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Crewe Alexandra FC
Carl Oakes
 
Dorchester Town
Andy Shaw
 
 
League Round 18
 
 
 
 
S  T  A  R  T  I  N  G      L  I  N  E  U  P  S

CREWE ALEXANDRA FC                         DORCHESTER TOWN

Ps Player Name            SL  FIT  LVL     Ps Player Name            SL  FIT  LVL
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gk Per Holmdahl           10    2   12     Gk Kris Vermant           13    2   15
Sw Piotr Sobolewski       14    2   16     Sw Krzysztof Brozek        5    2    7
Df Magnus Waering         15    2   17     Df Bozidar Šimic          15    2   17
Df Festus Abubakar        13    2   15     Df Pedro Romero           15    2   17
Df Dominique Coltorti      9    2   11     Df Sim Young-gwon         13    2   15
Mf Ivan Jackson           15    2   17     Df Abdoul N'day            9    2   11
Mf Óscar Cota             13    2   15     Mf Óscar Rivero           15    2   17
Mf Clement Harouna         9    2   11     Mf Peter Roldan           15    2   17
Fw Olivier Havet          15    2   17     Mf Nazariy Gusak          14    2   16
Fw Gonzalo Lopez          14    2   16     Fw Luís Oliveira          15    2   17
Fw Kalle Ljungberg         9    2   11     Fw Teun Van der berg      10    2   12

      Gk Sw Df Mf Fw   A R E A  T O T A L S    Gk Sw Df Mf Fw
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
      12 16 43 43 44        ROSTER TOTALS      15  7 60 50 29    
       0  0  0  0  0          HARDNESS          1  3  0  0  0    
       0  0  0  2  7       HOME ADVANTAGE       0  0  0  0  0    
       3  0  0  0  4  GREAT PERFORMANCE POINTS  0  0  0  0  0    
       0  0  0  0  0        PLAY FOR DRAW       0  0  7  0  0    
=======================================================================
      15 16 43 45 55         T O T A L S       16 10 67 50 29    

============================================================================
============================================================================
B  O  O  K  I  N  G  S

Each player is next given a chance for a yellow/red card.  The first
number listed is the chance for the player to get the yellow/red
card while the second number shows the random number drawn.  If the 
random number is less than or equal to the player's yellow/red card 
chance then the player is sent off.  Note that the chances are as follows:
	- Booking: 1.5 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness))
	- Red Card: 0.25 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness)))

If a player is booked we immediately draw a second number to check
for a 'second yellow' (red card chance) resulting in a sending off.
If a player is not booked we draw a red card chance to see if the player
was given a straight red card.  Note that the aforementioned formula
differs for a Gk where the formula uses the hardness points added to
your Gk area and NOT the team hardness points.

*******  CREWE ALEXANDRA FC YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
   - Team Hardness = 0
   - Gk   Hardness = 0

Gk Per Holmdahl: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 74.67 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 97.28 (no red card)

Sw Piotr Sobolewski: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 33.82 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 73.8 (no red card)

Df Magnus Waering: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 30.03 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 93.81 (no red card)

Df Festus Abubakar: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 48.08 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 45.01 (no red card)

Df Dominique Coltorti: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 62.33 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 52.15 (no red card)

Mf Ivan Jackson: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 76.26 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 1.76 (no red card)

Mf Óscar Cota: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 81.11 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 97.65 (no red card)

Mf Clement Harouna: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 23.02 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 49.15 (no red card)

Fw Olivier Havet: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 28.56 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 96.3 (no red card)

Fw Gonzalo Lopez: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 76.81 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 60.71 (no red card)

Fw Kalle Ljungberg: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 19.92 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 48.08 (no red card)

*******  DORCHESTER TOWN YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
   - Team Hardness = 4
   - Gk   Hardness = 1

Gk Kris Vermant: Chance of booking = 6.75% | Random number = 87.61 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.0% | Random number = 79.87 (no red card)

Sw Krzysztof Brozek: Chance of booking = 10.5% | Random number = 54.19 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.75% | Random number = 31.41 (no red card)

Df Bozidar Šimic: Chance of booking = 10.5% | Random number = 76.29 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.75% | Random number = 49.89 (no red card)

Df Pedro Romero: Chance of booking = 10.5% | Random number = 41.71 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.75% | Random number = 84.99 (no red card)

Df Sim Young-gwon: Chance of booking = 10.5% | Random number = 33.15 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.75% | Random number = 67.65 (no red card)

Df Abdoul N'day: Chance of booking = 10.5% | Random number = 94.03 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.75% | Random number = 96.86 (no red card)

Mf Óscar Rivero: Chance of booking = 10.5% | Random number = 69.32 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.75% | Random number = 87.85 (no red card)

Mf Peter Roldan: Chance of booking = 10.5% | Random number = 82.56 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.75% | Random number = 34.13 (no red card)

Mf Nazariy Gusak: Chance of booking = 10.5% | Random number = 58.84 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.75% | Random number = 93.03 (no red card)

Fw Luís Oliveira: Chance of booking = 10.5% | Random number = 55.68 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.75% | Random number = 65.09 (no red card)

Fw Teun Van der berg: Chance of booking = 10.5% | Random number = 81.58 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.75% | Random number = 66.5 (no red card)
============================================================================
============================================================================
I  N  J  U  R  I  E  S

A major consequence of hardness is that your opponents get injured. 
For each player the chance of injury is:   
  ((your team’s hardness * .25) + (opponent’s hardness * .75) + 2.5)%.
    For example if your team has a hardness of 8 and the opposition has a hardness of 4,
    the chance of injury for each player would be: 2 + 3 + 2.5 or 7.5%.

