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Monday, February 2nd, 2026 - 06:17:39 AM (gmt)
 
ball MSWL UNITED ② Season 41 // Landing
 
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Harrogate Railway AFC
Allan Sellers
 
Ilkeston Town FC
Steve Turner
 
 
League Round 1
 
 
 
 

S  T  A  R  T  I  N  G      L  I  N  E  U  P  S

HARROGATE RAILWAY AFC                      ILKESTON TOWN FC

Ps Player Name            SL  FIT  LVL     Ps Player Name            SL  FIT  LVL
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gk Florian De Vos         12    1   13     Gk Tobias Ødegård         14    2   16
Sw Shane Sweeney           6    2    8     Sw Declan Wilson          10    0   10
Df Henry Martin           13    1   14     Df Callum Henderson       11    0   11
Df Gabriel Williams       13    2   15     Df Declan MacLellan        6    2    8
Df Freddy Arboleda        10    2   12     Df Hector  Araya           2    2    4
Df Vegar Aas              10    1   11     Mf Cliff Cooper           10    0   10
Df James Hays              5    2    7     Mf Leron  Katz             6    2    8
Mf Benjamin Healy         13    1   14     Mf Simon Müller            6    2    8
Mf Cliff Gerrard           5    2    7     Mf Martin Lejeune          2    2    4
Fw Conor Thompson         13    0   13     Fw Craig Porterfield       6    2    8
Fw Gordon Burroughs       15    2   17     Fw Harvey Barrett          2    2    4

      Gk Sw Df Mf Fw   A R E A  T O T A L S    Gk Sw Df Mf Fw
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
      13  8 59 21 30        ROSTER TOTALS      16 10 23 30 12    
       0  0  0  0  0          HARDNESS          0  0  0  0  0    
       0  0  0  0  7       HOME ADVANTAGE       0  0  0  0  0    
       0  0  0  0  0  GREAT PERFORMANCE POINTS  0  0  0  0  0    
       0  0  0  0  0        PLAY FOR DRAW       0  3  4  0  0    
=======================================================================
      13  8 59 21 37         T O T A L S       16 13 27 30 12    

============================================================================
============================================================================
B  O  O  K  I  N  G  S

Each player is next given a chance for a yellow/red card.  The first
number listed is the chance for the player to get the yellow/red
card while the second number shows the random number drawn.  If the 
random number is less than or equal to the player's yellow/red card 
chance then the player is sent off.  Note that the chances are as follows:
	- Booking: 1.5 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness))
	- Red Card: 0.25 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness)))

If a player is booked we immediately draw a second number to check
for a 'second yellow' (red card chance) resulting in a sending off.
If a player is not booked we draw a red card chance to see if the player
was given a straight red card.  Note that the aforementioned formula
differs for a Gk where the formula uses the hardness points added to
your Gk area and NOT the team hardness points.

*******  HARROGATE RAILWAY AFC YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
   - Team Hardness = 0
   - Gk   Hardness = 0

Gk Florian De Vos: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 54.39 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 53.45 (no red card)

Sw Shane Sweeney: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 98.59 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 12.1 (no red card)

Df Henry Martin: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 69.43 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 97.02 (no red card)

Df Gabriel Williams: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 76.54 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 62.49 (no red card)

Df Freddy Arboleda: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 2.91 (BOOKED!) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 2.36 (no second yellow)

Df Vegar Aas: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 16.83 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 59.93 (no red card)

Df James Hays: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 4.76 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 57.54 (no red card)

Mf Benjamin Healy: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 38.71 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 45.65 (no red card)

Mf Cliff Gerrard: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 14.94 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 75.09 (no red card)

Fw Conor Thompson: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 47.67 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 69.86 (no red card)

Fw Gordon Burroughs: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 52.07 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 39.07 (no red card)

*******  ILKESTON TOWN FC YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
   - Team Hardness = 0
   - Gk   Hardness = 0

Gk Tobias Ødegård: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 27.92 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 28.53 (no red card)

Sw Declan Wilson: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 54.58 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 9.89 (no red card)

Df Callum Henderson: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 62.07 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 81.21 (no red card)

Df Declan MacLellan: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 16.08 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 12.64 (no red card)

Df Hector  Araya: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 67.19 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 77.25 (no red card)

Mf Cliff Cooper: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 56.94 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 59.21 (no red card)

Mf Leron  Katz: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 16.88 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 44.64 (no red card)

Mf Simon Müller: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 24.41 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 10.98 (no red card)

Mf Martin Lejeune: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 45.49 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 73.54 (no red card)

Fw Craig Porterfield: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 70.46 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 64.38 (no red card)

Fw Harvey Barrett: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 69.18 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 95.68 (no red card)
============================================================================
============================================================================
I  N  J  U  R  I  E  S

A major consequence of hardness is that your opponents get injured. 
For each player the chance of injury is:   
  ((your team’s hardness * .25) + (opponent’s hardness * .75) + 2.5)%.
    For example if your team has a hardness of 8 and the opposition has a hardness of 4,
    the chance of injury for each player would be: 2 + 3 + 2.5 or 7.5%.

