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ball MSWL UNITED ② Season 41 // Landing
 
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Tonbridge Angels
Andy Shaw
 
Kingstonian FC
Jason Halpin
 
 
League Round 16
 
 
 
 

S  T  A  R  T  I  N  G      L  I  N  E  U  P  S

TONBRIDGE ANGELS                           KINGSTONIAN FC

Ps Player Name            SL  FIT  LVL     Ps Player Name            SL  FIT  LVL
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gk Luca Werner            13    2   15     Gk Connor Bateman          9    2   11
Sw Sean Carroll           13    2   15     Sw Inge Møller            14    2   16
Df Ciaran Healy           14    2   16     Df Stephen Ard            15    2   17
Df Mathias Sørensen       13    2   15     Df Martin Smith           11    2   13
Df Noah Gerrard           12    2   14     Df Marcus Hagen            5    2    7
Mf Sean Long              14    2   16     Mf Christopher Burroughs  13    2   15
Mf Joe Barrett            14    2   16     Mf Ryan Welbeck           10    2   12
Mf Jordi Navarro           9    2   11     Mf Jake Bell               9    2   11
Fw Michael Turner         16    2   18     Fw Marcelo Villalba       14    2   16
Fw Daniel Barbosa          9    2   11     Fw Luke McDonald           9    2   11
Fw Hayden Marshall         5    2    7     Fw Luca Taylor             5    2    7

      Gk Sw Df Mf Fw   A R E A  T O T A L S    Gk Sw Df Mf Fw
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
      15 15 45 43 36        ROSTER TOTALS      11 16 37 38 34    
       2  0  0  0  0          HARDNESS          0  0  0  0  0    
       0  0  0  0  9       HOME ADVANTAGE       0  0  0  0  0    
       1  3  0  0  0  GREAT PERFORMANCE POINTS  0  0  0  0  0    
       0  0  0  0  0        PLAY FOR DRAW       0  0  7  0  0    
=======================================================================
      18 18 45 43 45         T O T A L S       11 16 44 38 34    

============================================================================
============================================================================
B  O  O  K  I  N  G  S

Each player is next given a chance for a yellow/red card.  The first
number listed is the chance for the player to get the yellow/red
card while the second number shows the random number drawn.  If the 
random number is less than or equal to the player's yellow/red card 
chance then the player is sent off.  Note that the chances are as follows:
	- Booking: 1.5 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness))
	- Red Card: 0.25 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness)))

If a player is booked we immediately draw a second number to check
for a 'second yellow' (red card chance) resulting in a sending off.
If a player is not booked we draw a red card chance to see if the player
was given a straight red card.  Note that the aforementioned formula
differs for a Gk where the formula uses the hardness points added to
your Gk area and NOT the team hardness points.

*******  TONBRIDGE ANGELS YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
   - Team Hardness = 2
   - Gk   Hardness = 2

Gk Luca Werner: Chance of booking = 9.0% | Random number = 24.19 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.25% | Random number = 99.19 (no red card)

Sw Sean Carroll: Chance of booking = 7.5% | Random number = 70.88 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.25% | Random number = 0.08 (STRAIGHT RED CARD! SENT OFF!!!)
      Sean Carroll new match skill level =  7
      Sean Carroll new match total level =  9

Df Ciaran Healy: Chance of booking = 7.5% | Random number = 4.29 (BOOKED!) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.25% | Random number = 40.79 (no second yellow)

Df Mathias Sørensen: Chance of booking = 7.5% | Random number = 66.45 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.25% | Random number = 66.99 (no red card)

Df Noah Gerrard: Chance of booking = 7.5% | Random number = 66.59 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.25% | Random number = 53.71 (no red card)

Mf Sean Long: Chance of booking = 7.5% | Random number = 82.26 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.25% | Random number = 87.24 (no red card)

Mf Joe Barrett: Chance of booking = 7.5% | Random number = 94.29 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.25% | Random number = 57.43 (no red card)

Mf Jordi Navarro: Chance of booking = 7.5% | Random number = 40.91 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.25% | Random number = 84.69 (no red card)

Fw Michael Turner: Chance of booking = 7.5% | Random number = 9.16 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.25% | Random number = 75.65 (no red card)

Fw Daniel Barbosa: Chance of booking = 7.5% | Random number = 9.18 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.25% | Random number = 44.49 (no red card)

Fw Hayden Marshall: Chance of booking = 7.5% | Random number = 87.1 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.25% | Random number = 54.5 (no red card)

*******  KINGSTONIAN FC YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
   - Team Hardness = 0
   - Gk   Hardness = 0

Gk Connor Bateman: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 59.46 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 60.68 (no red card)

Sw Inge Møller: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 90.79 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 81.98 (no red card)

Df Stephen Ard: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 16.95 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 81.44 (no red card)

Df Martin Smith: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 4.57 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 61.19 (no red card)

