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Clevedon Town FC
Bryce Kalmbach
 
Bedford Town FC
Simon Compton
 
 
League Round 9
 
 
 
 
S  T  A  R  T  I  N  G      L  I  N  E  U  P  S

CLEVEDON TOWN FC                           BEDFORD TOWN FC

Ps Player Name            SL  FIT  LVL     Ps Player Name            SL  FIT  LVL
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gk Thibaut Pouliquen      15    2   17     Gk Harley Cole             2    2    4
Sw Niels Pedersen         16    0   16     Sw Ian Moore              12   -1   11
Df Christopher Kerr       13    1   14     Df Max Hermansson         13    2   15
Df Finn Kelly             12    1   13     Df Ben Collins            10    2   12
Df Kai Hawkins            12    2   14     Mf Carlton Bishop         14    2   16
Mf Callum McCarthy        11    2   13     Mf Eli Yosef              13    2   15
Mf Oliver Chaffersey      10    2   12     Mf Michael Carroll        11    2   13
Mf David Collins           7    2    9     Mf Dylan Grant             7    2    9
Fw Max Black              15    0   15     Fw Gerry Walker           13    2   15
Fw Francis Richards       16    1   17     Fw Zak Bell               13    2   15
Fw Glen Cole              12    2   14     Fw Alexander Stewart      13    2   15

      Gk Sw Df Mf Fw   A R E A  T O T A L S    Gk Sw Df Mf Fw
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
      17 16 41 34 46        ROSTER TOTALS       4 11 27 53 45    
       0  0  0  0  0          HARDNESS          0  0  0  0  0    
       0  0  0  5  4       HOME ADVANTAGE       0  0  0  0  0    
       0  0  0  0  0  GREAT PERFORMANCE POINTS  0  0  0  0  0    
       0  0  0  0  0        PLAY FOR DRAW       0  0  0  0  0    
=======================================================================
      17 16 41 39 50         T O T A L S        4 11 27 53 45    

============================================================================
============================================================================
B  O  O  K  I  N  G  S

Each player is next given a chance for a yellow/red card.  The first
number listed is the chance for the player to get the yellow/red
card while the second number shows the random number drawn.  If the 
random number is less than or equal to the player's yellow/red card 
chance then the player is sent off.  Note that the chances are as follows:
	- Booking: 1.5 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness))
	- Red Card: 0.25 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness)))

If a player is booked we immediately draw a second number to check
for a 'second yellow' (red card chance) resulting in a sending off.
If a player is not booked we draw a red card chance to see if the player
was given a straight red card.  Note that the aforementioned formula
differs for a Gk where the formula uses the hardness points added to
your Gk area and NOT the team hardness points.

*******  CLEVEDON TOWN FC YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
   - Team Hardness = 0
   - Gk   Hardness = 0

Gk Thibaut Pouliquen: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 94.26 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 90.42 (no red card)

Sw Niels Pedersen: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 55.96 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 72.3 (no red card)

Df Christopher Kerr: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 13.88 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 82.51 (no red card)

Df Finn Kelly: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 99.05 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 96.76 (no red card)

Df Kai Hawkins: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 73.48 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 26.1 (no red card)

Mf Callum McCarthy: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 87.5 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 42.92 (no red card)

Mf Oliver Chaffersey: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 45.03 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 42.24 (no red card)

Mf David Collins: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 88.61 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 41.23 (no red card)

Fw Max Black: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 47.84 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 39.51 (no red card)

Fw Francis Richards: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 4.85 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 32.96 (no red card)

Fw Glen Cole: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 22.47 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 39.02 (no red card)

*******  BEDFORD TOWN FC YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
   - Team Hardness = 0
   - Gk   Hardness = 0

Gk Harley Cole: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 14.72 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 29.23 (no red card)

Sw Ian Moore: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 92.8 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 21.38 (no red card)

Df Max Hermansson: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 31.03 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 50.45 (no red card)

Df Ben Collins: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 7.24 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 66.07 (no red card)

Mf Carlton Bishop: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 37.16 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 43.55 (no red card)

Mf Eli Yosef: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 14.69 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 71.15 (no red card)

Mf Michael Carroll: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 28.44 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 34.4 (no red card)

Mf Dylan Grant: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 58.02 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 78.35 (no red card)

Fw Gerry Walker: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 75.04 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 33.33 (no red card)

Fw Zak Bell: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 82.9 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 92.53 (no red card)

Fw Alexander Stewart: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 27.2 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 92.88 (no red card)
============================================================================
============================================================================
I  N  J  U  R  I  E  S

A major consequence of hardness is that your opponents get injured. 
For each player the chance of injury is:   
  ((your team’s hardness * .25) + (opponent’s hardness * .75) + 2.5)%.
    For example if your team has a hardness of 8 and the opposition has a hardness of 4,
    the chance of injury for each player would be: 2 + 3 + 2.5 or 7.5%.

The chance is halved for the opposition Gk. A player plays at half 
his normal level (skill plus fitness) in the match in which he is injured.

