(H)
Cardiff City FC
Graham Wilkes
Port Vale FC
John Holden
AP Cup Round 2
S T A R T I N G L I N E U P S
CARDIFF CITY FC PORT VALE FC
Ps Player Name SL FIT LVL Ps Player Name SL FIT LVL
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Gk Jared Ferdinand 6 2 8 Gk Rafael Romero 14 0 14
Sw Gordon Coppell 7 1 8 Sw Giles Rowe 13 0 13
Df Bryan Boivin 13 2 15 Df Axel Persson 11 2 13
Df Bradley Morrissey 8 1 9 Df Kyle Clark 10 1 11
Mf Rodrigo Melo 15 1 16 Df Agostino Colombo 7 2 9
Mf Agustín Castro 7 2 9 Mf Erik Koch 13 1 14
Fw Benjamin Young 13 2 15 Mf Jared Atkinson 7 2 9
Fw Kenny Wood 11 2 13 Fw Charles Tufnel 16 1 17
Fw Paul Smith 11 1 12 Fw Federico Donati 11 2 13
Fw Paul Guibert 7 2 9 Fw Finlay Wood 11 1 12
Fw João Araújo 6 2 8 Fw Jamie Burroughs 6 2 8
Gk Sw Df Mf Fw A R E A T O T A L S Gk Sw Df Mf Fw
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
8 8 24 25 57 ROSTER TOTALS 14 13 33 23 50
0 0 0 0 0 HARDNESS 1 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 9 HOME ADVANTAGE 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 GREAT PERFORMANCE POINTS 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 PLAY FOR DRAW 0 0 0 0 0
=======================================================================
8 8 24 25 66 T O T A L S 15 13 33 23 50
============================================================================
============================================================================
B O O K I N G S
Each player is next given a chance for a yellow/red card. The first
number listed is the chance for the player to get the yellow/red
card while the second number shows the random number drawn. If the
random number is less than or equal to the player's yellow/red card
chance then the player is sent off. Note that the chances are as follows:
- Booking: 1.5 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness))
- Red Card: 0.25 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness)))
If a player is booked we immediately draw a second number to check
for a 'second yellow' (red card chance) resulting in a sending off.
If a player is not booked we draw a red card chance to see if the player
was given a straight red card. Note that the aforementioned formula
differs for a Gk where the formula uses the hardness points added to
your Gk area and NOT the team hardness points.
******* CARDIFF CITY FC YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
- Team Hardness = 0
- Gk Hardness = 0
Gk Jared Ferdinand: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 46.47 (no booking)
Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 95.09 (no red card)
Sw Gordon Coppell: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 31.6 (no booking)
Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 2.0 (no red card)
Df Bryan Boivin: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 52.19 (no booking)
Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 36.54 (no red card)
Df Bradley Morrissey: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 2.44 (BOOKED!)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 44.74 (no second yellow)
Mf Rodrigo Melo: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 60.69 (no booking)
Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 21.59 (no red card)
Mf Agustín Castro: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 22.93 (no booking)
Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 19.54 (no red card)
Fw Benjamin Young: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 95.88 (no booking)
Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 75.6 (no red card)
Fw Kenny Wood: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 44.48 (no booking)
Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 77.76 (no red card)
Fw Paul Smith: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 98.76 (no booking)
Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 94.97 (no red card)
Fw Paul Guibert: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 45.04 (no booking)
Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 69.79 (no red card)
Fw João Araújo: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 85.89 (no booking)
Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 62.67 (no red card)
******* PORT VALE FC YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
- Team Hardness = 1
- Gk Hardness = 1
Gk Rafael Romero: Chance of booking = 6.75% | Random number = 92.56 (no booking)
Chance of straight red card = 1.125% | Random number = 46.63 (no red card)
Sw Giles Rowe: Chance of booking = 6.75% | Random number = 88.1 (no booking)
Chance of straight red card = 1.12% | Random number = 98.66 (no red card)
Df Axel Persson: Chance of booking = 6.75% | Random number = 32.77 (no booking)
Chance of straight red card = 1.12% | Random number = 46.67 (no red card)
Df Kyle Clark: Chance of booking = 6.75% | Random number = 5.13 (BOOKED!)
