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Tranmere Rovers
Alon Atie
 
Carlisle United
Dave Gittins
 
 
League Round 5
 
 
 
 

S  T  A  R  T  I  N  G      L  I  N  E  U  P  S

TRANMERE ROVERS                            CARLISLE UNITED

Ps Player Name            SL  FIT  LVL     Ps Player Name            SL  FIT  LVL
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gk Archie Harewood        13    2   15     Gk Billy Rooney           14    1   15
Sw Pedro Muñoz            16    2   18     Sw Sean Peverell          13    1   14
Df Reidar Myklebust       13    1   14     Df Algenon Milner         13    0   13
Df Peter Lee              10    2   12     Df Reece Hutchinson       11    2   13
Df Daniel Johnston         9    1   10     Df Mohamed Cherkaoui       6    2    8
Mf Kyle McAdam            13    2   15     Mf Finn Brown             13    0   13
Mf Joe Taylor             10    1   11     Fw Lewis Young             9    2   11
Fw Afonso Ribeiro         13    1   14     Mf Emile Bateman           6    2    8
Fw Santiago Romero        12    0   12     Fw Nigel Nicholson        16    1   17
Fw Luca Schmid            10    2   12     Fw Leon Stevens           12    0   12
Fw Juan Manuel Castro     10    0   10     Fw Kyle Bruce             11    2   13

      Gk Sw Df Mf Fw   A R E A  T O T A L S    Gk Sw Df Mf Fw
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
      15 18 36 26 48        ROSTER TOTALS      15 14 34 21 53    
       1  0  0  0  0          HARDNESS          0  0  0  0  0    
       0  0  0  0  9       HOME ADVANTAGE       0  0  0  0  0    
       0  0  0  0  0  GREAT PERFORMANCE POINTS  0  0  0  3  0    
       0  0  0  0  0        PLAY FOR DRAW       0  0  0  0  0    
=======================================================================
      16 18 36 26 57         T O T A L S       15 14 34 24 53    

============================================================================
============================================================================
B  O  O  K  I  N  G  S

Each player is next given a chance for a yellow/red card.  The first
number listed is the chance for the player to get the yellow/red
card while the second number shows the random number drawn.  If the 
random number is less than or equal to the player's yellow/red card 
chance then the player is sent off.  Note that the chances are as follows:
	- Booking: 1.5 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness))
	- Red Card: 0.25 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness)))

If a player is booked we immediately draw a second number to check
for a 'second yellow' (red card chance) resulting in a sending off.
If a player is not booked we draw a red card chance to see if the player
was given a straight red card.  Note that the aforementioned formula
differs for a Gk where the formula uses the hardness points added to
your Gk area and NOT the team hardness points.

*******  TRANMERE ROVERS YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
   - Team Hardness = 1
   - Gk   Hardness = 1

Gk Archie Harewood: Chance of booking = 6.75% | Random number = 26.45 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.125% | Random number = 22.85 (no red card)

Sw Pedro Muñoz: Chance of booking = 6.75% | Random number = 58.31 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.12% | Random number = 23.17 (no red card)

Df Reidar Myklebust: Chance of booking = 6.75% | Random number = 97.28 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.12% | Random number = 40.5 (no red card)

Df Peter Lee: Chance of booking = 6.75% | Random number = 81.27 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.12% | Random number = 28.42 (no red card)

Df Daniel Johnston: Chance of booking = 6.75% | Random number = 69.42 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.12% | Random number = 87.88 (no red card)

Mf Kyle McAdam: Chance of booking = 6.75% | Random number = 0.98 (BOOKED!) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.12% | Random number = 37.88 (no second yellow)

Mf Joe Taylor: Chance of booking = 6.75% | Random number = 25.33 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.12% | Random number = 72.66 (no red card)

Fw Afonso Ribeiro: Chance of booking = 6.75% | Random number = 49.24 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.12% | Random number = 19.79 (no red card)

Fw Santiago Romero: Chance of booking = 6.75% | Random number = 97.88 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.12% | Random number = 86.31 (no red card)

