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Carlisle United
Dave Gittins
 
Southend United
Colin Scott
 
 
FA Cup Round 1
 
 
 
 

S  T  A  R  T  I  N  G      L  I  N  E  U  P  S

CARLISLE UNITED                            SOUTHEND UNITED

Ps Player Name            SL  FIT  LVL     Ps Player Name            SL  FIT  LVL
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gk Dara Hays              13    0   13     Gk Alonso Lopez           13    0   13
Sw Cristhian Dybala       12    0   12     Sw Glen Clarke            13    0   13
Df Kristoffer Lagerbäck   13    0   13     Df Manuel Ortiz           12    0   12
Df Toshihiro Nakamura     10    0   10     Df Alex Salisu            11    0   11
Df Owen Sansom             9    0    9     Df Vincent Hamidou        10    0   10
Mf Peter Bengtsson        13    0   13     Df Mauricio López          5    2    7
Mf Jacek Frankowski       10    0   10     Df Alain Teulet            2    2    4
Fw Salem Bejaoui          14    0   14     Mf Randall Navarrete      15    0   15
Fw Noah Zimmermann        11    0   11     Mf Zaccaria Caligiuri      4    2    6
Fw Takeshi Fukunishi      10    0   10     Fw Rónald Aguilera        10    0   10
Fw Giorgian Fagundez       7    0    7     Fw Pedro Viera             2    2    4

      Gk Sw Df Mf Fw   A R E A  T O T A L S    Gk Sw Df Mf Fw
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
      13 12 32 23 42        ROSTER TOTALS      13 13 44 21 14    
       0  0  0  0  0          HARDNESS          1  0  0  0  0    
       0  0  0  1  8       HOME ADVANTAGE       0  0  0  0  0    
       0  0  0  0  0  GREAT PERFORMANCE POINTS  2  0  0  0  0    
       0  0  0  0  0        PLAY FOR DRAW       0  0  0  0  0    
=======================================================================
      13 12 32 24 50         T O T A L S       16 13 44 21 14    

============================================================================
============================================================================
B  O  O  K  I  N  G  S

Each player is next given a chance for a yellow/red card.  The first
number listed is the chance for the player to get the yellow/red
card while the second number shows the random number drawn.  If the 
random number is less than or equal to the player's yellow/red card 
chance then the player is sent off.  Note that the chances are as follows:
	- Booking: 1.5 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness))
	- Red Card: 0.25 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness)))

If a player is booked we immediately draw a second number to check
for a 'second yellow' (red card chance) resulting in a sending off.
If a player is not booked we draw a red card chance to see if the player
was given a straight red card.  Note that the aforementioned formula
differs for a Gk where the formula uses the hardness points added to
your Gk area and NOT the team hardness points.

*******  CARLISLE UNITED YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
   - Team Hardness = 0
   - Gk   Hardness = 0

Gk Dara Hays: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 30.72 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 35.22 (no red card)

Sw Cristhian Dybala: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 22.5 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 85.06 (no red card)

Df Kristoffer Lagerbäck: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 53.63 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 74.11 (no red card)

Df Toshihiro Nakamura: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 88.92 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 9.55 (no red card)

Df Owen Sansom: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 74.99 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 74.4 (no red card)

Mf Peter Bengtsson: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 70.46 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 67.15 (no red card)

Mf Jacek Frankowski: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 70.37 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 23.69 (no red card)

Fw Salem Bejaoui: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 76.28 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 89.27 (no red card)

Fw Noah Zimmermann: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 84.61 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 88.32 (no red card)

Fw Takeshi Fukunishi: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 35.76 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 37.31 (no red card)

Fw Giorgian Fagundez: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 77.2 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 50.07 (no red card)

*******  SOUTHEND UNITED YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
   - Team Hardness = 1
   - Gk   Hardness = 1

Gk Alonso Lopez: Chance of booking = 6.75% | Random number = 28.43 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.0% | Random number = 83.26 (no red card)

Sw Glen Clarke: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 0.91 (BOOKED!) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 85.34 (no second yellow)

Df Manuel Ortiz: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 98.29 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 63.26 (no red card)

Df Alex Salisu: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 97.45 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 54.0 (no red card)

Df Vincent Hamidou: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 18.56 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 80.19 (no red card)

Df Mauricio López: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 18.97 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 22.58 (no red card)

Df Alain Teulet: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 91.91 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 32.99 (no red card)

Mf Randall Navarrete: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 17.98 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 73.75 (no red card)

Mf Zaccaria Caligiuri: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 16.52 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 11.7 (no red card)

Fw Rónald Aguilera: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 1.11 (BOOKED!) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 37.23 (no second yellow)

Fw Pedro Viera: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 83.42 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 8.51 (no red card)
============================================================================
============================================================================
I  N  J  U  R  I  E  S

A major consequence of hardness is that your opponents get injured. 
For each player the chance of injury is:   
  ((your team’s hardness * .25) + (opponent’s hardness * .75) + 2.5)%.
    For example if your team has a hardness of 8 and the opposition has a hardness of 4,
    the chance of injury for each player would be: 2 + 3 + 2.5 or 7.5%.

