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ball MSWL UNITED ② Season 38 // Landing
 
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Harrogate Railway AFC
Allan Sellers
 
AFC Wimbledon
Dave Dohm
 
 
League Round 2
 
 
 
 

S  T  A  R  T  I  N  G      L  I  N  E  U  P  S

HARROGATE RAILWAY AFC                      AFC WIMBLEDON

Ps Player Name            SL  FIT  LVL     Ps Player Name            SL  FIT  LVL
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gk Florian De Vos         11    2   13     Gk Kenzie Ross            15    1   16
Sw Fortunato  Torres      10    1   11     Df Riley O'Brien          11    1   12
Df Aidan O'Neil           14    2   16     Df Aarron Lowe            10    2   12
Df Benjamin Newton        13    0   13     Df Lee Robertson          13    1   14
Df Ben Lawrence           10    1   11     Df Louis Butler           10    1   11
Mf Luis Schmidt           10    1   11     Df Luke Jackson            6    1    7
Mf Lewis Smith            10    0   10     Mf Aarron Shepherd        13    0   13
Mf Michael Möller          6    2    8     Mf Oscar Hall             16    0   16
Fw Braulio  Salas         13    0   13     Fw Paul Ellis             13    0   13
Fw Hans Fischer           14    2   16     Mf Reuben Thomas          11    1   12
Fw Cooper Smith           10    1   11     Fw Bradley McCarthy       13    0   13

      Gk Sw Df Mf Fw   A R E A  T O T A L S    Gk Sw Df Mf Fw
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
      13 11 40 29 40        ROSTER TOTALS      16  0 56 41 26    
       0  0  0  0  0          HARDNESS          1  0  0  0  0    
       0  0  0  0  9       HOME ADVANTAGE       0  0  0  0  0    
       0  0  0  0  0  GREAT PERFORMANCE POINTS  2  0  0  0  0    
       0  0  0  0  0        PLAY FOR DRAW       0  0  0  0  0    
=======================================================================
      13 11 40 29 49         T O T A L S       19  0 56 41 26    

============================================================================
============================================================================
B  O  O  K  I  N  G  S

Each player is next given a chance for a yellow/red card.  The first
number listed is the chance for the player to get the yellow/red
card while the second number shows the random number drawn.  If the 
random number is less than or equal to the player's yellow/red card 
chance then the player is sent off.  Note that the chances are as follows:
	- Booking: 1.5 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness))
	- Red Card: 0.25 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness)))

If a player is booked we immediately draw a second number to check
for a 'second yellow' (red card chance) resulting in a sending off.
If a player is not booked we draw a red card chance to see if the player
was given a straight red card.  Note that the aforementioned formula
differs for a Gk where the formula uses the hardness points added to
your Gk area and NOT the team hardness points.

*******  HARROGATE RAILWAY AFC YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
   - Team Hardness = 0
   - Gk   Hardness = 0

Gk Florian De Vos: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 77.16 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 27.94 (no red card)

Sw Fortunato  Torres: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 16.56 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 26.37 (no red card)

Df Aidan O'Neil: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 75.4 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 11.55 (no red card)

Df Benjamin Newton: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 15.26 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 83.48 (no red card)

Df Ben Lawrence: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 26.11 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 96.21 (no red card)

Mf Luis Schmidt: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 90.61 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 74.07 (no red card)

Mf Lewis Smith: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 80.01 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 21.84 (no red card)

Mf Michael Möller: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 11.04 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 22.48 (no red card)

Fw Braulio  Salas: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 34.96 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 80.75 (no red card)

Fw Hans Fischer: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 35.94 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 85.97 (no red card)

Fw Cooper Smith: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 17.68 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 96.18 (no red card)

*******  AFC WIMBLEDON YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
   - Team Hardness = 1
   - Gk   Hardness = 1

Gk Kenzie Ross: Chance of booking = 6.75% | Random number = 91.43 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.0% | Random number = 50.96 (no red card)

Df Riley O'Brien: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 9.92 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 38.66 (no red card)

Df Aarron Lowe: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 93.54 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 15.68 (no red card)

Df Lee Robertson: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 79.13 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 18.49 (no red card)

Df Louis Butler: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 37.69 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 94.6 (no red card)

Df Luke Jackson: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 93.72 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 33.19 (no red card)

Mf Aarron Shepherd: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 31.81 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 89.08 (no red card)

Mf Oscar Hall: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 90.6 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 24.51 (no red card)

Fw Paul Ellis: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 5.01 (BOOKED!) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 19.48 (no second yellow)

Mf Reuben Thomas: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 30.54 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 47.08 (no red card)

Fw Bradley McCarthy: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 47.13 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 98.86 (no red card)
============================================================================
============================================================================
I  N  J  U  R  I  E  S

A major consequence of hardness is that your opponents get injured. 
For each player the chance of injury is:   
  ((your team’s hardness * .25) + (opponent’s hardness * .75) + 2.5)%.
    For example if your team has a hardness of 8 and the opposition has a hardness of 4,
    the chance of injury for each player would be: 2 + 3 + 2.5 or 7.5%.