Fw Luca Schmid: Chance of booking = 6.75% | Random number = 40.99 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.12% | Random number = 68.12 (no red card)

Fw Juan Manuel Castro: Chance of booking = 6.75% | Random number = 88.94 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.12% | Random number = 90.89 (no red card)

*******  CARLISLE UNITED YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
   - Team Hardness = 0
   - Gk   Hardness = 0

Gk Billy Rooney: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 34.29 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 21.85 (no red card)

Sw Sean Peverell: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 73.23 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 72.6 (no red card)

Df Algenon Milner: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 41.98 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 65.74 (no red card)

Df Reece Hutchinson: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 39.92 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 6.56 (no red card)

Df Mohamed Cherkaoui: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 92.11 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 61.89 (no red card)

Mf Finn Brown: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 39.75 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 18.12 (no red card)

Fw Lewis Young: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 13.01 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 97.75 (no red card)

Mf Emile Bateman: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 9.78 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 85.73 (no red card)

Fw Nigel Nicholson: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 12.53 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 0.24 (STRAIGHT RED CARD! SENT OFF!!!)
      Nigel Nicholson new match skill level =  8
      Nigel Nicholson new match total level =  9

Fw Leon Stevens: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 3.85 (BOOKED!) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 47.11 (no second yellow)

Fw Kyle Bruce: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 56.94 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 59.1 (no red card)
============================================================================
============================================================================
I  N  J  U  R  I  E  S

A major consequence of hardness is that your opponents get injured. 
For each player the chance of injury is:   
  ((your team’s hardness * .25) + (opponent’s hardness * .75) + 2.5)%.
    For example if your team has a hardness of 8 and the opposition has a hardness of 4,
    the chance of injury for each player would be: 2 + 3 + 2.5 or 7.5%.

The chance is halved for the opposition Gk. A player plays at half 
his normal level (skill plus fitness) in the match in which he is injured.

Injured players lose fitness as a result, the amount of fitness lost being
shown on the game report in brackets. There is a 30% chance of no fitness loss,
15% chance of 1 level fitness lost, 15% of 2 levels, and a 10% chance
of each of 3,4,5, or 6 fitness levels being lost. 
This fitness loss (if any) takes place at the end of the session, for 
reasons of simplicity. Should a player be injured twice or
more in a session, only the most severe injury will apply.


*******  TRANMERE ROVERS CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
   - Tranmere Rovers Team Hardness = 1
   - Carlisle United Team Hardness = 0
   - All (except Gk) chance of injury = 2.75%
   - Gk chance of injury = 1.37%
Gk Archie Harewood: Chance of injury = 1.37% | Random number = 53.42 (no injury) 
Sw Pedro Muñoz: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 77.85 (no injury) 
Df Reidar Myklebust: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 22.65 (no injury) 
Df Peter Lee: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 19.21 (no injury) 
Df Daniel Johnston: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 5.33 (no injury) 
Mf Kyle McAdam: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 27.66 (no injury) 
Mf Joe Taylor: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 8.81 (no injury) 
Fw Afonso Ribeiro: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 63.99 (no injury) 
Fw Santiago Romero: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 59.09 (no injury) 
Fw Luca Schmid: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 92.8 (no injury) 
Fw Juan Manuel Castro: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 83.04 (no injury) 

*******  CARLISLE UNITED CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
   - Carlisle United Team Hardness = 0
   - Tranmere Rovers Team Hardness = 1
   - All (except Gk) chance of injury = 3.25%
   - Gk chance of injury = 1.62%
Gk Billy Rooney: Chance of injury = 1.62% | Random number = 47.33 (no injury) 
Sw Sean Peverell: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 15.19 (no injury) 
Df Algenon Milner: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 4.75 (no injury) 
Df Reece Hutchinson: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 41.56 (no injury) 
Df Mohamed Cherkaoui: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 18.04 (no injury) 
Mf Finn Brown: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 81.58 (no injury) 
Fw Lewis Young: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 74.55 (no injury) 
Mf Emile Bateman: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 11.18 (no injury) 
Fw Nigel Nicholson: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 91.61 (no injury) 
Fw Leon Stevens: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 31.77 (no injury) 
Fw Kyle Bruce: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 91.78 (no injury) 
============================================================================
============================================================================
P  E  N  A  L  T  Y     K  I  C  K  S

