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Brighton & Hove Albion
Brian Beerman
 
Derby County
Martyn Hathaway
 
 
League Round 4
 
 
 
 

S  T  A  R  T  I  N  G      L  I  N  E  U  P  S

BRIGHTON & HOVE ALBION                     DERBY COUNTY

Ps Player Name            SL  FIT  LVL     Ps Player Name            SL  FIT  LVL
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gk Ethan Maddison         15    2   17     Gk Carlos Ferreto          3    2    5
Sw Bradley Perry          12    2   14     Df Kwadwo Danlad          11    0   11
Df Jason McDiarmid        10    1   11     Df Federico Sorin          9    0    9
Df Federico Zanetti       10    2   12     Df Alex Hassan             7    1    8
Df Marc-Vivien Djemba     10    0   10     Df Rodrigo de Corona       7    2    9
Mf Tammaro Pedrini        12    0   12     Df Andrew Vaughan          3    2    5
Mf Minki Sung-yeung       10    2   12     Mf Krystian Sobolewski    10    0   10
Mf Yuriy Taran             9    1   10     Mf Enoch Gyan              6    2    8
Fw Ruben Gutiérrez        17    2   19     Mf Martin Scholes          3    2    5
Fw Elias Mayer            11    2   13     Fw Roque Ramos            10    0   10
Fw Ji-Hun Min              6    2    8     Fw Donal O'Moore           6    2    8

      Gk Sw Df Mf Fw   A R E A  T O T A L S    Gk Sw Df Mf Fw
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
      17 14 33 34 40        ROSTER TOTALS       5  0 42 23 18    
       1  0  0  0  0          HARDNESS          0  0  0  2  0    
       0  0  0  0  9       HOME ADVANTAGE       0  0  0  0  0    
       0  0  0  0  0  GREAT PERFORMANCE POINTS  0  0  0  0  0    
       0  0  0  0  0        PLAY FOR DRAW       0  0  0  0  0    
=======================================================================
      18 14 33 34 49         T O T A L S        5  0 42 25 18    

============================================================================
============================================================================
B  O  O  K  I  N  G  S

Each player is next given a chance for a yellow/red card.  The first
number listed is the chance for the player to get the yellow/red
card while the second number shows the random number drawn.  If the 
random number is less than or equal to the player's yellow/red card 
chance then the player is sent off.  Note that the chances are as follows:
	- Booking: 1.5 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness))
	- Red Card: 0.25 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness)))

If a player is booked we immediately draw a second number to check
for a 'second yellow' (red card chance) resulting in a sending off.
If a player is not booked we draw a red card chance to see if the player
was given a straight red card.  Note that the aforementioned formula
differs for a Gk where the formula uses the hardness points added to
your Gk area and NOT the team hardness points.

*******  BRIGHTON & HOVE ALBION YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
   - Team Hardness = 1
   - Gk   Hardness = 1

Gk Ethan Maddison: Chance of booking = 6.75% | Random number = 96.85 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.0% | Random number = 0.18 (no red card)

Sw Bradley Perry: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 10.93 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 14.61 (no red card)

Df Jason McDiarmid: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 46.23 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 6.71 (no red card)

Df Federico Zanetti: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 54.62 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 31.04 (no red card)

Df Marc-Vivien Djemba: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 24.48 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 16.48 (no red card)

Mf Tammaro Pedrini: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 46.52 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 32.25 (no red card)

Mf Minki Sung-yeung: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 72.31 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 41.66 (no red card)

Mf Yuriy Taran: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 1.99 (BOOKED!) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 8.48 (no second yellow)

Fw Ruben Gutiérrez: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 61.94 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 96.83 (no red card)

Fw Elias Mayer: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 91.03 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 48.6 (no red card)

Fw Ji-Hun Min: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 98.05 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 59.89 (no red card)

*******  DERBY COUNTY YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
   - Team Hardness = 2
   - Gk   Hardness = 0

Gk Carlos Ferreto: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 94.7 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 77.71 (no red card)

Df Kwadwo Danlad: Chance of booking = 7.5% | Random number = 86.68 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.25% | Random number = 22.22 (no red card)

Df Federico Sorin: Chance of booking = 7.5% | Random number = 60.88 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.25% | Random number = 70.6 (no red card)

Df Alex Hassan: Chance of booking = 7.5% | Random number = 62.52 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.25% | Random number = 61.88 (no red card)

Df Rodrigo de Corona: Chance of booking = 7.5% | Random number = 22.83 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.25% | Random number = 48.11 (no red card)

Df Andrew Vaughan: Chance of booking = 7.5% | Random number = 58.75 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.25% | Random number = 36.57 (no red card)

Mf Krystian Sobolewski: Chance of booking = 7.5% | Random number = 56.33 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.25% | Random number = 11.36 (no red card)

Mf Enoch Gyan: Chance of booking = 7.5% | Random number = 78.56 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.25% | Random number = 30.09 (no red card)

Mf Martin Scholes: Chance of booking = 7.5% | Random number = 67.06 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.25% | Random number = 39.25 (no red card)

Fw Roque Ramos: Chance of booking = 7.5% | Random number = 40.93 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.25% | Random number = 37.71 (no red card)

Fw Donal O'Moore: Chance of booking = 7.5% | Random number = 96.07 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.25% | Random number = 94.98 (no red card)
============================================================================
============================================================================
I  N  J  U  R  I  E  S

A major consequence of hardness is that your opponents get injured. 
For each player the chance of injury is:   
  ((your team’s hardness * .25) + (opponent’s hardness * .75) + 2.5)%.
    For example if your team has a hardness of 8 and the opposition has a hardness of 4,
    the chance of injury for each player would be: 2 + 3 + 2.5 or 7.5%.

