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Nottingham Forest
Steve Turner
 
Chesterfield FC
Phil McIntosh
 
 
League Round 14
 
 
 
 

S  T  A  R  T  I  N  G      L  I  N  E  U  P  S

NOTTINGHAM FOREST                          CHESTERFIELD FC

Ps Player Name            SL  FIT  LVL     Ps Player Name            SL  FIT  LVL
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gk Kurt Östman            15    2   17     Gk Niklas Herrmann        15    2   17
Sw Édouard Gning          15    2   17     Sw Ibou Sene              11    1   12
Df Nour Zaroury           13    2   15     Df Jeff Stewart           15    0   15
Df Moez Mhedhebi          12    1   13     Df Edilberto Moreno       13    0   13
Df Freddie Cockham        11    1   12     Df Amalio Zanetti          9   -1    8
Mf Noah Martinez           9    1   10     Mf Erik Weber             11    0   11
Mf Johnny Rieder           9    2   11     Mf Brecht De vos           9    0    9
Fw Óscar Vargas           14    2   16     Mf Connor Patel            8    1    9
Fw Kian Clarke            13    1   14     Fw Gabriel Fernandinho    14    0   14
Fw Josh Watson            13    1   14     Fw Francisco Viana         8    1    9
Fw Fredrik Engberg         7    1    8     Fw Liam Cleverley          8    1    9

      Gk Sw Df Mf Fw   A R E A  T O T A L S    Gk Sw Df Mf Fw
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
      17 17 40 21 52        ROSTER TOTALS      17 12 36 29 32    
       0  0  0  0  0          HARDNESS          0  0  0  0  0    
       0  0  0  0  9       HOME ADVANTAGE       0  0  0  0  0    
       0  0  0  0  0  GREAT PERFORMANCE POINTS  0  0  0  0  0    
       0  0  0  0  0        PLAY FOR DRAW       0  0  0  0  0    
=======================================================================
      17 17 40 21 61         T O T A L S       17 12 36 29 32    

============================================================================
============================================================================
B  O  O  K  I  N  G  S

Each player is next given a chance for a yellow/red card.  The first
number listed is the chance for the player to get the yellow/red
card while the second number shows the random number drawn.  If the 
random number is less than or equal to the player's yellow/red card 
chance then the player is sent off.  Note that the chances are as follows:
	- Booking: 1.5 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness))
	- Red Card: 0.25 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness)))

If a player is booked we immediately draw a second number to check
for a 'second yellow' (red card chance) resulting in a sending off.
If a player is not booked we draw a red card chance to see if the player
was given a straight red card.  Note that the aforementioned formula
differs for a Gk where the formula uses the hardness points added to
your Gk area and NOT the team hardness points.

*******  NOTTINGHAM FOREST YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
   - Team Hardness = 0
   - Gk   Hardness = 0

Gk Kurt Östman: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 47.03 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 51.7 (no red card)

Sw Édouard Gning: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 20.59 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 39.87 (no red card)

Df Nour Zaroury: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 15.55 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 21.3 (no red card)

Df Moez Mhedhebi: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 10.9 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 72.14 (no red card)

Df Freddie Cockham: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 92.67 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 19.58 (no red card)

Mf Noah Martinez: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 1.11 (BOOKED!) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 80.6 (no second yellow)

Mf Johnny Rieder: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 32.19 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 62.23 (no red card)

Fw Óscar Vargas: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 49.35 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 60.69 (no red card)

Fw Kian Clarke: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 32.3 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 24.8 (no red card)

Fw Josh Watson: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 13.49 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 61.93 (no red card)

Fw Fredrik Engberg: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 54.1 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 26.89 (no red card)

*******  CHESTERFIELD FC YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
   - Team Hardness = 0
   - Gk   Hardness = 0

Gk Niklas Herrmann: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 71.93 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 99.91 (no red card)

Sw Ibou Sene: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 32.21 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 73.59 (no red card)

Df Jeff Stewart: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 37.08 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 74.11 (no red card)

Df Edilberto Moreno: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 6.43 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 56.49 (no red card)

Df Amalio Zanetti: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 62.71 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 26.61 (no red card)

Mf Erik Weber: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 14.61 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 3.1 (no red card)

Mf Brecht De vos: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 93.75 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 9.18 (no red card)

Mf Connor Patel: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 79.04 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 77.22 (no red card)

Fw Gabriel Fernandinho: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 20.87 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 94.62 (no red card)

Fw Francisco Viana: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 46.79 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 20.24 (no red card)

Fw Liam Cleverley: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 63.39 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 77.29 (no red card)
============================================================================
============================================================================
I  N  J  U  R  I  E  S

A major consequence of hardness is that your opponents get injured. 
For each player the chance of injury is:   
  ((your team’s hardness * .25) + (opponent’s hardness * .75) + 2.5)%.
    For example if your team has a hardness of 8 and the opposition has a hardness of 4,
    the chance of injury for each player would be: 2 + 3 + 2.5 or 7.5%.

