(H)
Carlisle United
Dave Gittins
Nottingham Forest
Steve Turner
AP Cup Round 2
S T A R T I N G L I N E U P S
CARLISLE UNITED NOTTINGHAM FOREST
Ps Player Name SL FIT LVL Ps Player Name SL FIT LVL
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Gk Gregory Reyna 13 2 15 Gk Kurt Östman 16 2 18
Sw Ramires Jesus 13 1 14 Sw Thiago Boniek 15 2 17
Df Jacob Beynon 13 2 15 Df Gualberto Burgos 12 2 14
Df Eirwyn Davey 12 2 14 Df Mbaye Dieng 10 2 12
Df Toshihiro Nakamura 10 0 10 Df Jean Courtial 7 2 9
Mf Aliyu Edet 12 2 14 Mf Bruno Freda 10 1 11
Mf Jacek Frankowski 10 1 11 Fw Abel Peeters 8 2 10
Fw Emmanuel Krzynówek 12 2 14 Mf Faustino Trotta 9 2 11
Fw Javier Gimenez 14 2 16 Fw Atef Omar 13 2 15
Fw Ki Seon-min 12 0 12 Fw Paul Dumont 16 2 18
Fw Takeshi Fukunishi 10 1 11 Fw Keiron Chamberlain 10 1 11
Gk Sw Df Mf Fw A R E A T O T A L S Gk Sw Df Mf Fw
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
15 14 39 25 53 ROSTER TOTALS 18 17 35 22 54
0 0 0 1 0 HARDNESS 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 2 7 HOME ADVANTAGE 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 GREAT PERFORMANCE POINTS 2 3 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 PLAY FOR DRAW 0 0 0 0 0
=======================================================================
15 14 39 28 60 T O T A L S 20 20 35 22 54
============================================================================
============================================================================
B O O K I N G S
Each player is next given a chance for a yellow/red card. The first
number listed is the chance for the player to get the yellow/red
card while the second number shows the random number drawn. If the
random number is less than or equal to the player's yellow/red card
chance then the player is sent off. Note that the chances are as follows:
- Booking: 1.5 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness))
- Red Card: 0.25 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness)))
If a player is booked we immediately draw a second number to check
for a 'second yellow' (red card chance) resulting in a sending off.
If a player is not booked we draw a red card chance to see if the player
was given a straight red card. Note that the aforementioned formula
differs for a Gk where the formula uses the hardness points added to
your Gk area and NOT the team hardness points.
******* CARLISLE UNITED YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
- Team Hardness = 1
- Gk Hardness = 0
Gk Gregory Reyna: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 76.51 (no booking)
Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 16.31 (no red card)
Sw Ramires Jesus: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 24.8 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 45.62 (no red card)
Df Jacob Beynon: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 31.52 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 53.5 (no red card)
Df Eirwyn Davey: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 63.75 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 79.81 (no red card)
Df Toshihiro Nakamura: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 18.26 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 45.07 (no red card)
Mf Aliyu Edet: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 90.96 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 3.06 (no red card)
Mf Jacek Frankowski: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 62.66 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 65.19 (no red card)
Fw Emmanuel Krzynówek: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 13.15 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 26.89 (no red card)
Fw Javier Gimenez: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 83.02 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 78.55 (no red card)
Fw Ki Seon-min: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 36.85 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 20.33 (no red card)
Fw Takeshi Fukunishi: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 7.05 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 80.54 (no red card)
******* NOTTINGHAM FOREST YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
- Team Hardness = 0
- Gk Hardness = 0
Gk Kurt Östman: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 8.39 (no booking)
Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 28.0 (no red card)
Sw Thiago Boniek: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 43.5 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 85.6 (no red card)
Df Gualberto Burgos: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 72.83 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 41.52 (no red card)
Df Mbaye Dieng: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 48.46 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 12.84 (no red card)
Df Jean Courtial: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 15.74 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 53.22 (no red card)
Mf Bruno Freda: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 26.33 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 30.36 (no red card)
Fw Abel Peeters: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 24.01 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 50.34 (no red card)
Mf Faustino Trotta: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 18.97 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 95.16 (no red card)
Fw Atef Omar: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 43.78 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 50.47 (no red card)
Fw Paul Dumont: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 63.94 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 91.65 (no red card)
Fw Keiron Chamberlain: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 78.23 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 36.21 (no red card)
============================================================================
============================================================================
I N J U R I E S
A major consequence of hardness is that your opponents get injured.
