aldair Gallardo: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 85.1 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 19.16 (no red card)
Mf Fabio Luis: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 14.72 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 69.9 (no red card)
Mf Marc Bürki: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 22.07 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 59.0 (no red card)
Mf Trevor Relish: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 68.66 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 71.76 (no red card)
Fw Seung-Hyeon Tae-yong: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 38.45 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 59.14 (no red card)
Fw Thiago Araujo: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 69.57 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 21.51 (no red card)
Fw Martin Jashari: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 50.85 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 58.69 (no red card)
Fw Jun-Yeong Ji: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 21.96 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 66.9 (no red card)
============================================================================
============================================================================
I N J U R I E S
A major consequence of hardness is that your opponents get injured.
For each player the chance of injury is:
((your team’s hardness * .25) + (opponent’s hardness * .75) + 2.5)%.
For example if your team has a hardness of 8 and the opposition has a hardness of 4,
the chance of injury for each player would be: 2 + 3 + 2.5 or 7.5%.
The chance is halved for the opposition Gk. A player plays at half
his normal level (skill plus fitness) in the match in which he is injured.
Injured players lose fitness as a result, the amount of fitness lost being
shown on the game report in brackets. There is a 30% chance of no fitness loss,
15% chance of 1 level fitness lost, 15% of 2 levels, and a 10% chance
of each of 3,4,5, or 6 fitness levels being lost.
This fitness loss (if any) takes place at the end of the session, for
reasons of simplicity. Should a player be injured twice or
more in a session, only the most severe injury will apply.
******* SWANSEA CITY AFC CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
- Swansea City AFC Team Hardness = 0
- Lincoln City FC Team Hardness = 0
- All (except Gk) chance of injury = 2.5%
- Gk chance of injury = 1.25%
Gk Pathé Ndong: Chance of injury = 1.25% | Random number = 50.48 (no injury)
Df Min-Seong Jung: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 5.94 (no injury)
Df Munir Hamdallah: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 81.4 (no injury)
Df Jordan Cummings: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 78.36 (no injury)
Df Shoichi Morishima: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 89.98 (no injury)
Mf Kwasi Twumasi: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 26.93 (no injury)
Mf Matthew Zalewski: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 73.04 (no injury)
Fw Dario Vasilj: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 81.25 (no injury)
Fw Yeltsin Venegas: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 84.37 (no injury)
Fw Fernando Guimarães: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 84.55 (no injury)
Fw Renato Cabanas: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 54.44 (no injury)
******* LINCOLN CITY FC CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
- Lincoln City FC Team Hardness = 0
- Swansea City AFC Team Hardness = 0
- All (except Gk) chance of injury = 2.5%
- Gk chance of injury = 1.25%
Gk Steven Chapuisat: Chance of injury = 1.25% | Random number = 23.59 (no injury)
Sw Woo Hyun-soo: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 55.18 (no injury)
Df Emir Selmi: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 26.11 (no injury)
Df Aldair Gallardo: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 93.46 (no injury)
Mf Fabio Luis: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 20.45 (no injury)
Mf Marc Bürki: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 6.45 (no injury)
Mf Trevor Relish: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 70.7 (no injury)
Fw Seung-Hyeon Tae-yong: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 26.49 (no injury)
Fw Thiago Araujo: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 94.14 (no injury)
Fw Martin Jashari: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 47.93 (no injury)
Fw Jun-Yeong Ji: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 27.59 (no injury)
============================================================================
============================================================================
P E N A L T Y K I C K S
There is a 10% chance of conceding a penalty for every hardness point used.
Each 10% chance is separate, so a team could concede as many penalties as it plays
hardness points. If no hardness is used, there is still a 5% penalty chance.
The chance of a penalty being scored is:
50 + (4 x penalty takers skill) - (2 x Gk skill) % (to a maximum 95%)
******* LINCOLN CITY FC CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
- Team Hardness: 0; (1 5% chance of yielding a PK)
- PK Taker: Dario Vasilj SL 16
- Defending Gk: Steven Chapuisat SL 14
intRndPk = 62
1: Chance of PK occurring = 5% | Random number = 62 (no penalty kick)
******* SWANSEA CITY AFC CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
- Team Hardness: 0; (1 5% chance of yielding a PK)
- PK Taker: Emir Selmi SL 19
- Defending Gk: Pathé Ndong SL 13
intRndPk = 2
1: Chance of PK occurring = 5% | Random number = 2 (PENALTY KICK!)
