(H)
AFC Fylde
Phil McIntosh
Hyde FC
Carl Oakes
FA Cup Round 2
S T A R T I N G L I N E U P S
AFC FYLDE HYDE FC
Ps Player Name SL FIT LVL Ps Player Name SL FIT LVL
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Gk James MacLeod 14 2 16 Gk João Barbosa 12 2 14
Sw Benjamin White 13 1 14 Sw Connor Howard 10 1 11
Df Matheo Seguin 13 0 13 Df Michael Wright 13 1 14
Df Louis Hall 12 0 12 Df Marco Rodríguez 11 1 12
Df Jeff Hughes 9 1 10 Df Bobby Hill 6 2 8
Df Vilgot Falk 8 2 10 Mf Ashton Hill 13 1 14
Mf Angel Vazquez 14 -1 13 Mf Riley MacTavish 10 1 11
Mf Euan Barclay 16 1 17 Mf Jayden Grant 6 2 8
Fw William Peverell 15 1 16 Fw Dave Shilton 13 1 14
Fw Max Daly 11 0 11 Fw Jermaine Terry 14 1 15
Fw Ashley Ellis 10 0 10 Fw Tomas Morales 10 0 10
Gk Sw Df Mf Fw A R E A T O T A L S Gk Sw Df Mf Fw
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16 14 45 30 37 ROSTER TOTALS 14 11 34 33 39
0 0 0 0 0 HARDNESS 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 9 HOME ADVANTAGE 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 GREAT PERFORMANCE POINTS 3 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 PLAY FOR DRAW 0 0 0 0 0
=======================================================================
16 14 45 30 46 T O T A L S 17 11 34 33 39
============================================================================
============================================================================
B O O K I N G S
Each player is next given a chance for a yellow/red card. The first
number listed is the chance for the player to get the yellow/red
card while the second number shows the random number drawn. If the
random number is less than or equal to the player's yellow/red card
chance then the player is sent off. Note that the chances are as follows:
- Booking: 1.5 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness))
- Red Card: 0.25 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness)))
If a player is booked we immediately draw a second number to check
for a 'second yellow' (red card chance) resulting in a sending off.
If a player is not booked we draw a red card chance to see if the player
was given a straight red card. Note that the aforementioned formula
differs for a Gk where the formula uses the hardness points added to
your Gk area and NOT the team hardness points.
******* AFC FYLDE YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
- Team Hardness = 0
- Gk Hardness = 0
Gk James MacLeod: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 89.49 (no booking)
Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 85.54 (no red card)
Sw Benjamin White: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 37.5 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 27.58 (no red card)
Df Matheo Seguin: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 14.75 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 39.84 (no red card)
Df Louis Hall: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 83.12 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 2.9 (no red card)
Df Jeff Hughes: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 85.0 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 14.01 (no red card)
Df Vilgot Falk: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 13.75 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 98.92 (no red card)
Mf Angel Vazquez: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 75.56 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 43.36 (no red card)
Mf Euan Barclay: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 16.99 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 5.71 (no red card)
Fw William Peverell: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 97.82 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 92.05 (no red card)
Fw Max Daly: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 63.23 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 90.19 (no red card)
Fw Ashley Ellis: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 65.71 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 96.51 (no red card)
******* HYDE FC YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
- Team Hardness = 0
- Gk Hardness = 0
Gk João Barbosa: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 83.18 (no booking)
Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 81.11 (no red card)
Sw Connor Howard: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 23.97 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 32.16 (no red card)
Df Michael Wright: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 1.86 (BOOKED!)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 15.14 (no second yellow)
Df Marco Rodríguez: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 98.49 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 58.75 (no red card)
Df Bobby Hill: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 69.8 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 16.11 (no red card)
Mf Ashton Hill: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 24.88 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 19.67 (no red card)
Mf Riley MacTavish: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 21.64 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 71.82 (no red card)
Mf Jayden Grant: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 50.64 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 61.42 (no red card)
Fw Dave Shilton: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 19.96 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 90.7 (no red card)
Fw Jermaine Terry: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 69.23 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 81.69 (no red card)
Fw Tomas Morales: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 23.82 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 6.17 (no red card)
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I N J U R I E S
A major consequence of hardness is that your opponents get injured.