For each player the chance of injury is:
((your team’s hardness * .25) + (opponent’s hardness * .75) + 2.5)%.
For example if your team has a hardness of 8 and the opposition has a hardness of 4,
the chance of injury for each player would be: 2 + 3 + 2.5 or 7.5%.
The chance is halved for the opposition Gk. A player plays at half
his normal level (skill plus fitness) in the match in which he is injured.
Injured players lose fitness as a result, the amount of fitness lost being
shown on the game report in brackets. There is a 30% chance of no fitness loss,
15% chance of 1 level fitness lost, 15% of 2 levels, and a 10% chance
of each of 3,4,5, or 6 fitness levels being lost.
This fitness loss (if any) takes place at the end of the session, for
reasons of simplicity. Should a player be injured twice or
more in a session, only the most severe injury will apply.
******* CARLISLE UNITED CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
- Carlisle United Team Hardness = 1
- Nottingham Forest Team Hardness = 0
- All (except Gk) chance of injury = 2.75%
- Gk chance of injury = 1.37%
Gk Gregory Reyna: Chance of injury = 1.37% | Random number = 9.49 (no injury)
Sw Ramires Jesus: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 5.86 (no injury)
Df Jacob Beynon: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 4.44 (no injury)
Df Eirwyn Davey: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 43.36 (no injury)
Df Toshihiro Nakamura: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 9.2 (no injury)
Mf Aliyu Edet: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 74.92 (no injury)
Mf Jacek Frankowski: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 20.61 (no injury)
Fw Emmanuel Krzynówek: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 18.97 (no injury)
Fw Javier Gimenez: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 70.0 (no injury)
Fw Ki Seon-min: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 69.48 (no injury)
Fw Takeshi Fukunishi: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 46.07 (no injury)
******* NOTTINGHAM FOREST CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
- Nottingham Forest Team Hardness = 0
- Carlisle United Team Hardness = 1
- All (except Gk) chance of injury = 3.25%
- Gk chance of injury = 1.62%
Gk Kurt Östman: Chance of injury = 1.62% | Random number = 13.66 (no injury)
Sw Thiago Boniek: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 62.54 (no injury)
Df Gualberto Burgos: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 26.5 (no injury)
Df Mbaye Dieng: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 66.42 (no injury)
Df Jean Courtial: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 81.09 (no injury)
Mf Bruno Freda: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 7.66 (no injury)
Fw Abel Peeters: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 27.12 (no injury)
Mf Faustino Trotta: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 87.47 (no injury)
Fw Atef Omar: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 75.95 (no injury)
Fw Paul Dumont: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 46.21 (no injury)
Fw Keiron Chamberlain: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 12.97 (no injury)
============================================================================
============================================================================
P E N A L T Y K I C K S
There is a 10% chance of conceding a penalty for every hardness point used.
Each 10% chance is separate, so a team could concede as many penalties as it plays
hardness points. If no hardness is used, there is still a 5% penalty chance.
The chance of a penalty being scored is:
50 + (4 x penalty takers skill) - (2 x Gk skill) % (to a maximum 95%)
******* NOTTINGHAM FOREST CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
- Team Hardness: 0; (1 5% chance of yielding a PK)
- PK Taker: Javier Gimenez SL 14
- Defending Gk: Kurt Östman SL 16
intRndPk = 80
1: Chance of PK occurring = 5% | Random number = 80 (no penalty kick)
******* CARLISLE UNITED CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
- Team Hardness: 1; (1 10% chance of yielding a PK)
- PK Taker: Paul Dumont SL 16
- Defending Gk: Gregory Reyna SL 13
1: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 64 (no penalty kick)
============================================================================
============================================================================
A T T A C K I N G C H A N C E S & S H O T S
(i) If team A's Fw area total is greater than team B's Df area total,
then A earns a number of attacks equal to the difference.
