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Ilkeston Town FC
Steve Turner
 
Boston United
Rob Peterson
 
 
League Round 14
 
 
 
 

S  T  A  R  T  I  N  G      L  I  N  E  U  P  S

ILKESTON TOWN FC                           BOSTON UNITED

Ps Player Name            SL  FIT  LVL     Ps Player Name            SL  FIT  LVL
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gk Andrés Ramos           15    2   17     Gk Morgan James           16    2   18
Sw Declan Wilson          16    0   16     Df Sebastian Castillo     14    2   16
Df Barry Fortune-West     11    2   13     Df Kåre  Sivertsen        11    2   13
Df Jannick Schmitz        14    0   14     Df Florian König           9    2   11
Mf Donald Brown            9    2   11     Mf Damien Monin           13    0   13
Mf Esteban Gallet          8    1    9     Mf Claudio Ferrari        13    1   14
Mf Jeff Hunter             8    2   10     Mf Louis Mora             12    1   13
Fw Leon Fischer           14    2   16     Mf Santiago Rojas          8    0    8
Fw Kai Burke              13    2   15     Mf Gunnar Vik              4    2    6
Fw Luca König             13    2   15     Fw Carrington Wilkins     13    1   14
Fw André Souza             8    2   10     Fw Hernan Acosta          11    1   12

      Gk Sw Df Mf Fw   A R E A  T O T A L S    Gk Sw Df Mf Fw
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
      17 16 27 30 56        ROSTER TOTALS      18  0 40 54 26    
       0  0  0  0  0          HARDNESS          0  0  0  0  0    
       0  0  0  0  9       HOME ADVANTAGE       0  0  0  0  0    
       0  0  0  0  0  GREAT PERFORMANCE POINTS  0  0  0  0  0    
       0  0  0  0  0        PLAY FOR DRAW       0  0  0  0  0    
=======================================================================
      17 16 27 30 65         T O T A L S       18  0 40 54 26    

============================================================================
============================================================================
B  O  O  K  I  N  G  S

Each player is next given a chance for a yellow/red card.  The first
number listed is the chance for the player to get the yellow/red
card while the second number shows the random number drawn.  If the 
random number is less than or equal to the player's yellow/red card 
chance then the player is sent off.  Note that the chances are as follows:
	- Booking: 1.5 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness))
	- Red Card: 0.25 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness)))

If a player is booked we immediately draw a second number to check
for a 'second yellow' (red card chance) resulting in a sending off.
If a player is not booked we draw a red card chance to see if the player
was given a straight red card.  Note that the aforementioned formula
differs for a Gk where the formula uses the hardness points added to
your Gk area and NOT the team hardness points.

*******  ILKESTON TOWN FC YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
   - Team Hardness = 0
   - Gk   Hardness = 0

Gk Andrés Ramos: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 96.45 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 90.81 (no red card)

Sw Declan Wilson: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 62.76 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 33.7 (no red card)

Df Barry Fortune-West: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 75.16 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 83.36 (no red card)

Df Jannick Schmitz: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 31.85 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 28.54 (no red card)

Mf Donald Brown: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 80.62 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 4.71 (no red card)

Mf Esteban Gallet: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 39.47 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 71.89 (no red card)

Mf Jeff Hunter: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 97.07 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 84.2 (no red card)

Fw Leon Fischer: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 3.17 (BOOKED!) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 75.64 (no second yellow)

Fw Kai Burke: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 37.45 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 67.44 (no red card)

Fw Luca König: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 18.66 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 27.75 (no red card)

Fw André Souza: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 7.8 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 17.09 (no red card)

*******  BOSTON UNITED YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
   - Team Hardness = 0
   - Gk   Hardness = 0

Gk Morgan James: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 3.05 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 96.06 (no red card)

Df Sebastian Castillo: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 98.4 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 49.69 (no red card)

Df Kåre  Sivertsen: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 70.39 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 6.61 (no red card)