Chance of scoring = 95% | Random number = 68 (PENALTY KICK GOOOAAALLL!!!)
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A T T A C K I N G C H A N C E S & S H O T S
(i) If team A's Fw area total is greater than team B's Df area total,
then A earns a number of attacks equal to the difference.
Note: A Sw does NOT add his levels to the Df in this league!
(ii) The team with the highest Mf area total gets attacks equal to half
the difference.
(iii) If team A's Df area total is greater than team B's Fw total, then
team A earns a number of attacks equal to one fifth of the difference.
If team A is playing a sweeper behind the defence, this rises to one
third of the difference. All fractions of attacks are rounded up,
and then each of the attacks is treated as follows to see how many
produce shots, then goals:
(iv) Attacks have first to beat the Sw (if playing!). For each attack,
there is a percentage chance of it being stopped equal to:
30 + (Sw level x 2) %
(eg a level 10 Sw stops 30+10x2=50% of attacks.) Attacks passing the
Sw become shots.
(v) Each shot has a 35% chance of being off-target. If a side has scored
2 goals this rises to 40%, then by a further 5% after each goal scored,
to a maximum of 75%. This is to curb ridiculous scorelines (with luck!)
(vi) Finally, on-target shots come up against the Gk. This is similar to
the Sw test, but the percentage is:
40 + (Gk level x 2.25) %
Notes: If the defense is playing offside trap then the offensive team has
their Fw attacks cut in half and theor Mf attacks doubled.
A team choosing to PFD has 7 extra levels to split between Sw,
Df and Mf areas, but their attacks for each area will be halved
(round up fractions).
******* SWANSEA CITY AFC ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
AREA TOTALS GK Sw Df Mf Fw
-------------------------------------------
Swansea City AFC 13 0 43 22 66
Lincoln City FC 16 15 33 33 47
Swansea City AFC Fw Attacks = 33 (66 - 33); result rounded up
Swansea City AFC Mf Attacks = 0 ((22 - 33) / 2; rounded up)
Swansea City AFC Df Attacks = 0 ((43 - 47) / 5; rounded up)
Swansea City AFC Total Attacks = 33
1: Attack for Fw Yeltsin Venegas
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 42 (Sw stopped attack)
2: Attack for Fw Yeltsin Venegas
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 69 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 18 (Shot Off Target)
3: Attack for Fw Fernando Guimarães
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 99 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 70 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 76.0% | Random number = 17.6 (Shot Saved by Gk)
4: Attack for Fw Renato Cabanas
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 89 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 31 (Shot Off Target)
5: Attack for Fw Fernando Guimarães
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 77 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 35 (Shot Off Target)
6: Attack for Fw Renato Cabanas
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 52 (Sw stopped attack)
7: Attack for Fw Fernando Guimarães
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 76 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 97 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 76.0% | Random number = 65.1 (Shot Saved by Gk)
8: Attack for Fw Fernando Guimarães
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 47 (Sw stopped attack)
9: Attack for Fw Fernando Guimarães
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 34 (Sw stopped attack)
10: Attack for Fw Fernando Guimarães
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 78 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 47 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 76.0% | Random number = 98.28 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!)
11: Attack for Fw Yeltsin Venegas
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 53 (Sw stopped attack)
12: Attack for Fw Yeltsin Venegas
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 87 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 29 (Shot Off Target)
13: Attack for Fw Fernando Guimarães
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 87 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 65 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 76.0% | Random number = 90.11 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!)
