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Saturday, February 24th, 2024 - 03:26:39 AM (gmt)
 
ball MSWL UNITED ① Season 47 // Landing
 
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S  T  A  R  T  I  N  G      L  I  N  E  U  P  S

BRISTOL CITY FC                            CARLISLE UNITED

Ps Player Name            SL  FIT  LVL     Ps Player Name            SL  FIT  LVL
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gk Alberto Flores         13    2   15     Gk Dara Hays              13    2   15
Df Luiz Correia           10    2   12     Sw Cristhian Dybala       11    2   13
Df Cadwaladr Lewis         7    2    9     Df Kristoffer Lagerbäck   12    1   13
Df Trevor Milner           7    0    7     Df Owen Sansom            12    0   12
Df Adam Miles              5    1    6     Df Toshihiro Nakamura      6    2    8
Mf Isaac Semenyo           7    2    9     Mf Duško Kolomyets        13    0   13
Mf Jakob Enevoldsen        7    1    8     Mf Jacek Frankowski        6    2    8
Mf Alex James              6    2    8     Fw Noah Zimmermann        15    1   16
Mf Efe Akpan               3    2    5     Fw Salem Bejaoui          11    1   12
Fw Lee Scott               7    0    7     Fw Ellis Dury             11    0   11
Fw Bailey Ritchie          7    1    8     Fw Takeshi Fukunishi       6    2    8

      Gk Sw Df Mf Fw   A R E A  T O T A L S    Gk Sw Df Mf Fw
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
      15  0 34 30 15        ROSTER TOTALS      15 13 33 21 47    
       1  0  0  0  0          HARDNESS          0  0  0  0  0    
       0  0  0  9  0       HOME ADVANTAGE       0  0  0  0  0    
       0  0  0  0  0  GREAT PERFORMANCE POINTS  0  0  0  3  0    
       0  0  0  0  0        PLAY FOR DRAW       0  0  0  0  0    
=======================================================================
      16  0 34 39 15         T O T A L S       15 13 33 24 47    

============================================================================
============================================================================
B  O  O  K  I  N  G  S

Each player is next given a chance for a yellow/red card.  The first
number listed is the chance for the player to get the yellow/red
card while the second number shows the random number drawn.  If the 
random number is less than or equal to the player's yellow/red card 
chance then the player is sent off.  Note that the chances are as follows:
	- Booking: 1.5 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness))
	- Red Card: 0.25 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness)))

If a player is booked we immediately draw a second number to check
for a 'second yellow' (red card chance) resulting in a sending off.
If a player is not booked we draw a red card chance to see if the player
was given a straight red card.  Note that the aforementioned formula
differs for a Gk where the formula uses the hardness points added to
your Gk area and NOT the team hardness points.

*******  BRISTOL CITY FC YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
   - Team Hardness = 1
   - Gk   Hardness = 1

Gk Alberto Flores: Chance of booking = 6.75% | Random number = 93.62 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.0% | Random number = 14.18 (no red card)

Df Luiz Correia: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 93.89 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 66.35 (no red card)

Df Cadwaladr Lewis: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 53.03 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 15.39 (no red card)

Df Trevor Milner: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 53.19 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 18.5 (no red card)

Df Adam Miles: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 34.74 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 30.66 (no red card)

Mf Isaac Semenyo: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 15.1 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 74.29 (no red card)

Mf Jakob Enevoldsen: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 54.27 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 16.37 (no red card)

Mf Alex James: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 68.88 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 12.71 (no red card)

Mf Efe Akpan: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 28.73 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 85.81 (no red card)

Fw Lee Scott: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 24.42 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 60.63 (no red card)

Fw Bailey Ritchie: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 12.28 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 77.99 (no red card)

*******  CARLISLE UNITED YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
   - Team Hardness = 0
   - Gk   Hardness = 0

Gk Dara Hays: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 24.16 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 22.8 (no red card)

Sw Cristhian Dybala: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 51.43 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 87.75 (no red card)

Df Kristoffer Lagerbäck: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 27.89 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 4.39 (no red card)

Df Owen Sansom: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 32.0 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 48.79 (no red card)

Df Toshihiro Nakamura: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 75.19 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 33.09 (no red card)

Mf Duško Kolomyets: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 68.85 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 3.34 (no red card)

Mf Jacek Frankowski: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 88.61 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 16.76 (no red card)

Fw Noah Zimmermann: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 81.96 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 24.68 (no red card)

Fw Salem Bejaoui: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 8.81 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 95.43 (no red card)

Fw Ellis Dury: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 65.67 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 68.08 (no red card)

Fw Takeshi Fukunishi: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 6.76 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 73.94 (no red card)
============================================================================
============================================================================
I  N  J  U  R  I  E  S

A major consequence of hardness is that your opponents get injured. 
For each player the chance of injury is:   
  ((your team’s hardness * .25) + (opponent’s hardness * .75) + 2.5)%.
    For example if your team has a hardness of 8 and the opposition has a hardness of 4,
    the chance of injury for each player would be: 2 + 3 + 2.5 or 7.5%.

