(H)
Evesham United FC
Aires Martins Jr.
Luton Town FC
Mike Cabral
League Round 15
S T A R T I N G L I N E U P S
EVESHAM UNITED FC LUTON TOWN FC
Ps Player Name SL FIT LVL Ps Player Name SL FIT LVL
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Gk Adrian Flores 16 0 16 Gk Hayden Barnes 13 0 13
Sw Craig Thompson 8 -1 7 Sw Joel Strömberg 15 2 17
Df Matty Hunter 16 -1 15 Df Philipp Koch 18 2 20
Df Miguel Mora 10 0 10 Df Frank Goodwin 9 2 11
Df Denis Howard 8 2 10 Mf Nathan Dean 15 2 17
Mf Ronan Fitzgerald 15 0 15 Mf Rhys Johnstone 9 2 11
Mf Gabriel Miller 8 2 10 Mf Harley Ritchie 9 2 11
Mf Emile Chambers 8 2 10 Fw Corey Williams 13 2 15
Fw Logan Ferdinand 11 0 11 Fw Nathan Phillips 12 2 14
Fw Afonso Alves 10 1 11 Fw Roberto Conti 9 2 11
Fw Kyle McNeill 4 2 6 Fw Victor Jourdan 9 2 11
Gk Sw Df Mf Fw A R E A T O T A L S Gk Sw Df Mf Fw
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16 7 35 35 28 ROSTER TOTALS 13 17 31 39 51
1 1 0 0 0 HARDNESS 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 9 HOME ADVANTAGE 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 GREAT PERFORMANCE POINTS 3 2 0 0 5
0 0 0 0 0 PLAY FOR DRAW 0 0 0 0 0
=======================================================================
17 8 35 35 37 T O T A L S 16 19 31 39 56
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============================================================================
B O O K I N G S
Each player is next given a chance for a yellow/red card. The first
number listed is the chance for the player to get the yellow/red
card while the second number shows the random number drawn. If the
random number is less than or equal to the player's yellow/red card
chance then the player is sent off. Note that the chances are as follows:
- Booking: 1.5 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness))
- Red Card: 0.25 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness)))
If a player is booked we immediately draw a second number to check
for a 'second yellow' (red card chance) resulting in a sending off.
If a player is not booked we draw a red card chance to see if the player
was given a straight red card. Note that the aforementioned formula
differs for a Gk where the formula uses the hardness points added to
your Gk area and NOT the team hardness points.
******* EVESHAM UNITED FC YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
- Team Hardness = 2
- Gk Hardness = 1
Gk Adrian Flores: Chance of booking = 6.75% | Random number = 33.39 (no booking)
Chance of straight red card = 1.0% | Random number = 60.59 (no red card)
Sw Craig Thompson: Chance of booking = 7.5% | Random number = 80.57 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 1.25% | Random number = 61.53 (no red card)
Df Matty Hunter: Chance of booking = 7.5% | Random number = 12.94 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 1.25% | Random number = 81.92 (no red card)
Df Miguel Mora: Chance of booking = 7.5% | Random number = 5.78 (BOOKED!)
Chance of second booking = 1.25% | Random number = 26.94 (no second yellow)
Df Denis Howard: Chance of booking = 7.5% | Random number = 3.07 (BOOKED!)
Chance of second booking = 1.25% | Random number = 95.31 (no second yellow)
Mf Ronan Fitzgerald: Chance of booking = 7.5% | Random number = 73.38 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 1.25% | Random number = 80.52 (no red card)
Mf Gabriel Miller: Chance of booking = 7.5% | Random number = 42.99 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 1.25% | Random number = 54.44 (no red card)
Mf Emile Chambers: Chance of booking = 7.5% | Random number = 5.44 (BOOKED!)