Df Florian König: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 92.22 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 93.92 (no red card)

Mf Damien Monin: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 92.18 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 70.34 (no red card)

Mf Claudio Ferrari: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 47.05 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 61.5 (no red card)

Mf Louis Mora: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 82.14 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 84.56 (no red card)

Mf Santiago Rojas: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 5.56 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 24.33 (no red card)

Mf Gunnar Vik: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 89.42 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 97.12 (no red card)

Fw Carrington Wilkins: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 40.82 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 37.4 (no red card)

Fw Hernan Acosta: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 70.72 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 28.23 (no red card)
============================================================================
============================================================================
I  N  J  U  R  I  E  S

A major consequence of hardness is that your opponents get injured. 
For each player the chance of injury is:   
  ((your team’s hardness * .25) + (opponent’s hardness * .75) + 2.5)%.
    For example if your team has a hardness of 8 and the opposition has a hardness of 4,
    the chance of injury for each player would be: 2 + 3 + 2.5 or 7.5%.

The chance is halved for the opposition Gk. A player plays at half 
his normal level (skill plus fitness) in the match in which he is injured.

Injured players lose fitness as a result, the amount of fitness lost being
shown on the game report in brackets. There is a 30% chance of no fitness loss,
15% chance of 1 level fitness lost, 15% of 2 levels, and a 10% chance
of each of 3,4,5, or 6 fitness levels being lost. 
This fitness loss (if any) takes place at the end of the session, for 
reasons of simplicity. Should a player be injured twice or
more in a session, only the most severe injury will apply.


*******  ILKESTON TOWN FC CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
   - Ilkeston Town FC Team Hardness = 0
   - Boston United Team Hardness = 0
   - All (except Gk) chance of injury = 2.5%
   - Gk chance of injury = 1.25%
Gk Andrés Ramos: Chance of injury = 1.25% | Random number = 94.96 (no injury) 
Sw Declan Wilson: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 84.45 (no injury) 
Df Barry Fortune-West: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 30.03 (no injury) 
Df Jannick Schmitz: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 97.07 (no injury) 
Mf Donald Brown: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 46.91 (no injury) 
Mf Esteban Gallet: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 8.49 (no injury) 
Mf Jeff Hunter: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 67.69 (no injury) 
Fw Leon Fischer: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 33.11 (no injury) 
Fw Kai Burke: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 74.82 (no injury) 
Fw Luca König: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 85.52 (no injury) 
Fw André Souza: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 16.95 (no injury) 

*******  BOSTON UNITED CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
   - Boston United Team Hardness = 0
   - Ilkeston Town FC Team Hardness = 0
   - All (except Gk) chance of injury = 2.5%
   - Gk chance of injury = 1.25%
Gk Morgan James: Chance of injury = 1.25% | Random number = 83.45 (no injury) 
Df Sebastian Castillo: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 29.35 (no injury) 
Df Kåre  Sivertsen: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 68.23 (no injury) 
Df Florian König: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 84.6 (no injury) 
Mf Damien Monin: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 6.24 (no injury) 
Mf Claudio Ferrari: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 48.31 (no injury) 
Mf Louis Mora: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 43.82 (no injury) 
Mf Santiago Rojas: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 55.13 (no injury) 
Mf Gunnar Vik: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 67.97 (no injury) 
Fw Carrington Wilkins: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 81.6 (no injury) 
Fw Hernan Acosta: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 31.92 (no injury) 
============================================================================
============================================================================
P  E  N  A  L  T  Y     K  I  C  K  S

There is a 10% chance of conceding a penalty for every hardness point used.
Each 10% chance is separate, so a team could concede as many penalties as it plays
hardness points. If no hardness is used, there is still a 5% penalty chance. 
The chance of a penalty being scored is: 
  50 + (4 x penalty takers skill) - (2 x Gk skill)  %    (to a maximum 95%)