For each player the chance of injury is:
((your team’s hardness * .25) + (opponent’s hardness * .75) + 2.5)%.
For example if your team has a hardness of 8 and the opposition has a hardness of 4,
the chance of injury for each player would be: 2 + 3 + 2.5 or 7.5%.
The chance is halved for the opposition Gk. A player plays at half
his normal level (skill plus fitness) in the match in which he is injured.
Injured players lose fitness as a result, the amount of fitness lost being
shown on the game report in brackets. There is a 30% chance of no fitness loss,
15% chance of 1 level fitness lost, 15% of 2 levels, and a 10% chance
of each of 3,4,5, or 6 fitness levels being lost.
This fitness loss (if any) takes place at the end of the session, for
reasons of simplicity. Should a player be injured twice or
more in a session, only the most severe injury will apply.
******* AFC FYLDE CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
- AFC Fylde Team Hardness = 0
- Hyde FC Team Hardness = 0
- All (except Gk) chance of injury = 2.5%
- Gk chance of injury = 1.25%
Gk James MacLeod: Chance of injury = 1.25% | Random number = 29.79 (no injury)
Sw Benjamin White: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 46.63 (no injury)
Df Matheo Seguin: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 22.17 (no injury)
Df Louis Hall: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 94.2 (no injury)
Df Jeff Hughes: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 84.49 (no injury)
Df Vilgot Falk: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 5.59 (no injury)
Mf Angel Vazquez: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 43.48 (no injury)
Mf Euan Barclay: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 96.3 (no injury)
Fw William Peverell: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 21.29 (no injury)
Fw Max Daly: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 80.72 (no injury)
Fw Ashley Ellis: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 43.28 (no injury)
******* HYDE FC CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
- Hyde FC Team Hardness = 0
- AFC Fylde Team Hardness = 0
- All (except Gk) chance of injury = 2.5%
- Gk chance of injury = 1.25%
Gk João Barbosa: Chance of injury = 1.25% | Random number = 64.29 (no injury)
Sw Connor Howard: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 73.25 (no injury)
Df Michael Wright: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 88.81 (no injury)
Df Marco Rodríguez: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 39.97 (no injury)
Df Bobby Hill: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 58.84 (no injury)
Mf Ashton Hill: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 48.97 (no injury)
Mf Riley MacTavish: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 82.57 (no injury)
Mf Jayden Grant: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 24.04 (no injury)
Fw Dave Shilton: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 94.81 (no injury)
Fw Jermaine Terry: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 58.1 (no injury)
Fw Tomas Morales: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 67.47 (no injury)
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P E N A L T Y K I C K S
There is a 10% chance of conceding a penalty for every hardness point used.
Each 10% chance is separate, so a team could concede as many penalties as it plays
hardness points. If no hardness is used, there is still a 5% penalty chance.
The chance of a penalty being scored is:
50 + (4 x penalty takers skill) - (2 x Gk skill) % (to a maximum 95%)
******* HYDE FC CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
- Team Hardness: 0; (1 5% chance of yielding a PK)
- PK Taker: Euan Barclay SL 16
- Defending Gk: João Barbosa SL 12
intRndPk = 63
1: Chance of PK occurring = 5% | Random number = 63 (no penalty kick)
******* AFC FYLDE CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
- Team Hardness: 0; (1 5% chance of yielding a PK)
- PK Taker: Jermaine Terry SL 14
- Defending Gk: James MacLeod SL 14
intRndPk = 59
1: Chance of PK occurring = 5% | Random number = 59 (no penalty kick)
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A T T A C K I N G C H A N C E S & S H O T S
(i) If team A's Fw area total is greater than team B's Df area total,
then A earns a number of attacks equal to the difference.
Note: A Sw does NOT add his levels to the Df in this league!
(ii) The team with the highest Mf area total gets attacks equal to half
the difference.
(iii) If team A's Df area total is greater than team B's Fw total, then
team A earns a number of attacks equal to one fifth of the difference.