Chance of second booking = 1.25% | Random number = 13.35 (no second yellow)
Fw Logan Ferdinand: Chance of booking = 7.5% | Random number = 20.54 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 1.25% | Random number = 7.01 (no red card)
Fw Afonso Alves: Chance of booking = 7.5% | Random number = 34.95 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 1.25% | Random number = 86.44 (no red card)
Fw Kyle McNeill: Chance of booking = 7.5% | Random number = 83.74 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 1.25% | Random number = 62.11 (no red card)
******* LUTON TOWN FC YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
- Team Hardness = 0
- Gk Hardness = 0
Gk Hayden Barnes: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 73.1 (no booking)
Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 53.56 (no red card)
Sw Joel Strömberg: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 66.96 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 62.08 (no red card)
Df Philipp Koch: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 79.47 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 94.62 (no red card)
Df Frank Goodwin: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 41.64 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 90.38 (no red card)
Mf Nathan Dean: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 78.27 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 50.35 (no red card)
Mf Rhys Johnstone: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 38.73 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 93.02 (no red card)
Mf Harley Ritchie: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 13.84 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 91.63 (no red card)
Fw Corey Williams: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 75.41 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 36.22 (no red card)
Fw Nathan Phillips: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 81.12 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 3.49 (no red card)
Fw Roberto Conti: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 65.53 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 97.61 (no red card)
Fw Victor Jourdan: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 53.9 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 17.63 (no red card)
============================================================================
============================================================================
I N J U R I E S
A major consequence of hardness is that your opponents get injured.
For each player the chance of injury is:
((your team’s hardness * .25) + (opponent’s hardness * .75) + 2.5)%.
For example if your team has a hardness of 8 and the opposition has a hardness of 4,
the chance of injury for each player would be: 2 + 3 + 2.5 or 7.5%.
The chance is halved for the opposition Gk. A player plays at half
his normal level (skill plus fitness) in the match in which he is injured.
Injured players lose fitness as a result, the amount of fitness lost being
shown on the game report in brackets. There is a 30% chance of no fitness loss,
15% chance of 1 level fitness lost, 15% of 2 levels, and a 10% chance
of each of 3,4,5, or 6 fitness levels being lost.
This fitness loss (if any) takes place at the end of the session, for
reasons of simplicity. Should a player be injured twice or
more in a session, only the most severe injury will apply.
******* EVESHAM UNITED FC CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
- Evesham United FC Team Hardness = 2
- Luton Town FC Team Hardness = 0
- All (except Gk) chance of injury = 3.0%
- Gk chance of injury = 1.5%
Gk Adrian Flores: Chance of injury = 1.5% | Random number = 77.45 (no injury)
Sw Craig Thompson: Chance of injury = 3.0% | Random number = 69.59 (no injury)
Df Matty Hunter: Chance of injury = 3.0% | Random number = 82.22 (no injury)
Df Miguel Mora: Chance of injury = 3.0% | Random number = 80.51 (no injury)
Df Denis Howard: Chance of injury = 3.0% | Random number = 78.65 (no injury)
Mf Ronan Fitzgerald: Chance of injury = 3.0% | Random number = 88.05 (no injury)
Mf Gabriel Miller: Chance of injury = 3.0% | Random number = 52.1 (no injury)
Mf Emile Chambers: Chance of injury = 3.0% | Random number = 89.69 (no injury)
Fw Logan Ferdinand: Chance of injury = 3.0% | Random number = 23.97 (no injury)
Fw Afonso Alves: Chance of injury = 3.0% | Random number = 38.26 (no injury)
Fw Kyle McNeill: Chance of injury = 3.0% | Random number = 31.19 (no injury)
******* LUTON TOWN FC CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
- Luton Town FC Team Hardness = 0
- Evesham United FC Team Hardness = 2
- All (except Gk) chance of injury = 4.0%
- Gk chance of injury = 2.0%
Gk Hayden Barnes: Chance of injury = 2.0% | Random number = 41.11 (no injury)
Sw Joel Strömberg: Chance of injury = 4.0% | Random number = 19.14 (no injury)
Df Philipp Koch: Chance of injury = 4.0% | Random number = 54.85 (no injury)
Df Frank Goodwin: Chance of injury = 4.0% | Random number = 27.48 (no injury)
Mf Nathan Dean: Chance of injury = 4.0% | Random number = 78.43 (no injury)
Mf Rhys Johnstone: Chance of injury = 4.0% | Random number = 95.55 (no injury)
Mf Harley Ritchie: Chance of injury = 4.0% | Random number = 71.14 (no injury)
Fw Corey Williams: Chance of injury = 4.0% | Random number = 16.23 (no injury)
Fw Nathan Phillips: Chance of injury = 4.0% | Random number = 12.61 (no injury)
Fw Roberto Conti: Chance of injury = 4.0% | Random number = 57.31 (no injury)
Fw Victor Jourdan: Chance of injury = 4.0% | Random number = 64.06 (no injury)
============================================================================
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P E N A L T Y K I C K S
There is a 10% chance of conceding a penalty for every hardness point used.
