(H)
Ilkeston Town FC
Steve Turner
AFC Rushden & Diamonds
John Holden
League Round 9
S T A R T I N G L I N E U P S
ILKESTON TOWN FC AFC RUSHDEN & DIAMONDS
Ps Player Name SL FIT LVL Ps Player Name SL FIT LVL
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Gk Tobias Ødegård 16 2 18 Gk Kevin Hawkins 16 1 17
Sw Florian Schmid 13 2 15 Df Leonardo Greco 11 2 13
Df Leo McNeill 13 1 14 Df Baron Jackson 11 2 13
Df Declan MacLellan 12 2 14 Df Gareth Trickelbank 11 0 11
Mf Leron Katz 10 1 11 Df Eoin Hays 10 0 10
Mf Martin Lejeune 7 2 9 Df Hayden Duncan 8 2 10
Fw Marcos Nuñez 15 2 17 Mf Gareth Scott 13 1 14
Fw Craig Porterfield 12 2 14 Mf Gabriel Welbeck 13 0 13
Fw Marcos Pinto 12 2 14 Fw Fernando Cano 14 0 14
Fw Alex Murphy 12 1 13 Fw Sam East 15 1 16
Fw Geoffrey Hill 11 2 13 Fw William Bell 10 2 12
Gk Sw Df Mf Fw A R E A T O T A L S Gk Sw Df Mf Fw
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18 15 28 20 71 ROSTER TOTALS 17 0 57 27 42
0 0 0 0 0 HARDNESS 1 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 5 4 HOME ADVANTAGE 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 GREAT PERFORMANCE POINTS 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 PLAY FOR DRAW 0 0 7 0 0
=======================================================================
18 15 28 25 75 T O T A L S 18 0 64 27 42
============================================================================
============================================================================
B O O K I N G S
Each player is next given a chance for a yellow/red card. The first
number listed is the chance for the player to get the yellow/red
card while the second number shows the random number drawn. If the
random number is less than or equal to the player's yellow/red card
chance then the player is sent off. Note that the chances are as follows:
- Booking: 1.5 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness))
- Red Card: 0.25 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness)))
If a player is booked we immediately draw a second number to check
for a 'second yellow' (red card chance) resulting in a sending off.
If a player is not booked we draw a red card chance to see if the player
was given a straight red card. Note that the aforementioned formula
differs for a Gk where the formula uses the hardness points added to
your Gk area and NOT the team hardness points.
******* ILKESTON TOWN FC YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
- Team Hardness = 0
- Gk Hardness = 0
Gk Tobias Ødegård: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 93.86 (no booking)
Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 74.69 (no red card)
Sw Florian Schmid: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 19.44 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 30.08 (no red card)
Df Leo McNeill: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 96.69 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 65.17 (no red card)
Df Declan MacLellan: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 4.57 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 50.86 (no red card)
Mf Leron Katz: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 84.63 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 58.44 (no red card)
Mf Martin Lejeune: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 27.39 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 74.42 (no red card)
Fw Marcos Nuñez: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 13.84 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 63.31 (no red card)
Fw Craig Porterfield: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 41.87 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 44.48 (no red card)
Fw Marcos Pinto: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 76.75 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 17.83 (no red card)
Fw Alex Murphy: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 17.36 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 16.61 (no red card)
Fw Geoffrey Hill: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 1.51 (BOOKED!)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 26.04 (no second yellow)
******* AFC RUSHDEN & DIAMONDS YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
- Team Hardness = 1
- Gk Hardness = 1
Gk Kevin Hawkins: Chance of booking = 6.75% | Random number = 28.46 (no booking)
Chance of straight red card = 1.0% | Random number = 56.61 (no red card)
Df Leonardo Greco: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 2.32 (BOOKED!)
Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 41.42 (no second yellow)
Df Baron Jackson: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 87.28 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 98.62 (no red card)
Df Gareth Trickelbank: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 88.65 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 50.06 (no red card)
Df Eoin Hays: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 95.05 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 6.76 (no red card)
Df Hayden Duncan: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 41.69 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 42.25 (no red card)
Mf Gareth Scott: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 4.16 (BOOKED!)
Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 87.1 (no second yellow)
Mf Gabriel Welbeck: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 98.07 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 70.21 (no red card)
Fw Fernando Cano: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 26.06 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 9.34 (no red card)
Fw Sam East: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 35.95 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 77.24 (no red card)
Fw William Bell: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 7.72 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 18.46 (no red card)
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============================================================================
I N J U R I E S
A major consequence of hardness is that your opponents get injured.
For each player the chance of injury is:
((your team’s hardness * .25) + (opponent’s hardness * .75) + 2.5)%.