Note: A Sw does NOT add his levels to the Df in this league!
(ii) The team with the highest Mf area total gets attacks equal to half
the difference.
(iii) If team A's Df area total is greater than team B's Fw total, then
team A earns a number of attacks equal to one fifth of the difference.
If team A is playing a sweeper behind the defence, this rises to one
third of the difference. All fractions of attacks are rounded up,
and then each of the attacks is treated as follows to see how many
produce shots, then goals:
(iv) Attacks have first to beat the Sw (if playing!). For each attack,
there is a percentage chance of it being stopped equal to:
30 + (Sw level x 2) %
(eg a level 10 Sw stops 30+10x2=50% of attacks.) Attacks passing the
Sw become shots.
(v) Each shot has a 35% chance of being off-target. If a side has scored
2 goals this rises to 40%, then by a further 5% after each goal scored,
to a maximum of 75%. This is to curb ridiculous scorelines (with luck!)
(vi) Finally, on-target shots come up against the Gk. This is similar to
the Sw test, but the percentage is:
40 + (Gk level x 2.25) %
Notes: If the defense is playing offside trap then the offensive team has
their Fw attacks cut in half and theor Mf attacks doubled.
A team choosing to PFD has 7 extra levels to split between Sw,
Df and Mf areas, but their attacks for each area will be halved
(round up fractions).
******* CARLISLE UNITED ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
AREA TOTALS GK Sw Df Mf Fw
-------------------------------------------
Carlisle United 15 14 39 28 60
Nottingham Forest 20 20 35 22 54
Carlisle United Fw Attacks = 25 (60 - 35); result rounded up
Carlisle United Mf Attacks = 3 ((28 - 22) / 2) ; result rounded up
Carlisle United Df Attacks = 0 ((39 - 54) / 3; rounded up)
Carlisle United Total Attacks = 28
1: Attack for Mf Jacek Frankowski
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 70% | Random number = 96 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 67 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 85.0% | Random number = 44.89 (Shot Saved by Gk)
2: Attack for Mf Aliyu Edet
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 70% | Random number = 3 (Sw stopped attack)
3: Attack for Mf Jacek Frankowski
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 70% | Random number = 5 (Sw stopped attack)
4: Attack for Fw Javier Gimenez
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 70% | Random number = 82 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 83 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 85.0% | Random number = 78.45 (Shot Saved by Gk)
5: Attack for Fw Ki Seon-min
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 70% | Random number = 66 (Sw stopped attack)
6: Attack for Fw Javier Gimenez
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 70% | Random number = 84 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 82 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 85.0% | Random number = 22.16 (Shot Saved by Gk)
7: Attack for Fw Ki Seon-min
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 70% | Random number = 30 (Sw stopped attack)
8: Attack for Fw Javier Gimenez
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 70% | Random number = 47 (Sw stopped attack)
9: Attack for Fw Ki Seon-min
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 70% | Random number = 40 (Sw stopped attack)
10: Attack for Fw Javier Gimenez
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 70% | Random number = 17 (Sw stopped attack)
11: Attack for Fw Ki Seon-min
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 70% | Random number = 79 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 63 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 85.0% | Random number = 74.68 (Shot Saved by Gk)
12: Attack for Fw Javier Gimenez
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 70% | Random number = 12 (Sw stopped attack)
13: Attack for Fw Javier Gimenez
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 70% | Random number = 20 (Sw stopped attack)
14: Attack for Fw Emmanuel Krzynówek
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 70% | Random number = 2 (Sw stopped attack)
15: Attack for Fw Ki Seon-min
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 70% | Random number = 98 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 6 (Shot Off Target)
16: Attack for Fw Javier Gimenez
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 70% | Random number = 64 (Sw stopped attack)
17: Attack for Fw Ki Seon-min
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 70% | Random number = 54 (Sw stopped attack)
18: Attack for Fw Javier Gimenez
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 70% | Random number = 14 (Sw stopped attack)
19: Attack for Fw Javier Gimenez
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 70% | Random number = 91 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 74 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 85.0% | Random number = 97.22 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!)