The chance is halved for the opposition Gk. A player plays at half 
his normal level (skill plus fitness) in the match in which he is injured.

Injured players lose fitness as a result, the amount of fitness lost being
shown on the game report in brackets. There is a 30% chance of no fitness loss,
15% chance of 1 level fitness lost, 15% of 2 levels, and a 10% chance
of each of 3,4,5, or 6 fitness levels being lost. 
This fitness loss (if any) takes place at the end of the session, for 
reasons of simplicity. Should a player be injured twice or
more in a session, only the most severe injury will apply.


*******  BRIGHTON & HOVE ALBION CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
   - Brighton & Hove Albion Team Hardness = 1
   - Derby County Team Hardness = 2
   - All (except Gk) chance of injury = 4.25%
   - Gk chance of injury = 2.12%
Gk Ethan Maddison: Chance of injury = 2.12% | Random number = 32.07 (no injury) 
Sw Bradley Perry: Chance of injury = 4.25% | Random number = 86.01 (no injury) 
Df Jason McDiarmid: Chance of injury = 4.25% | Random number = 35.86 (no injury) 
Df Federico Zanetti: Chance of injury = 4.25% | Random number = 45.04 (no injury) 
Df Marc-Vivien Djemba: Chance of injury = 4.25% | Random number = 62.31 (no injury) 
Mf Tammaro Pedrini: Chance of injury = 4.25% | Random number = 71.91 (no injury) 
Mf Minki Sung-yeung: Chance of injury = 4.25% | Random number = 14.84 (no injury) 
Mf Yuriy Taran: Chance of injury = 4.25% | Random number = 69.97 (no injury) 
Fw Ruben Gutiérrez: Chance of injury = 4.25% | Random number = 33.91 (no injury) 
Fw Elias Mayer: Chance of injury = 4.25% | Random number = 9.35 (no injury) 
Fw Ji-Hun Min: Chance of injury = 4.25% | Random number = 71.75 (no injury) 

*******  DERBY COUNTY CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
   - Derby County Team Hardness = 2
   - Brighton & Hove Albion Team Hardness = 1
   - All (except Gk) chance of injury = 3.75%
   - Gk chance of injury = 1.87%
Gk Carlos Ferreto: Chance of injury = 1.87% | Random number = 9.25 (no injury) 
Df Kwadwo Danlad: Chance of injury = 3.75% | Random number = 65.32 (no injury) 
Df Federico Sorin: Chance of injury = 3.75% | Random number = 53.62 (no injury) 
Df Alex Hassan: Chance of injury = 3.75% | Random number = 21.77 (no injury) 
Df Rodrigo de Corona: Chance of injury = 3.75% | Random number = 31.02 (no injury) 
Df Andrew Vaughan: Chance of injury = 3.75% | Random number = 32.7 (no injury) 
Mf Krystian Sobolewski: Chance of injury = 3.75% | Random number = 78.8 (no injury) 
Mf Enoch Gyan: Chance of injury = 3.75% | Random number = 67.14 (no injury) 
Mf Martin Scholes: Chance of injury = 3.75% | Random number = 51.9 (no injury) 
Fw Roque Ramos: Chance of injury = 3.75% | Random number = 29.02 (no injury) 
Fw Donal O'Moore: Chance of injury = 3.75% | Random number = 15.75 (no injury) 
============================================================================
============================================================================
P  E  N  A  L  T  Y     K  I  C  K  S

There is a 10% chance of conceding a penalty for every hardness point used.
Each 10% chance is separate, so a team could concede as many penalties as it plays
hardness points. If no hardness is used, there is still a 5% penalty chance. 
The chance of a penalty being scored is: 
  50 + (4 x penalty takers skill) - (2 x Gk skill)  %    (to a maximum 95%)

*******  DERBY COUNTY CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
   - Team Hardness: 2; (2 10% chances of yielding PKs)
   - PK Taker: Ruben Gutiérrez SL 17
   - Defending Gk: Carlos Ferreto SL 3

1: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 37 (no penalty kick)
2: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 81 (no penalty kick)

*******  BRIGHTON & HOVE ALBION CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
   - Team Hardness: 1; (1 10% chance of yielding a PK)
   - PK Taker: Kwadwo Danlad SL 11
   - Defending Gk: Ethan Maddison SL 15

1: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 96 (no penalty kick)
============================================================================
============================================================================
A  T  T  A  C  K  I  N  G      C  H  A  N  C  E  S      &      S  H  O  T  S

  (i)   If team A's Fw area total is greater than team B's Df area total, 
        then A earns a number of attacks equal to the difference.
        Note: A Sw  does NOT add his levels to the Df in this league! 