The chance is halved for the opposition Gk. A player plays at half 
his normal level (skill plus fitness) in the match in which he is injured.

Injured players lose fitness as a result, the amount of fitness lost being
shown on the game report in brackets. There is a 30% chance of no fitness loss,
15% chance of 1 level fitness lost, 15% of 2 levels, and a 10% chance
of each of 3,4,5, or 6 fitness levels being lost. 
This fitness loss (if any) takes place at the end of the session, for 
reasons of simplicity. Should a player be injured twice or
more in a session, only the most severe injury will apply.


*******  CARLISLE UNITED CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
   - Carlisle United Team Hardness = 0
   - Southend United Team Hardness = 1
   - All (except Gk) chance of injury = 3.25%
   - Gk chance of injury = 1.62%
Gk Dara Hays: Chance of injury = 1.62% | Random number = 76.18 (no injury) 
Sw Cristhian Dybala: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 52.17 (no injury) 
Df Kristoffer Lagerbäck: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 25.84 (no injury) 
Df Toshihiro Nakamura: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 21.6 (no injury) 
Df Owen Sansom: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 61.04 (no injury) 
Mf Peter Bengtsson: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 28.05 (no injury) 
Mf Jacek Frankowski: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 37.26 (no injury) 
Fw Salem Bejaoui: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 28.17 (no injury) 
Fw Noah Zimmermann: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 67.97 (no injury) 
Fw Takeshi Fukunishi: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 33.27 (no injury) 
Fw Giorgian Fagundez: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 95.67 (no injury) 

*******  SOUTHEND UNITED CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
   - Southend United Team Hardness = 1
   - Carlisle United Team Hardness = 0
   - All (except Gk) chance of injury = 2.75%
   - Gk chance of injury = 1.37%
Gk Alonso Lopez: Chance of injury = 1.37% | Random number = 9.14 (no injury) 
Sw Glen Clarke: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 48.13 (no injury) 
Df Manuel Ortiz: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 51.21 (no injury) 
Df Alex Salisu: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 58.98 (no injury) 
Df Vincent Hamidou: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 78.23 (no injury) 
Df Mauricio López: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 81.12 (no injury) 
Df Alain Teulet: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 24.6 (no injury) 
Mf Randall Navarrete: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 57.3 (no injury) 
Mf Zaccaria Caligiuri: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 84.34 (no injury) 
Fw Rónald Aguilera: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 84.0 (no injury) 
Fw Pedro Viera: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 79.74 (no injury) 
============================================================================
============================================================================
P  E  N  A  L  T  Y     K  I  C  K  S

There is a 10% chance of conceding a penalty for every hardness point used.
Each 10% chance is separate, so a team could concede as many penalties as it plays
hardness points. If no hardness is used, there is still a 5% penalty chance. 
The chance of a penalty being scored is: 
  50 + (4 x penalty takers skill) - (2 x Gk skill)  %    (to a maximum 95%)

*******  SOUTHEND UNITED CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
   - Team Hardness: 1; (1 10% chance of yielding a PK)
   - PK Taker: Salem Bejaoui SL 14
   - Defending Gk: Alonso Lopez SL 13

1: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 9 (PENALTY KICK!)
   Chance of scoring = 80% | Random number = 32 (PENALTY KICK GOOOAAALLL!!!)

*******  CARLISLE UNITED CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
   - Team Hardness: 0; (1 5% chance of yielding a PK)
   - PK Taker: Randall Navarrete SL 15
   - Defending Gk: Dara Hays SL 13

     intRndPk = 93
1: Chance of PK occurring = 5% | Random number = 93 (no penalty kick)
============================================================================
============================================================================
A  T  T  A  C  K  I  N  G      C  H  A  N  C  E  S      &      S  H  O  T  S

  (i)   If team A's Fw area total is greater than team B's Df area total, 
        then A earns a number of attacks equal to the difference.
        Note: A Sw  does NOT add his levels to the Df in this league! 