The chance is halved for the opposition Gk. A player plays at half 
his normal level (skill plus fitness) in the match in which he is injured.

Injured players lose fitness as a result, the amount of fitness lost being
shown on the game report in brackets. There is a 30% chance of no fitness loss,
15% chance of 1 level fitness lost, 15% of 2 levels, and a 10% chance
of each of 3,4,5, or 6 fitness levels being lost. 
This fitness loss (if any) takes place at the end of the session, for 
reasons of simplicity. Should a player be injured twice or
more in a session, only the most severe injury will apply.


*******  HARROGATE RAILWAY AFC CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
   - Harrogate Railway AFC Team Hardness = 0
   - Ilkeston Town FC Team Hardness = 0
   - All (except Gk) chance of injury = 2.5%
   - Gk chance of injury = 1.25%
Gk Florian De Vos: Chance of injury = 1.25% | Random number = 65.64 (no injury) 
Sw Shane Sweeney: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 19.8 (no injury) 
Df Henry Martin: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 22.94 (no injury) 
Df Gabriel Williams: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 94.11 (no injury) 
Df Freddy Arboleda: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 75.97 (no injury) 
Df Vegar Aas: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 12.41 (no injury) 
Df James Hays: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 45.59 (no injury) 
Mf Benjamin Healy: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 90.21 (no injury) 
Mf Cliff Gerrard: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 89.59 (no injury) 
Fw Conor Thompson: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 51.55 (no injury) 
Fw Gordon Burroughs: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 16.17 (no injury) 

*******  ILKESTON TOWN FC CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
   - Ilkeston Town FC Team Hardness = 0
   - Harrogate Railway AFC Team Hardness = 0
   - All (except Gk) chance of injury = 2.5%
   - Gk chance of injury = 1.25%
Gk Tobias Ødegård: Chance of injury = 1.25% | Random number = 53.99 (no injury) 
Sw Declan Wilson: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 64.77 (no injury) 
Df Callum Henderson: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 12.01 (no injury) 
Df Declan MacLellan: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 65.91 (no injury) 
Df Hector  Araya: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 47.12 (no injury) 
Mf Cliff Cooper: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 35.15 (no injury) 
Mf Leron  Katz: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 76.8 (no injury) 
Mf Simon Müller: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 66.37 (no injury) 
Mf Martin Lejeune: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 56.15 (no injury) 
Fw Craig Porterfield: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 90.87 (no injury) 
Fw Harvey Barrett: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 17.07 (no injury) 
============================================================================
============================================================================
P  E  N  A  L  T  Y     K  I  C  K  S

There is a 10% chance of conceding a penalty for every hardness point used.
Each 10% chance is separate, so a team could concede as many penalties as it plays
hardness points. If no hardness is used, there is still a 5% penalty chance. 
The chance of a penalty being scored is: 
  50 + (4 x penalty takers skill) - (2 x Gk skill)  %    (to a maximum 95%)

*******  ILKESTON TOWN FC CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
   - Team Hardness: 0; (1 5% chance of yielding a PK)
   - PK Taker: Gordon Burroughs SL 15
   - Defending Gk: Tobias Ødegård SL 14

     intRndPk = 65
1: Chance of PK occurring = 5% | Random number = 65 (no penalty kick)

*******  HARROGATE RAILWAY AFC CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
   - Team Hardness: 0; (1 5% chance of yielding a PK)
   - PK Taker: Callum Henderson SL 11
   - Defending Gk: Florian De Vos SL 12

     intRndPk = 54
1: Chance of PK occurring = 5% | Random number = 54 (no penalty kick)
============================================================================
============================================================================
A  T  T  A  C  K  I  N  G      C  H  A  N  C  E  S      &      S  H  O  T  S

  (i)   If team A's Fw area total is greater than team B's Df area total, 
        then A earns a number of attacks equal to the difference.
        Note: A Sw  does NOT add his levels to the Df in this league! 

  (ii)  The team with the highest Mf area total gets attacks equal to half
        the difference.

  (iii) If team A's Df area total is greater than team B's Fw total, then  
        team A earns a number of attacks equal to one fifth of the difference.
        If team A is playing a sweeper behind the defence, this rises to one 
        third of the difference.  All fractions of attacks are rounded up, 
        and then each of the attacks is treated as follows to see how many 
        produce shots, then goals: 

  (iv)  Attacks have first to beat the Sw (if playing!).  For each attack,
        there is a percentage chance of it being stopped equal to:
              30 + (Sw level x 2) % 
        (eg a level 10 Sw stops 30+10x2=50% of attacks.) Attacks passing the 
        Sw become shots.

  (v)   Each shot has a 35% chance of being off-target. If a side has scored
        2 goals this rises to 40%, then by a further 5% after each goal scored,
        to a maximum of 75%. This is to curb ridiculous scorelines (with luck!)

