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Bristol City FC
Roger Mendonça
 
Swansea City AFC
Roy Rolsten
 
 
League Round 8
 
 
 
 

S  T  A  R  T  I  N  G      L  I  N  E  U  P  S

BRISTOL CITY FC                            SWANSEA CITY AFC

Ps Player Name            SL  FIT  LVL     Ps Player Name            SL  FIT  LVL
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gk Alberto Flores         16   -1   15     Gk Jonas Suffo            11    2   13
Df Mario Rojas            13    2   15     Df Enrique Masis          13    0   13
Df Eugene Goodwin          7    2    9     Df Gharib Alami           12    1   13
Mf Steven Simons          13    2   15     Df Miguel de la Cruz       7    2    9
Mf Efe Akpan               7    2    9     Df Jordan Cummings         3    2    5
Mf Rafal Karas             3    2    5     Mf Khalid Idrissi         12    2   14
Fw Dafydd Chapman         11    2   13     Mf Ghailene Bouzaiene     12    0   12
Fw Mbark Sabiri           10    2   12     Mf Mikkel Hedegaard        7    2    9
Fw Jørn Nielsen           10    2   12     Fw Gerry Maclaren         14    0   14
Fw Ulf Helander            7    2    9     Fw Michaël Van der heijden15    2   17
Fw Tiago Pinto             3    2    5     Fw Renato Cabanas          7    2    9

      Gk Sw Df Mf Fw   A R E A  T O T A L S    Gk Sw Df Mf Fw
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
      15  0 24 29 51        ROSTER TOTALS      13  0 40 35 40    
       0  0  0  0  0          HARDNESS          0  0  0  0  0    
       0  0  0  0  9       HOME ADVANTAGE       0  0  0  0  0    
       0  0  0  0  0  GREAT PERFORMANCE POINTS  0  0  0  0  0    
       0  0  0  0  0        PLAY FOR DRAW       0  0  0  0  0    
=======================================================================
      15  0 24 29 60         T O T A L S       13  0 40 35 40    

============================================================================
============================================================================
B  O  O  K  I  N  G  S

Each player is next given a chance for a yellow/red card.  The first
number listed is the chance for the player to get the yellow/red
card while the second number shows the random number drawn.  If the 
random number is less than or equal to the player's yellow/red card 
chance then the player is sent off.  Note that the chances are as follows:
	- Booking: 1.5 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness))
	- Red Card: 0.25 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness)))

If a player is booked we immediately draw a second number to check
for a 'second yellow' (red card chance) resulting in a sending off.
If a player is not booked we draw a red card chance to see if the player
was given a straight red card.  Note that the aforementioned formula
differs for a Gk where the formula uses the hardness points added to
your Gk area and NOT the team hardness points.

*******  BRISTOL CITY FC YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
   - Team Hardness = 0
   - Gk   Hardness = 0

Gk Alberto Flores: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 77.2 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 59.06 (no red card)

Df Mario Rojas: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 84.25 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 57.67 (no red card)

Df Eugene Goodwin: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 58.54 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 98.57 (no red card)

Mf Steven Simons: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 43.13 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 25.38 (no red card)

Mf Efe Akpan: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 0.19 (BOOKED!) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 92.14 (no second yellow)

Mf Rafal Karas: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 68.15 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 37.87 (no red card)

Fw Dafydd Chapman: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 87.06 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 69.03 (no red card)

Fw Mbark Sabiri: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 56.92 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 24.72 (no red card)

Fw Jørn Nielsen: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 54.52 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 38.17 (no red card)

Fw Ulf Helander: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 34.36 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 62.94 (no red card)

Fw Tiago Pinto: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 35.41 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 35.39 (no red card)

*******  SWANSEA CITY AFC YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
   - Team Hardness = 0
   - Gk   Hardness = 0

Gk Jonas Suffo: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 55.84 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 58.16 (no red card)

Df Enrique Masis: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 77.52 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 67.16 (no red card)

Df Gharib Alami: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 8.42 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 42.02 (no red card)

Df Miguel de la Cruz: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 75.46 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 61.74 (no red card)