14: Attack for Fw Renato Cabanas
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 58 (Sw stopped attack)
15: Attack for Fw Yeltsin Venegas
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 59 (Sw stopped attack)
16: Attack for Fw Fernando Guimarães
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 17 (Sw stopped attack)
17: Attack for Fw Dario Vasilj
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 74 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 46 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 76.0% | Random number = 44.47 (Shot Saved by Gk)
18: Attack for Fw Dario Vasilj
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 27 (Sw stopped attack)
19: Attack for Fw Dario Vasilj
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 33 (Sw stopped attack)
20: Attack for Fw Yeltsin Venegas
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 93 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 55 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 76.0% | Random number = 29.82 (Shot Saved by Gk)
21: Attack for Fw Renato Cabanas
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 98 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 44 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 76.0% | Random number = 49.02 (Shot Saved by Gk)
22: Attack for Fw Renato Cabanas
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 41 (Sw stopped attack)
23: Attack for Fw Yeltsin Venegas
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 24 (Sw stopped attack)
24: Attack for Fw Renato Cabanas
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 1 (Sw stopped attack)
25: Attack for Fw Fernando Guimarães
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 90 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 15 (Shot Off Target)
26: Attack for Fw Dario Vasilj
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 32 (Sw stopped attack)
27: Attack for Fw Renato Cabanas
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 36 (Sw stopped attack)
28: Attack for Fw Yeltsin Venegas
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 98 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 77 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 76.0% | Random number = 14.5 (Shot Saved by Gk)
29: Attack for Fw Dario Vasilj
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 34 (Sw stopped attack)
30: Attack for Fw Dario Vasilj
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 51 (Sw stopped attack)
31: Attack for Fw Fernando Guimarães
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 56 (Sw stopped attack)
32: Attack for Fw Dario Vasilj
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 87 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 47 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 76.0% | Random number = 20.29 (Shot Saved by Gk)
33: Attack for Fw Fernando Guimarães
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 62 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 67 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 76.0% | Random number = 24.44 (Shot Saved by Gk)
******* LINCOLN CITY FC ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
AREA TOTALS GK Sw Df Mf Fw
-------------------------------------------
Lincoln City FC 16 15 33 33 47
Swansea City AFC 13 0 43 22 66
Lincoln City FC Fw Attacks = 4 (47 - 43); result rounded up
Lincoln City FC Mf Attacks = 6 ((33 - 22) / 2) ; result rounded up
Lincoln City FC Df Attacks = 0 ((33 - 66) / 3; rounded up)
Lincoln City FC Total Attacks = 10
1: Attack for Mf Fabio Luis
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Swansea City AFC
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 19 (Shot Off Target)
2: Attack for Mf Marc Bürki
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Swansea City AFC
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 92 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 69.25% | Random number = 86.77 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!)
3: Attack for Mf Trevor Relish
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Swansea City AFC
Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 97 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 69.25% | Random number = 23.82 (Shot Saved by Gk)
4: Attack for Mf Fabio Luis
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Swansea City AFC
Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 13 (Shot Off Target)
5: Attack for Mf Trevor Relish
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Swansea City AFC
Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 19 (Shot Off Target)
6: Attack for Mf Trevor Relish
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Swansea City AFC
Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 43 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 69.25% | Random number = 80.65 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!)
7: Attack for Fw Martin Jashari
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Swansea City AFC
Chance of Shot Off Target = 45% | Random number = 22 (Shot Off Target)
8: Attack for Fw Martin Jashari
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Swansea City AFC
Chance of Shot Off Target = 45% | Random number = 39 (Shot Off Target)
9: Attack for Fw Thiago Araujo
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Swansea City AFC
Chance of Shot Off Target = 45% | Random number = 26 (Shot Off Target)
10: Attack for Fw Thiago Araujo
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Swansea City AFC
Chance of Shot Off Target = 45% | Random number = 84 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 69.25% | Random number = 96.54 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!)
===============================================
F I N A L S C O R E
SWANSEA CITY AFC 2 - LINCOLN CITY FC 4
Match Notes
Love all the new predictive stuff, tour de force Al!
Mike (Lincoln City FC) 05/30 - 5:39 PM
No sure I like what they have to say about LIN here, we are going to need some road wins to have any chance to promote his season.
Mike (Lincoln City FC) 05/30 - 5:40 PM
Best of luck, Roy!
Mike (Lincoln City FC) 05/30 - 5:40 PM
Four goals away from home. Lincoln didn't come to Swansea for a day out, they came for three points and took them proper.
Olmec Head Ray (Blyth Spartans AFC) 05/30 - 6:31 PM