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Carlisle United
Dave Gittins
 
Preston North End FC
Ian Lindsay
 
 
League Round 4
 
 
 
 

S  T  A  R  T  I  N  G      L  I  N  E  U  P  S

CARLISLE UNITED                            PRESTON NORTH END FC

Ps Player Name            SL  FIT  LVL     Ps Player Name            SL  FIT  LVL
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gk Billy Rooney           12    1   13     Gk Rhys MacDonald         13    2   15
Sw Keith Dohm             13    0   13     Sw Sean Moore             16    2   18
Df Angelo Tosato          13    0   13     Df Hugo George            10    2   12
Df Samuel Bogaerts        11    1   12     Df Shay  Walton           10    1   11
Df Reece Hutchinson        6    2    8     Df Carleton Milner         6    2    8
Mf Freddie Dury           12    0   12     Mf Ben Terry              10    1   11
Mf Finn Brown             11    2   13     Mf Jayden Campbell         6    2    8
Fw Leon Stevens           16    1   17     Fw Ellis McAllister       13    2   15
Fw Nigel Nicholson        11    2   13     Fw Titouan Bianchi        10    2   12
Fw Tobias Mayer           10    0   10     Fw Douglass Bryant        10    2   12
Fw Kyle Bruce              6    2    8     Fw Jared Brown             6    2    8

      Gk Sw Df Mf Fw   A R E A  T O T A L S    Gk Sw Df Mf Fw
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
      13 13 33 25 48        ROSTER TOTALS      15 18 31 19 47    
       0  0  0  2  0          HARDNESS          0  0  0  0  0    
       0  0  0  0  9       HOME ADVANTAGE       0  0  0  0  0    
       0  0  0  0  0  GREAT PERFORMANCE POINTS  0  0  0  0  0    
       0  0  0  0  0        PLAY FOR DRAW       0  0  0  0  0    
=======================================================================
      13 13 33 27 57         T O T A L S       15 18 31 19 47    

============================================================================
============================================================================
B  O  O  K  I  N  G  S

Each player is next given a chance for a yellow/red card.  The first
number listed is the chance for the player to get the yellow/red
card while the second number shows the random number drawn.  If the 
random number is less than or equal to the player's yellow/red card 
chance then the player is sent off.  Note that the chances are as follows:
	- Booking: 1.5 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness))
	- Red Card: 0.25 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness)))

If a player is booked we immediately draw a second number to check
for a 'second yellow' (red card chance) resulting in a sending off.
If a player is not booked we draw a red card chance to see if the player
was given a straight red card.  Note that the aforementioned formula
differs for a Gk where the formula uses the hardness points added to
your Gk area and NOT the team hardness points.

*******  CARLISLE UNITED YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
   - Team Hardness = 2
   - Gk   Hardness = 0

Gk Billy Rooney: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 65.95 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 18.21 (no red card)

Sw Keith Dohm: Chance of booking = 9.0% | Random number = 65.34 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.5% | Random number = 19.69 (no red card)

Df Angelo Tosato: Chance of booking = 9.0% | Random number = 78.72 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.5% | Random number = 68.7 (no red card)

Df Samuel Bogaerts: Chance of booking = 9.0% | Random number = 31.43 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.5% | Random number = 43.4 (no red card)

Df Reece Hutchinson: Chance of booking = 9.0% | Random number = 33.87 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.5% | Random number = 6.98 (no red card)

Mf Freddie Dury: Chance of booking = 9.0% | Random number = 6.05 (BOOKED!) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.5% | Random number = 69.78 (no second yellow)

Mf Finn Brown: Chance of booking = 9.0% | Random number = 25.26 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.5% | Random number = 11.91 (no red card)

Fw Leon Stevens: Chance of booking = 9.0% | Random number = 85.57 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.5% | Random number = 61.77 (no red card)

Fw Nigel Nicholson: Chance of booking = 9.0% | Random number = 22.07 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.5% | Random number = 88.26 (no red card)

Fw Tobias Mayer: Chance of booking = 9.0% | Random number = 56.39 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.5% | Random number = 87.07 (no red card)

Fw Kyle Bruce: Chance of booking = 9.0% | Random number = 65.93 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.5% | Random number = 85.38 (no red card)

*******  PRESTON NORTH END FC YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
   - Team Hardness = 0
   - Gk   Hardness = 0

