(H)

Swansea City AFC
Roy Rolsten

Nottingham Forest
Steve Turner
League Round 13
S T A R T I N G L I N E U P S SWANSEA CITY AFC NOTTINGHAM FOREST Ps Player Name SL FIT LVL Ps Player Name SL FIT LVL ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Gk Pathé Ndong 14 2 16 Gk Kurt Östman 16 2 18 Df Jordan Cummings 13 2 15 Sw Thiago Boniek 16 0 16 Df Bonturo Ferrari 13 0 13 Df Martin Persson 14 2 16 Df Miguel de la Cruz 13 2 15 Df Gualberto Burgos 12 2 14 Df Enrique Masis 10 2 12 Mf Bruno Freda 10 2 12 Mf Walid Sellimi 12 2 14 Mf Faustino Trotta 9 2 11 Mf Mikkel Hedegaard 11 2 13 Fw Atef Omar 15 1 16 Fw Yeltsin Venegas 15 0 15 Fw Keiron Chamberlain 14 2 16 Fw Renato Cabanas 15 2 17 Fw Girnot Reus 12 0 12 Fw Gerry Maclaren 16 0 16 Fw Ederson Fabinho 9 2 11 Fw Dario Vasilj 8 2 10 Fw Óscar Vargas 9 2 11 Gk Sw Df Mf Fw A R E A T O T A L S Gk Sw Df Mf Fw ----------------------------------------------------------------------- 16 0 55 27 58 ROSTER TOTALS 18 16 30 23 66 0 0 0 0 0 HARDNESS 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 HOME ADVANTAGE 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 GREAT PERFORMANCE POINTS 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 PLAY FOR DRAW 0 0 0 0 0 ======================================================================= 16 0 55 27 76 T O T A L S 18 16 30 23 66 ============================================================================ ============================================================================ B O O K I N G S Each player is next given a chance for a yellow/red card. The first number listed is the chance for the player to get the yellow/red card while the second number shows the random number drawn. If the random number is less than or equal to the player's yellow/red card chance then the player is sent off. Note that the chances are as follows: - Booking: 1.5 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness)) - Red Card: 0.25 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness))) If a player is booked we immediately draw a second number to check for a 'second yellow' (red card chance) resulting in a sending off. If a player is not booked we draw a red card chance to see if the player was given a straight red card. Note that the aforementioned formula differs for a Gk where the formula uses the hardness points added to your Gk area and NOT the team hardness points. ******* SWANSEA CITY AFC YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES ******* - Team Hardness = 0 - Gk Hardness = 0 Gk Pathé Ndong: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 16.65 (no booking) Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 90.34 (no red card) Df Jordan Cummings: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 60.83 (no booking) Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 11.75 (no red card) Df Bonturo Ferrari: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 84.82 (no booking) Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 56.75 (no red card) Df Miguel de la Cruz: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 32.15 (no booking) Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 83.72 (no red card) Df Enrique Masis: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 14.03 (no booking) Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 55.07 (no red card) Mf Walid Sellimi: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 12.1 (no booking) Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 43.83 (no red card) Mf Mikkel Hedegaard: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 46.03 (no booking) Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 55.39 (no red card) Fw Yeltsin Venegas: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 78.16 (no booking) Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 70.38 (no red card) Fw Renato Cabanas: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 42.42 (no booking) Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 21.63 (no red card) Fw Gerry Maclaren: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 38.09 (no booking) Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 23.99 (no red card) Fw Dario Vasilj: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 83.24 (no booking) Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 99.7 (no red card) ******* NOTTINGHAM FOREST YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES ******* - Team Hardness = 0 - Gk Hardness = 0 Gk Kurt Östman: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 2.88 (no booking) Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 84.13 (no red card) Sw Thiago Boniek: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 29.4 (no booking) Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 3.91 (no red card) Df Martin Persson: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 63.43 (no booking) Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 43.05 (no red card) Df Gualberto Burgos: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 34.5 (no booking) Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 78.78 (no red card) Mf Bruno Freda: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 77.79 (no booking) Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 89.64 (no red card) Mf Faustino Trotta: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 60.27 (no booking) Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 21.9 (no red card) Fw Atef Omar: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 20.4 (no booking) Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 60.5 (no red card) Fw Keiron Chamberlain: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 95.07 (no booking) Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 85.43 (no red card) Fw Girnot