The chance is halved for the opposition Gk. A player plays at half 
his normal level (skill plus fitness) in the match in which he is injured.

Injured players lose fitness as a result, the amount of fitness lost being
shown on the game report in brackets. There is a 30% chance of no fitness loss,
15% chance of 1 level fitness lost, 15% of 2 levels, and a 10% chance
of each of 3,4,5, or 6 fitness levels being lost. 
This fitness loss (if any) takes place at the end of the session, for 
reasons of simplicity. Should a player be injured twice or
more in a session, only the most severe injury will apply.


*******  CREWE ALEXANDRA FC CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
   - Crewe Alexandra FC Team Hardness = 0
   - Dorchester Town Team Hardness = 4
   - All (except Gk) chance of injury = 5.5%
   - Gk chance of injury = 2.75%
Gk Per Holmdahl: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 66.78 (no injury) 
Sw Piotr Sobolewski: Chance of injury = 5.5% | Random number = 11.88 (no injury) 
Df Magnus Waering: Chance of injury = 5.5% | Random number = 76.05 (no injury) 
Df Festus Abubakar: Chance of injury = 5.5% | Random number = 14.76 (no injury) 
Df Dominique Coltorti: Chance of injury = 5.5% | Random number = 71.49 (no injury) 
Mf Ivan Jackson: Chance of injury = 5.5% | Random number = 46.39 (no injury) 
Mf Óscar Cota: Chance of injury = 5.5% | Random number = 17.03 (no injury) 
Mf Clement Harouna: Chance of injury = 5.5% | Random number = 24.19 (no injury) 
Fw Olivier Havet: Chance of injury = 5.5% | Random number = 32.62 (no injury) 
Fw Gonzalo Lopez: Chance of injury = 5.5% | Random number = 68.96 (no injury) 
Fw Kalle Ljungberg: Chance of injury = 5.5% | Random number = 16.54 (no injury) 

*******  DORCHESTER TOWN CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
   - Dorchester Town Team Hardness = 4
   - Crewe Alexandra FC Team Hardness = 0
   - All (except Gk) chance of injury = 3.5%
   - Gk chance of injury = 1.75%
Gk Kris Vermant: Chance of injury = 1.75% | Random number = 51.69 (no injury) 
Sw Krzysztof Brozek: Chance of injury = 3.5% | Random number = 4.86 (no injury) 
Df Bozidar Šimic: Chance of injury = 3.5% | Random number = 41.89 (no injury) 
Df Pedro Romero: Chance of injury = 3.5% | Random number = 35.23 (no injury) 
Df Sim Young-gwon: Chance of injury = 3.5% | Random number = 20.32 (no injury) 
Df Abdoul N'day: Chance of injury = 3.5% | Random number = 14.63 (no injury) 
Mf Óscar Rivero: Chance of injury = 3.5% | Random number = 73.61 (no injury) 
Mf Peter Roldan: Chance of injury = 3.5% | Random number = 25.92 (no injury) 
Mf Nazariy Gusak: Chance of injury = 3.5% | Random number = 89.91 (no injury) 
Fw Luís Oliveira: Chance of injury = 3.5% | Random number = 86.92 (no injury) 
Fw Teun Van der berg: Chance of injury = 3.5% | Random number = 10.44 (no injury) 
============================================================================
============================================================================
P  E  N  A  L  T  Y     K  I  C  K  S

There is a 10% chance of conceding a penalty for every hardness point used.
Each 10% chance is separate, so a team could concede as many penalties as it plays
hardness points. If no hardness is used, there is still a 5% penalty chance. 
The chance of a penalty being scored is: 
  50 + (4 x penalty takers skill) - (2 x Gk skill)  %    (to a maximum 95%)

*******  DORCHESTER TOWN CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
   - Team Hardness: 4; (4 10% chances of yielding PKs)
   - PK Taker: Magnus Waering SL 15
   - Defending Gk: Kris Vermant SL 13

1: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 10 (PENALTY KICK!)
   Chance of scoring = 84% | Random number = 58 (PENALTY KICK GOOOAAALLL!!!)
2: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 73 (no penalty kick)
3: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 60 (no penalty kick)
4: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 49 (no penalty kick)

*******  CREWE ALEXANDRA FC CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
   - Team Hardness: 0; (1 5% chance of yielding a PK)
   - PK Taker: Bozidar Šimic SL 15
   - Defending Gk: Per Holmdahl SL 10

     intRndPk = 97
1: Chance of PK occurring = 5% | Random number = 97 (no penalty kick)
============================================================================
============================================================================
A  T  T  A  C  K  I  N  G      C  H  A  N  C  E  S      &      S  H  O  T  S

  (i)   If team A's Fw area total is greater than team B's Df area total, 
        then A earns a number of attacks equal to the difference.
        Note: A Sw  does NOT add his levels to the Df in this league! 