Gk Rhys MacDonald: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 7.03 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 14.02 (no red card)

Sw Sean Moore: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 46.43 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 83.85 (no red card)

Df Hugo George: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 18.65 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 74.47 (no red card)

Df Shay  Walton: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 76.39 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 97.04 (no red card)

Df Carleton Milner: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 23.24 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 31.7 (no red card)

Mf Ben Terry: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 98.7 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 70.86 (no red card)

Mf Jayden Campbell: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 76.45 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 55.52 (no red card)

Fw Ellis McAllister: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 36.78 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 80.85 (no red card)

Fw Titouan Bianchi: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 24.68 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 48.67 (no red card)

Fw Douglass Bryant: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 3.41 (BOOKED!) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 3.78 (no second yellow)

Fw Jared Brown: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 94.99 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 22.6 (no red card)
============================================================================
============================================================================
I  N  J  U  R  I  E  S

A major consequence of hardness is that your opponents get injured. 
For each player the chance of injury is:   
  ((your teamís hardness * .25) + (opponentís hardness * .75) + 2.5)%.
    For example if your team has a hardness of 8 and the opposition has a hardness of 4,
    the chance of injury for each player would be: 2 + 3 + 2.5 or 7.5%.

The chance is halved for the opposition Gk. A player plays at half 
his normal level (skill plus fitness) in the match in which he is injured.

Injured players lose fitness as a result, the amount of fitness lost being
shown on the game report in brackets. There is a 30% chance of no fitness loss,
15% chance of 1 level fitness lost, 15% of 2 levels, and a 10% chance
of each of 3,4,5, or 6 fitness levels being lost. 
This fitness loss (if any) takes place at the end of the session, for 
reasons of simplicity. Should a player be injured twice or
more in a session, only the most severe injury will apply.


*******  CARLISLE UNITED CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
   - Carlisle United Team Hardness = 2
   - Preston North End FC Team Hardness = 0
   - All (except Gk) chance of injury = 3.0%
   - Gk chance of injury = 1.5%
Gk Billy Rooney: Chance of injury = 1.5% | Random number = 53.27 (no injury) 
Sw Keith Dohm: Chance of injury = 3.0% | Random number = 14.83 (no injury) 
Df Angelo Tosato: Chance of injury = 3.0% | Random number = 52.2 (no injury) 
Df Samuel Bogaerts: Chance of injury = 3.0% | Random number = 23.85 (no injury) 
Df Reece Hutchinson: Chance of injury = 3.0% | Random number = 17.49 (no injury) 
Mf Freddie Dury: Chance of injury = 3.0% | Random number = 42.78 (no injury) 
Mf Finn Brown: Chance of injury = 3.0% | Random number = 65.16 (no injury) 
Fw Leon Stevens: Chance of injury = 3.0% | Random number = 86.68 (no injury) 
Fw Nigel Nicholson: Chance of injury = 3.0% | Random number = 11.95 (no injury) 
Fw Tobias Mayer: Chance of injury = 3.0% | Random number = 11.08 (no injury) 
Fw Kyle Bruce: Chance of injury = 3.0% | Random number = 2.29 (INJURED!) 
      Targeted fitness lost = 4
      Kyle Bruce is being assisted by the Physio. He will lose 3 fitness points (deducted at end of session)
      Kyle Bruce new match skill level =  3
      Kyle Bruce new match total level =  5

*******  PRESTON NORTH END FC CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
   - Preston North End FC Team Hardness = 0
   - Carlisle United Team Hardness = 2
   - All (except Gk) chance of injury = 4.0%
   - Gk chance of injury = 2.0%
Gk Rhys MacDonald: Chance of injury = 2.0% | Random number = 31.37 (no injury) 
Sw Sean Moore: Chance of injury = 4.0% | Random number = 74.87 (no injury) 
Df Hugo George: Chance of injury = 4.0% | Random number = 63.63 (no injury) 
Df Shay  Walton: Chance of injury = 4.0% | Random number = 49.23 (no injury) 
Df Carleton Milner: Chance of injury = 4.0% | Random number = 60.25 (no injury) 
Mf Ben Terry: Chance of injury = 4.0% | Random number = 28.07 (no injury) 
Mf Jayden Campbell: Chance of injury = 4.0% | Random number = 28.8 (no injury) 
Fw Ellis McAllister: Chance of injury = 4.0% | Random number = 30.17 (no injury) 
Fw Titouan Bianchi: Chance of injury = 4.0% | Random number = 22.03 (no injury) 
Fw Douglass Bryant: Chance of injury = 4.0% | Random number = 86.43 (no injury) 
Fw Jared Brown: Chance of injury = 4.0% | Random number = 16.71 (no injury) 
============================================================================
============================================================================
P  E  N  A  L  T  Y     K  I  C  K  S

