(N)
Port Vale FC
John Holden
Swansea City AFC
Roy Rolsten
AP Cup Group (3)
S T A R T I N G L I N E U P S
PORT VALE FC SWANSEA CITY AFC
Ps Player Name SL FIT LVL Ps Player Name SL FIT LVL
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Gk Dylan De boer 13 0 13 Gk Pathé Ndong 11 0 11
Sw Pablo Odriozola 11 1 12 Df Munir Hamdallah 11 0 11
Df Sven Thoren 11 0 11 Df Jordan Cummings 11 0 11
Df Jerome De Ketelaere 10 0 10 Df Min-Seong Jung 10 1 11
Df Philipp Vogel 10 0 10 Df Shoichi Morishima 5 2 7
Mf Alan Herdman 13 0 13 Mf Kwasi Twumasi 12 0 12
Mf Benedicto González 10 1 11 Mf Aurelien Maitron 5 2 7
Fw Hermidio Rivera 13 0 13 Fw Dario Vasilj 14 0 14
Fw Adam Vasilev 15 0 15 Fw Yeltsin Venegas 16 1 17
Fw Martin Aguilera 10 1 11 Fw Fernando Guimarães 11 0 11
Fw Peter Goossens 7 0 7 Fw Renato Cabanas 10 0 10
Gk Sw Df Mf Fw A R E A T O T A L S Gk Sw Df Mf Fw
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
13 12 31 24 46 ROSTER TOTALS 11 0 40 19 52
1 0 0 0 0 HARDNESS 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 HOME ADVANTAGE 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 GREAT PERFORMANCE POINTS 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 PLAY FOR DRAW 0 0 0 0 0
=======================================================================
14 12 31 24 46 T O T A L S 11 0 40 19 52
============================================================================
============================================================================
B O O K I N G S
Each player is next given a chance for a yellow/red card. The first
number listed is the chance for the player to get the yellow/red
card while the second number shows the random number drawn. If the
random number is less than or equal to the player's yellow/red card
chance then the player is sent off. Note that the chances are as follows:
- Booking: 1.5 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness))
- Red Card: 0.25 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness)))
If a player is booked we immediately draw a second number to check
for a 'second yellow' (red card chance) resulting in a sending off.
If a player is not booked we draw a red card chance to see if the player
was given a straight red card. Note that the aforementioned formula
differs for a Gk where the formula uses the hardness points added to
your Gk area and NOT the team hardness points.
******* PORT VALE FC YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
- Team Hardness = 1
- Gk Hardness = 1
Gk Dylan De boer: Chance of booking = 6.75% | Random number = 48.35 (no booking)
Chance of straight red card = 1.0% | Random number = 36.67 (no red card)
Sw Pablo Odriozola: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 6.73 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 2.8 (no red card)
Df Sven Thoren: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 82.77 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 96.93 (no red card)
Df Jerome De Ketelaere: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 77.76 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 32.81 (no red card)
Df Philipp Vogel: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 22.31 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 11.82 (no red card)
Mf Alan Herdman: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 0.43 (BOOKED!)
Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 13.73 (no second yellow)
Mf Benedicto González: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 81.29 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 33.08 (no red card)
Fw Hermidio Rivera: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 46.64 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 80.89 (no red card)
Fw Adam Vasilev: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 16.32 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 15.5 (no red card)
Fw Martin Aguilera: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 96.86 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 78.5 (no red card)
Fw Peter Goossens: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 60.06 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 38.35 (no red card)
******* SWANSEA CITY AFC YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
- Team Hardness = 0
- Gk Hardness = 0
Gk Pathé Ndong: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 91.5 (no booking)
Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 78.29 (no red card)
Df Munir Hamdallah: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 61.07 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 78.12 (no red card)
Df Jordan Cummings: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 66.6 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 89.52 (no red card)
Df Min-Seong Jung: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 6.89 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 85.23 (no red card)
Df Shoichi Morishima: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 90.84 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 26.11 (no red card)
Mf Kwasi Twumasi: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 27.57 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 93.43 (no red card)
Mf Aurelien Maitron: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 3.29 (BOOKED!)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 33.34 (no second yellow)
Fw Dario Vasilj: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 12.01 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 77.01 (no red card)
Fw Yeltsin Venegas: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 44.64 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 25.69 (no red card)
Fw Fernando Guimarães: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 15.51 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 86.44 (no red card)
Fw Renato Cabanas: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 0.44 (BOOKED!)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 65.46 (no second yellow)
============================================================================
============================================================================
I N J U R I E S
A major consequence of hardness is that your opponents get injured.
For each player the chance of injury is:
((your team’s hardness * .25) + (opponent’s hardness * .75) + 2.5)%.
For example if your team has a hardness of 8 and the opposition has a hardness of 4,
the chance of injury for each player would be: 2 + 3 + 2.5 or 7.5%.
The chance is halved for the opposition Gk. A player plays at half
his normal level (skill plus fitness) in the match in which he is injured.
