(H)
AFC Wimbledon
Dave Dohm
Welling United FC
Eduard Habermann
League Round 17
S T A R T I N G L I N E U P S
AFC WIMBLEDON WELLING UNITED FC
Ps Player Name SL FIT LVL Ps Player Name SL FIT LVL
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Gk Guillaume Hebert 16 2 18 Gk Robert Morgan 16 -1 15
Sw Jamie Aikenhead 15 2 17 Sw Archie Milner 15 1 16
Df Ryan Barber 16 2 18 Df Gordon Brown 17 1 18
Df Elias Schneider 9 2 11 Df Devon Allen 13 2 15
Mf Kenny Fitzgerald 15 2 17 Mf Evan Burns 17 2 19
Mf Nigel Howells 13 2 15 Mf Sylar Kelley 17 2 19
Mf Callum Blake 9 2 11 Fw Lincoln Johnson 14 1 15
Mf Ben Butcher 15 2 17 Fw William Murphy 14 2 16
Mf Peter Harding 12 2 14 Fw Marcos Azevedo 13 2 15
Fw Alberto Gomez 13 2 15 Fw Evan Gerrard 13 2 15
Fw Brian Sanchez 9 2 11 Fw Arran Fergus 13 2 15
Gk Sw Df Mf Fw A R E A T O T A L S Gk Sw Df Mf Fw
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18 17 29 74 26 ROSTER TOTALS 15 16 33 38 76
1 0 0 0 0 HARDNESS 0 3 0 0 0
0 0 9 0 0 HOME ADVANTAGE 0 0 0 0 0
2 0 0 0 0 GREAT PERFORMANCE POINTS 3 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 PLAY FOR DRAW 0 0 0 0 0
=======================================================================
21 17 38 74 26 T O T A L S 18 19 33 38 76
============================================================================
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B O O K I N G S
Each player is next given a chance for a yellow/red card. The first
number listed is the chance for the player to get the yellow/red
card while the second number shows the random number drawn. If the
random number is less than or equal to the player's yellow/red card
chance then the player is sent off. Note that the chances are as follows:
- Booking: 1.5 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness))
- Red Card: 0.25 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness)))
If a player is booked we immediately draw a second number to check
for a 'second yellow' (red card chance) resulting in a sending off.
If a player is not booked we draw a red card chance to see if the player
was given a straight red card. Note that the aforementioned formula
differs for a Gk where the formula uses the hardness points added to
your Gk area and NOT the team hardness points.
******* AFC WIMBLEDON YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
- Team Hardness = 1
- Gk Hardness = 1
Gk Guillaume Hebert: Chance of booking = 6.75% | Random number = 80.91 (no booking)
Chance of straight red card = 1.0% | Random number = 34.71 (no red card)
Sw Jamie Aikenhead: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 96.35 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 72.72 (no red card)
Df Ryan Barber: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 64.25 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 90.57 (no red card)
Df Elias Schneider: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 22.75 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 51.8 (no red card)
Mf Kenny Fitzgerald: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 23.24 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 22.4 (no red card)
Mf Nigel Howells: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 44.45 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 5.81 (no red card)
Mf Callum Blake: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 87.2 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 75.02 (no red card)
Mf Ben Butcher: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 86.38 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 95.61 (no red card)
Mf Peter Harding: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 51.82 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 46.33 (no red card)
Fw Alberto Gomez: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 88.26 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 87.05 (no red card)
Fw Brian Sanchez: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 88.91 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 72.8 (no red card)
******* WELLING UNITED FC YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
- Team Hardness = 3
- Gk Hardness = 0
Gk Robert Morgan: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 58.89 (no booking)
Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 67.08 (no red card)
Sw Archie Milner: Chance of booking = 9.0% | Random number = 78.14 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 1.5% | Random number = 50.43 (no red card)
Df Gordon Brown: Chance of booking = 9.0% | Random number = 84.01 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 1.5% | Random number = 79.65 (no red card)
Df Devon Allen: Chance of booking = 9.0% | Random number = 71.03 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 1.5% | Random number = 59.42 (no red card)
Mf Evan Burns: Chance of booking = 9.0% | Random number = 18.77 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 1.5% | Random number = 12.75 (no red card)
Mf Sylar Kelley: Chance of booking = 9.0% | Random number = 78.67 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 1.5% | Random number = 77.61 (no red card)
Fw Lincoln Johnson: Chance of booking = 9.0% | Random number = 66.36 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 1.5% | Random number = 0.21 (STRAIGHT RED CARD! SENT OFF!!!)