The chance is halved for the opposition Gk. A player plays at half 
his normal level (skill plus fitness) in the match in which he is injured.

Injured players lose fitness as a result, the amount of fitness lost being
shown on the game report in brackets. There is a 30% chance of no fitness loss,
15% chance of 1 level fitness lost, 15% of 2 levels, and a 10% chance
of each of 3,4,5, or 6 fitness levels being lost. 
This fitness loss (if any) takes place at the end of the session, for 
reasons of simplicity. Should a player be injured twice or
more in a session, only the most severe injury will apply.


*******  NOTTINGHAM FOREST CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
   - Nottingham Forest Team Hardness = 0
   - Chesterfield FC Team Hardness = 0
   - All (except Gk) chance of injury = 2.5%
   - Gk chance of injury = 1.25%
Gk Kurt Östman: Chance of injury = 1.25% | Random number = 18.16 (no injury) 
Sw Édouard Gning: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 36.76 (no injury) 
Df Nour Zaroury: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 44.11 (no injury) 
Df Moez Mhedhebi: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 96.36 (no injury) 
Df Freddie Cockham: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 86.34 (no injury) 
Mf Noah Martinez: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 88.48 (no injury) 
Mf Johnny Rieder: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 79.82 (no injury) 
Fw Óscar Vargas: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 63.81 (no injury) 
Fw Kian Clarke: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 33.92 (no injury) 
Fw Josh Watson: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 44.0 (no injury) 
Fw Fredrik Engberg: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 68.22 (no injury) 

*******  CHESTERFIELD FC CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
   - Chesterfield FC Team Hardness = 0
   - Nottingham Forest Team Hardness = 0
   - All (except Gk) chance of injury = 2.5%
   - Gk chance of injury = 1.25%
Gk Niklas Herrmann: Chance of injury = 1.25% | Random number = 78.48 (no injury) 
Sw Ibou Sene: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 73.28 (no injury) 
Df Jeff Stewart: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 67.73 (no injury) 
Df Edilberto Moreno: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 19.86 (no injury) 
Df Amalio Zanetti: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 4.69 (no injury) 
Mf Erik Weber: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 36.73 (no injury) 
Mf Brecht De vos: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 36.95 (no injury) 
Mf Connor Patel: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 28.28 (no injury) 
Fw Gabriel Fernandinho: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 78.32 (no injury) 
Fw Francisco Viana: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 29.29 (no injury) 
Fw Liam Cleverley: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 39.13 (no injury) 
============================================================================
============================================================================
P  E  N  A  L  T  Y     K  I  C  K  S

There is a 10% chance of conceding a penalty for every hardness point used.
Each 10% chance is separate, so a team could concede as many penalties as it plays
hardness points. If no hardness is used, there is still a 5% penalty chance. 
The chance of a penalty being scored is: 
  50 + (4 x penalty takers skill) - (2 x Gk skill)  %    (to a maximum 95%)

*******  CHESTERFIELD FC CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
   - Team Hardness: 0; (1 5% chance of yielding a PK)
   - PK Taker: Óscar Vargas SL 14
   - Defending Gk: Niklas Herrmann SL 15

     intRndPk = 80
1: Chance of PK occurring = 5% | Random number = 80 (no penalty kick)

*******  NOTTINGHAM FOREST CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
   - Team Hardness: 0; (1 5% chance of yielding a PK)
   - PK Taker: Jeff Stewart SL 15
   - Defending Gk: Kurt Östman SL 15

     intRndPk = 64
1: Chance of PK occurring = 5% | Random number = 64 (no penalty kick)
============================================================================
============================================================================
A  T  T  A  C  K  I  N  G      C  H  A  N  C  E  S      &      S  H  O  T  S

  (i)   If team A's Fw area total is greater than team B's Df area total, 
        then A earns a number of attacks equal to the difference.
        Note: A Sw  does NOT add his levels to the Df in this league! 

  (ii)  The team with the highest Mf area total gets attacks equal to half
        the difference.

  (iii) If team A's Df area total is greater than team B's Fw total, then  
        team A earns a number of attacks equal to one fifth of the difference.
        If team A is playing a sweeper behind the defence, this rises to one 
        third of the difference.  All fractions of attacks are rounded up, 
        and then each of the attacks is treated as follows to see how many 
        produce shots, then goals: 

  (iv)  Attacks have first to beat the Sw (if playing!).  For each attack,
        there is a percentage chance of it being stopped equal to:
              30 + (Sw level x 2) % 
        (eg a level 10 Sw stops 30+10x2=50% of attacks.) Attacks passing the 
        Sw become shots.

  (v)   Each shot has a 35% chance of being off-target. If a side has scored
        2 goals this rises to 40%, then by a further 5% after each goal scored,
        to a maximum of 75%. This is to curb ridiculous scorelines (with luck!)

  (vi)  Finally, on-target shots come up against the  Gk. This is similar to 
        the Sw test, but the percentage is:
        40 + (Gk level x 2.25) % 

  Notes: If the defense is playing offside trap then the offensive team has
         their Fw attacks cut in half and theor Mf attacks doubled.