The chance is halved for the opposition Gk. A player plays at half 
his normal level (skill plus fitness) in the match in which he is injured.

Injured players lose fitness as a result, the amount of fitness lost being
shown on the game report in brackets. There is a 30% chance of no fitness loss,
15% chance of 1 level fitness lost, 15% of 2 levels, and a 10% chance
of each of 3,4,5, or 6 fitness levels being lost. 
This fitness loss (if any) takes place at the end of the session, for 
reasons of simplicity. Should a player be injured twice or
more in a session, only the most severe injury will apply.


*******  HARROGATE RAILWAY AFC CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
   - Harrogate Railway AFC Team Hardness = 0
   - AFC Wimbledon Team Hardness = 1
   - All (except Gk) chance of injury = 3.25%
   - Gk chance of injury = 1.62%
Gk Florian De Vos: Chance of injury = 1.62% | Random number = 72.13 (no injury) 
Sw Fortunato  Torres: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 98.52 (no injury) 
Df Aidan O'Neil: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 34.02 (no injury) 
Df Benjamin Newton: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 83.95 (no injury) 
Df Ben Lawrence: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 12.72 (no injury) 
Mf Luis Schmidt: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 57.79 (no injury) 
Mf Lewis Smith: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 80.05 (no injury) 
Mf Michael Möller: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 70.55 (no injury) 
Fw Braulio  Salas: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 71.97 (no injury) 
Fw Hans Fischer: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 68.78 (no injury) 
Fw Cooper Smith: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 12.41 (no injury) 

*******  AFC WIMBLEDON CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
   - AFC Wimbledon Team Hardness = 1
   - Harrogate Railway AFC Team Hardness = 0
   - All (except Gk) chance of injury = 2.75%
   - Gk chance of injury = 1.37%
Gk Kenzie Ross: Chance of injury = 1.37% | Random number = 33.63 (no injury) 
Df Riley O'Brien: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 15.09 (no injury) 
Df Aarron Lowe: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 59.26 (no injury) 
Df Lee Robertson: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 32.95 (no injury) 
Df Louis Butler: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 0.88 (INJURED!) 
      Targeted fitness lost = 0
      Louis Butler is being assisted by the Physio and appears to be just fine.
Df Luke Jackson: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 98.11 (no injury) 
Mf Aarron Shepherd: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 23.21 (no injury) 
Mf Oscar Hall: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 76.39 (no injury) 
Fw Paul Ellis: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 87.27 (no injury) 
Mf Reuben Thomas: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 67.45 (no injury) 
Fw Bradley McCarthy: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 85.84 (no injury) 
============================================================================
============================================================================
P  E  N  A  L  T  Y     K  I  C  K  S

There is a 10% chance of conceding a penalty for every hardness point used.
Each 10% chance is separate, so a team could concede as many penalties as it plays
hardness points. If no hardness is used, there is still a 5% penalty chance. 
The chance of a penalty being scored is: 
  50 + (4 x penalty takers skill) - (2 x Gk skill)  %    (to a maximum 95%)

*******  AFC WIMBLEDON CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
   - Team Hardness: 1; (1 10% chance of yielding a PK)
   - PK Taker: Aidan O'Neil SL 14
   - Defending Gk: Kenzie Ross SL 15

1: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 11 (no penalty kick)

*******  HARROGATE RAILWAY AFC CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
   - Team Hardness: 0; (1 5% chance of yielding a PK)
   - PK Taker: Oscar Hall SL 16
   - Defending Gk: Florian De Vos SL 11

     intRndPk = 16
1: Chance of PK occurring = 5% | Random number = 16 (no penalty kick)
============================================================================
============================================================================
A  T  T  A  C  K  I  N  G      C  H  A  N  C  E  S      &      S  H  O  T  S

  (i)   If team A's Fw area total is greater than team B's Df area total, 
        then A earns a number of attacks equal to the difference.
        Note: A Sw  does NOT add his levels to the Df in this league! 

  (ii)  The team with the highest Mf area total gets attacks equal to half
        the difference.