20: Attack for Fw Takeshi Fukunishi
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 70% | Random number = 95 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 89 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 85.0% | Random number = 87.02 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!)
21: Attack for Fw Javier Gimenez
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 70% | Random number = 79 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 10 (Shot Off Target)
22: Attack for Fw Javier Gimenez
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 70% | Random number = 33 (Sw stopped attack)
23: Attack for Fw Emmanuel Krzynówek
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 70% | Random number = 29 (Sw stopped attack)
24: Attack for Fw Takeshi Fukunishi
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 70% | Random number = 24 (Sw stopped attack)
25: Attack for Fw Takeshi Fukunishi
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 70% | Random number = 18 (Sw stopped attack)
26: Attack for Fw Ki Seon-min
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 70% | Random number = 75 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 45 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 85.0% | Random number = 89.33 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!)
27: Attack for Fw Javier Gimenez
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 70% | Random number = 62 (Sw stopped attack)
28: Attack for Fw Takeshi Fukunishi
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 70% | Random number = 9 (Sw stopped attack)
******* NOTTINGHAM FOREST ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
AREA TOTALS GK Sw Df Mf Fw
-------------------------------------------
Nottingham Forest 20 20 35 22 54
Carlisle United 15 14 39 28 60
Nottingham Forest Fw Attacks = 15 (54 - 39); result rounded up
Nottingham Forest Mf Attacks = 0 ((22 - 28) / 2; rounded up)
Nottingham Forest Df Attacks = 0 ((35 - 60) / 3; rounded up)
Nottingham Forest Total Attacks = 15
1: Attack for Fw Abel Peeters
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 58% | Random number = 34 (Sw stopped attack)
2: Attack for Fw Paul Dumont
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 58% | Random number = 49 (Sw stopped attack)
3: Attack for Fw Atef Omar
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 58% | Random number = 12 (Sw stopped attack)
4: Attack for Fw Paul Dumont
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 58% | Random number = 61 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 81 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 73.75% | Random number = 11.76 (Shot Saved by Gk)
5: Attack for Fw Atef Omar
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 58% | Random number = 53 (Sw stopped attack)
6: Attack for Fw Paul Dumont
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 58% | Random number = 62 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 3 (Shot Off Target)
7: Attack for Fw Atef Omar
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 58% | Random number = 83 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 35 (Shot Off Target)
8: Attack for Fw Atef Omar
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 58% | Random number = 69 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 9 (Shot Off Target)
9: Attack for Fw Atef Omar
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 58% | Random number = 30 (Sw stopped attack)
10: Attack for Fw Atef Omar
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 58% | Random number = 50 (Sw stopped attack)
11: Attack for Fw Atef Omar
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 58% | Random number = 67 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 52 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 73.75% | Random number = 14.43 (Shot Saved by Gk)
12: Attack for Fw Paul Dumont
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 58% | Random number = 32 (Sw stopped attack)
13: Attack for Fw Abel Peeters
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 58% | Random number = 54 (Sw stopped attack)
14: Attack for Fw Abel Peeters
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 58% | Random number = 69 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 65 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 73.75% | Random number = 57.29 (Shot Saved by Gk)
15: Attack for Fw Atef Omar
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 58% | Random number = 100 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 77 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 73.75% | Random number = 55.37 (Shot Saved by Gk)
===============================================
F I N A L S C O R E
CARLISLE UNITED 3 - NOTTINGHAM FOREST 0
Match Notes
Almost dead even with the touts, should be a good one.
Mike (Lincoln City FC) 06/14 - 1:14 PM
xG 0.82 vs 1.12 NOT EVEN CLOSE!!!!!
Steve (Nottingham Forest) 06/14 - 8:53 PM
That was one intimidating Forest GK/SW combo. Somehow we found a way. Not sure we'd get this scoreline if we played it again.
Dave (Carlisle United) 06/14 - 10:59 PM