There is a 10% chance of conceding a penalty for every hardness point used.
Each 10% chance is separate, so a team could concede as many penalties as it plays
hardness points. If no hardness is used, there is still a 5% penalty chance. 
The chance of a penalty being scored is: 
  50 + (4 x penalty takers skill) - (2 x Gk skill)  %    (to a maximum 95%)

*******  PRESTON NORTH END FC CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
   - Team Hardness: 0; (1 5% chance of yielding a PK)
   - PK Taker: Leon Stevens SL 16
   - Defending Gk: Rhys MacDonald SL 13

     intRndPk = 45
1: Chance of PK occurring = 5% | Random number = 45 (no penalty kick)

*******  CARLISLE UNITED CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
   - Team Hardness: 2; (2 10% chances of yielding PKs)
   - PK Taker: Ellis McAllister SL 13
   - Defending Gk: Billy Rooney SL 12

1: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 26 (no penalty kick)
2: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 31 (no penalty kick)
============================================================================
============================================================================
A  T  T  A  C  K  I  N  G      C  H  A  N  C  E  S      &      S  H  O  T  S

  (i)   If team A's Fw area total is greater than team B's Df area total, 
        then A earns a number of attacks equal to the difference.
        Note: A Sw  does NOT add his levels to the Df in this league! 

  (ii)  The team with the highest Mf area total gets attacks equal to half
        the difference.

  (iii) If team A's Df area total is greater than team B's Fw total, then  
        team A earns a number of attacks equal to one fifth of the difference.
        If team A is playing a sweeper behind the defence, this rises to one 
        third of the difference.  All fractions of attacks are rounded up, 
        and then each of the attacks is treated as follows to see how many 
        produce shots, then goals: 

  (iv)  Attacks have first to beat the Sw (if playing!).  For each attack,
        there is a percentage chance of it being stopped equal to:
              30 + (Sw level x 2) % 
        (eg a level 10 Sw stops 30+10x2=50% of attacks.) Attacks passing the 
        Sw become shots.

  (v)   Each shot has a 35% chance of being off-target. If a side has scored
        2 goals this rises to 40%, then by a further 5% after each goal scored,
        to a maximum of 75%. This is to curb ridiculous scorelines (with luck!)

  (vi)  Finally, on-target shots come up against the  Gk. This is similar to 
        the Sw test, but the percentage is:
        40 + (Gk level x 2.25) % 

  Notes: If the defense is playing offside trap then the offensive team has
         their Fw attacks cut in half and theor Mf attacks doubled.

         A team choosing to PFD has 7 extra levels to split between Sw, 
         Df and Mf areas, but their attacks for each area will be halved 
         (round up fractions).

*******  CARLISLE UNITED ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
  AREA TOTALS             GK  Sw  Df  Mf  Fw
  -------------------------------------------
  Carlisle United          13  13  33  27  54
  Preston North End FC     15  18  31  19  47

Carlisle United Fw Attacks = 23 (54 - 31); result rounded up
Carlisle United Mf Attacks = 4 ((27 - 19) / 2) ; result rounded up
Carlisle United Df Attacks = 0 ((33 - 47) / 3;  rounded up)
Carlisle United Total Attacks = 27