*******  BOSTON UNITED CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
   - Team Hardness: 0; (1 5% chance of yielding a PK)
   - PK Taker: Jannick Schmitz SL 14
   - Defending Gk: Morgan James SL 16

     intRndPk = 94
1: Chance of PK occurring = 5% | Random number = 94 (no penalty kick)

*******  ILKESTON TOWN FC CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
   - Team Hardness: 0; (1 5% chance of yielding a PK)
   - PK Taker: Sebastian Castillo SL 14
   - Defending Gk: Andrés Ramos SL 15

     intRndPk = 61
1: Chance of PK occurring = 5% | Random number = 61 (no penalty kick)
============================================================================
============================================================================
A  T  T  A  C  K  I  N  G      C  H  A  N  C  E  S      &      S  H  O  T  S

  (i)   If team A's Fw area total is greater than team B's Df area total, 
        then A earns a number of attacks equal to the difference.
        Note: A Sw  does NOT add his levels to the Df in this league! 

  (ii)  The team with the highest Mf area total gets attacks equal to half
        the difference.

  (iii) If team A's Df area total is greater than team B's Fw total, then  
        team A earns a number of attacks equal to one fifth of the difference.
        If team A is playing a sweeper behind the defence, this rises to one 
        third of the difference.  All fractions of attacks are rounded up, 
        and then each of the attacks is treated as follows to see how many 
        produce shots, then goals: 

  (iv)  Attacks have first to beat the Sw (if playing!).  For each attack,
        there is a percentage chance of it being stopped equal to:
              30 + (Sw level x 2) % 
        (eg a level 10 Sw stops 30+10x2=50% of attacks.) Attacks passing the 
        Sw become shots.

  (v)   Each shot has a 35% chance of being off-target. If a side has scored
        2 goals this rises to 40%, then by a further 5% after each goal scored,
        to a maximum of 75%. This is to curb ridiculous scorelines (with luck!)

  (vi)  Finally, on-target shots come up against the  Gk. This is similar to 
        the Sw test, but the percentage is:
        40 + (Gk level x 2.25) % 

  Notes: If the defense is playing offside trap then the offensive team has
         their Fw attacks cut in half and theor Mf attacks doubled.

         A team choosing to PFD has 7 extra levels to split between Sw, 
         Df and Mf areas, but their attacks for each area will be halved 
         (round up fractions).

*******  ILKESTON TOWN FC ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
  AREA TOTALS             GK  Sw  Df  Mf  Fw
  -------------------------------------------
  Ilkeston Town FC         17  16  27  30  65
  Boston United            18   0  40  54  26

Ilkeston Town FC Fw Attacks = 25 (65 - 40); result rounded up
Ilkeston Town FC Mf Attacks = 0 ((30 - 54) / 2;  rounded up)
Ilkeston Town FC Df Attacks = 1 ((27 - 26) / 3); result rounded up
Ilkeston Town FC Total Attacks = 26