For example if your team has a hardness of 8 and the opposition has a hardness of 4,
the chance of injury for each player would be: 2 + 3 + 2.5 or 7.5%.
The chance is halved for the opposition Gk. A player plays at half
his normal level (skill plus fitness) in the match in which he is injured.
Injured players lose fitness as a result, the amount of fitness lost being
shown on the game report in brackets. There is a 30% chance of no fitness loss,
15% chance of 1 level fitness lost, 15% of 2 levels, and a 10% chance
of each of 3,4,5, or 6 fitness levels being lost.
This fitness loss (if any) takes place at the end of the session, for
reasons of simplicity. Should a player be injured twice or
more in a session, only the most severe injury will apply.
******* ILKESTON TOWN FC CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
- Ilkeston Town FC Team Hardness = 0
- AFC Rushden & Diamonds Team Hardness = 1
- All (except Gk) chance of injury = 3.25%
- Gk chance of injury = 1.62%
Gk Tobias Ødegård: Chance of injury = 1.62% | Random number = 24.03 (no injury)
Sw Florian Schmid: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 59.09 (no injury)
Df Leo McNeill: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 41.97 (no injury)
Df Declan MacLellan: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 19.42 (no injury)
Mf Leron Katz: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 44.07 (no injury)
Mf Martin Lejeune: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 37.82 (no injury)
Fw Marcos Nuñez: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 16.09 (no injury)
Fw Craig Porterfield: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 0.14 (INJURED!)
Targeted fitness lost = 0
Craig Porterfield is being assisted by the Physio and appears to be just fine.
Fw Marcos Pinto: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 93.46 (no injury)
Fw Alex Murphy: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 54.73 (no injury)
Fw Geoffrey Hill: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 3.62 (no injury)
******* AFC RUSHDEN & DIAMONDS CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
- AFC Rushden & Diamonds Team Hardness = 1
- Ilkeston Town FC Team Hardness = 0
- All (except Gk) chance of injury = 2.75%
- Gk chance of injury = 1.37%
Gk Kevin Hawkins: Chance of injury = 1.37% | Random number = 37.54 (no injury)
Df Leonardo Greco: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 2.53 (INJURED!)
Targeted fitness lost = 6
Leonardo Greco is being assisted by the Physio. He will lose 5 fitness points (deducted at end of session)
Leonardo Greco new match skill level = 6
Leonardo Greco new match total level = 8
Df Baron Jackson: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 23.74 (no injury)
Df Gareth Trickelbank: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 77.55 (no injury)
Df Eoin Hays: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 8.83 (no injury)
Df Hayden Duncan: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 53.44 (no injury)
Mf Gareth Scott: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 25.0 (no injury)
Mf Gabriel Welbeck: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 72.38 (no injury)
Fw Fernando Cano: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 29.94 (no injury)
Fw Sam East: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 40.27 (no injury)
Fw William Bell: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 34.92 (no injury)
============================================================================
============================================================================
P E N A L T Y K I C K S
There is a 10% chance of conceding a penalty for every hardness point used.
Each 10% chance is separate, so a team could concede as many penalties as it plays
hardness points. If no hardness is used, there is still a 5% penalty chance.
The chance of a penalty being scored is:
50 + (4 x penalty takers skill) - (2 x Gk skill) % (to a maximum 95%)
******* AFC RUSHDEN & DIAMONDS CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
- Team Hardness: 1; (1 10% chance of yielding a PK)
- PK Taker: Marcos Nuñez SL 15
- Defending Gk: Kevin Hawkins SL 16
1: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 23 (no penalty kick)
******* ILKESTON TOWN FC CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
- Team Hardness: 0; (1 5% chance of yielding a PK)
- PK Taker: Sam East SL 15
- Defending Gk: Tobias Ødegård SL 16
intRndPk = 67
1: Chance of PK occurring = 5% | Random number = 67 (no penalty kick)
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A T T A C K I N G C H A N C E S & S H O T S
(i) If team A's Fw area total is greater than team B's Df area total,
then A earns a number of attacks equal to the difference.
Note: A Sw does NOT add his levels to the Df in this league!
(ii) The team with the highest Mf area total gets attacks equal to half
the difference.
(iii) If team A's Df area total is greater than team B's Fw total, then
team A earns a number of attacks equal to one fifth of the difference.
If team A is playing a sweeper behind the defence, this rises to one
third of the difference. All fractions of attacks are rounded up,
and then each of the attacks is treated as follows to see how many
produce shots, then goals:
(iv) Attacks have first to beat the Sw (if playing!). For each attack,
there is a percentage chance of it being stopped equal to:
30 + (Sw level x 2) %
(eg a level 10 Sw stops 30+10x2=50% of attacks.) Attacks passing the
Sw become shots.