Df Jordan Cummings: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 40.24 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 93.72 (no red card)

Mf Khalid Idrissi: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 58.04 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 77.25 (no red card)

Mf Ghailene Bouzaiene: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 4.55 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 46.38 (no red card)

Mf Mikkel Hedegaard: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 80.26 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 2.16 (no red card)

Fw Gerry Maclaren: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 41.36 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 72.05 (no red card)

Fw Michaël Van der heijden: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 66.24 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 47.47 (no red card)

Fw Renato Cabanas: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 59.04 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 60.23 (no red card)
============================================================================
============================================================================
I  N  J  U  R  I  E  S

A major consequence of hardness is that your opponents get injured. 
For each player the chance of injury is:   
  ((your team’s hardness * .25) + (opponent’s hardness * .75) + 2.5)%.
    For example if your team has a hardness of 8 and the opposition has a hardness of 4,
    the chance of injury for each player would be: 2 + 3 + 2.5 or 7.5%.

The chance is halved for the opposition Gk. A player plays at half 
his normal level (skill plus fitness) in the match in which he is injured.

Injured players lose fitness as a result, the amount of fitness lost being
shown on the game report in brackets. There is a 30% chance of no fitness loss,
15% chance of 1 level fitness lost, 15% of 2 levels, and a 10% chance
of each of 3,4,5, or 6 fitness levels being lost. 
This fitness loss (if any) takes place at the end of the session, for 
reasons of simplicity. Should a player be injured twice or
more in a session, only the most severe injury will apply.


*******  BRISTOL CITY FC CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
   - Bristol City FC Team Hardness = 0
   - Swansea City AFC Team Hardness = 0
   - All (except Gk) chance of injury = 2.5%
   - Gk chance of injury = 1.25%
Gk Alberto Flores: Chance of injury = 1.25% | Random number = 60.3 (no injury) 
Df Mario Rojas: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 28.26 (no injury) 
Df Eugene Goodwin: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 13.43 (no injury) 
Mf Steven Simons: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 25.67 (no injury) 
Mf Efe Akpan: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 99.82 (no injury) 
Mf Rafal Karas: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 22.46 (no injury) 
Fw Dafydd Chapman: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 37.01 (no injury) 
Fw Mbark Sabiri: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 60.14 (no injury) 
Fw Jørn Nielsen: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 13.7 (no injury) 
Fw Ulf Helander: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 69.51 (no injury) 
Fw Tiago Pinto: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 65.11 (no injury) 

*******  SWANSEA CITY AFC CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
   - Swansea City AFC Team Hardness = 0
   - Bristol City FC Team Hardness = 0
   - All (except Gk) chance of injury = 2.5%
   - Gk chance of injury = 1.25%
Gk Jonas Suffo: Chance of injury = 1.25% | Random number = 12.99 (no injury) 
Df Enrique Masis: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 3.69 (no injury) 
Df Gharib Alami: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 81.25 (no injury) 
Df Miguel de la Cruz: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 35.98 (no injury) 
Df Jordan Cummings: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 18.72 (no injury) 
Mf Khalid Idrissi: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 61.47 (no injury) 
Mf Ghailene Bouzaiene: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 37.33 (no injury) 
Mf Mikkel Hedegaard: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 60.67 (no injury) 
Fw Gerry Maclaren: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 2.33 (INJURED!) 
      Targeted fitness lost = 4
      Gerry Maclaren is being assisted by the Physio. He will lose 3 fitness points (deducted at end of session)
      Gerry Maclaren new match skill level =  7
      Gerry Maclaren new match total level =  7
Fw Michaël Van der heijden: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 53.35 (no injury) 
Fw Renato Cabanas: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 7.0 (no injury) 
============================================================================
============================================================================
P  E  N  A  L  T  Y     K  I  C  K  S

There is a 10% chance of conceding a penalty for every hardness point used.
Each 10% chance is separate, so a team could concede as many penalties as it plays
hardness points. If no hardness is used, there is still a 5% penalty chance. 
The chance of a penalty being scored is: 
  50 + (4 x penalty takers skill) - (2 x Gk skill)  %    (to a maximum 95%)

*******  SWANSEA CITY AFC CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
   - Team Hardness: 0; (1 5% chance of yielding a PK)
   - PK Taker: Mario Rojas SL 13
   - Defending Gk: Jonas Suffo SL 11

     intRndPk = 4
1: Chance of PK occurring = 5% | Random number = 4 (PENALTY KICK!)
   Chance of scoring = 80% | Random number = 81 (PENALTY KICK GOOOAAALLL!!!)

