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Forest Green Rovers FC
Mark Creasey
 
AFC Fylde
Phil McIntosh
 
 
League Round 16
 
 
 
 

S  T  A  R  T  I  N  G      L  I  N  E  U  P  S

FOREST GREEN ROVERS FC                     AFC FYLDE

Ps Player Name            SL  FIT  LVL     Ps Player Name            SL  FIT  LVL
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gk Maximilian Isaksson    12    0   12     Gk James MacLeod          15    2   17
Df Mateo Hernández         7    1    8     Sw Benjamin White          4   -1    3
Df Theo Cole               7    0    7     Df Ryan Lasserre          16   -1   15
Df Ellis Fisher            7    1    8     Df Jeff Hughes            13    1   14
Df Luca Cole               6    0    6     Df Matheo Seguin           9    2   11
Mf Martin Kristensen       7    2    9     Df Vilgot Falk             4    2    6
Mf Alfredo Vargas          7    2    9     Mf Euan Barclay            9    2   11
Mf Devon Lennon            4    0    4     Mf Samuel Cabral           8    2   10
Mf Taylor Gerrard          4    2    6     Mf Angel Vazquez           4    2    6
Fw Tom Stevenson          17    2   19     Fw Max Daly                8    2   10
Fw Andrew Williamson      13    2   15     Fw William Peverell        4    2    6

      Gk Sw Df Mf Fw   A R E A  T O T A L S    Gk Sw Df Mf Fw
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
      12  0 29 28 34        ROSTER TOTALS      17  3 46 27 16    
       0  0  0  0  0          HARDNESS          0  0  0  0  0    
       0  0  0  0  9       HOME ADVANTAGE       0  0  0  0  0    
       0  0  0  0  0  GREAT PERFORMANCE POINTS  0  0  0  0  0    
       0  0  0  0  0        PLAY FOR DRAW       0  0  0  0  0    
=======================================================================
      12  0 29 28 43         T O T A L S       17  3 46 27 16    

============================================================================
============================================================================
B  O  O  K  I  N  G  S

Each player is next given a chance for a yellow/red card.  The first
number listed is the chance for the player to get the yellow/red
card while the second number shows the random number drawn.  If the 
random number is less than or equal to the player's yellow/red card 
chance then the player is sent off.  Note that the chances are as follows:
	- Booking: 1.5 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness))
	- Red Card: 0.25 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness)))

If a player is booked we immediately draw a second number to check
for a 'second yellow' (red card chance) resulting in a sending off.
If a player is not booked we draw a red card chance to see if the player
was given a straight red card.  Note that the aforementioned formula
differs for a Gk where the formula uses the hardness points added to
your Gk area and NOT the team hardness points.

*******  FOREST GREEN ROVERS FC YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
   - Team Hardness = 0
   - Gk   Hardness = 0

Gk Maximilian Isaksson: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 60.74 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 38.61 (no red card)

Df Mateo Hernández: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 93.78 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 80.22 (no red card)

Df Theo Cole: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 20.1 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 68.19 (no red card)

Df Ellis Fisher: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 28.73 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 55.88 (no red card)

Df Luca Cole: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 80.73 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 28.6 (no red card)

Mf Martin Kristensen: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 78.55 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 67.97 (no red card)

Mf Alfredo Vargas: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 90.03 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 65.38 (no red card)

Mf Devon Lennon: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 70.78 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 12.72 (no red card)

Mf Taylor Gerrard: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 50.94 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 47.24 (no red card)

Fw Tom Stevenson: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 47.86 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 59.89 (no red card)

Fw Andrew Williamson: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 56.3 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 40.65 (no red card)

*******  AFC FYLDE YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
   - Team Hardness = 0
   - Gk   Hardness = 0

Gk James MacLeod: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 4.4 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 43.22 (no red card)

Sw Benjamin White: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 85.39 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 18.52 (no red card)

Df Ryan Lasserre: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 86.42 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 17.57 (no red card)

Df Jeff Hughes: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 85.36 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 27.68 (no red card)

Df Matheo Seguin: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 87.33 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 96.2 (no red card)

Df Vilgot Falk: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 60.9 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 65.78 (no red card)