Chance of second booking = 1.12% | Random number = 68.28 (no second yellow)
Df Agostino Colombo: Chance of booking = 6.75% | Random number = 11.02 (no booking)
Chance of straight red card = 1.12% | Random number = 42.89 (no red card)
Mf Erik Koch: Chance of booking = 6.75% | Random number = 71.78 (no booking)
Chance of straight red card = 1.12% | Random number = 97.55 (no red card)
Mf Jared Atkinson: Chance of booking = 6.75% | Random number = 65.69 (no booking)
Chance of straight red card = 1.12% | Random number = 82.54 (no red card)
Fw Charles Tufnel: Chance of booking = 6.75% | Random number = 83.97 (no booking)
Chance of straight red card = 1.12% | Random number = 63.82 (no red card)
Fw Federico Donati: Chance of booking = 6.75% | Random number = 74.19 (no booking)
Chance of straight red card = 1.12% | Random number = 76.01 (no red card)
Fw Finlay Wood: Chance of booking = 6.75% | Random number = 73.24 (no booking)
Chance of straight red card = 1.12% | Random number = 71.1 (no red card)
Fw Jamie Burroughs: Chance of booking = 6.75% | Random number = 18.35 (no booking)
Chance of straight red card = 1.12% | Random number = 47.68 (no red card)
============================================================================
============================================================================
I N J U R I E S
A major consequence of hardness is that your opponents get injured.
For each player the chance of injury is:
((your team’s hardness * .25) + (opponent’s hardness * .75) + 2.5)%.
For example if your team has a hardness of 8 and the opposition has a hardness of 4,
the chance of injury for each player would be: 2 + 3 + 2.5 or 7.5%.
The chance is halved for the opposition Gk. A player plays at half
his normal level (skill plus fitness) in the match in which he is injured.
Injured players lose fitness as a result, the amount of fitness lost being
shown on the game report in brackets. There is a 30% chance of no fitness loss,
15% chance of 1 level fitness lost, 15% of 2 levels, and a 10% chance
of each of 3,4,5, or 6 fitness levels being lost.
This fitness loss (if any) takes place at the end of the session, for
reasons of simplicity. Should a player be injured twice or
more in a session, only the most severe injury will apply.
******* CARDIFF CITY FC CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
- Cardiff City FC Team Hardness = 0
- Port Vale FC Team Hardness = 1
- All (except Gk) chance of injury = 3.25%
- Gk chance of injury = 1.62%
Gk Jared Ferdinand: Chance of injury = 1.62% | Random number = 55.24 (no injury)
Sw Gordon Coppell: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 70.75 (no injury)
Df Bryan Boivin: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 35.76 (no injury)
Df Bradley Morrissey: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 37.88 (no injury)
Mf Rodrigo Melo: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 58.34 (no injury)
Mf Agustín Castro: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 64.54 (no injury)
Fw Benjamin Young: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 93.22 (no injury)
Fw Kenny Wood: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 65.93 (no injury)
Fw Paul Smith: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 1.2 (INJURED!)
Targeted fitness lost = 3
Paul Smith is being assisted by the Physio. He will lose 2 fitness points (deducted at end of session)
Paul Smith new match skill level = 6
Paul Smith new match total level = 7
Fw Paul Guibert: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 1.3 (INJURED!)
Targeted fitness lost = 6
Paul Guibert is being assisted by the Physio. He will lose 5 fitness points (deducted at end of session)
Paul Guibert new match skill level = 4
Paul Guibert new match total level = 6
Fw João Araújo: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 39.09 (no injury)
******* PORT VALE FC CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
- Port Vale FC Team Hardness = 1
- Cardiff City FC Team Hardness = 0
- All (except Gk) chance of injury = 2.75%
- Gk chance of injury = 1.37%
Gk Rafael Romero: Chance of injury = 1.37% | Random number = 15.37 (no injury)
Sw Giles Rowe: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 55.24 (no injury)
Df Axel Persson: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 26.73 (no injury)
Df Kyle Clark: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 28.01 (no injury)
Df Agostino Colombo: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 92.96 (no injury)
Mf Erik Koch: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 94.86 (no injury)
Mf Jared Atkinson: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 91.41 (no injury)
Fw Charles Tufnel: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 52.86 (no injury)
Fw Federico Donati: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 71.4 (no injury)
Fw Finlay Wood: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 31.67 (no injury)
Fw Jamie Burroughs: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 2.08 (INJURED!)
Targeted fitness lost = 0
Jamie Burroughs is being assisted by the Physio and appears to be just fine.
============================================================================
============================================================================
P E N A L T Y K I C K S
There is a 10% chance of conceding a penalty for every hardness point used.
Each 10% chance is separate, so a team could concede as many penalties as it plays
hardness points. If no hardness is used, there is still a 5% penalty chance.