  (iii) If team A's Df area total is greater than team B's Fw total, then  
        team A earns a number of attacks equal to one fifth of the difference.
        If team A is playing a sweeper behind the defence, this rises to one 
        third of the difference.  All fractions of attacks are rounded up, 
        and then each of the attacks is treated as follows to see how many 
        produce shots, then goals: 

  (iv)  Attacks have first to beat the Sw (if playing!).  For each attack,
        there is a percentage chance of it being stopped equal to:
              30 + (Sw level x 2) % 
        (eg a level 10 Sw stops 30+10x2=50% of attacks.) Attacks passing the 
        Sw become shots.

  (v)   Each shot has a 35% chance of being off-target. If a side has scored
        2 goals this rises to 40%, then by a further 5% after each goal scored,
        to a maximum of 75%. This is to curb ridiculous scorelines (with luck!)

  (vi)  Finally, on-target shots come up against the  Gk. This is similar to 
        the Sw test, but the percentage is:
        40 + (Gk level x 2.25) % 

  Notes: If the defense is playing offside trap then the offensive team has
         their Fw attacks cut in half and theor Mf attacks doubled.

         A team choosing to PFD has 7 extra levels to split between Sw, 
         Df and Mf areas, but their attacks for each area will be halved 
         (round up fractions).

*******  HARROGATE RAILWAY AFC ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
  AREA TOTALS             GK  Sw  Df  Mf  Fw
  -------------------------------------------
  Harrogate Railway AFC    13  11  40  29  49
  AFC Wimbledon            19   0  56  41  26

AFC Wimbledon is using Offside Trap!
Harrogate Railway AFC Fw Attacks = 0 (49 - 56)
Harrogate Railway AFC Mf Attacks = 0 ((29 - 41) / 2;  rounded up)
Harrogate Railway AFC Df Attacks = 5 ((40 - 26) / 3); result rounded up
Harrogate Railway AFC Total Attacks = 5

1: Attack for Df Benjamin Newton
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for AFC Wimbledon
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 35 (Shot Off Target) 
2: Attack for Df Ben Lawrence
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for AFC Wimbledon
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 11 (Shot Off Target) 
3: Attack for Df Aidan O'Neil
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for AFC Wimbledon
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 86 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 82.75% | Random number = 14.07 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
4: Attack for Df Ben Lawrence
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for AFC Wimbledon
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 32 (Shot Off Target) 
5: Attack for Df Benjamin Newton
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for AFC Wimbledon
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 44 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 82.75% | Random number = 52.98 (Shot Saved by Gk) 

*******  AFC WIMBLEDON ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
  AREA TOTALS             GK  Sw  Df  Mf  Fw
  -------------------------------------------
  AFC Wimbledon            19   0  56  41  26
  Harrogate Railway AFC    13  11  40  29  49

AFC Wimbledon Fw Attacks = 0 (26 - 40)
AFC Wimbledon Mf Attacks = 6 ((41 - 29) / 2) ; result rounded up
AFC Wimbledon Df Attacks = 2 ((56 - 49) / 5); result rounded up
AFC Wimbledon Total Attacks = 8

1: Attack for Df Aarron Lowe
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 25 (Sw stopped attack) 
2: Attack for Df Louis Butler
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 49 (Sw stopped attack) 
3: Attack for Mf Reuben Thomas
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 32 (Sw stopped attack) 
4: Attack for Mf Oscar Hall
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 67 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 2 (Shot Off Target) 
5: Attack for Mf Oscar Hall
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 25 (Sw stopped attack) 
6: Attack for Mf Aarron Shepherd
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 99 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 95 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 69.25% | Random number = 79.53 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 
7: Attack for Mf Oscar Hall
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 77 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 90 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 69.25% | Random number = 90.67 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 
8: Attack for Mf Aarron Shepherd
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 54 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 6 (Shot Off Target) 
===============================================
     F  I  N  A  L         S  C  O  R  E
HARROGATE RAILWAY AFC 0  -  AFC WIMBLEDON 2
 
Match Notes
The Dons are 2 goal underdogs in this one. We will be fortunate to get a point
Dave (AFC Wimbledon) 05/24 - 12:38 PM
Two squads in down-to-the-studs rebuilds here, who is more the underdog?
Mike (Luton Town FC) 05/25 - 12:24 PM
We do hope this stays a clean match
Dave (AFC Wimbledon) 05/25 - 5:04 PM
We gave it a shot but it is just not easy to beat a master tactician like Darth Dave. Well played Mr. Dohm!
Allan (Harrogate Railway AFC) 05/25 - 7:17 PM
 
 
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