Mf Euan Barclay: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 99.03 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 10.64 (no red card)

Mf Samuel Cabral: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 38.51 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 23.34 (no red card)

Mf Angel Vazquez: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 11.44 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 48.32 (no red card)

Fw Max Daly: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 35.06 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 86.98 (no red card)

Fw William Peverell: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 51.88 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 23.46 (no red card)
============================================================================
============================================================================
I  N  J  U  R  I  E  S

A major consequence of hardness is that your opponents get injured. 
For each player the chance of injury is:   
  ((your team’s hardness * .25) + (opponent’s hardness * .75) + 2.5)%.
    For example if your team has a hardness of 8 and the opposition has a hardness of 4,
    the chance of injury for each player would be: 2 + 3 + 2.5 or 7.5%.

The chance is halved for the opposition Gk. A player plays at half 
his normal level (skill plus fitness) in the match in which he is injured.

Injured players lose fitness as a result, the amount of fitness lost being
shown on the game report in brackets. There is a 30% chance of no fitness loss,
15% chance of 1 level fitness lost, 15% of 2 levels, and a 10% chance
of each of 3,4,5, or 6 fitness levels being lost. 
This fitness loss (if any) takes place at the end of the session, for 
reasons of simplicity. Should a player be injured twice or
more in a session, only the most severe injury will apply.


*******  FOREST GREEN ROVERS FC CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
   - Forest Green Rovers FC Team Hardness = 0
   - AFC Fylde Team Hardness = 0
   - All (except Gk) chance of injury = 2.5%
   - Gk chance of injury = 1.25%
Gk Maximilian Isaksson: Chance of injury = 1.25% | Random number = 67.27 (no injury) 
Df Mateo Hernández: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 95.14 (no injury) 
Df Theo Cole: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 25.07 (no injury) 
Df Ellis Fisher: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 47.56 (no injury) 
Df Luca Cole: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 45.6 (no injury) 
Mf Martin Kristensen: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 16.91 (no injury) 
Mf Alfredo Vargas: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 86.46 (no injury) 
Mf Devon Lennon: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 41.74 (no injury) 
Mf Taylor Gerrard: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 75.09 (no injury) 
Fw Tom Stevenson: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 81.75 (no injury) 
Fw Andrew Williamson: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 38.71 (no injury) 

*******  AFC FYLDE CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
   - AFC Fylde Team Hardness = 0
   - Forest Green Rovers FC Team Hardness = 0
   - All (except Gk) chance of injury = 2.5%
   - Gk chance of injury = 1.25%
Gk James MacLeod: Chance of injury = 1.25% | Random number = 70.39 (no injury) 
Sw Benjamin White: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 11.95 (no injury) 
Df Ryan Lasserre: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 14.59 (no injury) 
Df Jeff Hughes: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 60.77 (no injury) 
Df Matheo Seguin: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 56.11 (no injury) 
Df Vilgot Falk: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 20.35 (no injury) 
Mf Euan Barclay: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 81.42 (no injury) 
Mf Samuel Cabral: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 72.14 (no injury) 
Mf Angel Vazquez: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 87.16 (no injury) 
Fw Max Daly: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 62.19 (no injury) 
Fw William Peverell: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 17.15 (no injury) 
============================================================================
============================================================================
P  E  N  A  L  T  Y     K  I  C  K  S

There is a 10% chance of conceding a penalty for every hardness point used.
Each 10% chance is separate, so a team could concede as many penalties as it plays
hardness points. If no hardness is used, there is still a 5% penalty chance. 
The chance of a penalty being scored is: 
  50 + (4 x penalty takers skill) - (2 x Gk skill)  %    (to a maximum 95%)

*******  AFC FYLDE CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
   - Team Hardness: 0; (1 5% chance of yielding a PK)
   - PK Taker: Tom Stevenson SL 17
   - Defending Gk: James MacLeod SL 15

     intRndPk = 17
1: Chance of PK occurring = 5% | Random number = 17 (no penalty kick)

*******  FOREST GREEN ROVERS FC CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
   - Team Hardness: 0; (1 5% chance of yielding a PK)
   - PK Taker: Ryan Lasserre SL 16
   - Defending Gk: Maximilian Isaksson SL 12

     intRndPk = 3
1: Chance of PK occurring = 5% | Random number = 3 (PENALTY KICK!)
   Chance of scoring = 90% | Random number = 49 (PENALTY KICK GOOOAAALLL!!!)
============================================================================
============================================================================
A  T  T  A  C  K  I  N  G      C  H  A  N  C  E  S      &      S  H  O  T  S

  (i)   If team A's Fw area total is greater than team B's Df area total, 
        then A earns a number of attacks equal to the difference.
        Note: A Sw  does NOT add his levels to the Df in this league! 