Injured players lose fitness as a result, the amount of fitness lost being
shown on the game report in brackets. There is a 30% chance of no fitness loss,
15% chance of 1 level fitness lost, 15% of 2 levels, and a 10% chance
of each of 3,4,5, or 6 fitness levels being lost.
This fitness loss (if any) takes place at the end of the session, for
reasons of simplicity. Should a player be injured twice or
more in a session, only the most severe injury will apply.
******* PORT VALE FC CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
- Port Vale FC Team Hardness = 1
- Swansea City AFC Team Hardness = 0
- All (except Gk) chance of injury = 2.75%
- Gk chance of injury = 1.37%
Gk Dylan De boer: Chance of injury = 1.37% | Random number = 16.77 (no injury)
Sw Pablo Odriozola: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 71.95 (no injury)
Df Sven Thoren: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 19.31 (no injury)
Df Jerome De Ketelaere: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 70.78 (no injury)
Df Philipp Vogel: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 22.01 (no injury)
Mf Alan Herdman: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 52.13 (no injury)
Mf Benedicto González: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 46.36 (no injury)
Fw Hermidio Rivera: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 4.01 (no injury)
Fw Adam Vasilev: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 76.88 (no injury)
Fw Martin Aguilera: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 83.63 (no injury)
Fw Peter Goossens: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 31.94 (no injury)
******* SWANSEA CITY AFC CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
- Swansea City AFC Team Hardness = 0
- Port Vale FC Team Hardness = 1
- All (except Gk) chance of injury = 3.25%
- Gk chance of injury = 1.62%
Gk Pathé Ndong: Chance of injury = 1.62% | Random number = 13.35 (no injury)
Df Munir Hamdallah: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 42.69 (no injury)
Df Jordan Cummings: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 14.49 (no injury)
Df Min-Seong Jung: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 88.43 (no injury)
Df Shoichi Morishima: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 92.62 (no injury)
Mf Kwasi Twumasi: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 13.28 (no injury)
Mf Aurelien Maitron: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 68.64 (no injury)
Fw Dario Vasilj: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 38.99 (no injury)
Fw Yeltsin Venegas: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 82.72 (no injury)
Fw Fernando Guimarães: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 17.9 (no injury)
Fw Renato Cabanas: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 26.16 (no injury)
============================================================================
============================================================================
P E N A L T Y K I C K S
There is a 10% chance of conceding a penalty for every hardness point used.
Each 10% chance is separate, so a team could concede as many penalties as it plays
hardness points. If no hardness is used, there is still a 5% penalty chance.
The chance of a penalty being scored is:
50 + (4 x penalty takers skill) - (2 x Gk skill) % (to a maximum 95%)
******* SWANSEA CITY AFC CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
- Team Hardness: 0; (1 5% chance of yielding a PK)
- PK Taker: Adam Vasilev SL 15
- Defending Gk: Pathé Ndong SL 11
intRndPk = 36
1: Chance of PK occurring = 5% | Random number = 36 (no penalty kick)
******* PORT VALE FC CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
- Team Hardness: 1; (1 10% chance of yielding a PK)
- PK Taker: Yeltsin Venegas SL 16
- Defending Gk: Dylan De boer SL 13
1: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 11 (no penalty kick)
============================================================================
============================================================================
A T T A C K I N G C H A N C E S & S H O T S
(i) If team A's Fw area total is greater than team B's Df area total,
then A earns a number of attacks equal to the difference.
Note: A Sw does NOT add his levels to the Df in this league!
(ii) The team with the highest Mf area total gets attacks equal to half
the difference.
(iii) If team A's Df area total is greater than team B's Fw total, then
team A earns a number of attacks equal to one fifth of the difference.
If team A is playing a sweeper behind the defence, this rises to one
third of the difference. All fractions of attacks are rounded up,
and then each of the attacks is treated as follows to see how many
produce shots, then goals:
(iv) Attacks have first to beat the Sw (if playing!). For each attack,
there is a percentage chance of it being stopped equal to:
30 + (Sw level x 2) %
(eg a level 10 Sw stops 30+10x2=50% of attacks.) Attacks passing the
Sw become shots.
(v) Each shot has a 35% chance of being off-target. If a side has scored
2 goals this rises to 40%, then by a further 5% after each goal scored,
to a maximum of 75%. This is to curb ridiculous scorelines (with luck!)
(vi) Finally, on-target shots come up against the Gk. This is similar to
the Sw test, but the percentage is:
40 + (Gk level x 2.25) %
Notes: If the defense is playing offside trap then the offensive team has
their Fw attacks cut in half and theor Mf attacks doubled.
A team choosing to PFD has 7 extra levels to split between Sw,
Df and Mf areas, but their attacks for each area will be halved
(round up fractions).