If team A is playing a sweeper behind the defence, this rises to one
third of the difference. All fractions of attacks are rounded up,
and then each of the attacks is treated as follows to see how many
produce shots, then goals:
(iv) Attacks have first to beat the Sw (if playing!). For each attack,
there is a percentage chance of it being stopped equal to:
30 + (Sw level x 2) %
(eg a level 10 Sw stops 30+10x2=50% of attacks.) Attacks passing the
Sw become shots.
(v) Each shot has a 35% chance of being off-target. If a side has scored
2 goals this rises to 40%, then by a further 5% after each goal scored,
to a maximum of 75%. This is to curb ridiculous scorelines (with luck!)
(vi) Finally, on-target shots come up against the Gk. This is similar to
the Sw test, but the percentage is:
40 + (Gk level x 2.25) %
Notes: If the defense is playing offside trap then the offensive team has
their Fw attacks cut in half and theor Mf attacks doubled.
A team choosing to PFD has 7 extra levels to split between Sw,
Df and Mf areas, but their attacks for each area will be halved
(round up fractions).
******* AFC FYLDE ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
AREA TOTALS GK Sw Df Mf Fw
-------------------------------------------
AFC Fylde 16 14 45 30 46
Hyde FC 17 11 34 33 39
AFC Fylde Fw Attacks = 12 (46 - 34); result rounded up
AFC Fylde Mf Attacks = 0 ((30 - 33) / 2; rounded up)
AFC Fylde Df Attacks = 2 ((45 - 39) / 3); result rounded up
AFC Fylde Total Attacks = 14
1: Attack for Df Louis Hall
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 47 (Sw stopped attack)
2: Attack for Df Louis Hall
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 86 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 22 (Shot Off Target)
3: Attack for Fw Ashley Ellis
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 45 (Sw stopped attack)
4: Attack for Fw William Peverell
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 60 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 2 (Shot Off Target)
5: Attack for Fw William Peverell
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 22 (Sw stopped attack)
6: Attack for Fw Max Daly
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 94 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 69 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 78.25% | Random number = 30.49 (Shot Saved by Gk)
7: Attack for Fw Ashley Ellis
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 96 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 97 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 78.25% | Random number = 31.53 (Shot Saved by Gk)
8: Attack for Fw William Peverell
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 93 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 91 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 78.25% | Random number = 52.12 (Shot Saved by Gk)
9: Attack for Fw Ashley Ellis
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 48 (Sw stopped attack)
10: Attack for Fw William Peverell
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 98 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 95 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 78.25% | Random number = 88.79 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!)
11: Attack for Fw William Peverell
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 36 (Sw stopped attack)
12: Attack for Fw Ashley Ellis
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 76 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 30 (Shot Off Target)
13: Attack for Fw William Peverell
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 32 (Sw stopped attack)
14: Attack for Fw William Peverell
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 25 (Sw stopped attack)
******* HYDE FC ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
AREA TOTALS GK Sw Df Mf Fw
-------------------------------------------
Hyde FC 17 11 34 33 39
AFC Fylde 16 14 45 30 46
Hyde FC Fw Attacks = 0 (39 - 45)
Hyde FC Mf Attacks = 2 ((33 - 30) / 2) ; result rounded up
Hyde FC Df Attacks = 0 ((34 - 46) / 3; rounded up)
Hyde FC Total Attacks = 2
1: Attack for Mf Ashton Hill
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 58% | Random number = 60 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 83 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 76.0% | Random number = 37.36 (Shot Saved by Gk)
2: Attack for Mf Riley MacTavish
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 58% | Random number = 20 (Sw stopped attack)
===============================================
F I N A L S C O R E
AFC FYLDE 1 - HYDE FC 0
Match Notes
This will be a very tall task
Carl (Hyde FC) 05/17 - 6:04 AM
The FA Cup. A trophy. Carl's team. I have calculated the probability of this ending well for Hyde and the number is not one that inspires optimism, even by my standards.
Olmec Head Marvin (Goole AFC) 05/18 - 7:30 PM
Checklist Carl, allergic to trophies as advertised, exits the cup having apparently misplaced the goal. Some systematic low-risk processes produce zero goals, which is its own kind of achievement.
Olmec Head Marvin (Goole AFC) 05/23 - 7:30 PM
We could easily have been embarrassed there
Carl (Hyde FC) 05/24 - 8:20 AM