The chance of a penalty being scored is:
50 + (4 x penalty takers skill) - (2 x Gk skill) % (to a maximum 95%)
******* PORT VALE FC CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
- Team Hardness: 1; (1 10% chance of yielding a PK)
- PK Taker: Rodrigo Melo SL 15
- Defending Gk: Rafael Romero SL 14
1: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 42 (no penalty kick)
******* CARDIFF CITY FC CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
- Team Hardness: 0; (1 5% chance of yielding a PK)
- PK Taker: Charles Tufnel SL 16
- Defending Gk: Jared Ferdinand SL 6
intRndPk = 93
1: Chance of PK occurring = 5% | Random number = 93 (no penalty kick)
============================================================================
============================================================================
A T T A C K I N G C H A N C E S & S H O T S
(i) If team A's Fw area total is greater than team B's Df area total,
then A earns a number of attacks equal to the difference.
Note: A Sw does NOT add his levels to the Df in this league!
(ii) The team with the highest Mf area total gets attacks equal to half
the difference.
(iii) If team A's Df area total is greater than team B's Fw total, then
team A earns a number of attacks equal to one fifth of the difference.
If team A is playing a sweeper behind the defence, this rises to one
third of the difference. All fractions of attacks are rounded up,
and then each of the attacks is treated as follows to see how many
produce shots, then goals:
(iv) Attacks have first to beat the Sw (if playing!). For each attack,
there is a percentage chance of it being stopped equal to:
30 + (Sw level x 2) %
(eg a level 10 Sw stops 30+10x2=50% of attacks.) Attacks passing the
Sw become shots.
(v) Each shot has a 35% chance of being off-target. If a side has scored
2 goals this rises to 40%, then by a further 5% after each goal scored,
to a maximum of 75%. This is to curb ridiculous scorelines (with luck!)
(vi) Finally, on-target shots come up against the Gk. This is similar to
the Sw test, but the percentage is:
40 + (Gk level x 2.25) %
Notes: If the defense is playing offside trap then the offensive team has
their Fw attacks cut in half and theor Mf attacks doubled.
A team choosing to PFD has 7 extra levels to split between Sw,
Df and Mf areas, but their attacks for each area will be halved
(round up fractions).
******* CARDIFF CITY FC ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
AREA TOTALS GK Sw Df Mf Fw
-------------------------------------------
Cardiff City FC 8 8 24 25 58
Port Vale FC 15 13 33 23 50
Cardiff City FC Fw Attacks = 25 (58 - 33); result rounded up
Cardiff City FC Mf Attacks = 1 ((25 - 23) / 2) ; result rounded up
Cardiff City FC Df Attacks = 0 ((24 - 50) / 3; rounded up)
Cardiff City FC Total Attacks = 26
1: Attack for Mf Agustín Castro
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 56 (Sw stopped attack)
2: Attack for Fw Kenny Wood
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 21 (Sw stopped attack)
3: Attack for Fw Kenny Wood
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 91 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 21 (Shot Off Target)
4: Attack for Fw Kenny Wood
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 35 (Sw stopped attack)
5: Attack for Fw Kenny Wood
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 42 (Sw stopped attack)
6: Attack for Fw Paul Smith
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 45 (Sw stopped attack)
7: Attack for Fw Benjamin Young
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 20 (Sw stopped attack)
8: Attack for Fw Paul Smith
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 12 (Sw stopped attack)
9: Attack for Fw Benjamin Young
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 71 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 59 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 73.75% | Random number = 48.18 (Shot Saved by Gk)
10: Attack for Fw Benjamin Young
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 15 (Sw stopped attack)
11: Attack for Fw Kenny Wood
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 94 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 20 (Shot Off Target)
12: Attack for Fw Benjamin Young
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 33 (Sw stopped attack)
13: Attack for Fw Paul Smith
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 67 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 67 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 73.75% | Random number = 79.68 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!)
14: Attack for Fw Benjamin Young
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 18 (Sw stopped attack)
15: Attack for Fw Paul Guibert
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 80 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 49 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 73.75% | Random number = 78.7 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!)
16: Attack for Fw Benjamin Young
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 46 (Sw stopped attack)
17: Attack for Fw Benjamin Young
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 80 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 45 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 73.75% | Random number = 75.82 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!)