1: Attack for Df Barry Fortune-West
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Boston United
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 82 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 80.5% | Random number = 65.51 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
2: Attack for Fw Luca König
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Boston United
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 26 (Shot Off Target) 
3: Attack for Fw André Souza
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Boston United
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 30 (Shot Off Target) 
4: Attack for Fw Luca König
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Boston United
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 80 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 80.5% | Random number = 94.83 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 
5: Attack for Fw Leon Fischer
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Boston United
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 97 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 80.5% | Random number = 81.97 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 
6: Attack for Fw Leon Fischer
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Boston United
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 28 (Shot Off Target) 
7: Attack for Fw André Souza
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Boston United
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 17 (Shot Off Target) 
8: Attack for Fw Leon Fischer
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Boston United
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 90 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 80.5% | Random number = 66.53 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
9: Attack for Fw Luca König
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Boston United
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 62 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 80.5% | Random number = 13.39 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
10: Attack for Fw André Souza
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Boston United
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 27 (Shot Off Target) 
11: Attack for Fw Kai Burke
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Boston United
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 51 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 80.5% | Random number = 66.26 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
12: Attack for Fw Leon Fischer
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Boston United
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 72 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 80.5% | Random number = 13.59 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
13: Attack for Fw Leon Fischer
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Boston United
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 23 (Shot Off Target) 
14: Attack for Fw Leon Fischer
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Boston United
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 81 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 80.5% | Random number = 34.73 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
15: Attack for Fw Luca König
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Boston United
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 98 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 80.5% | Random number = 1.58 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
16: Attack for Fw Leon Fischer
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Boston United
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 62 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 80.5% | Random number = 51.01 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
17: Attack for Fw Kai Burke
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Boston United
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 14 (Shot Off Target) 
18: Attack for Fw Luca König
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Boston United
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 63 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 80.5% | Random number = 66.88 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
19: Attack for Fw Luca König
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Boston United
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 93 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 80.5% | Random number = 38.36 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
20: Attack for Fw Leon Fischer
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Boston United
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 82 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 80.5% | Random number = 81.1 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 
21: Attack for Fw André Souza
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Boston United
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 45% | Random number = 69 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 80.5% | Random number = 23.93 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
22: Attack for Fw Kai Burke
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Boston United
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 45% | Random number = 41 (Shot Off Target) 
23: Attack for Fw Leon Fischer
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Boston United
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 45% | Random number = 16 (Shot Off Target) 
24: Attack for Fw Luca König
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Boston United
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 45% | Random number = 62 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 80.5% | Random number = 25.26 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
25: Attack for Fw Kai Burke
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Boston United
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 45% | Random number = 32 (Shot Off Target) 
26: Attack for Fw Luca König
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Boston United
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 45% | Random number = 16 (Shot Off Target) 

*******  BOSTON UNITED ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
  AREA TOTALS             GK  Sw  Df  Mf  Fw
  -------------------------------------------
  Boston United            18   0  40  54  26
  Ilkeston Town FC         17  16  27  30  65

Boston United Fw Attacks = 0 (26 - 27)
Boston United Mf Attacks = 12 ((54 - 30) / 2) ; result rounded up
Boston United Df Attacks = 0 ((40 - 65) / 5;  rounded up)
Boston United Total Attacks = 12

1: Attack for Mf Damien Monin
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 54 (Sw stopped attack) 
2: Attack for Mf Santiago Rojas
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 25 (Sw stopped attack) 
3: Attack for Mf Santiago Rojas
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 27 (Sw stopped attack) 
4: Attack for Mf Damien Monin
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 17 (Sw stopped attack) 
5: Attack for Mf Louis Mora
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 97 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 13 (Shot Off Target) 
6: Attack for Mf Claudio Ferrari
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 16 (Sw stopped attack) 
7: Attack for Mf Damien Monin
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 92 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 3 (Shot Off Target) 
8: Attack for Mf Damien Monin
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 19 (Sw stopped attack) 
9: Attack for Mf Santiago Rojas
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 30 (Sw stopped attack) 
10: Attack for Mf Claudio Ferrari
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 100 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 60 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 78.25% | Random number = 63.63 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
11: Attack for Mf Louis Mora
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 6 (Sw stopped attack) 
12: Attack for Mf Louis Mora
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 44 (Sw stopped attack) 
===============================================
     F  I  N  A  L         S  C  O  R  E
ILKESTON TOWN FC 3  -  BOSTON UNITED 0
 
Match Notes
Ilkston needs this game in order to get out of the relegation zone, so I'm expecting a big lineup from Steve. Hoping we can get away with a point.
Rob (Boston United) 07/06 - 2:29 PM
I think somebody forgot to tell their players the tactics. But I would have been mathematically confident with equal chances and our SW
Steve (Ilkeston Town FC) 07/06 - 7:19 PM
*sigh* ... I was toying with OST vs SW and I think I forgot what I was doing in the end. But no matter what, if we don't score, we can't win.
Rob (Boston United) 07/06 - 7:49 PM
 
 
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