Injured players lose fitness as a result, the amount of fitness lost being
shown on the game report in brackets. There is a 30% chance of no fitness loss,
15% chance of 1 level fitness lost, 15% of 2 levels, and a 10% chance
of each of 3,4,5, or 6 fitness levels being lost. 
This fitness loss (if any) takes place at the end of the session, for 
reasons of simplicity. Should a player be injured twice or
more in a session, only the most severe injury will apply.


*******  CLEVEDON TOWN FC CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
   - Clevedon Town FC Team Hardness = 0
   - Bedford Town FC Team Hardness = 0
   - All (except Gk) chance of injury = 2.5%
   - Gk chance of injury = 1.25%
Gk Thibaut Pouliquen: Chance of injury = 1.25% | Random number = 23.37 (no injury) 
Sw Niels Pedersen: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 59.84 (no injury) 
Df Christopher Kerr: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 79.99 (no injury) 
Df Finn Kelly: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 87.99 (no injury) 
Df Kai Hawkins: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 87.43 (no injury) 
Mf Callum McCarthy: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 99.7 (no injury) 
Mf Oliver Chaffersey: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 17.79 (no injury) 
Mf David Collins: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 20.64 (no injury) 
Fw Max Black: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 63.34 (no injury) 
Fw Francis Richards: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 4.06 (no injury) 
Fw Glen Cole: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 45.93 (no injury) 

*******  BEDFORD TOWN FC CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
   - Bedford Town FC Team Hardness = 0
   - Clevedon Town FC Team Hardness = 0
   - All (except Gk) chance of injury = 2.5%
   - Gk chance of injury = 1.25%
Gk Harley Cole: Chance of injury = 1.25% | Random number = 73.77 (no injury) 
Sw Ian Moore: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 7.65 (no injury) 
Df Max Hermansson: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 76.45 (no injury) 
Df Ben Collins: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 86.99 (no injury) 
Mf Carlton Bishop: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 87.46 (no injury) 
Mf Eli Yosef: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 31.15 (no injury) 
Mf Michael Carroll: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 38.19 (no injury) 
Mf Dylan Grant: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 10.18 (no injury) 
Fw Gerry Walker: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 16.43 (no injury) 
Fw Zak Bell: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 74.07 (no injury) 
Fw Alexander Stewart: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 13.81 (no injury) 
============================================================================
============================================================================
P  E  N  A  L  T  Y     K  I  C  K  S

There is a 10% chance of conceding a penalty for every hardness point used.
Each 10% chance is separate, so a team could concede as many penalties as it plays
hardness points. If no hardness is used, there is still a 5% penalty chance. 
The chance of a penalty being scored is: 
  50 + (4 x penalty takers skill) - (2 x Gk skill)  %    (to a maximum 95%)

*******  BEDFORD TOWN FC CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
   - Team Hardness: 0; (1 5% chance of yielding a PK)
   - PK Taker: Francis Richards SL 16
   - Defending Gk: Harley Cole SL 2

     intRndPk = 59
1: Chance of PK occurring = 5% | Random number = 59 (no penalty kick)

*******  CLEVEDON TOWN FC CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
   - Team Hardness: 0; (1 5% chance of yielding a PK)
   - PK Taker: Carlton Bishop SL 14
   - Defending Gk: Thibaut Pouliquen SL 15

     intRndPk = 95
1: Chance of PK occurring = 5% | Random number = 95 (no penalty kick)
============================================================================
============================================================================
A  T  T  A  C  K  I  N  G      C  H  A  N  C  E  S      &      S  H  O  T  S

  (i)   If team A's Fw area total is greater than team B's Df area total, 
        then A earns a number of attacks equal to the difference.
        Note: A Sw  does NOT add his levels to the Df in this league! 

  (ii)  The team with the highest Mf area total gets attacks equal to half
        the difference.

  (iii) If team A's Df area total is greater than team B's Fw total, then  
        team A earns a number of attacks equal to one fifth of the difference.
        If team A is playing a sweeper behind the defence, this rises to one 
        third of the difference.  All fractions of attacks are rounded up, 
        and then each of the attacks is treated as follows to see how many 
        produce shots, then goals: 

  (iv)  Attacks have first to beat the Sw (if playing!).  For each attack,
        there is a percentage chance of it being stopped equal to:
              30 + (Sw level x 2) % 
        (eg a level 10 Sw stops 30+10x2=50% of attacks.) Attacks passing the 
        Sw become shots.

  (v)   Each shot has a 35% chance of being off-target. If a side has scored
        2 goals this rises to 40%, then by a further 5% after each goal scored,
        to a maximum of 75%. This is to curb ridiculous scorelines (with luck!)

  (vi)  Finally, on-target shots come up against the  Gk. This is similar to 
        the Sw test, but the percentage is:
        40 + (Gk level x 2.25) % 

  Notes: If the defense is playing offside trap then the offensive team has
         their Fw attacks cut in half and theor Mf attacks doubled.