  (vi)  Finally, on-target shots come up against the  Gk. This is similar to 
        the Sw test, but the percentage is:
        40 + (Gk level x 2.25) % 

  Notes: If the defense is playing offside trap then the offensive team has
         their Fw attacks cut in half and theor Mf attacks doubled.

         A team choosing to PFD has 7 extra levels to split between Sw, 
         Df and Mf areas, but their attacks for each area will be halved 
         (round up fractions).

*******  HARROGATE RAILWAY AFC ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
  AREA TOTALS             GK  Sw  Df  Mf  Fw
  -------------------------------------------
  Harrogate Railway AFC    13   8  59  21  37
  Ilkeston Town FC         16  13  27  30  12

Harrogate Railway AFC Fw Attacks = 10 (37 - 27); result rounded up
Harrogate Railway AFC Mf Attacks = 0 ((21 - 30) / 2;  rounded up)
Harrogate Railway AFC Df Attacks = 16 ((59 - 12) / 3); result rounded up
Harrogate Railway AFC Total Attacks = 26

1: Attack for Df James Hays
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 77 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 97 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 76.0% | Random number = 25.16 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
2: Attack for Df Gabriel Williams
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 44 (Sw stopped attack) 
3: Attack for Df Gabriel Williams
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 88 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 54 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 76.0% | Random number = 98.89 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 
4: Attack for Df Gabriel Williams
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 79 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 84 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 76.0% | Random number = 49.62 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
5: Attack for Df James Hays
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 52 (Sw stopped attack) 
6: Attack for Df Henry Martin
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 19 (Sw stopped attack) 
7: Attack for Df Gabriel Williams
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 89 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 79 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 76.0% | Random number = 71.62 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
8: Attack for Df Henry Martin
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 52 (Sw stopped attack) 
9: Attack for Df Gabriel Williams
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 63 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 74 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 76.0% | Random number = 61.09 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
10: Attack for Df James Hays
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 26 (Sw stopped attack) 
11: Attack for Df Henry Martin
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 58 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 46 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 76.0% | Random number = 88.48 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 
12: Attack for Df Henry Martin
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 60 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 79 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 76.0% | Random number = 21.85 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
13: Attack for Df Freddy Arboleda
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 90 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 83 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 76.0% | Random number = 55.31 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
14: Attack for Df Gabriel Williams
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 51 (Sw stopped attack) 
15: Attack for Df Henry Martin
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 10 (Sw stopped attack) 
16: Attack for Df Vegar Aas
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 11 (Sw stopped attack) 
17: Attack for Fw Gordon Burroughs
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 30 (Sw stopped attack) 
18: Attack for Fw Gordon Burroughs
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 22 (Sw stopped attack) 
19: Attack for Fw Conor Thompson
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 76 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 36 (Shot Off Target) 
20: Attack for Fw Gordon Burroughs
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 61 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 47 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 76.0% | Random number = 59.75 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
21: Attack for Fw Conor Thompson
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 7 (Sw stopped attack) 
22: Attack for Fw Conor Thompson
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 66 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 18 (Shot Off Target) 
23: Attack for Fw Conor Thompson
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 22 (Sw stopped attack) 
24: Attack for Fw Gordon Burroughs
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 76 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 9 (Shot Off Target) 
25: Attack for Fw Conor Thompson
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 94 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 90 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 76.0% | Random number = 99.32 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 
26: Attack for Fw Gordon Burroughs
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 85 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 45% | Random number = 52 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 76.0% | Random number = 22.43 (Shot Saved by Gk) 

*******  ILKESTON TOWN FC ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
  AREA TOTALS             GK  Sw  Df  Mf  Fw
  -------------------------------------------
  Ilkeston Town FC         16  13  27  30  12
  Harrogate Railway AFC    13   8  59  21  37

Ilkeston Town FC is Playing For A Draw!
Ilkeston Town FC Fw Attacks = 0 (12 - 59)
Ilkeston Town FC Mf Attacks = 2 ((30 - 21) / 2)  * 0.5 (Play For Draw Multiplier); result rounded up
Ilkeston Town FC Df Attacks = 0 ((27 - 37) / 3;  rounded up)
Ilkeston Town FC Total Attacks = 2

1: Attack for Mf Cliff Cooper
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 46% | Random number = 92 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 20 (Shot Off Target) 
2: Attack for Mf Cliff Cooper
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 46% | Random number = 20 (Sw stopped attack) 
===============================================
     F  I  N  A  L         S  C  O  R  E
HARROGATE RAILWAY AFC 3  -  ILKESTON TOWN FC 0
 
Match Notes
Tough 3rd Division opener against the #1 T-16 club in the division.
Allan (Harrogate Railway AFC) 01/11 - 3:15 PM
Fortunate to get the Ilkeston Town Youth Cup squad today.
Allan (Harrogate Railway AFC) 01/17 - 10:40 PM
Our Sw didn't stop 56%, their shots on target were better than 65% and our Gk didn't stop 76% 2-0 would have been fairer
Steve (Ilkeston Town FC) 01/18 - 12:48 AM
 
 
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