Reus: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 37.69 (no booking) Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 84.75 (no red card) Fw Ederson Fabinho: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 42.5 (no booking) Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 60.4 (no red card) Fw Óscar Vargas: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 33.02 (no booking) Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 64.36 (no red card) ============================================================================ ============================================================================ I N J U R I E S A major consequence of hardness is that your opponents get injured. For each player the chance of injury is: ((your team’s hardness * .25) + (opponent’s hardness * .75) + 2.5)%. For example if your team has a hardness of 8 and the opposition has a hardness of 4, the chance of injury for each player would be: 2 + 3 + 2.5 or 7.5%. The chance is halved for the opposition Gk. A player plays at half his normal level (skill plus fitness) in the match in which he is injured. Injured players lose fitness as a result, the amount of fitness lost being shown on the game report in brackets. There is a 30% chance of no fitness loss, 15% chance of 1 level fitness lost, 15% of 2 levels, and a 10% chance of each of 3,4,5, or 6 fitness levels being lost. This fitness loss (if any) takes place at the end of the session, for reasons of simplicity. Should a player be injured twice or more in a session, only the most severe injury will apply. ******* SWANSEA CITY AFC CHANCES FOR INJURY ******* - Swansea City AFC Team Hardness = 0 - Nottingham Forest Team Hardness = 0 - All (except Gk) chance of injury = 2.5% - Gk chance of injury = 1.25% Gk Pathé Ndong: Chance of injury = 1.25% | Random number = 8.15 (no injury) Df Jordan Cummings: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 78.74 (no injury) Df Bonturo Ferrari: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 95.5 (no injury) Df Miguel de la Cruz: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 84.47 (no injury) Df Enrique Masis: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 37.39 (no injury) Mf Walid Sellimi: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 18.33 (no injury) Mf Mikkel Hedegaard: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 57.99 (no injury) Fw Yeltsin Venegas: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 43.16 (no injury) Fw Renato Cabanas: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 20.23 (no injury) Fw Gerry Maclaren: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 90.74 (no injury) Fw Dario Vasilj: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 29.42 (no injury) ******* NOTTINGHAM FOREST CHANCES FOR INJURY ******* - Nottingham Forest Team Hardness = 0 - Swansea City AFC Team Hardness = 0 - All (except Gk) chance of injury = 2.5% - Gk chance of injury = 1.25% Gk Kurt Östman: Chance of injury = 1.25% | Random number = 4.79 (no injury) Sw Thiago Boniek: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 85.01 (no injury) Df Martin Persson: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 56.77 (no injury) Df Gualberto Burgos: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 25.03 (no injury) Mf Bruno Freda: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 77.11 (no injury) Mf Faustino Trotta: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 50.67 (no injury) Fw Atef Omar: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 15.87 (no injury) Fw Keiron Chamberlain: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 65.42 (no injury) Fw Girnot Reus: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 27.12 (no injury) Fw Ederson Fabinho: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 32.6 (no injury) Fw Óscar Vargas: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 42.62 (no injury) ============================================================================ ============================================================================ P E N A L T Y K I C K S There is a 10% chance of conceding a penalty for every hardness point used. Each 10% chance is separate, so a team could concede as many penalties as it plays hardness points. If no hardness is used, there is still a 5% penalty chance. The chance of a penalty being scored is: 50 + (4 x penalty takers skill) - (2 x Gk skill) % (to a maximum 95%) ******* NOTTINGHAM FOREST CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS ******* - Team Hardness: 0; (1 5% chance of yielding a PK) - PK Taker: Gerry Maclaren SL 16 - Defending Gk: Kurt Östman SL 16 intRndPk = 51 1: Chance of PK occurring = 5% | Random number = 51 (no penalty kick) ******* SWANSEA CITY AFC CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS ******* - Team Hardness: 0; (1 5% chance of yielding a PK) - PK Taker: Atef Omar SL 15 - Defending Gk: Pathé Ndong SL 14 intRndPk = 92 1: Chance of PK occurring = 5% | Random number = 92 (no penalty kick) ============================================================================ ============================================================================ A T T A C K I N G C H A N C E S & S H O T S (i) If team A's Fw area total is greater than team B's Df area total, then A earns a number of attacks equal to the difference. Note: A Sw does NOT add his levels to the Df in this league! (ii) The team with the highest Mf area total gets attacks equal to half the difference. (iii) If team A's Df area total is greater than team B's Fw total, then team A earns a number of attacks equal to one fifth of the difference. If team A is playing a sweeper behind the defence, this rises to one third of the difference. All fractions of