18: Attack for Fw Paul Smith
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 40 (Sw stopped attack)
19: Attack for Fw Paul Smith
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 36 (Sw stopped attack)
20: Attack for Fw João Araújo
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 15 (Sw stopped attack)
21: Attack for Fw Kenny Wood
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 65 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 45% | Random number = 84 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 73.75% | Random number = 44.14 (Shot Saved by Gk)
22: Attack for Fw Benjamin Young
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 88 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 45% | Random number = 96 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 73.75% | Random number = 8.13 (Shot Saved by Gk)
23: Attack for Fw Kenny Wood
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 77 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 45% | Random number = 37 (Shot Off Target)
24: Attack for Fw Benjamin Young
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 20 (Sw stopped attack)
25: Attack for Fw Benjamin Young
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 84 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 45% | Random number = 76 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 73.75% | Random number = 2.16 (Shot Saved by Gk)
26: Attack for Fw Benjamin Young
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 35 (Sw stopped attack)
******* PORT VALE FC ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
AREA TOTALS GK Sw Df Mf Fw
-------------------------------------------
Port Vale FC 15 13 33 23 50
Cardiff City FC 8 8 24 25 58
Port Vale FC Fw Attacks = 26 (50 - 24); result rounded up
Port Vale FC Mf Attacks = 0 ((23 - 25) / 2; rounded up)
Port Vale FC Df Attacks = 0 ((33 - 58) / 3; rounded up)
Port Vale FC Total Attacks = 26
1: Attack for Fw Finlay Wood
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 46% | Random number = 1 (Sw stopped attack)
2: Attack for Fw Charles Tufnel
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 46% | Random number = 53 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 67 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 58.0% | Random number = 46.99 (Shot Saved by Gk)
3: Attack for Fw Federico Donati
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 46% | Random number = 21 (Sw stopped attack)
4: Attack for Fw Charles Tufnel
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 46% | Random number = 5 (Sw stopped attack)
5: Attack for Fw Charles Tufnel
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 46% | Random number = 35 (Sw stopped attack)
6: Attack for Fw Federico Donati
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 46% | Random number = 48 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 27 (Shot Off Target)
7: Attack for Fw Charles Tufnel
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 46% | Random number = 15 (Sw stopped attack)
8: Attack for Fw Finlay Wood
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 46% | Random number = 100 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 69 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 58.0% | Random number = 50.08 (Shot Saved by Gk)
9: Attack for Fw Jamie Burroughs
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 46% | Random number = 30 (Sw stopped attack)
10: Attack for Fw Federico Donati
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 46% | Random number = 61 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 46 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 58.0% | Random number = 3.34 (Shot Saved by Gk)
11: Attack for Fw Charles Tufnel
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 46% | Random number = 17 (Sw stopped attack)
12: Attack for Fw Federico Donati
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 46% | Random number = 87 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 1 (Shot Off Target)
13: Attack for Fw Jamie Burroughs
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 46% | Random number = 100 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 28 (Shot Off Target)
14: Attack for Fw Federico Donati
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 46% | Random number = 62 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 55 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 58.0% | Random number = 50.43 (Shot Saved by Gk)
15: Attack for Fw Charles Tufnel
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 46% | Random number = 48 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 30 (Shot Off Target)
16: Attack for Fw Finlay Wood
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 46% | Random number = 91 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 35 (Shot Off Target)
17: Attack for Fw Federico Donati
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 46% | Random number = 38 (Sw stopped attack)
18: Attack for Fw Jamie Burroughs
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 46% | Random number = 15 (Sw stopped attack)
19: Attack for Fw Jamie Burroughs
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 46% | Random number = 6 (Sw stopped attack)
20: Attack for Fw Finlay Wood
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 46% | Random number = 35 (Sw stopped attack)
21: Attack for Fw Finlay Wood
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 46% | Random number = 52 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 14 (Shot Off Target)
22: Attack for Fw Federico Donati
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 46% | Random number = 54 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 66 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 58.0% | Random number = 73.5 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!)
23: Attack for Fw Charles Tufnel
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 46% | Random number = 99 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 1 (Shot Off Target)
24: Attack for Fw Jamie Burroughs
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 46% | Random number = 87 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 34 (Shot Off Target)
25: Attack for Fw Federico Donati
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 46% | Random number = 41 (Sw stopped attack)
26: Attack for Fw Federico Donati
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 46% | Random number = 37 (Sw stopped attack)
===============================================
F I N A L S C O R E
CARDIFF CITY FC 3 - PORT VALE FC 1
Match Notes
...didn't we just play Cardiff City in the AP Cup?
John (Port Vale FC) 10/09 - 10:30 PM
...yes we did, but rhetorical questions are fun
John (Port Vale FC) 10/09 - 10:31 PM
Thanks, OLMEC. Appreciated.
John (Port Vale FC) 10/16 - 9:32 PM
We had a +1.84 on expected goals. 3.88 to 2.04.
John (Port Vale FC) 10/16 - 9:32 PM
Thanks John good game. Well for me at least. We meet again next session to do it all again
Graham (Cardiff City FC) 10/17 - 12:53 PM