Lincoln Johnson new match skill level = 7
Lincoln Johnson new match total level = 8
Fw William Murphy: Chance of booking = 9.0% | Random number = 69.64 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 1.5% | Random number = 22.63 (no red card)
Fw Marcos Azevedo: Chance of booking = 9.0% | Random number = 28.04 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 1.5% | Random number = 4.4 (no red card)
Fw Evan Gerrard: Chance of booking = 9.0% | Random number = 84.29 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 1.5% | Random number = 76.17 (no red card)
Fw Arran Fergus: Chance of booking = 9.0% | Random number = 54.6 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 1.5% | Random number = 72.62 (no red card)
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============================================================================
I N J U R I E S
A major consequence of hardness is that your opponents get injured.
For each player the chance of injury is:
((your team’s hardness * .25) + (opponent’s hardness * .75) + 2.5)%.
For example if your team has a hardness of 8 and the opposition has a hardness of 4,
the chance of injury for each player would be: 2 + 3 + 2.5 or 7.5%.
The chance is halved for the opposition Gk. A player plays at half
his normal level (skill plus fitness) in the match in which he is injured.
Injured players lose fitness as a result, the amount of fitness lost being
shown on the game report in brackets. There is a 30% chance of no fitness loss,
15% chance of 1 level fitness lost, 15% of 2 levels, and a 10% chance
of each of 3,4,5, or 6 fitness levels being lost.
This fitness loss (if any) takes place at the end of the session, for
reasons of simplicity. Should a player be injured twice or
more in a session, only the most severe injury will apply.
******* AFC WIMBLEDON CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
- AFC Wimbledon Team Hardness = 1
- Welling United FC Team Hardness = 3
- All (except Gk) chance of injury = 5.0%
- Gk chance of injury = 2.5%
Gk Guillaume Hebert: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 23.75 (no injury)
Sw Jamie Aikenhead: Chance of injury = 5.0% | Random number = 2.65 (INJURED!)
Targeted fitness lost = 4
Jamie Aikenhead is being assisted by the Physio. He will lose 3 fitness points (deducted at end of session)
Jamie Aikenhead new match skill level = 8
Jamie Aikenhead new match total level = 10
Df Ryan Barber: Chance of injury = 5.0% | Random number = 39.78 (no injury)
Df Elias Schneider: Chance of injury = 5.0% | Random number = 26.65 (no injury)
Mf Kenny Fitzgerald: Chance of injury = 5.0% | Random number = 92.17 (no injury)
Mf Nigel Howells: Chance of injury = 5.0% | Random number = 0.55 (INJURED!)
Targeted fitness lost = 1
Nigel Howells is being assisted by the Physio. He won't lose any fitness points, but he'll have to come off.
Nigel Howells new match skill level = 7
Nigel Howells new match total level = 9
Mf Callum Blake: Chance of injury = 5.0% | Random number = 26.15 (no injury)
Mf Ben Butcher: Chance of injury = 5.0% | Random number = 73.94 (no injury)
Mf Peter Harding: Chance of injury = 5.0% | Random number = 68.81 (no injury)
Fw Alberto Gomez: Chance of injury = 5.0% | Random number = 20.4 (no injury)
Fw Brian Sanchez: Chance of injury = 5.0% | Random number = 12.16 (no injury)
******* WELLING UNITED FC CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
- Welling United FC Team Hardness = 3
- AFC Wimbledon Team Hardness = 1
- All (except Gk) chance of injury = 4.0%
- Gk chance of injury = 2.0%
Gk Robert Morgan: Chance of injury = 2.0% | Random number = 3.59 (no injury)
Sw Archie Milner: Chance of injury = 4.0% | Random number = 44.86 (no injury)
Df Gordon Brown: Chance of injury = 4.0% | Random number = 75.34 (no injury)
Df Devon Allen: Chance of injury = 4.0% | Random number = 66.01 (no injury)
Mf Evan Burns: Chance of injury = 4.0% | Random number = 26.06 (no injury)
Mf Sylar Kelley: Chance of injury = 4.0% | Random number = 27.26 (no injury)
Fw Lincoln Johnson: Chance of injury = 4.0% | Random number = 15.85 (no injury)
Fw William Murphy: Chance of injury = 4.0% | Random number = 49.17 (no injury)
Fw Marcos Azevedo: Chance of injury = 4.0% | Random number = 56.23 (no injury)
Fw Evan Gerrard: Chance of injury = 4.0% | Random number = 32.71 (no injury)
Fw Arran Fergus: Chance of injury = 4.0% | Random number = 73.91 (no injury)
============================================================================
============================================================================
P E N A L T Y K I C K S
There is a 10% chance of conceding a penalty for every hardness point used.
Each 10% chance is separate, so a team could concede as many penalties as it plays
hardness points. If no hardness is used, there is still a 5% penalty chance.