******* PORT VALE FC ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
AREA TOTALS GK Sw Df Mf Fw
-------------------------------------------
Port Vale FC 14 12 31 24 46
Swansea City AFC 11 0 40 19 52
Port Vale FC Fw Attacks = 6 (46 - 40); result rounded up
Port Vale FC Mf Attacks = 3 ((24 - 19) / 2) ; result rounded up
Port Vale FC Df Attacks = 0 ((31 - 52) / 3; rounded up)
Port Vale FC Total Attacks = 9
1: Attack for Mf Alan Herdman
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Swansea City AFC
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 92 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 64.75% | Random number = 57.22 (Shot Saved by Gk)
2: Attack for Mf Alan Herdman
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Swansea City AFC
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 93 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 64.75% | Random number = 58.67 (Shot Saved by Gk)
3: Attack for Mf Benedicto González
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Swansea City AFC
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 55 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 64.75% | Random number = 57.18 (Shot Saved by Gk)
4: Attack for Fw Hermidio Rivera
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Swansea City AFC
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 27 (Shot Off Target)
5: Attack for Fw Peter Goossens
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Swansea City AFC
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 13 (Shot Off Target)
6: Attack for Fw Adam Vasilev
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Swansea City AFC
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 77 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 64.75% | Random number = 32.92 (Shot Saved by Gk)
7: Attack for Fw Peter Goossens
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Swansea City AFC
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 66 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 64.75% | Random number = 59.99 (Shot Saved by Gk)
8: Attack for Fw Adam Vasilev
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Swansea City AFC
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 5 (Shot Off Target)
9: Attack for Fw Adam Vasilev
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Swansea City AFC
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 14 (Shot Off Target)
******* SWANSEA CITY AFC ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
AREA TOTALS GK Sw Df Mf Fw
-------------------------------------------
Swansea City AFC 11 0 40 19 52
Port Vale FC 14 12 31 24 46
Swansea City AFC Fw Attacks = 21 (52 - 31); result rounded up
Swansea City AFC Mf Attacks = 0 ((19 - 24) / 2; rounded up)
Swansea City AFC Df Attacks = 0 ((40 - 46) / 5; rounded up)
Swansea City AFC Total Attacks = 21
1: Attack for Fw Yeltsin Venegas
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 54% | Random number = 78 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 72 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 71.5% | Random number = 89.6 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!)
2: Attack for Fw Renato Cabanas
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 54% | Random number = 90 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 53 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 71.5% | Random number = 68.96 (Shot Saved by Gk)
3: Attack for Fw Fernando Guimarães
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 54% | Random number = 73 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 69 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 71.5% | Random number = 50.34 (Shot Saved by Gk)
4: Attack for Fw Fernando Guimarães
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 54% | Random number = 81 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 64 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 71.5% | Random number = 46.94 (Shot Saved by Gk)
5: Attack for Fw Dario Vasilj
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 54% | Random number = 99 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 93 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 71.5% | Random number = 41.39 (Shot Saved by Gk)
6: Attack for Fw Fernando Guimarães
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 54% | Random number = 80 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 14 (Shot Off Target)
7: Attack for Fw Fernando Guimarães
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 54% | Random number = 82 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 87 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 71.5% | Random number = 66.39 (Shot Saved by Gk)
8: Attack for Fw Fernando Guimarães
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 54% | Random number = 7 (Sw stopped attack)
9: Attack for Fw Fernando Guimarães
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 54% | Random number = 28 (Sw stopped attack)
10: Attack for Fw Renato Cabanas
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 54% | Random number = 73 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 61 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 71.5% | Random number = 54.46 (Shot Saved by Gk)
11: Attack for Fw Yeltsin Venegas
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 54% | Random number = 18 (Sw stopped attack)
12: Attack for Fw Fernando Guimarães
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 54% | Random number = 20 (Sw stopped attack)
13: Attack for Fw Yeltsin Venegas
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 54% | Random number = 34 (Sw stopped attack)
14: Attack for Fw Yeltsin Venegas
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 54% | Random number = 85 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 70 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 71.5% | Random number = 61.33 (Shot Saved by Gk)
15: Attack for Fw Dario Vasilj
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 54% | Random number = 49 (Sw stopped attack)
16: Attack for Fw Dario Vasilj
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 54% | Random number = 41 (Sw stopped attack)
17: Attack for Fw Dario Vasilj
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 54% | Random number = 2 (Sw stopped attack)
18: Attack for Fw Renato Cabanas
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 54% | Random number = 54 (Sw stopped attack)
19: Attack for Fw Yeltsin Venegas
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 54% | Random number = 70 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 78 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 71.5% | Random number = 42.0 (Shot Saved by Gk)
20: Attack for Fw Dario Vasilj
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 54% | Random number = 81 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 4 (Shot Off Target)
21: Attack for Fw Dario Vasilj
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 54% | Random number = 20 (Sw stopped attack)
===============================================
F I N A L S C O R E
PORT VALE FC 0 - SWANSEA CITY AFC 1
Match Notes
Swansea's possession metrics look tidy on paper. Port Vale will test whether that translates under pressure. Should be instructive.
Olmec Head Marcus (Coventry City) 05/11 - 6:30 PM
One or both of us will go through.
John (Port Vale FC) 05/15 - 3:03 PM
Rolsten will have studied the neutral ground setup carefully — it removes variables he cannot control. Whether Holden's side can impose any tactical identity here is the more pressing unknown.
Olmec Head Marcus (Coventry City) 05/15 - 6:31 PM