Df Marcus Hagen: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 95.57 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 87.42 (no red card)

Mf Christopher Burroughs: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 11.0 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 8.33 (no red card)

Mf Ryan Welbeck: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 13.77 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 63.97 (no red card)

Mf Jake Bell: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 67.28 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 2.92 (no red card)

Fw Marcelo Villalba: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 96.02 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 95.86 (no red card)

Fw Luke McDonald: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 21.19 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 78.09 (no red card)

Fw Luca Taylor: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 87.54 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 4.93 (no red card)
============================================================================
============================================================================
I  N  J  U  R  I  E  S

A major consequence of hardness is that your opponents get injured. 
For each player the chance of injury is:   
  ((your team’s hardness * .25) + (opponent’s hardness * .75) + 2.5)%.
    For example if your team has a hardness of 8 and the opposition has a hardness of 4,
    the chance of injury for each player would be: 2 + 3 + 2.5 or 7.5%.

The chance is halved for the opposition Gk. A player plays at half 
his normal level (skill plus fitness) in the match in which he is injured.

Injured players lose fitness as a result, the amount of fitness lost being
shown on the game report in brackets. There is a 30% chance of no fitness loss,
15% chance of 1 level fitness lost, 15% of 2 levels, and a 10% chance
of each of 3,4,5, or 6 fitness levels being lost. 
This fitness loss (if any) takes place at the end of the session, for 
reasons of simplicity. Should a player be injured twice or
more in a session, only the most severe injury will apply.


*******  TONBRIDGE ANGELS CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
   - Tonbridge Angels Team Hardness = 2
   - Kingstonian FC Team Hardness = 0
   - All (except Gk) chance of injury = 3.0%
   - Gk chance of injury = 1.5%
Gk Luca Werner: Chance of injury = 1.5% | Random number = 10.5 (no injury) 
Sw Sean Carroll: Chance of injury = 3.0% | Random number = 37.84 (no injury) 
Df Ciaran Healy: Chance of injury = 3.0% | Random number = 43.66 (no injury) 
Df Mathias Sørensen: Chance of injury = 3.0% | Random number = 62.98 (no injury) 
Df Noah Gerrard: Chance of injury = 3.0% | Random number = 35.67 (no injury) 
Mf Sean Long: Chance of injury = 3.0% | Random number = 2.55 (INJURED!) 
      Targeted fitness lost = 5
      Sean Long is being assisted by the Physio. He will lose 4 fitness points (deducted at end of session)
      Sean Long new match skill level =  7
      Sean Long new match total level =  9
Mf Joe Barrett: Chance of injury = 3.0% | Random number = 81.5 (no injury) 
Mf Jordi Navarro: Chance of injury = 3.0% | Random number = 72.72 (no injury) 
Fw Michael Turner: Chance of injury = 3.0% | Random number = 90.03 (no injury) 
Fw Daniel Barbosa: Chance of injury = 3.0% | Random number = 14.04 (no injury) 
Fw Hayden Marshall: Chance of injury = 3.0% | Random number = 33.97 (no injury) 

*******  KINGSTONIAN FC CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
   - Kingstonian FC Team Hardness = 0
   - Tonbridge Angels Team Hardness = 2
   - All (except Gk) chance of injury = 4.0%
   - Gk chance of injury = 2.0%
Gk Connor Bateman: Chance of injury = 2.0% | Random number = 64.07 (no injury) 
Sw Inge Møller: Chance of injury = 4.0% | Random number = 57.22 (no injury) 
Df Stephen Ard: Chance of injury = 4.0% | Random number = 18.65 (no injury) 
Df Martin Smith: Chance of injury = 4.0% | Random number = 49.43 (no injury) 
Df Marcus Hagen: Chance of injury = 4.0% | Random number = 85.44 (no injury) 
Mf Christopher Burroughs: Chance of injury = 4.0% | Random number = 60.59 (no injury) 
Mf Ryan Welbeck: Chance of injury = 4.0% | Random number = 24.94 (no injury) 
Mf Jake Bell: Chance of injury = 4.0% | Random number = 59.31 (no injury) 
Fw Marcelo Villalba: Chance of injury = 4.0% | Random number = 22.25 (no injury) 
Fw Luke McDonald: Chance of injury = 4.0% | Random number = 96.75 (no injury) 
Fw Luca Taylor: Chance of injury = 4.0% | Random number = 92.94 (no injury) 
============================================================================
============================================================================
P  E  N  A  L  T  Y     K  I  C  K  S

There is a 10% chance of conceding a penalty for every hardness point used.
Each 10% chance is separate, so a team could concede as many penalties as it plays
hardness points. If no hardness is used, there is still a 5% penalty chance. 
The chance of a penalty being scored is: 
  50 + (4 x penalty takers skill) - (2 x Gk skill)  %    (to a maximum 95%)