The chance of a penalty being scored is:
50 + (4 x penalty takers skill) - (2 x Gk skill) % (to a maximum 95%)
******* WELLING UNITED FC CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
- Team Hardness: 3; (3 10% chances of yielding PKs)
- PK Taker: Ryan Barber SL 16
- Defending Gk: Robert Morgan SL 16
1: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 28 (no penalty kick)
2: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 21 (no penalty kick)
3: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 93 (no penalty kick)
******* AFC WIMBLEDON CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
- Team Hardness: 1; (1 10% chance of yielding a PK)
- PK Taker: Gordon Brown SL 17
- Defending Gk: Guillaume Hebert SL 16
1: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 81 (no penalty kick)
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A T T A C K I N G C H A N C E S & S H O T S
(i) If team A's Fw area total is greater than team B's Df area total,
then A earns a number of attacks equal to the difference.
Note: A Sw does NOT add his levels to the Df in this league!
(ii) The team with the highest Mf area total gets attacks equal to half
the difference.
(iii) If team A's Df area total is greater than team B's Fw total, then
team A earns a number of attacks equal to one fifth of the difference.
If team A is playing a sweeper behind the defence, this rises to one
third of the difference. All fractions of attacks are rounded up,
and then each of the attacks is treated as follows to see how many
produce shots, then goals:
(iv) Attacks have first to beat the Sw (if playing!). For each attack,
there is a percentage chance of it being stopped equal to:
30 + (Sw level x 2) %
(eg a level 10 Sw stops 30+10x2=50% of attacks.) Attacks passing the
Sw become shots.
(v) Each shot has a 35% chance of being off-target. If a side has scored
2 goals this rises to 40%, then by a further 5% after each goal scored,
to a maximum of 75%. This is to curb ridiculous scorelines (with luck!)
(vi) Finally, on-target shots come up against the Gk. This is similar to
the Sw test, but the percentage is:
40 + (Gk level x 2.25) %
Notes: If the defense is playing offside trap then the offensive team has
their Fw attacks cut in half and theor Mf attacks doubled.
A team choosing to PFD has 7 extra levels to split between Sw,
Df and Mf areas, but their attacks for each area will be halved
(round up fractions).
******* AFC WIMBLEDON ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
AREA TOTALS GK Sw Df Mf Fw
-------------------------------------------
AFC Wimbledon 21 10 38 68 26
Welling United FC 18 19 33 38 69
AFC Wimbledon Fw Attacks = 0 (26 - 33)
AFC Wimbledon Mf Attacks = 15 ((68 - 38) / 2) ; result rounded up
AFC Wimbledon Df Attacks = 0 ((38 - 69) / 3; rounded up)
AFC Wimbledon Total Attacks = 15
1: Attack for Mf Kenny Fitzgerald
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 68% | Random number = 29 (Sw stopped attack)
2: Attack for Mf Peter Harding
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 68% | Random number = 99 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 13 (Shot Off Target)
3: Attack for Mf Peter Harding
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 68% | Random number = 89 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 28 (Shot Off Target)
4: Attack for Mf Nigel Howells
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 68% | Random number = 82 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 49 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 80.5% | Random number = 88.7 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!)
5: Attack for Mf Kenny Fitzgerald
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 68% | Random number = 40 (Sw stopped attack)
6: Attack for Mf Peter Harding
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 68% | Random number = 49 (Sw stopped attack)
7: Attack for Mf Nigel Howells
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 68% | Random number = 85 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 95 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 80.5% | Random number = 39.74 (Shot Saved by Gk)
8: Attack for Mf Callum Blake
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 68% | Random number = 10 (Sw stopped attack)
9: Attack for Mf Kenny Fitzgerald
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 68% | Random number = 70 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 59 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 80.5% | Random number = 64.66 (Shot Saved by Gk)
10: Attack for Mf Peter Harding
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 68% | Random number = 73 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 34 (Shot Off Target)
11: Attack for Mf Ben Butcher
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 68% | Random number = 7 (Sw stopped attack)
12: Attack for Mf Peter Harding
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 68% | Random number = 76 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 10 (Shot Off Target)
13: Attack for Mf Ben Butcher
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 68% | Random number = 10 (Sw stopped attack)
14: Attack for Mf Callum Blake
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 68% | Random number = 42 (Sw stopped attack)
15: Attack for Mf Callum Blake
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 68% | Random number = 8 (Sw stopped attack)
******* WELLING UNITED FC ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
AREA TOTALS GK Sw Df Mf Fw
-------------------------------------------
Welling United FC 18 19 33 38 69
AFC Wimbledon 21 10 38 68 26
Welling United FC Fw Attacks = 31 (69 - 38); result rounded up
Welling United FC Mf Attacks = 0 ((38 - 68) / 2; rounded up)
Welling United FC Df Attacks = 3 ((33 - 26) / 3); result rounded up
Welling United FC Total Attacks = 34
1: Attack for Df Gordon Brown
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 50% | Random number = 76 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 51 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 87.25% | Random number = 19.21 (Shot Saved by Gk)
2: Attack for Df Gordon Brown
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 50% | Random number = 62 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 79 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 87.25% | Random number = 78.97 (Shot Saved by Gk)