attacks are rounded up, and then each of the attacks is treated as follows to see how many produce shots, then goals: (iv) Attacks have first to beat the Sw (if playing!). For each attack, there is a percentage chance of it being stopped equal to: 30 + (Sw level x 2) % (eg a level 10 Sw stops 30+10x2=50% of attacks.) Attacks passing the Sw become shots. (v) Each shot has a 35% chance of being off-target. If a side has scored 2 goals this rises to 40%, then by a further 5% after each goal scored, to a maximum of 75%. This is to curb ridiculous scorelines (with luck!) (vi) Finally, on-target shots come up against the Gk. This is similar to the Sw test, but the percentage is: 40 + (Gk level x 2.25) % Notes: If the defense is playing offside trap then the offensive team has their Fw attacks cut in half and theor Mf attacks doubled. A team choosing to PFD has 7 extra levels to split between Sw, Df and Mf areas, but their attacks for each area will be halved (round up fractions). ******* SWANSEA CITY AFC ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS ******* AREA TOTALS GK Sw Df Mf Fw ------------------------------------------- Swansea City AFC 16 0 55 27 76 Nottingham Forest 18 16 30 23 66 Swansea City AFC Fw Attacks = 46 (76 - 30); result rounded up Swansea City AFC Mf Attacks = 2 ((27 - 23) / 2) ; result rounded up Swansea City AFC Df Attacks = 0 ((55 - 66) / 5; rounded up) Swansea City AFC Total Attacks = 48 1: Attack for Mf Walid Sellimi Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 44 (Sw stopped attack) 2: Attack for Mf Mikkel Hedegaard Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 33 (Sw stopped attack) 3: Attack for Fw Renato Cabanas Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 49 (Sw stopped attack) 4: Attack for Fw Yeltsin Venegas Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 28 (Sw stopped attack) 5: Attack for Fw Renato Cabanas Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 59 (Sw stopped attack) 6: Attack for Fw Yeltsin Venegas Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 23 (Sw stopped attack) 7: Attack for Fw Dario Vasilj Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 57 (Sw stopped attack) 8: Attack for Fw Yeltsin Venegas Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 62 (Sw stopped attack) 9: Attack for Fw Dario Vasilj Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 23 (Sw stopped attack) 10: Attack for Fw Yeltsin Venegas Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 52 (Sw stopped attack) 11: Attack for Fw Yeltsin Venegas Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 2 (Sw stopped attack) 12: Attack for Fw Gerry Maclaren Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 14 (Sw stopped attack) 13: Attack for Fw Gerry Maclaren Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 79 (Sw did not stop attack!!) Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 48 (Shot On Target) Chance of Gk Save = 80.5% | Random number = 99.27 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 14: Attack for Fw Yeltsin Venegas Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 97 (Sw did not stop attack!!) Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 92 (Shot On Target) Chance of Gk Save = 80.5% | Random number = 5.97 (Shot Saved by Gk) 15: Attack for Fw Yeltsin Venegas Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 1 (Sw stopped attack) 16: Attack for Fw Gerry Maclaren Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 1 (Sw stopped attack) 17: Attack for Fw Gerry Maclaren Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 19 (Sw stopped attack) 18: Attack for Fw Yeltsin Venegas Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 21 (Sw stopped attack) 19: Attack for Fw Yeltsin Venegas Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 16 (Sw stopped attack) 20: Attack for Fw Gerry Maclaren Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 51 (Sw stopped attack) 21: Attack for Fw Gerry Maclaren Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 48 (Sw stopped attack) 22: Attack for Fw Renato Cabanas Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 64 (Sw did not stop attack!!) Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 73 (Shot On Target) Chance of Gk Save = 80.5% | Random number = 16.05 (Shot Saved by Gk) 23: Attack for Fw Yeltsin Venegas Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 64 (Sw did not stop attack!!) Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 48 (Shot On Target) Chance of Gk Save = 80.5% | Random number = 84.12 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 24: Attack for Fw Yeltsin Venegas Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 8 (Sw stopped attack) 25: Attack for Fw Yeltsin Venegas Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 14 (Sw stopped attack) 26: Attack for Fw Gerry Maclaren Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 29 (Sw stopped attack) 27: Attack for Fw Yeltsin Venegas Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 37 (Sw stopped attack) 28: Attack for Fw Yeltsin Venegas Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 98 (Sw did not stop attack!!) Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 86 (Shot On Target) Chance of Gk Save = 80.5% | Random number = 12.96 (Shot Saved by Gk) 29: Attack for Fw Dario Vasilj Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 59 (Sw stopped attack) 30: Attack for Fw Yeltsin Venegas Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 57 (Sw stopped attack) 31: Attack for Fw Gerry Maclaren Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 46 (Sw stopped attack) 32: Attack for Fw Dario Vasilj Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 19 (Sw stopped attack) 33: Attack for Fw Yeltsin Venegas Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 69 (Sw did not stop attack!!) Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 92 (Shot On Target) Chance of Gk Save = 80.5% | Random number = 21.47 (Shot Saved by Gk) 34: Attack for Fw Gerry Maclaren Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 2 (Sw stopped attack) 35: Attack for Fw Gerry Maclaren Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 56 (Sw stopped attack) 36: Attack for Fw Gerry Maclaren Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 27 (Sw stopped attack) 37: Attack for Fw Yeltsin Venegas Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 24 (Sw stopped attack) 38: Attack for Fw Yeltsin Venegas Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 90 (Sw did not stop attack!!) Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 50 (Shot On Target) Chance of Gk Save = 80.5% | Random number = 22.47 (Shot Saved by Gk) 39: Attack for Fw Yeltsin Venegas Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 86 (Sw did not stop attack!!) Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 38 (Shot Off Target) 40: Attack for Fw Gerry Maclaren Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 6 (Sw stopped attack) 41: Attack for Fw Yeltsin Venegas Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 61 (Sw stopped attack) 42: Attack for Fw Renato Cabanas Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 20 (Sw stopped attack) 43: Attack for Fw Gerry Maclaren Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 29 (Sw stopped attack) 44: Attack for Fw Dario Vasilj Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 32 (Sw stopped attack) 45: Attack for Fw Gerry Maclaren Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 43 (Sw stopped attack) 46: Attack for Fw Gerry Maclaren Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 70 (Sw did not stop attack!!) Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 31 (Shot Off Target) 47: Attack for Fw Gerry Maclaren Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 24 (Sw stopped attack) 48: Attack for Fw Renato Cabanas Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 97 (Sw did not stop attack!!) Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 50 (Shot On Target) Chance of Gk Save = 80.5% | Random number = 58.79 (Shot Saved by Gk) ******* NOTTINGHAM FOREST ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS ******* AREA TOTALS GK Sw Df Mf Fw ------------------------------------------- Nottingham Forest 18 16 30 23 66 Swansea City AFC 16 0 55 27 76 Nottingham Forest Fw Attacks = 11 (66 - 55); result rounded up Nottingham Forest Mf Attacks = 0 ((23 - 27) / 2; rounded up) Nottingham Forest Df Attacks = 0 ((30 - 76) / 3; rounded up) Nottingham Forest Total Attacks = 11 1: Attack for Fw Óscar Vargas Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Swansea City AFC Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 84 (Shot On Target) Chance of Gk Save = 76.0% | Random number = 43.73 (Shot Saved by Gk) 2: Attack for Fw Ederson Fabinho Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Swansea City AFC Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 95 (Shot On Target) Chance of Gk Save = 76.0% | Random number = 44.65 (Shot Saved by Gk) 3: Attack for Fw Atef Omar Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Swansea City AFC Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 61 (Shot On Target) Chance of Gk Save = 76.0% | Random number = 15.63 (Shot Saved by Gk) 4: Attack for Fw Girnot Reus Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Swansea City AFC Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 75 (Shot On Target) Chance of Gk Save = 76.0% | Random number = 26.9 (Shot Saved by Gk) 5: Attack for Fw Keiron Chamberlain Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Swansea City AFC Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 84 (Shot On Target) Chance of Gk Save = 76.0% | Random number = 29.34 (Shot Saved by Gk) 6: Attack for Fw Girnot Reus Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Swansea City AFC Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 55 (Shot On Target) Chance of Gk Save = 76.0% | Random number = 20.27 (Shot Saved by Gk) 7: Attack for Fw Girnot Reus Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Swansea City AFC Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 36 (Shot On Target) Chance of Gk Save = 76.0% | Random number = 89.8 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 8: Attack for Fw Óscar Vargas Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Swansea City AFC Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 48 (Shot On Target) Chance of Gk Save = 76.0% | Random number = 15.09 (Shot Saved by Gk) 9: Attack for Fw Keiron Chamberlain Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Swansea City AFC Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 100 (Shot On Target) Chance of Gk Save = 76.0% | Random number = 85.05 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 10: Attack for Fw Atef Omar Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Swansea City AFC Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 69 (Shot On Target) Chance of Gk Save = 76.0% | Random number = 71.33 (Shot Saved by Gk) 11: Attack for Fw Atef Omar Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Swansea City AFC Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 11 (Shot Off Target) =============================================== F I N A L S C O R E SWANSEA CITY AFC 2 - NOTTINGHAM FOREST 2
Match Notes

I didn't even watch the viewer as I assumed we'd get thrashed.
Steve (Nottingham Forest) 07/12 - 6:07 PM

Have you not been paying attention to our results this season?...
Roy (Swansea City AFC) 07/12 - 11:17 PM