  (ii)  The team with the highest Mf area total gets attacks equal to half
        the difference.

  (iii) If team A's Df area total is greater than team B's Fw total, then  
        team A earns a number of attacks equal to one fifth of the difference.
        If team A is playing a sweeper behind the defence, this rises to one 
        third of the difference.  All fractions of attacks are rounded up, 
        and then each of the attacks is treated as follows to see how many 
        produce shots, then goals: 

  (iv)  Attacks have first to beat the Sw (if playing!).  For each attack,
        there is a percentage chance of it being stopped equal to:
              30 + (Sw level x 2) % 
        (eg a level 10 Sw stops 30+10x2=50% of attacks.) Attacks passing the 
        Sw become shots.

  (v)   Each shot has a 35% chance of being off-target. If a side has scored
        2 goals this rises to 40%, then by a further 5% after each goal scored,
        to a maximum of 75%. This is to curb ridiculous scorelines (with luck!)

  (vi)  Finally, on-target shots come up against the  Gk. This is similar to 
        the Sw test, but the percentage is:
        40 + (Gk level x 2.25) % 

  Notes: If the defense is playing offside trap then the offensive team has
         their Fw attacks cut in half and theor Mf attacks doubled.

         A team choosing to PFD has 7 extra levels to split between Sw, 
         Df and Mf areas, but their attacks for each area will be halved 
         (round up fractions).

*******  CARLISLE UNITED ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
  AREA TOTALS             GK  Sw  Df  Mf  Fw
  -------------------------------------------
  Carlisle United          13  12  32  24  50
  Southend United          16  13  44  21  14

Carlisle United Fw Attacks = 6 (50 - 44); result rounded up
Carlisle United Mf Attacks = 2 ((24 - 21) / 2) ; result rounded up
Carlisle United Df Attacks = 6 ((32 - 14) / 3); result rounded up
Carlisle United Total Attacks = 14

1: Attack for Df Toshihiro Nakamura
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 7 (Sw stopped attack) 
2: Attack for Df Toshihiro Nakamura
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 64 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 79 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 76.0% | Random number = 63.7 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
3: Attack for Df Kristoffer Lagerbäck
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 72 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 65 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 76.0% | Random number = 34.46 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
4: Attack for Df Owen Sansom
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 15 (Sw stopped attack) 
5: Attack for Df Toshihiro Nakamura
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 59 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 11 (Shot Off Target) 
6: Attack for Df Toshihiro Nakamura
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 56 (Sw stopped attack) 
7: Attack for Mf Jacek Frankowski
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 67 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 57 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 76.0% | Random number = 63.29 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
8: Attack for Mf Peter Bengtsson
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 15 (Sw stopped attack) 
9: Attack for Fw Noah Zimmermann
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 56 (Sw stopped attack) 
10: Attack for Fw Giorgian Fagundez
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 74 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 28 (Shot Off Target) 
11: Attack for Fw Salem Bejaoui
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 22 (Sw stopped attack) 
12: Attack for Fw Salem Bejaoui
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 66 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 5 (Shot Off Target) 
13: Attack for Fw Noah Zimmermann
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 23 (Sw stopped attack) 
14: Attack for Fw Salem Bejaoui
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 7 (Sw stopped attack) 

*******  SOUTHEND UNITED ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
  AREA TOTALS             GK  Sw  Df  Mf  Fw
  -------------------------------------------
  Southend United          16  13  44  21  14
  Carlisle United          13  12  32  24  50

Southend United Fw Attacks = 0 (14 - 32)
Southend United Mf Attacks = 0 ((21 - 24) / 2;  rounded up)
Southend United Df Attacks = 0 ((44 - 50) / 3;  rounded up)
Southend United Total Attacks = 0

===============================================
     F  I  N  A  L         S  C  O  R  E
CARLISLE UNITED 1  -  SOUTHEND UNITED 0
 
Match Notes
Can we all agree on a draw and move on?
Colin (Southend United) 05/13 - 6:00 PM
I saw this post Colin! 😎
Allan (Brentford FC) 05/15 - 10:21 PM
It seems most observers are not favoring a draw in this match up. Have Colin´s tactics been found out?
Vick (Weston-super-Mare AFC) 05/17 - 11:00 PM
What tactics!
Colin (Southend United) 05/18 - 8:25 PM
A penalty....
Colin (Southend United) 05/21 - 4:41 PM
 
 
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