1: Attack for Mf Freddie Dury
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 66% | Random number = 38 (Sw stopped attack) 
2: Attack for Mf Finn Brown
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 66% | Random number = 50 (Sw stopped attack) 
3: Attack for Mf Finn Brown
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 66% | Random number = 38 (Sw stopped attack) 
4: Attack for Mf Freddie Dury
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 66% | Random number = 27 (Sw stopped attack) 
5: Attack for Fw Leon Stevens
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 66% | Random number = 40 (Sw stopped attack) 
6: Attack for Fw Tobias Mayer
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 66% | Random number = 58 (Sw stopped attack) 
7: Attack for Fw Leon Stevens
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 66% | Random number = 82 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 79 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 73.75% | Random number = 55.45 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
8: Attack for Fw Leon Stevens
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 66% | Random number = 67 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 59 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 73.75% | Random number = 98.11 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 
9: Attack for Fw Kyle Bruce
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 66% | Random number = 24 (Sw stopped attack) 
10: Attack for Fw Nigel Nicholson
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 66% | Random number = 68 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 92 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 73.75% | Random number = 22.79 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
11: Attack for Fw Kyle Bruce
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 66% | Random number = 11 (Sw stopped attack) 
12: Attack for Fw Nigel Nicholson
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 66% | Random number = 41 (Sw stopped attack) 
13: Attack for Fw Leon Stevens
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 66% | Random number = 58 (Sw stopped attack) 
14: Attack for Fw Nigel Nicholson
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 66% | Random number = 75 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 3 (Shot Off Target) 
15: Attack for Fw Tobias Mayer
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 66% | Random number = 80 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 59 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 73.75% | Random number = 54.62 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
16: Attack for Fw Tobias Mayer
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 66% | Random number = 91 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 79 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 73.75% | Random number = 27.06 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
17: Attack for Fw Nigel Nicholson
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 66% | Random number = 26 (Sw stopped attack) 
18: Attack for Fw Nigel Nicholson
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 66% | Random number = 93 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 74 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 73.75% | Random number = 9.28 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
19: Attack for Fw Leon Stevens
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 66% | Random number = 54 (Sw stopped attack) 
20: Attack for Fw Nigel Nicholson
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 66% | Random number = 25 (Sw stopped attack) 
21: Attack for Fw Kyle Bruce
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 66% | Random number = 91 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 78 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 73.75% | Random number = 76.88 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 
22: Attack for Fw Nigel Nicholson
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 66% | Random number = 50 (Sw stopped attack) 
23: Attack for Fw Leon Stevens
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 66% | Random number = 40 (Sw stopped attack) 
24: Attack for Fw Tobias Mayer
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 66% | Random number = 46 (Sw stopped attack) 
25: Attack for Fw Kyle Bruce
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 66% | Random number = 22 (Sw stopped attack) 
26: Attack for Fw Leon Stevens
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 66% | Random number = 98 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 50 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 73.75% | Random number = 74.3 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 
27: Attack for Fw Nigel Nicholson
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 66% | Random number = 11 (Sw stopped attack) 

*******  PRESTON NORTH END FC ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
  AREA TOTALS             GK  Sw  Df  Mf  Fw
  -------------------------------------------
  Preston North End FC     15  18  31  19  47
  Carlisle United          13  13  33  27  54

Preston North End FC Fw Attacks = 14 (47 - 33); result rounded up
Preston North End FC Mf Attacks = 0 ((19 - 27) / 2;  rounded up)
Preston North End FC Df Attacks = 0 ((31 - 54) / 3;  rounded up)
Preston North End FC Total Attacks = 14

1: Attack for Fw Jared Brown
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 100 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 42 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 69.25% | Random number = 27.56 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
2: Attack for Fw Titouan Bianchi
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 92 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 90 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 69.25% | Random number = 93.4 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 
3: Attack for Fw Jared Brown
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 71 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 72 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 69.25% | Random number = 91.86 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 
4: Attack for Fw Ellis McAllister
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 64 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 17 (Shot Off Target) 
5: Attack for Fw Douglass Bryant
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 43 (Sw stopped attack) 
6: Attack for Fw Jared Brown
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 99 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 33 (Shot Off Target) 
7: Attack for Fw Ellis McAllister
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 92 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 10 (Shot Off Target) 
8: Attack for Fw Douglass Bryant
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 68 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 11 (Shot Off Target) 
9: Attack for Fw Douglass Bryant
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 14 (Sw stopped attack) 
10: Attack for Fw Ellis McAllister
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 34 (Sw stopped attack) 
11: Attack for Fw Titouan Bianchi
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 85 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 47 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 69.25% | Random number = 68.55 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
12: Attack for Fw Jared Brown
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 72 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 63 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 69.25% | Random number = 52.32 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
13: Attack for Fw Douglass Bryant
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 59 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 10 (Shot Off Target) 
14: Attack for Fw Jared Brown
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 18 (Sw stopped attack) 
===============================================
     F  I  N  A  L         S  C  O  R  E
CARLISLE UNITED 3  -  PRESTON NORTH END FC 2
 
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