  (ii)  The team with the highest Mf area total gets attacks equal to half
        the difference.

  (iii) If team A's Df area total is greater than team B's Fw total, then  
        team A earns a number of attacks equal to one fifth of the difference.
        If team A is playing a sweeper behind the defence, this rises to one 
        third of the difference.  All fractions of attacks are rounded up, 
        and then each of the attacks is treated as follows to see how many 
        produce shots, then goals: 

  (iv)  Attacks have first to beat the Sw (if playing!).  For each attack,
        there is a percentage chance of it being stopped equal to:
              30 + (Sw level x 2) % 
        (eg a level 10 Sw stops 30+10x2=50% of attacks.) Attacks passing the 
        Sw become shots.

  (v)   Each shot has a 35% chance of being off-target. If a side has scored
        2 goals this rises to 40%, then by a further 5% after each goal scored,
        to a maximum of 75%. This is to curb ridiculous scorelines (with luck!)

  (vi)  Finally, on-target shots come up against the  Gk. This is similar to 
        the Sw test, but the percentage is:
        40 + (Gk level x 2.25) % 

  Notes: If the defense is playing offside trap then the offensive team has
         their Fw attacks cut in half and theor Mf attacks doubled.

         A team choosing to PFD has 7 extra levels to split between Sw, 
         Df and Mf areas, but their attacks for each area will be halved 
         (round up fractions).

*******  BRIGHTON & HOVE ALBION ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
  AREA TOTALS             GK  Sw  Df  Mf  Fw
  -------------------------------------------
  Brighton & Hove Albion   18  14  33  34  49
  Derby County             5   0  42  25  18

Brighton & Hove Albion Fw Attacks = 7 (49 - 42); result rounded up
Brighton & Hove Albion Mf Attacks = 5 ((34 - 25) / 2) ; result rounded up
Brighton & Hove Albion Df Attacks = 5 ((33 - 18) / 3); result rounded up
Brighton & Hove Albion Total Attacks = 17

1: Attack for Df Marc-Vivien Djemba
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Derby County
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 16 (Shot Off Target) 
2: Attack for Df Federico Zanetti
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Derby County
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 96 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 51.25% | Random number = 35.35 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
3: Attack for Df Jason McDiarmid
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Derby County
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 49 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 51.25% | Random number = 78.87 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 
4: Attack for Df Jason McDiarmid
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Derby County
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 10 (Shot Off Target) 
5: Attack for Df Marc-Vivien Djemba
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Derby County
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 80 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 51.25% | Random number = 98.74 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 
6: Attack for Mf Yuriy Taran
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Derby County
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 26 (Shot Off Target) 
7: Attack for Mf Yuriy Taran
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Derby County
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 35 (Shot Off Target) 
8: Attack for Mf Tammaro Pedrini
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Derby County
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 32 (Shot Off Target) 
9: Attack for Mf Minki Sung-yeung
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Derby County
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 45 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 51.25% | Random number = 28.08 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
10: Attack for Mf Tammaro Pedrini
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Derby County
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 13 (Shot Off Target) 
11: Attack for Fw Ruben Gutiérrez
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Derby County
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 47 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 51.25% | Random number = 51.86 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 
12: Attack for Fw Elias Mayer
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Derby County
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 45% | Random number = 16 (Shot Off Target) 
13: Attack for Fw Ruben Gutiérrez
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Derby County
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 45% | Random number = 75 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 51.25% | Random number = 23.62 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
14: Attack for Fw Ji-Hun Min
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Derby County
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 45% | Random number = 8 (Shot Off Target) 
15: Attack for Fw Elias Mayer
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Derby County
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 45% | Random number = 79 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 51.25% | Random number = 64.7 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 
16: Attack for Fw Ji-Hun Min
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Derby County
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 50% | Random number = 18 (Shot Off Target) 
17: Attack for Fw Ji-Hun Min
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Derby County
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 50% | Random number = 91 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 51.25% | Random number = 26.43 (Shot Saved by Gk) 

*******  DERBY COUNTY ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
  AREA TOTALS             GK  Sw  Df  Mf  Fw
  -------------------------------------------
  Derby County             5   0  42  25  18
  Brighton & Hove Albion   18  14  33  34  49

Derby County Fw Attacks = 0 (18 - 33)
Derby County Mf Attacks = 0 ((25 - 34) / 2;  rounded up)
Derby County Df Attacks = 0 ((42 - 49) / 5;  rounded up)
Derby County Total Attacks = 0

===============================================
     F  I  N  A  L         S  C  O  R  E
BRIGHTON & HOVE ALBION 4  -  DERBY COUNTY 0
 
Match Notes
Maybe HA is enough to get three here. Maybe....
Brian (Brighton & Hove Albion) 01/20 - 9:31 PM
Good strategy here, Martyn. I think we got lucky w/ 4 goals.
Brian (Brighton & Hove Albion) 01/27 - 6:27 PM
 
 
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