The chance is halved for the opposition Gk. A player plays at half 
his normal level (skill plus fitness) in the match in which he is injured.

Injured players lose fitness as a result, the amount of fitness lost being
shown on the game report in brackets. There is a 30% chance of no fitness loss,
15% chance of 1 level fitness lost, 15% of 2 levels, and a 10% chance
of each of 3,4,5, or 6 fitness levels being lost. 
This fitness loss (if any) takes place at the end of the session, for 
reasons of simplicity. Should a player be injured twice or
more in a session, only the most severe injury will apply.


*******  BRISTOL CITY FC CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
   - Bristol City FC Team Hardness = 1
   - Carlisle United Team Hardness = 0
   - All (except Gk) chance of injury = 2.75%
   - Gk chance of injury = 1.37%
Gk Alberto Flores: Chance of injury = 1.37% | Random number = 66.2 (no injury) 
Df Luiz Correia: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 44.58 (no injury) 
Df Cadwaladr Lewis: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 42.02 (no injury) 
Df Trevor Milner: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 20.67 (no injury) 
Df Adam Miles: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 19.8 (no injury) 
Mf Isaac Semenyo: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 76.11 (no injury) 
Mf Jakob Enevoldsen: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 89.83 (no injury) 
Mf Alex James: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 43.67 (no injury) 
Mf Efe Akpan: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 77.28 (no injury) 
Fw Lee Scott: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 34.84 (no injury) 
Fw Bailey Ritchie: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 24.96 (no injury) 

*******  CARLISLE UNITED CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
   - Carlisle United Team Hardness = 0
   - Bristol City FC Team Hardness = 1
   - All (except Gk) chance of injury = 3.25%
   - Gk chance of injury = 1.62%
Gk Dara Hays: Chance of injury = 1.62% | Random number = 52.02 (no injury) 
Sw Cristhian Dybala: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 76.84 (no injury) 
Df Kristoffer Lagerbäck: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 83.53 (no injury) 
Df Owen Sansom: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 55.2 (no injury) 
Df Toshihiro Nakamura: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 7.04 (no injury) 
Mf Duško Kolomyets: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 62.24 (no injury) 
Mf Jacek Frankowski: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 72.4 (no injury) 
Fw Noah Zimmermann: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 25.73 (no injury) 
Fw Salem Bejaoui: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 37.76 (no injury) 
Fw Ellis Dury: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 14.17 (no injury) 
Fw Takeshi Fukunishi: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 35.11 (no injury) 
============================================================================
============================================================================
P  E  N  A  L  T  Y     K  I  C  K  S

There is a 10% chance of conceding a penalty for every hardness point used.
Each 10% chance is separate, so a team could concede as many penalties as it plays
hardness points. If no hardness is used, there is still a 5% penalty chance. 
The chance of a penalty being scored is: 
  50 + (4 x penalty takers skill) - (2 x Gk skill)  %    (to a maximum 95%)

*******  CARLISLE UNITED CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
   - Team Hardness: 0; (1 5% chance of yielding a PK)
   - PK Taker: Luiz Correia SL 10
   - Defending Gk: Dara Hays SL 13

     intRndPk = 79
1: Chance of PK occurring = 5% | Random number = 79 (no penalty kick)

*******  BRISTOL CITY FC CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
   - Team Hardness: 1; (1 10% chance of yielding a PK)
   - PK Taker: Noah Zimmermann SL 15
   - Defending Gk: Alberto Flores SL 13

1: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 61 (no penalty kick)
============================================================================
============================================================================
A  T  T  A  C  K  I  N  G      C  H  A  N  C  E  S      &      S  H  O  T  S

  (i)   If team A's Fw area total is greater than team B's Df area total, 
        then A earns a number of attacks equal to the difference.
        Note: A Sw  does NOT add his levels to the Df in this league! 

  (ii)  The team with the highest Mf area total gets attacks equal to half
        the difference.

  (iii) If team A's Df area total is greater than team B's Fw total, then  
        team A earns a number of attacks equal to one fifth of the difference.
        If team A is playing a sweeper behind the defence, this rises to one 
        third of the difference.  All fractions of attacks are rounded up, 
        and then each of the attacks is treated as follows to see how many 
        produce shots, then goals: 

  (iv)  Attacks have first to beat the Sw (if playing!).  For each attack,
        there is a percentage chance of it being stopped equal to:
              30 + (Sw level x 2) % 
        (eg a level 10 Sw stops 30+10x2=50% of attacks.) Attacks passing the 
        Sw become shots.

  (v)   Each shot has a 35% chance of being off-target. If a side has scored
        2 goals this rises to 40%, then by a further 5% after each goal scored,
        to a maximum of 75%. This is to curb ridiculous scorelines (with luck!)

