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Harrogate Railway AFC
Allan Sellers
 
Luton Town FC
Mike Cabral
 
 
League Round 7
 
 
 
 
S  T  A  R  T  I  N  G      L  I  N  E  U  P  S

HARROGATE RAILWAY AFC                      LUTON TOWN FC

Ps Player Name            SL  FIT  LVL     Ps Player Name            SL  FIT  LVL
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gk Erik Holm              14    2   16     Gk Hayden Barnes          13    0   13
Sw Shane Sweeney          12    2   14     Sw Joel Strömberg         13    2   15
Df Freddy Arboleda        13    2   15     Df Philipp Koch           18    2   20
Df Fernando Silva         16    2   18     Df Frank Goodwin           7    2    9
Df Nathan Meldrum          7    2    9     Df Giovanni Esposito       3    2    5
Df Kund Gáspár             3    2    5     Df Martin Ward             3    2    5
Mf Cliff Gerrard          11    2   13     Mf Harley Ritchie          7    2    9
Mf Ross Browne             7    2    9     Mf Rhys Johnstone          7    2    9
Fw Justin Neumann         13    2   15     Fw Roberto Conti           7    2    9
Fw Ian Hunter             12    2   14     Fw Victor Jourdan          7    2    9
Fw Lee Collins             7    2    9     Fw Miguel Angel Ramos      3    2    5

      Gk Sw Df Mf Fw   A R E A  T O T A L S    Gk Sw Df Mf Fw
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
      16 14 47 22 38        ROSTER TOTALS      13 15 39 18 23    
       0  0  0  0  0          HARDNESS          0  0  0  0  0    
       0  0  0  0  9       HOME ADVANTAGE       0  0  0  0  0    
       0  0  0  0  0  GREAT PERFORMANCE POINTS  0  0  0  0  0    
       0  0  0  0  0        PLAY FOR DRAW       0  0  0  0  0    
=======================================================================
      16 14 47 22 47         T O T A L S       13 15 39 18 23    

============================================================================
============================================================================
B  O  O  K  I  N  G  S

Each player is next given a chance for a yellow/red card.  The first
number listed is the chance for the player to get the yellow/red
card while the second number shows the random number drawn.  If the 
random number is less than or equal to the player's yellow/red card 
chance then the player is sent off.  Note that the chances are as follows:
	- Booking: 1.5 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness))
	- Red Card: 0.25 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness)))

If a player is booked we immediately draw a second number to check
for a 'second yellow' (red card chance) resulting in a sending off.
If a player is not booked we draw a red card chance to see if the player
was given a straight red card.  Note that the aforementioned formula
differs for a Gk where the formula uses the hardness points added to
your Gk area and NOT the team hardness points.

*******  HARROGATE RAILWAY AFC YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
   - Team Hardness = 0
   - Gk   Hardness = 0

Gk Erik Holm: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 14.74 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 30.39 (no red card)

Sw Shane Sweeney: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 4.99 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 9.77 (no red card)

Df Freddy Arboleda: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 6.78 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 87.61 (no red card)

Df Fernando Silva: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 84.76 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 13.48 (no red card)

Df Nathan Meldrum: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 23.0 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 64.02 (no red card)

Df Kund Gáspár: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 79.76 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 90.8 (no red card)

Mf Cliff Gerrard: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 2.68 (BOOKED!) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 7.52 (no second yellow)

Mf Ross Browne: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 10.33 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 80.86 (no red card)

Fw Justin Neumann: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 39.15 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 20.33 (no red card)

Fw Ian Hunter: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 68.5 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 52.11 (no red card)

Fw Lee Collins: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 95.26 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 44.8 (no red card)

*******  LUTON TOWN FC YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
   - Team Hardness = 0
   - Gk   Hardness = 0

Gk Hayden Barnes: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 33.74 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 44.32 (no red card)

Sw Joel Strömberg: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 54.37 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 19.42 (no red card)

Df Philipp Koch: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 87.17 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 81.03 (no red card)

Df Frank Goodwin: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 7.5 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 6.36 (no red card)

Df Giovanni Esposito: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 14.99 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 37.77 (no red card)

Df Martin Ward: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 86.53 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 51.99 (no red card)

Mf Harley Ritchie: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 12.78 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 61.56 (no red card)

Mf Rhys Johnstone: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 97.26 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 22.37 (no red card)

Fw Roberto Conti: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 51.17 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 63.78 (no red card)

Fw Victor Jourdan: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 88.95 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 99.95 (no red card)

Fw Miguel Angel Ramos: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 31.12 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 0.61 (STRAIGHT RED CARD! SENT OFF!!!)
      Miguel Angel Ramos new match skill level =  2
      Miguel Angel Ramos new match total level =  4
============================================================================
============================================================================
I  N  J  U  R  I  E  S

A major consequence of hardness is that your opponents get injured. 
For each player the chance of injury is:   
  ((your team’s hardness * .25) + (opponent’s hardness * .75) + 2.5)%.
    For example if your team has a hardness of 8 and the opposition has a hardness of 4,
    the chance of injury for each player would be: 2 + 3 + 2.5 or 7.5%.