(v) Each shot has a 35% chance of being off-target. If a side has scored
2 goals this rises to 40%, then by a further 5% after each goal scored,
to a maximum of 75%. This is to curb ridiculous scorelines (with luck!)
(vi) Finally, on-target shots come up against the Gk. This is similar to
the Sw test, but the percentage is:
40 + (Gk level x 2.25) %
Notes: If the defense is playing offside trap then the offensive team has
their Fw attacks cut in half and theor Mf attacks doubled.
A team choosing to PFD has 7 extra levels to split between Sw,
Df and Mf areas, but their attacks for each area will be halved
(round up fractions).
******* ILKESTON TOWN FC ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
AREA TOTALS GK Sw Df Mf Fw
-------------------------------------------
Ilkeston Town FC 18 15 28 25 75
AFC Rushden & Diamonds 18 0 59 27 42
AFC Rushden & Diamonds is using Offside Trap!
Ilkeston Town FC Fw Attacks = 8 (75 - 59) * 0.5 (OST Multiplier) ; result rounded up
Ilkeston Town FC Mf Attacks = 0 ((25 - 27) / 2; rounded up)
Ilkeston Town FC Df Attacks = 0 ((28 - 42) / 3; rounded up)
Ilkeston Town FC Total Attacks = 8
1: Attack for Fw Craig Porterfield
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for AFC Rushden & Diamonds
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 38 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 80.5% | Random number = 70.45 (Shot Saved by Gk)
2: Attack for Fw Marcos Pinto
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for AFC Rushden & Diamonds
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 5 (Shot Off Target)
3: Attack for Fw Marcos Nuñez
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for AFC Rushden & Diamonds
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 83 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 80.5% | Random number = 20.17 (Shot Saved by Gk)
4: Attack for Fw Marcos Pinto
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for AFC Rushden & Diamonds
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 65 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 80.5% | Random number = 67.93 (Shot Saved by Gk)
5: Attack for Fw Alex Murphy
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for AFC Rushden & Diamonds
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 16 (Shot Off Target)
6: Attack for Fw Geoffrey Hill
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for AFC Rushden & Diamonds
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 27 (Shot Off Target)
7: Attack for Fw Marcos Nuñez
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for AFC Rushden & Diamonds
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 37 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 80.5% | Random number = 26.01 (Shot Saved by Gk)
8: Attack for Fw Marcos Nuñez
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for AFC Rushden & Diamonds
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 71 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 80.5% | Random number = 86.84 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!)
******* AFC RUSHDEN & DIAMONDS ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
AREA TOTALS GK Sw Df Mf Fw
-------------------------------------------
AFC Rushden & Diamonds 18 0 59 27 42
Ilkeston Town FC 18 15 28 25 75
AFC Rushden & Diamonds is Playing For A Draw!
AFC Rushden & Diamonds Fw Attacks = 7 (42 - 28) * 0.5 (Play For Draw Multiplier); result rounded up
AFC Rushden & Diamonds Mf Attacks = 1 ((27 - 25) / 2) * 0.5 (Play For Draw Multiplier); result rounded up
AFC Rushden & Diamonds Df Attacks = 0 ((59 - 75) / 5; rounded up)
AFC Rushden & Diamonds Total Attacks = 8
1: Attack for Mf Gareth Scott
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 14 (Sw stopped attack)
2: Attack for Fw Sam East
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 9 (Sw stopped attack)
3: Attack for Fw Fernando Cano
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 17 (Sw stopped attack)
4: Attack for Fw Fernando Cano
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 55 (Sw stopped attack)
5: Attack for Fw Sam East
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 69 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 2 (Shot Off Target)
6: Attack for Fw William Bell
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 19 (Sw stopped attack)
7: Attack for Fw Sam East
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 51 (Sw stopped attack)
8: Attack for Fw Sam East
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 59 (Sw stopped attack)
===============================================
F I N A L S C O R E
ILKESTON TOWN FC 1 - AFC RUSHDEN & DIAMONDS 0
Match Notes
Olmec Steve prepares his Ilkeston side. Rushden arrive. Two clubs, one ball, the inevitable passage of time. I have run the calculations. They all end the same way.
Olmec Head Marvin (Goole AFC) 06/10 - 7:30 PM
Chalk and cheese from Olmec with my two teams.
Steve (Ilkeston Town FC) 06/13 - 7:09 PM
Injury cost me a point here.
John (AFC Rushden & Diamonds) 06/13 - 7:54 PM
Chalk is bad and cheese is good?
Allan (Harrogate Railway AFC) 06/14 - 1:07 AM
Not if you’re trying to write on a blackboard….
Roger (Chasetown FC) 06/14 - 7:37 AM