Each 10% chance is separate, so a team could concede as many penalties as it plays
hardness points. If no hardness is used, there is still a 5% penalty chance.
The chance of a penalty being scored is:
50 + (4 x penalty takers skill) - (2 x Gk skill) % (to a maximum 95%)
******* LUTON TOWN FC CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
- Team Hardness: 0; (1 5% chance of yielding a PK)
- PK Taker: Matty Hunter SL 16
- Defending Gk: Hayden Barnes SL 13
intRndPk = 70
1: Chance of PK occurring = 5% | Random number = 70 (no penalty kick)
******* EVESHAM UNITED FC CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
- Team Hardness: 2; (2 10% chances of yielding PKs)
- PK Taker: Philipp Koch SL 18
- Defending Gk: Adrian Flores SL 16
1: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 54 (no penalty kick)
2: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 23 (no penalty kick)
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A T T A C K I N G C H A N C E S & S H O T S
(i) If team A's Fw area total is greater than team B's Df area total,
then A earns a number of attacks equal to the difference.
Note: A Sw does NOT add his levels to the Df in this league!
(ii) The team with the highest Mf area total gets attacks equal to half
the difference.
(iii) If team A's Df area total is greater than team B's Fw total, then
team A earns a number of attacks equal to one fifth of the difference.
If team A is playing a sweeper behind the defence, this rises to one
third of the difference. All fractions of attacks are rounded up,
and then each of the attacks is treated as follows to see how many
produce shots, then goals:
(iv) Attacks have first to beat the Sw (if playing!). For each attack,
there is a percentage chance of it being stopped equal to:
30 + (Sw level x 2) %
(eg a level 10 Sw stops 30+10x2=50% of attacks.) Attacks passing the
Sw become shots.
(v) Each shot has a 35% chance of being off-target. If a side has scored
2 goals this rises to 40%, then by a further 5% after each goal scored,
to a maximum of 75%. This is to curb ridiculous scorelines (with luck!)
(vi) Finally, on-target shots come up against the Gk. This is similar to
the Sw test, but the percentage is:
40 + (Gk level x 2.25) %
Notes: If the defense is playing offside trap then the offensive team has
their Fw attacks cut in half and theor Mf attacks doubled.
A team choosing to PFD has 7 extra levels to split between Sw,
Df and Mf areas, but their attacks for each area will be halved
(round up fractions).
******* EVESHAM UNITED FC ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
AREA TOTALS GK Sw Df Mf Fw
-------------------------------------------
Evesham United FC 17 8 35 35 37
Luton Town FC 16 19 31 39 56
Evesham United FC Fw Attacks = 6 (37 - 31); result rounded up
Evesham United FC Mf Attacks = 0 ((35 - 39) / 2; rounded up)
Evesham United FC Df Attacks = 0 ((35 - 56) / 3; rounded up)
Evesham United FC Total Attacks = 6
1: Attack for Fw Kyle McNeill
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 68% | Random number = 66 (Sw stopped attack)
2: Attack for Fw Logan Ferdinand
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 68% | Random number = 22 (Sw stopped attack)
3: Attack for Fw Afonso Alves
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 68% | Random number = 30 (Sw stopped attack)
4: Attack for Fw Logan Ferdinand
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 68% | Random number = 58 (Sw stopped attack)
5: Attack for Fw Logan Ferdinand
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 68% | Random number = 32 (Sw stopped attack)
6: Attack for Fw Afonso Alves
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 68% | Random number = 6 (Sw stopped attack)
******* LUTON TOWN FC ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
AREA TOTALS GK Sw Df Mf Fw
-------------------------------------------
Luton Town FC 16 19 31 39 56
Evesham United FC 17 8 35 35 37
Luton Town FC Fw Attacks = 21 (56 - 35); result rounded up
Luton Town FC Mf Attacks = 2 ((39 - 35) / 2) ; result rounded up
Luton Town FC Df Attacks = 0 ((31 - 37) / 3; rounded up)
Luton Town FC Total Attacks = 23
1: Attack for Mf Harley Ritchie
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 46% | Random number = 36 (Sw stopped attack)
2: Attack for Mf Nathan Dean
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 46% | Random number = 52 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 43 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 78.25% | Random number = 10.46 (Shot Saved by Gk)
3: Attack for Fw Nathan Phillips
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 46% | Random number = 60 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 84 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 78.25% | Random number = 88.23 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!)