The chance is halved for the opposition Gk. A player plays at half 
his normal level (skill plus fitness) in the match in which he is injured.

Injured players lose fitness as a result, the amount of fitness lost being
shown on the game report in brackets. There is a 30% chance of no fitness loss,
15% chance of 1 level fitness lost, 15% of 2 levels, and a 10% chance
of each of 3,4,5, or 6 fitness levels being lost. 
This fitness loss (if any) takes place at the end of the session, for 
reasons of simplicity. Should a player be injured twice or
more in a session, only the most severe injury will apply.


*******  HARROGATE RAILWAY AFC CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
   - Harrogate Railway AFC Team Hardness = 0
   - Luton Town FC Team Hardness = 0
   - All (except Gk) chance of injury = 2.5%
   - Gk chance of injury = 1.25%
Gk Erik Holm: Chance of injury = 1.25% | Random number = 25.85 (no injury) 
Sw Shane Sweeney: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 99.76 (no injury) 
Df Freddy Arboleda: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 56.64 (no injury) 
Df Fernando Silva: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 80.51 (no injury) 
Df Nathan Meldrum: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 74.68 (no injury) 
Df Kund Gáspár: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 35.79 (no injury) 
Mf Cliff Gerrard: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 44.08 (no injury) 
Mf Ross Browne: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 62.29 (no injury) 
Fw Justin Neumann: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 23.48 (no injury) 
Fw Ian Hunter: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 41.29 (no injury) 
Fw Lee Collins: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 26.33 (no injury) 

*******  LUTON TOWN FC CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
   - Luton Town FC Team Hardness = 0
   - Harrogate Railway AFC Team Hardness = 0
   - All (except Gk) chance of injury = 2.5%
   - Gk chance of injury = 1.25%
Gk Hayden Barnes: Chance of injury = 1.25% | Random number = 9.0 (no injury) 
Sw Joel Strömberg: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 72.48 (no injury) 
Df Philipp Koch: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 89.08 (no injury) 
Df Frank Goodwin: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 89.58 (no injury) 
Df Giovanni Esposito: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 57.41 (no injury) 
Df Martin Ward: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 74.12 (no injury) 
Mf Harley Ritchie: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 94.5 (no injury) 
Mf Rhys Johnstone: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 38.23 (no injury) 
Fw Roberto Conti: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 72.15 (no injury) 
Fw Victor Jourdan: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 31.28 (no injury) 
Fw Miguel Angel Ramos: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 59.54 (no injury) 
============================================================================
============================================================================
P  E  N  A  L  T  Y     K  I  C  K  S

There is a 10% chance of conceding a penalty for every hardness point used.
Each 10% chance is separate, so a team could concede as many penalties as it plays
hardness points. If no hardness is used, there is still a 5% penalty chance. 
The chance of a penalty being scored is: 
  50 + (4 x penalty takers skill) - (2 x Gk skill)  %    (to a maximum 95%)

*******  LUTON TOWN FC CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
   - Team Hardness: 0; (1 5% chance of yielding a PK)
   - PK Taker: Fernando Silva SL 16
   - Defending Gk: Hayden Barnes SL 13

     intRndPk = 78
1: Chance of PK occurring = 5% | Random number = 78 (no penalty kick)

*******  HARROGATE RAILWAY AFC CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
   - Team Hardness: 0; (1 5% chance of yielding a PK)
   - PK Taker: Philipp Koch SL 18
   - Defending Gk: Erik Holm SL 14

     intRndPk = 53
1: Chance of PK occurring = 5% | Random number = 53 (no penalty kick)
============================================================================
============================================================================
A  T  T  A  C  K  I  N  G      C  H  A  N  C  E  S      &      S  H  O  T  S

  (i)   If team A's Fw area total is greater than team B's Df area total, 
        then A earns a number of attacks equal to the difference.
        Note: A Sw  does NOT add his levels to the Df in this league! 

  (ii)  The team with the highest Mf area total gets attacks equal to half
        the difference.