  (ii)  The team with the highest Mf area total gets attacks equal to half
        the difference.

  (iii) If team A's Df area total is greater than team B's Fw total, then  
        team A earns a number of attacks equal to one fifth of the difference.
        If team A is playing a sweeper behind the defence, this rises to one 
        third of the difference.  All fractions of attacks are rounded up, 
        and then each of the attacks is treated as follows to see how many 
        produce shots, then goals: 

  (iv)  Attacks have first to beat the Sw (if playing!).  For each attack,
        there is a percentage chance of it being stopped equal to:
              30 + (Sw level x 2) % 
        (eg a level 10 Sw stops 30+10x2=50% of attacks.) Attacks passing the 
        Sw become shots.

  (v)   Each shot has a 35% chance of being off-target. If a side has scored
        2 goals this rises to 40%, then by a further 5% after each goal scored,
        to a maximum of 75%. This is to curb ridiculous scorelines (with luck!)

  (vi)  Finally, on-target shots come up against the  Gk. This is similar to 
        the Sw test, but the percentage is:
        40 + (Gk level x 2.25) % 

  Notes: If the defense is playing offside trap then the offensive team has
         their Fw attacks cut in half and theor Mf attacks doubled.

         A team choosing to PFD has 7 extra levels to split between Sw, 
         Df and Mf areas, but their attacks for each area will be halved 
         (round up fractions).

*******  FOREST GREEN ROVERS FC ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
  AREA TOTALS             GK  Sw  Df  Mf  Fw
  -------------------------------------------
  Forest Green Rovers FC   12   0  29  28  43
  AFC Fylde                17   3  46  27  16

Forest Green Rovers FC Fw Attacks = 0 (43 - 46)
Forest Green Rovers FC Mf Attacks = 1 ((28 - 27) / 2) ; result rounded up
Forest Green Rovers FC Df Attacks = 3 ((29 - 16) / 5); result rounded up
Forest Green Rovers FC Total Attacks = 4

1: Attack for Df Mateo Hernández
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 36% | Random number = 3 (Sw stopped attack) 
2: Attack for Df Luca Cole
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 36% | Random number = 81 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 16 (Shot Off Target) 
3: Attack for Df Theo Cole
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 36% | Random number = 100 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 25 (Shot Off Target) 
4: Attack for Mf Devon Lennon
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 36% | Random number = 37 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 16 (Shot Off Target) 

*******  AFC FYLDE ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
  AREA TOTALS             GK  Sw  Df  Mf  Fw
  -------------------------------------------
  AFC Fylde                17   3  46  27  16
  Forest Green Rovers FC   12   0  29  28  43

AFC Fylde Fw Attacks = 0 (16 - 29)
AFC Fylde Mf Attacks = 0 ((27 - 28) / 2;  rounded up)
AFC Fylde Df Attacks = 1 ((46 - 43) / 3); result rounded up
AFC Fylde Total Attacks = 1

1: Attack for Df Matheo Seguin
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Forest Green Rovers FC
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 88 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 67.0% | Random number = 10.98 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
===============================================
     F  I  N  A  L         S  C  O  R  E
FOREST GREEN ROVERS FC 0  -  AFC FYLDE 1
 
Match Notes
Home fans warned not to expect the top 11 fielded here
Mark (Forest Green Rovers FC) 02/27 - 1:31 PM
Home fans were warned and it was a lot closer than i thought
Mark (Forest Green Rovers FC) 03/06 - 8:59 PM
on to the next one!
Mark (Forest Green Rovers FC) 03/06 - 9:00 PM
 
 
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