4: Attack for Fw Corey Williams
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 46% | Random number = 46 (Sw stopped attack)
5: Attack for Fw Corey Williams
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 46% | Random number = 4 (Sw stopped attack)
6: Attack for Fw Nathan Phillips
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 46% | Random number = 72 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 100 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 78.25% | Random number = 40.3 (Shot Saved by Gk)
7: Attack for Fw Nathan Phillips
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 46% | Random number = 84 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 5 (Shot Off Target)
8: Attack for Fw Victor Jourdan
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 46% | Random number = 40 (Sw stopped attack)
9: Attack for Fw Nathan Phillips
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 46% | Random number = 11 (Sw stopped attack)
10: Attack for Fw Roberto Conti
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 46% | Random number = 20 (Sw stopped attack)
11: Attack for Fw Nathan Phillips
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 46% | Random number = 20 (Sw stopped attack)
12: Attack for Fw Corey Williams
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 46% | Random number = 43 (Sw stopped attack)
13: Attack for Fw Corey Williams
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 46% | Random number = 20 (Sw stopped attack)
14: Attack for Fw Roberto Conti
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 46% | Random number = 26 (Sw stopped attack)
15: Attack for Fw Victor Jourdan
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 46% | Random number = 69 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 55 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 78.25% | Random number = 43.3 (Shot Saved by Gk)
16: Attack for Fw Victor Jourdan
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 46% | Random number = 16 (Sw stopped attack)
17: Attack for Fw Victor Jourdan
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 46% | Random number = 87 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 82 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 78.25% | Random number = 99.02 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!)
18: Attack for Fw Nathan Phillips
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 46% | Random number = 18 (Sw stopped attack)
19: Attack for Fw Roberto Conti
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 46% | Random number = 51 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 39 (Shot Off Target)
20: Attack for Fw Nathan Phillips
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 46% | Random number = 30 (Sw stopped attack)
21: Attack for Fw Victor Jourdan
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 46% | Random number = 73 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 8 (Shot Off Target)
22: Attack for Fw Victor Jourdan
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 46% | Random number = 98 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 89 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 78.25% | Random number = 37.64 (Shot Saved by Gk)
23: Attack for Fw Victor Jourdan
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 46% | Random number = 16 (Sw stopped attack)
===============================================
F I N A L S C O R E
EVESHAM UNITED FC 0 - LUTON TOWN FC 2
Match Notes
Moose versus Luton. I have modelled every conceivable outcome and they all lead, eventually, to the heat death of the universe. Kick off anyway.
~ Olmec Head Marvin ~ Jun 29 (Goole AFC)
Heading to Portugal...err, Aires's home grounds...today.
~ Mike ~ Jul 4 (Luton Town FC)
Another one where we could reaaaaaaaaaaly use the point(s).
~ Mike ~ Jul 4 (Luton Town FC)
Best of luck, Aires!
~ Mike ~ Jul 4 (Luton Town FC)
Aires needs cash. This should help!
~ Aires ~ Jul 5 (Evesham United FC)
Welcome to the main land!
~ Aires ~ Jul 10 (Evesham United FC)
We took it like a champ
~ Aires ~ Jul 10 (Evesham United FC)