3: Attack for Df Gordon Brown
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 50% | Random number = 87 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 6 (Shot Off Target)
4: Attack for Fw William Murphy
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 50% | Random number = 25 (Sw stopped attack)
5: Attack for Fw Lincoln Johnson
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 50% | Random number = 90 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 32 (Shot Off Target)
6: Attack for Fw Arran Fergus
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 50% | Random number = 79 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 14 (Shot Off Target)
7: Attack for Fw William Murphy
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 50% | Random number = 73 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 4 (Shot Off Target)
8: Attack for Fw Arran Fergus
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 50% | Random number = 49 (Sw stopped attack)
9: Attack for Fw William Murphy
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 50% | Random number = 80 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 30 (Shot Off Target)
10: Attack for Fw Arran Fergus
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 50% | Random number = 24 (Sw stopped attack)
11: Attack for Fw Lincoln Johnson
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 50% | Random number = 28 (Sw stopped attack)
12: Attack for Fw Evan Gerrard
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 50% | Random number = 31 (Sw stopped attack)
13: Attack for Fw Marcos Azevedo
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 50% | Random number = 55 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 42 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 87.25% | Random number = 81.0 (Shot Saved by Gk)
14: Attack for Fw Marcos Azevedo
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 50% | Random number = 77 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 42 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 87.25% | Random number = 53.84 (Shot Saved by Gk)
15: Attack for Fw Marcos Azevedo
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 50% | Random number = 14 (Sw stopped attack)
16: Attack for Fw William Murphy
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 50% | Random number = 43 (Sw stopped attack)
17: Attack for Fw Arran Fergus
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 50% | Random number = 76 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 2 (Shot Off Target)
18: Attack for Fw Marcos Azevedo
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 50% | Random number = 95 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 84 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 87.25% | Random number = 18.68 (Shot Saved by Gk)
19: Attack for Fw Evan Gerrard
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 50% | Random number = 22 (Sw stopped attack)
20: Attack for Fw Marcos Azevedo
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 50% | Random number = 73 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 100 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 87.25% | Random number = 13.36 (Shot Saved by Gk)
21: Attack for Fw William Murphy
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 50% | Random number = 2 (Sw stopped attack)
22: Attack for Fw Arran Fergus
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 50% | Random number = 64 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 76 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 87.25% | Random number = 84.52 (Shot Saved by Gk)
23: Attack for Fw William Murphy
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 50% | Random number = 21 (Sw stopped attack)
24: Attack for Fw Evan Gerrard
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 50% | Random number = 14 (Sw stopped attack)
25: Attack for Fw William Murphy
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 50% | Random number = 81 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 48 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 87.25% | Random number = 73.94 (Shot Saved by Gk)
26: Attack for Fw William Murphy
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 50% | Random number = 46 (Sw stopped attack)
27: Attack for Fw Arran Fergus
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 50% | Random number = 26 (Sw stopped attack)
28: Attack for Fw Evan Gerrard
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 50% | Random number = 40 (Sw stopped attack)
29: Attack for Fw Arran Fergus
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 50% | Random number = 34 (Sw stopped attack)
30: Attack for Fw Arran Fergus
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 50% | Random number = 36 (Sw stopped attack)
31: Attack for Fw William Murphy
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 50% | Random number = 31 (Sw stopped attack)
32: Attack for Fw Evan Gerrard
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 50% | Random number = 16 (Sw stopped attack)
33: Attack for Fw William Murphy
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 50% | Random number = 64 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 26 (Shot Off Target)
34: Attack for Fw Marcos Azevedo
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 50% | Random number = 80 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 63 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 87.25% | Random number = 79.96 (Shot Saved by Gk)
===============================================
F I N A L S C O R E
AFC WIMBLEDON 1 - WELLING UNITED FC 0
Match Notes
Can Dave catch Eduard if he wins by 10 goals? 🤔
~ Allan ~ Jul 6 (Harrogate Railway AFC)
Eduard takes his side to Wimbledon. Somewhere, a football match will occur. I have calculated all possible outcomes and found them equally unremarkable.
~ Olmec Head Marvin ~ Jul 6 (Goole AFC)
Umm...no! Thanks for rubbing it in
~ Dave ~ Jul 9 (AFC Wimbledon)
Was Eduard focus on the cup final
~ Carl ~ Jul 12 (Hyde FC)
The goal was to win both
~ Eduard ~ Jul 12 (Welling United FC)
And it's not too bad if you can keep WIM's home win % under 20
~ Eduard ~ Jul 12 (Welling United FC)
OLMEC had other plans, though
~ Eduard ~ Jul 12 (Welling United FC)