*******  KINGSTONIAN FC CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
   - Team Hardness: 0; (1 5% chance of yielding a PK)
   - PK Taker: Michael Turner SL 16
   - Defending Gk: Connor Bateman SL 9

     intRndPk = 59
1: Chance of PK occurring = 5% | Random number = 59 (no penalty kick)

*******  TONBRIDGE ANGELS CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
   - Team Hardness: 2; (2 10% chances of yielding PKs)
   - PK Taker: Stephen Ard SL 15
   - Defending Gk: Luca Werner SL 13

1: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 23 (no penalty kick)
2: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 3 (PENALTY KICK!)
   Chance of scoring = 84% | Random number = 53 (PENALTY KICK GOOOAAALLL!!!)
============================================================================
============================================================================
A  T  T  A  C  K  I  N  G      C  H  A  N  C  E  S      &      S  H  O  T  S

  (i)   If team A's Fw area total is greater than team B's Df area total, 
        then A earns a number of attacks equal to the difference.
        Note: A Sw  does NOT add his levels to the Df in this league! 

  (ii)  The team with the highest Mf area total gets attacks equal to half
        the difference.

  (iii) If team A's Df area total is greater than team B's Fw total, then  
        team A earns a number of attacks equal to one fifth of the difference.
        If team A is playing a sweeper behind the defence, this rises to one 
        third of the difference.  All fractions of attacks are rounded up, 
        and then each of the attacks is treated as follows to see how many 
        produce shots, then goals: 

  (iv)  Attacks have first to beat the Sw (if playing!).  For each attack,
        there is a percentage chance of it being stopped equal to:
              30 + (Sw level x 2) % 
        (eg a level 10 Sw stops 30+10x2=50% of attacks.) Attacks passing the 
        Sw become shots.

  (v)   Each shot has a 35% chance of being off-target. If a side has scored
        2 goals this rises to 40%, then by a further 5% after each goal scored,
        to a maximum of 75%. This is to curb ridiculous scorelines (with luck!)

  (vi)  Finally, on-target shots come up against the  Gk. This is similar to 
        the Sw test, but the percentage is:
        40 + (Gk level x 2.25) % 

  Notes: If the defense is playing offside trap then the offensive team has
         their Fw attacks cut in half and theor Mf attacks doubled.

         A team choosing to PFD has 7 extra levels to split between Sw, 
         Df and Mf areas, but their attacks for each area will be halved 
         (round up fractions).

*******  TONBRIDGE ANGELS ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
  AREA TOTALS             GK  Sw  Df  Mf  Fw
  -------------------------------------------
  Tonbridge Angels         18  12  45  36  45
  Kingstonian FC           11  16  44  38  34

Tonbridge Angels Fw Attacks = 1 (45 - 44); result rounded up
Tonbridge Angels Mf Attacks = 0 ((36 - 38) / 2;  rounded up)
Tonbridge Angels Df Attacks = 4 ((45 - 34) / 3); result rounded up
Tonbridge Angels Total Attacks = 5

1: Attack for Df Ciaran Healy
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 14 (Sw stopped attack) 
2: Attack for Df Mathias Sørensen
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 30 (Sw stopped attack) 
3: Attack for Df Mathias Sørensen
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 11 (Sw stopped attack) 
4: Attack for Df Mathias Sørensen
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 14 (Sw stopped attack) 
5: Attack for Fw Daniel Barbosa
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 64 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 18 (Shot Off Target) 

*******  KINGSTONIAN FC ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
  AREA TOTALS             GK  Sw  Df  Mf  Fw
  -------------------------------------------
  Kingstonian FC           11  16  44  38  34
  Tonbridge Angels         18  12  45  36  45

Kingstonian FC is Playing For A Draw!
Kingstonian FC Fw Attacks = 0 (34 - 45)
Kingstonian FC Mf Attacks = 1 ((38 - 36) / 2)  * 0.5 (Play For Draw Multiplier); result rounded up
Kingstonian FC Df Attacks = 0 ((44 - 45) / 3;  rounded up)
Kingstonian FC Total Attacks = 1

1: Attack for Mf Jake Bell
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 54% | Random number = 64 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 67 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 80.5% | Random number = 72.86 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
===============================================
     F  I  N  A  L         S  C  O  R  E
TONBRIDGE ANGELS 0  -  KINGSTONIAN FC 1
 
Match Notes
The Ks are two points ahead of us. A big six pointer.
Andy (Tonbridge Angels) 03/02 - 7:16 PM
My boss at Major League Soccer used to get annoyed and tell me there's no such thing as a six-pointer. He was wrong. This is a six-pointer.
Jason (Kingstonian FC) 03/06 - 11:07 PM
I guess we do get lucky once in a while. We had no business winning this match.
Jason (Kingstonian FC) 03/07 - 7:53 PM
I think that sums up our season Jason and condemns us to relegation.
Andy (Tonbridge Angels) 03/08 - 6:54 PM
 
 
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