There is a 10% chance of conceding a penalty for every hardness point used.
Each 10% chance is separate, so a team could concede as many penalties as it plays
hardness points. If no hardness is used, there is still a 5% penalty chance. 
The chance of a penalty being scored is: 
  50 + (4 x penalty takers skill) - (2 x Gk skill)  %    (to a maximum 95%)

*******  CARLISLE UNITED CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
   - Team Hardness: 0; (1 5% chance of yielding a PK)
   - PK Taker: Reidar Myklebust SL 13
   - Defending Gk: Billy Rooney SL 14

     intRndPk = 85
1: Chance of PK occurring = 5% | Random number = 85 (no penalty kick)

*******  TRANMERE ROVERS CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
   - Team Hardness: 1; (1 10% chance of yielding a PK)
   - PK Taker: Algenon Milner SL 13
   - Defending Gk: Archie Harewood SL 13

1: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 16 (no penalty kick)
============================================================================
============================================================================
A  T  T  A  C  K  I  N  G      C  H  A  N  C  E  S      &      S  H  O  T  S

  (i)   If team A's Fw area total is greater than team B's Df area total, 
        then A earns a number of attacks equal to the difference.
        Note: A Sw  does NOT add his levels to the Df in this league! 

  (ii)  The team with the highest Mf area total gets attacks equal to half
        the difference.

  (iii) If team A's Df area total is greater than team B's Fw total, then  
        team A earns a number of attacks equal to one fifth of the difference.
        If team A is playing a sweeper behind the defence, this rises to one 
        third of the difference.  All fractions of attacks are rounded up, 
        and then each of the attacks is treated as follows to see how many 
        produce shots, then goals: 

  (iv)  Attacks have first to beat the Sw (if playing!).  For each attack,
        there is a percentage chance of it being stopped equal to:
              30 + (Sw level x 2) % 
        (eg a level 10 Sw stops 30+10x2=50% of attacks.) Attacks passing the 
        Sw become shots.

  (v)   Each shot has a 35% chance of being off-target. If a side has scored
        2 goals this rises to 40%, then by a further 5% after each goal scored,
        to a maximum of 75%. This is to curb ridiculous scorelines (with luck!)

  (vi)  Finally, on-target shots come up against the  Gk. This is similar to 
        the Sw test, but the percentage is:
        40 + (Gk level x 2.25) % 

  Notes: If the defense is playing offside trap then the offensive team has
         their Fw attacks cut in half and theor Mf attacks doubled.

         A team choosing to PFD has 7 extra levels to split between Sw, 
         Df and Mf areas, but their attacks for each area will be halved 
         (round up fractions).

*******  TRANMERE ROVERS ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
  AREA TOTALS             GK  Sw  Df  Mf  Fw
  -------------------------------------------
  Tranmere Rovers          16  18  36  26  57
  Carlisle United          15  14  34  24  45

Tranmere Rovers Fw Attacks = 23 (57 - 34); result rounded up
Tranmere Rovers Mf Attacks = 1 ((26 - 24) / 2) ; result rounded up
Tranmere Rovers Df Attacks = 0 ((36 - 45) / 3;  rounded up)
Tranmere Rovers Total Attacks = 24