*******  BRISTOL CITY FC CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
   - Team Hardness: 0; (1 5% chance of yielding a PK)
   - PK Taker: Michaël Van der heijden SL 15
   - Defending Gk: Alberto Flores SL 16

     intRndPk = 89
1: Chance of PK occurring = 5% | Random number = 89 (no penalty kick)
============================================================================
============================================================================
A  T  T  A  C  K  I  N  G      C  H  A  N  C  E  S      &      S  H  O  T  S

  (i)   If team A's Fw area total is greater than team B's Df area total, 
        then A earns a number of attacks equal to the difference.
        Note: A Sw  does NOT add his levels to the Df in this league! 

  (ii)  The team with the highest Mf area total gets attacks equal to half
        the difference.

  (iii) If team A's Df area total is greater than team B's Fw total, then  
        team A earns a number of attacks equal to one fifth of the difference.
        If team A is playing a sweeper behind the defence, this rises to one 
        third of the difference.  All fractions of attacks are rounded up, 
        and then each of the attacks is treated as follows to see how many 
        produce shots, then goals: 

  (iv)  Attacks have first to beat the Sw (if playing!).  For each attack,
        there is a percentage chance of it being stopped equal to:
              30 + (Sw level x 2) % 
        (eg a level 10 Sw stops 30+10x2=50% of attacks.) Attacks passing the 
        Sw become shots.

  (v)   Each shot has a 35% chance of being off-target. If a side has scored
        2 goals this rises to 40%, then by a further 5% after each goal scored,
        to a maximum of 75%. This is to curb ridiculous scorelines (with luck!)

  (vi)  Finally, on-target shots come up against the  Gk. This is similar to 
        the Sw test, but the percentage is:
        40 + (Gk level x 2.25) % 

  Notes: If the defense is playing offside trap then the offensive team has
         their Fw attacks cut in half and theor Mf attacks doubled.

         A team choosing to PFD has 7 extra levels to split between Sw, 
         Df and Mf areas, but their attacks for each area will be halved 
         (round up fractions).

*******  BRISTOL CITY FC ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
  AREA TOTALS             GK  Sw  Df  Mf  Fw
  -------------------------------------------
  Bristol City FC          15   0  24  29  60
  Swansea City AFC         13   0  40  35  33

Bristol City FC Fw Attacks = 20 (60 - 40); result rounded up
Bristol City FC Mf Attacks = 0 ((29 - 35) / 2;  rounded up)
Bristol City FC Df Attacks = 0 ((24 - 33) / 5;  rounded up)
Bristol City FC Total Attacks = 20