  (vi)  Finally, on-target shots come up against the  Gk. This is similar to 
        the Sw test, but the percentage is:
        40 + (Gk level x 2.25) % 

  Notes: If the defense is playing offside trap then the offensive team has
         their Fw attacks cut in half and theor Mf attacks doubled.

         A team choosing to PFD has 7 extra levels to split between Sw, 
         Df and Mf areas, but their attacks for each area will be halved 
         (round up fractions).

*******  BRISTOL CITY FC ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
  AREA TOTALS             GK  Sw  Df  Mf  Fw
  -------------------------------------------
  Bristol City FC          16   0  34  39  15
  Carlisle United          15  13  33  24  47

Bristol City FC Fw Attacks = 0 (15 - 33)
Bristol City FC Mf Attacks = 8 ((39 - 24) / 2) ; result rounded up
Bristol City FC Df Attacks = 0 ((34 - 47) / 5;  rounded up)
Bristol City FC Total Attacks = 8

1: Attack for Mf Jakob Enevoldsen
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 57 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 52 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 73.75% | Random number = 45.33 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
2: Attack for Mf Isaac Semenyo
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 98 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 84 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 73.75% | Random number = 93.85 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 
3: Attack for Mf Jakob Enevoldsen
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 51 (Sw stopped attack) 
4: Attack for Mf Isaac Semenyo
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 89 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 35 (Shot Off Target) 
5: Attack for Mf Isaac Semenyo
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 52 (Sw stopped attack) 
6: Attack for Mf Jakob Enevoldsen
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 34 (Sw stopped attack) 
7: Attack for Mf Jakob Enevoldsen
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 38 (Sw stopped attack) 
8: Attack for Mf Isaac Semenyo
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 66 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 6 (Shot Off Target) 

*******  CARLISLE UNITED ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
  AREA TOTALS             GK  Sw  Df  Mf  Fw
  -------------------------------------------
  Carlisle United          15  13  33  24  47
  Bristol City FC          16   0  34  39  15

Bristol City FC is using Offside Trap!
Carlisle United Fw Attacks = 7 (47 - 34) * 0.5 (OST Multiplier) ; result rounded up
Carlisle United Mf Attacks = 0 ((24 - 39) / 2;  rounded up)
Carlisle United Df Attacks = 6 ((33 - 15) / 3); result rounded up
Carlisle United Total Attacks = 13

1: Attack for Df Toshihiro Nakamura
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Bristol City FC
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 20 (Shot Off Target) 
2: Attack for Df Owen Sansom
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Bristol City FC
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 45 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 76.0% | Random number = 57.03 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
3: Attack for Df Owen Sansom
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Bristol City FC
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 42 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 76.0% | Random number = 95.96 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 
4: Attack for Df Kristoffer Lagerbäck
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Bristol City FC
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 55 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 76.0% | Random number = 17.76 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
5: Attack for Df Toshihiro Nakamura
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Bristol City FC
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 39 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 76.0% | Random number = 87.4 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 
6: Attack for Df Kristoffer Lagerbäck
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Bristol City FC
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 54 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 76.0% | Random number = 21.41 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
7: Attack for Fw Ellis Dury
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Bristol City FC
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 81 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 76.0% | Random number = 65.68 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
8: Attack for Fw Salem Bejaoui
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Bristol City FC
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 44 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 76.0% | Random number = 13.69 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
9: Attack for Fw Noah Zimmermann
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Bristol City FC
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 47 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 76.0% | Random number = 38.88 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
10: Attack for Fw Noah Zimmermann
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Bristol City FC
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 47 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 76.0% | Random number = 14.75 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
11: Attack for Fw Noah Zimmermann
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Bristol City FC
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 61 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 76.0% | Random number = 31.05 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
12: Attack for Fw Ellis Dury
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Bristol City FC
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 15 (Shot Off Target) 
13: Attack for Fw Takeshi Fukunishi
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Bristol City FC
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 98 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 76.0% | Random number = 68.78 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
===============================================
     F  I  N  A  L         S  C  O  R  E
BRISTOL CITY FC 1  -  CARLISLE UNITED 2
 
Match Notes
is there a prediction league pattern here?
Vick (Weston-super-Mare AFC) 02/15 - 5:38 PM
and does Phil like being the odd one out?
Vick (Weston-super-Mare AFC) 02/15 - 5:39 PM
Feeling like the most lowly of underdogs.
Dave (Carlisle United) 02/17 - 10:57 AM
No one fancies Carlisle ,expect a turnover here then 😂
Simon (Northampton Town FC) 02/17 - 8:10 PM
Well done Dave - justice done as you really should have won last week
Roger (Bristol City FC) 02/17 - 10:32 PM
Thanks Roger. Always fun upsetting the Predictions people.
Dave (Carlisle United) 02/18 - 1:04 AM
 
 
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