1: Attack for Mf Kyle McAdam
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 58% | Random number = 63 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 77 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 73.75% | Random number = 14.39 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
2: Attack for Fw Afonso Ribeiro
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 58% | Random number = 51 (Sw stopped attack) 
3: Attack for Fw Luca Schmid
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 58% | Random number = 85 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 86 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 73.75% | Random number = 18.4 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
4: Attack for Fw Santiago Romero
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 58% | Random number = 21 (Sw stopped attack) 
5: Attack for Fw Afonso Ribeiro
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 58% | Random number = 98 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 27 (Shot Off Target) 
6: Attack for Fw Luca Schmid
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 58% | Random number = 31 (Sw stopped attack) 
7: Attack for Fw Santiago Romero
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 58% | Random number = 54 (Sw stopped attack) 
8: Attack for Fw Santiago Romero
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 58% | Random number = 20 (Sw stopped attack) 
9: Attack for Fw Luca Schmid
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 58% | Random number = 26 (Sw stopped attack) 
10: Attack for Fw Santiago Romero
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 58% | Random number = 25 (Sw stopped attack) 
11: Attack for Fw Juan Manuel Castro
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 58% | Random number = 8 (Sw stopped attack) 
12: Attack for Fw Afonso Ribeiro
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 58% | Random number = 92 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 39 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 73.75% | Random number = 62.84 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
13: Attack for Fw Afonso Ribeiro
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 58% | Random number = 1 (Sw stopped attack) 
14: Attack for Fw Luca Schmid
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 58% | Random number = 54 (Sw stopped attack) 
15: Attack for Fw Afonso Ribeiro
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 58% | Random number = 57 (Sw stopped attack) 
16: Attack for Fw Juan Manuel Castro
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 58% | Random number = 13 (Sw stopped attack) 
17: Attack for Fw Juan Manuel Castro
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 58% | Random number = 13 (Sw stopped attack) 
18: Attack for Fw Santiago Romero
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 58% | Random number = 87 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 72 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 73.75% | Random number = 4.88 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
19: Attack for Fw Afonso Ribeiro
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 58% | Random number = 61 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 51 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 73.75% | Random number = 59.66 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
20: Attack for Fw Afonso Ribeiro
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 58% | Random number = 11 (Sw stopped attack) 
21: Attack for Fw Afonso Ribeiro
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 58% | Random number = 75 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 38 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 73.75% | Random number = 95.39 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 
22: Attack for Fw Afonso Ribeiro
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 58% | Random number = 42 (Sw stopped attack) 
23: Attack for Fw Luca Schmid
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 58% | Random number = 89 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 26 (Shot Off Target) 
24: Attack for Fw Santiago Romero
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 58% | Random number = 62 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 87 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 73.75% | Random number = 15.0 (Shot Saved by Gk) 

*******  CARLISLE UNITED ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
  AREA TOTALS             GK  Sw  Df  Mf  Fw
  -------------------------------------------
  Carlisle United          15  14  34  24  45
  Tranmere Rovers          16  18  36  26  57

Carlisle United Fw Attacks = 9 (45 - 36); result rounded up
Carlisle United Mf Attacks = 0 ((24 - 26) / 2;  rounded up)
Carlisle United Df Attacks = 0 ((34 - 57) / 3;  rounded up)
Carlisle United Total Attacks = 9

1: Attack for Fw Kyle Bruce
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 66% | Random number = 31 (Sw stopped attack) 
2: Attack for Fw Lewis Young
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 66% | Random number = 43 (Sw stopped attack) 
3: Attack for Fw Lewis Young
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 66% | Random number = 27 (Sw stopped attack) 
4: Attack for Fw Leon Stevens
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 66% | Random number = 97 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 83 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 76.0% | Random number = 80.67 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 
5: Attack for Fw Leon Stevens
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 66% | Random number = 21 (Sw stopped attack) 
6: Attack for Fw Nigel Nicholson
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 66% | Random number = 92 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 91 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 76.0% | Random number = 97.83 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 
7: Attack for Fw Kyle Bruce
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 66% | Random number = 100 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 90 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 76.0% | Random number = 30.84 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
8: Attack for Fw Kyle Bruce
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 66% | Random number = 87 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 90 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 76.0% | Random number = 52.2 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
9: Attack for Fw Kyle Bruce
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 66% | Random number = 54 (Sw stopped attack) 
===============================================
     F  I  N  A  L         S  C  O  R  E
TRANMERE ROVERS 1  -  CARLISLE UNITED 2
 
Match Notes
First of two away games in the League this session - I don't like these weeks.
Dave (Carlisle United) 08/25 - 3:07 PM
Heroic goalkeeping performance. The sort of (stuffy) win we need if we're to achieve anything this season.
Dave (Carlisle United) 08/26 - 12:11 AM
 
 
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