1: Attack for Fw Mbark Sabiri
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Swansea City AFC
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 79 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 69.25% | Random number = 73.01 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 
2: Attack for Fw Mbark Sabiri
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Swansea City AFC
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 25 (Shot Off Target) 
3: Attack for Fw Jørn Nielsen
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Swansea City AFC
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 36 (Shot Off Target) 
4: Attack for Fw Jørn Nielsen
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Swansea City AFC
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 31 (Shot Off Target) 
5: Attack for Fw Dafydd Chapman
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Swansea City AFC
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 32 (Shot Off Target) 
6: Attack for Fw Jørn Nielsen
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Swansea City AFC
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 25 (Shot Off Target) 
7: Attack for Fw Ulf Helander
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Swansea City AFC
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 81 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 69.25% | Random number = 85.62 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 
8: Attack for Fw Dafydd Chapman
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Swansea City AFC
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 45% | Random number = 59 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 69.25% | Random number = 58.24 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
9: Attack for Fw Jørn Nielsen
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Swansea City AFC
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 45% | Random number = 45 (Shot Off Target) 
10: Attack for Fw Dafydd Chapman
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Swansea City AFC
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 45% | Random number = 35 (Shot Off Target) 
11: Attack for Fw Jørn Nielsen
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Swansea City AFC
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 45% | Random number = 98 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 69.25% | Random number = 55.91 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
12: Attack for Fw Ulf Helander
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Swansea City AFC
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 45% | Random number = 57 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 69.25% | Random number = 71.42 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 
13: Attack for Fw Jørn Nielsen
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Swansea City AFC
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 50% | Random number = 16 (Shot Off Target) 
14: Attack for Fw Dafydd Chapman
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Swansea City AFC
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 50% | Random number = 3 (Shot Off Target) 
15: Attack for Fw Mbark Sabiri
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Swansea City AFC
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 50% | Random number = 87 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 69.25% | Random number = 92.6 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 
16: Attack for Fw Dafydd Chapman
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Swansea City AFC
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 55% | Random number = 27 (Shot Off Target) 
17: Attack for Fw Tiago Pinto
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Swansea City AFC
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 55% | Random number = 51 (Shot Off Target) 
18: Attack for Fw Tiago Pinto
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Swansea City AFC
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 55% | Random number = 24 (Shot Off Target) 
19: Attack for Fw Mbark Sabiri
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Swansea City AFC
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 55% | Random number = 10 (Shot Off Target) 
20: Attack for Fw Dafydd Chapman
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Swansea City AFC
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 55% | Random number = 74 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 69.25% | Random number = 79.71 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 

*******  SWANSEA CITY AFC ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
  AREA TOTALS             GK  Sw  Df  Mf  Fw
  -------------------------------------------
  Swansea City AFC         13   0  40  35  33
  Bristol City FC          15   0  24  29  60

Swansea City AFC Fw Attacks = 9 (33 - 24); result rounded up
Swansea City AFC Mf Attacks = 3 ((35 - 29) / 2) ; result rounded up
Swansea City AFC Df Attacks = 0 ((40 - 60) / 5;  rounded up)
Swansea City AFC Total Attacks = 12

1: Attack for Mf Ghailene Bouzaiene
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Bristol City FC
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 73 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 73.75% | Random number = 57.44 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
2: Attack for Mf Ghailene Bouzaiene
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Bristol City FC
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 45 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 73.75% | Random number = 61.89 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
3: Attack for Mf Khalid Idrissi
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Bristol City FC
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 38 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 73.75% | Random number = 91.98 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 
4: Attack for Fw Gerry Maclaren
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Bristol City FC
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 53 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 73.75% | Random number = 1.78 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
5: Attack for Fw Gerry Maclaren
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Bristol City FC
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 31 (Shot Off Target) 
6: Attack for Fw Michaël Van der heijden
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Bristol City FC
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 48 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 73.75% | Random number = 7.9 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
7: Attack for Fw Gerry Maclaren
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Bristol City FC
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 21 (Shot Off Target) 
8: Attack for Fw Gerry Maclaren
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Bristol City FC
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 89 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 73.75% | Random number = 90.96 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 
9: Attack for Fw Michaël Van der heijden
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Bristol City FC
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 54 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 73.75% | Random number = 88.16 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 
10: Attack for Fw Michaël Van der heijden
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Bristol City FC
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 45% | Random number = 89 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 73.75% | Random number = 34.6 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
11: Attack for Fw Renato Cabanas
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Bristol City FC
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 45% | Random number = 22 (Shot Off Target) 
12: Attack for Fw Renato Cabanas
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Bristol City FC
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 45% | Random number = 45 (Shot Off Target) 
===============================================
     F  I  N  A  L         S  C  O  R  E
BRISTOL CITY FC 6  -  SWANSEA CITY AFC 3
 
Match Notes
A repeat of the FA Cup result would be nice
Roger (Bristol City FC) 06/08 - 9:39 PM
Bit harsh on the Swans
Roger (Bristol City FC) 06/15 - 7:08 PM
 
 
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