         A team choosing to PFD has 7 extra levels to split between Sw, 
         Df and Mf areas, but their attacks for each area will be halved 
         (round up fractions).

*******  NOTTINGHAM FOREST ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
  AREA TOTALS             GK  Sw  Df  Mf  Fw
  -------------------------------------------
  Nottingham Forest        17  17  40  21  61
  Chesterfield FC          17  12  36  29  32

Nottingham Forest Fw Attacks = 25 (61 - 36); result rounded up
Nottingham Forest Mf Attacks = 0 ((21 - 29) / 2;  rounded up)
Nottingham Forest Df Attacks = 3 ((40 - 32) / 3); result rounded up
Nottingham Forest Total Attacks = 28

1: Attack for Df Moez Mhedhebi
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 54% | Random number = 46 (Sw stopped attack) 
2: Attack for Df Freddie Cockham
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 54% | Random number = 89 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 39 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 78.25% | Random number = 76.34 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
3: Attack for Df Nour Zaroury
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 54% | Random number = 65 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 14 (Shot Off Target) 
4: Attack for Fw Óscar Vargas
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 54% | Random number = 13 (Sw stopped attack) 
5: Attack for Fw Josh Watson
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 54% | Random number = 60 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 65 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 78.25% | Random number = 85.14 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 
6: Attack for Fw Fredrik Engberg
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 54% | Random number = 30 (Sw stopped attack) 
7: Attack for Fw Josh Watson
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 54% | Random number = 30 (Sw stopped attack) 
8: Attack for Fw Kian Clarke
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 54% | Random number = 53 (Sw stopped attack) 
9: Attack for Fw Óscar Vargas
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 54% | Random number = 15 (Sw stopped attack) 
10: Attack for Fw Josh Watson
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 54% | Random number = 7 (Sw stopped attack) 
11: Attack for Fw Kian Clarke
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 54% | Random number = 53 (Sw stopped attack) 
12: Attack for Fw Kian Clarke
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 54% | Random number = 20 (Sw stopped attack) 
13: Attack for Fw Josh Watson
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 54% | Random number = 15 (Sw stopped attack) 
14: Attack for Fw Josh Watson
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 54% | Random number = 95 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 55 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 78.25% | Random number = 27.73 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
15: Attack for Fw Josh Watson
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 54% | Random number = 38 (Sw stopped attack) 
16: Attack for Fw Kian Clarke
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 54% | Random number = 42 (Sw stopped attack) 
17: Attack for Fw Óscar Vargas
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 54% | Random number = 19 (Sw stopped attack) 
18: Attack for Fw Óscar Vargas
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 54% | Random number = 77 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 92 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 78.25% | Random number = 33.99 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
19: Attack for Fw Fredrik Engberg
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 54% | Random number = 86 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 65 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 78.25% | Random number = 2.54 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
20: Attack for Fw Josh Watson
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 54% | Random number = 64 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 56 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 78.25% | Random number = 90.27 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 
21: Attack for Fw Josh Watson
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 54% | Random number = 2 (Sw stopped attack) 
22: Attack for Fw Óscar Vargas
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 54% | Random number = 16 (Sw stopped attack) 
23: Attack for Fw Fredrik Engberg
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 54% | Random number = 25 (Sw stopped attack) 
24: Attack for Fw Fredrik Engberg
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 54% | Random number = 54 (Sw stopped attack) 
25: Attack for Fw Kian Clarke
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 54% | Random number = 47 (Sw stopped attack) 
26: Attack for Fw Josh Watson
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 54% | Random number = 29 (Sw stopped attack) 
27: Attack for Fw Óscar Vargas
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 54% | Random number = 23 (Sw stopped attack) 
28: Attack for Fw Kian Clarke
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 54% | Random number = 68 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 62 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 78.25% | Random number = 39.39 (Shot Saved by Gk) 

*******  CHESTERFIELD FC ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
  AREA TOTALS             GK  Sw  Df  Mf  Fw
  -------------------------------------------
  Chesterfield FC          17  12  36  29  32
  Nottingham Forest        17  17  40  21  61

Chesterfield FC Fw Attacks = 0 (32 - 40)
Chesterfield FC Mf Attacks = 4 ((29 - 21) / 2) ; result rounded up
Chesterfield FC Df Attacks = 0 ((36 - 61) / 3;  rounded up)
Chesterfield FC Total Attacks = 4

1: Attack for Mf Erik Weber
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 64% | Random number = 98 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 78 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 78.25% | Random number = 63.55 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
2: Attack for Mf Connor Patel
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 64% | Random number = 8 (Sw stopped attack) 
3: Attack for Mf Connor Patel
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 64% | Random number = 26 (Sw stopped attack) 
4: Attack for Mf Erik Weber
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 64% | Random number = 97 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 95 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 78.25% | Random number = 22.23 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
===============================================
     F  I  N  A  L         S  C  O  R  E
NOTTINGHAM FOREST 2  -  CHESTERFIELD FC 0
 
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