  (iii) If team A's Df area total is greater than team B's Fw total, then  
        team A earns a number of attacks equal to one fifth of the difference.
        If team A is playing a sweeper behind the defence, this rises to one 
        third of the difference.  All fractions of attacks are rounded up, 
        and then each of the attacks is treated as follows to see how many 
        produce shots, then goals: 

  (iv)  Attacks have first to beat the Sw (if playing!).  For each attack,
        there is a percentage chance of it being stopped equal to:
              30 + (Sw level x 2) % 
        (eg a level 10 Sw stops 30+10x2=50% of attacks.) Attacks passing the 
        Sw become shots.

  (v)   Each shot has a 35% chance of being off-target. If a side has scored
        2 goals this rises to 40%, then by a further 5% after each goal scored,
        to a maximum of 75%. This is to curb ridiculous scorelines (with luck!)

  (vi)  Finally, on-target shots come up against the  Gk. This is similar to 
        the Sw test, but the percentage is:
        40 + (Gk level x 2.25) % 

  Notes: If the defense is playing offside trap then the offensive team has
         their Fw attacks cut in half and theor Mf attacks doubled.

         A team choosing to PFD has 7 extra levels to split between Sw, 
         Df and Mf areas, but their attacks for each area will be halved 
         (round up fractions).

*******  HARROGATE RAILWAY AFC ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
  AREA TOTALS             GK  Sw  Df  Mf  Fw
  -------------------------------------------
  Harrogate Railway AFC    16  14  47  22  47
  Luton Town FC            13  15  39  18  22

Harrogate Railway AFC Fw Attacks = 8 (47 - 39); result rounded up
Harrogate Railway AFC Mf Attacks = 2 ((22 - 18) / 2) ; result rounded up
Harrogate Railway AFC Df Attacks = 9 ((47 - 22) / 3); result rounded up
Harrogate Railway AFC Total Attacks = 19

1: Attack for Df Freddy Arboleda
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 36 (Sw stopped attack) 
2: Attack for Df Fernando Silva
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 97 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 94 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 69.25% | Random number = 66.31 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
3: Attack for Df Fernando Silva
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 54 (Sw stopped attack) 
4: Attack for Df Fernando Silva
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 62 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 90 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 69.25% | Random number = 86.56 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 
5: Attack for Df Fernando Silva
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 36 (Sw stopped attack) 
6: Attack for Df Freddy Arboleda
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 4 (Sw stopped attack) 
7: Attack for Df Nathan Meldrum
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 4 (Sw stopped attack) 
8: Attack for Df Fernando Silva
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 56 (Sw stopped attack) 
9: Attack for Df Freddy Arboleda
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 77 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 5 (Shot Off Target) 
10: Attack for Mf Cliff Gerrard
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 7 (Sw stopped attack) 
11: Attack for Mf Cliff Gerrard
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 47 (Sw stopped attack) 
12: Attack for Fw Justin Neumann
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 48 (Sw stopped attack) 
13: Attack for Fw Lee Collins
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 94 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 24 (Shot Off Target) 
14: Attack for Fw Ian Hunter
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 36 (Sw stopped attack) 
15: Attack for Fw Ian Hunter
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 96 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 21 (Shot Off Target) 
16: Attack for Fw Ian Hunter
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 42 (Sw stopped attack) 
17: Attack for Fw Ian Hunter
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 14 (Sw stopped attack) 
18: Attack for Fw Justin Neumann
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 75 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 69 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 69.25% | Random number = 30.05 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
19: Attack for Fw Lee Collins
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 42 (Sw stopped attack) 

*******  LUTON TOWN FC ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
  AREA TOTALS             GK  Sw  Df  Mf  Fw
  -------------------------------------------
  Luton Town FC            13  15  39  18  22
  Harrogate Railway AFC    16  14  47  22  47

Luton Town FC Fw Attacks = 0 (22 - 47)
Luton Town FC Mf Attacks = 0 ((18 - 22) / 2;  rounded up)
Luton Town FC Df Attacks = 0 ((39 - 47) / 3;  rounded up)
Luton Town FC Total Attacks = 0

===============================================
     F  I  N  A  L         S  C  O  R  E
HARROGATE RAILWAY AFC 1  -  LUTON TOWN FC 0
 
Match Notes
Luton Town arrive. The Commish awaits. Somewhere in the universe, stars are collapsing. Here, Allan Sellers is doing his pre-match team talk. Both feel inevitable.
Olmec Head Marvin (Goole AFC) 06/01 - 7:30 PM  
Pre-match team talk was successful...barely....well played Mike!
Allan (Harrogate Railway AFC) 06/06 - 8:15 PM  
 
 
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