         A team choosing to PFD has 7 extra levels to split between Sw, 
         Df and Mf areas, but their attacks for each area will be halved 
         (round up fractions).

*******  CLEVEDON TOWN FC ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
  AREA TOTALS             GK  Sw  Df  Mf  Fw
  -------------------------------------------
  Clevedon Town FC         17  16  41  39  50
  Bedford Town FC          4  11  27  53  45

Clevedon Town FC Fw Attacks = 23 (50 - 27); result rounded up
Clevedon Town FC Mf Attacks = 0 ((39 - 53) / 2;  rounded up)
Clevedon Town FC Df Attacks = 0 ((41 - 45) / 3;  rounded up)
Clevedon Town FC Total Attacks = 23

1: Attack for Fw Max Black
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 86 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 32 (Shot Off Target) 
2: Attack for Fw Francis Richards
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 76 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 16 (Shot Off Target) 
3: Attack for Fw Francis Richards
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 94 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 16 (Shot Off Target) 
4: Attack for Fw Glen Cole
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 6 (Sw stopped attack) 
5: Attack for Fw Francis Richards
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 43 (Sw stopped attack) 
6: Attack for Fw Francis Richards
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 54 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 7 (Shot Off Target) 
7: Attack for Fw Max Black
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 96 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 49 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 49.0% | Random number = 68.07 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 
8: Attack for Fw Max Black
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 64 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 60 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 49.0% | Random number = 86.99 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 
9: Attack for Fw Glen Cole
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 72 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 61 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 49.0% | Random number = 70.86 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 
10: Attack for Fw Glen Cole
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 95 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 45% | Random number = 37 (Shot Off Target) 
11: Attack for Fw Max Black
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 21 (Sw stopped attack) 
12: Attack for Fw Max Black
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 81 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 45% | Random number = 66 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 49.0% | Random number = 1.18 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
13: Attack for Fw Max Black
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 54 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 45% | Random number = 57 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 49.0% | Random number = 15.92 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
14: Attack for Fw Francis Richards
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 40 (Sw stopped attack) 
15: Attack for Fw Max Black
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 80 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 45% | Random number = 47 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 49.0% | Random number = 64.32 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 
16: Attack for Fw Francis Richards
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 40 (Sw stopped attack) 
17: Attack for Fw Max Black
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 100 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 50% | Random number = 94 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 49.0% | Random number = 7.41 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
18: Attack for Fw Francis Richards
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 81 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 50% | Random number = 3 (Shot Off Target) 
19: Attack for Fw Francis Richards
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 43 (Sw stopped attack) 
20: Attack for Fw Glen Cole
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 11 (Sw stopped attack) 
21: Attack for Fw Max Black
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 97 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 50% | Random number = 35 (Shot Off Target) 
22: Attack for Fw Max Black
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 92 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 50% | Random number = 69 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 49.0% | Random number = 3.55 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
23: Attack for Fw Francis Richards
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 48 (Sw stopped attack) 

*******  BEDFORD TOWN FC ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
  AREA TOTALS             GK  Sw  Df  Mf  Fw
  -------------------------------------------
  Bedford Town FC          4  11  27  53  45
  Clevedon Town FC         17  16  41  39  50

Bedford Town FC Fw Attacks = 4 (45 - 41); result rounded up
Bedford Town FC Mf Attacks = 7 ((53 - 39) / 2) ; result rounded up
Bedford Town FC Df Attacks = 0 ((27 - 50) / 3;  rounded up)
Bedford Town FC Total Attacks = 11

1: Attack for Mf Carlton Bishop
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 29 (Sw stopped attack) 
2: Attack for Mf Eli Yosef
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 59 (Sw stopped attack) 
3: Attack for Mf Eli Yosef
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 39 (Sw stopped attack) 
4: Attack for Mf Michael Carroll
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 54 (Sw stopped attack) 
5: Attack for Mf Michael Carroll
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 56 (Sw stopped attack) 
6: Attack for Mf Eli Yosef
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 43 (Sw stopped attack) 
7: Attack for Mf Eli Yosef
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 47 (Sw stopped attack) 
8: Attack for Fw Zak Bell
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 80 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 27 (Shot Off Target) 
9: Attack for Fw Zak Bell
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 32 (Sw stopped attack) 
10: Attack for Fw Alexander Stewart
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 48 (Sw stopped attack) 
11: Attack for Fw Zak Bell
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 40 (Sw stopped attack) 
===============================================
     F  I  N  A  L         S  C  O  R  E
CLEVEDON TOWN FC 4  -  BEDFORD TOWN FC 0
 
Match Notes
Bryce flies in from Seattle to oversee this. Bedford arrive. Somewhere, a coin is tossed. I have modelled every possible outcome. They are all fine, I suppose.
Olmec Head Marvin (Goole AFC) 06/10 - 7:30 PM  
To be expected when you don’t have a gk
Simon (Bedford Town FC) 06/13 - 11:13 PM  
Battered
Simon (Bedford Town FC) 06/13 - 11:17 PM  
 
 
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