  (ii)  The team with the highest Mf area total gets attacks equal to half
        the difference.

  (iii) If team A's Df area total is greater than team B's Fw total, then  
        team A earns a number of attacks equal to one fifth of the difference.
        If team A is playing a sweeper behind the defence, this rises to one 
        third of the difference.  All fractions of attacks are rounded up, 
        and then each of the attacks is treated as follows to see how many 
        produce shots, then goals: 

  (iv)  Attacks have first to beat the Sw (if playing!).  For each attack,
        there is a percentage chance of it being stopped equal to:
              30 + (Sw level x 2) % 
        (eg a level 10 Sw stops 30+10x2=50% of attacks.) Attacks passing the 
        Sw become shots.

  (v)   Each shot has a 35% chance of being off-target. If a side has scored
        2 goals this rises to 40%, then by a further 5% after each goal scored,
        to a maximum of 75%. This is to curb ridiculous scorelines (with luck!)

  (vi)  Finally, on-target shots come up against the  Gk. This is similar to 
        the Sw test, but the percentage is:
        40 + (Gk level x 2.25) % 

  Notes: If the defense is playing offside trap then the offensive team has
         their Fw attacks cut in half and theor Mf attacks doubled.

         A team choosing to PFD has 7 extra levels to split between Sw, 
         Df and Mf areas, but their attacks for each area will be halved 
         (round up fractions).

*******  CREWE ALEXANDRA FC ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
  AREA TOTALS             GK  Sw  Df  Mf  Fw
  -------------------------------------------
  Crewe Alexandra FC       15  16  43  45  55
  Dorchester Town          16  10  67  50  29

Crewe Alexandra FC Fw Attacks = 0 (55 - 67)
Crewe Alexandra FC Mf Attacks = 0 ((45 - 50) / 2;  rounded up)
Crewe Alexandra FC Df Attacks = 5 ((43 - 29) / 3); result rounded up
Crewe Alexandra FC Total Attacks = 5

1: Attack for Df Magnus Waering
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 50% | Random number = 56 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 19 (Shot Off Target) 
2: Attack for Df Festus Abubakar
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 50% | Random number = 57 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 98 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 76.0% | Random number = 77.64 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 
3: Attack for Df Dominique Coltorti
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 50% | Random number = 83 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 41 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 76.0% | Random number = 28.69 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
4: Attack for Df Magnus Waering
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 50% | Random number = 3 (Sw stopped attack) 
5: Attack for Df Magnus Waering
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 50% | Random number = 48 (Sw stopped attack) 

*******  DORCHESTER TOWN ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
  AREA TOTALS             GK  Sw  Df  Mf  Fw
  -------------------------------------------
  Dorchester Town          16  10  67  50  29
  Crewe Alexandra FC       15  16  43  45  55

Dorchester Town is Playing For A Draw!
Dorchester Town Fw Attacks = 0 (29 - 43)
Dorchester Town Mf Attacks = 1 ((50 - 45) / 2)  * 0.5 (Play For Draw Multiplier); result rounded up
Dorchester Town Df Attacks = 2 ((67 - 55) / 3) * 0.5 (Play For Draw Multiplier); result rounded up
Dorchester Town Total Attacks = 3

1: Attack for Df Bozidar Šimic
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 7 (Sw stopped attack) 
2: Attack for Df Abdoul N'day
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 84 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 97 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 73.75% | Random number = 28.15 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
3: Attack for Mf Peter Roldan
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 75 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 10 (Shot Off Target) 
===============================================
     F  I  N  A  L         S  C  O  R  E
CREWE ALEXANDRA FC 2  -  DORCHESTER TOWN 0
 

Match Notes

Another one of those end of season 6 pointers
~ Carl ~ Jul 5 (Crewe Alexandra FC)  
Checklist Carl setting up at home against Shaw's side, who'll arrive from Middlesbrough with one idea and execute it quietly. A low-risk host versus a one-nil chaser — the xG on this will be deeply unromantic.
~ Olmec Head Marcus ~ Jul 6 (Coventry City)  
Both teams just outside the relegation zone.
~ Andy ~ Jul 6 (Dorchester Town)  
That will keep us in Div 2
~ Carl ~ Jul 12 (Crewe Alexandra FC)  
Just. Phew!!
~ Carl ~ Jul 12 (Crewe Alexandra FC)  
We played for a point and it backfired.
~ Andy ~ Jul 12 (Dorchester Town)  
 
 
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