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Nottingham Forest
Steve Turner
 
Carlisle United
Dave Gittins
 
 
League Round 1
 
 
 
 

S  T  A  R  T  I  N  G      L  I  N  E  U  P  S

NOTTINGHAM FOREST                          CARLISLE UNITED

Ps Player Name            SL  FIT  LVL     Ps Player Name            SL  FIT  LVL
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gk Alvin Jonasson         14    1   15     Gk Billy Rooney           11    0   11
Sw Joseph Smalls          14    1   15     Sw Keith Dohm             13    0   13
Df Martin Giles           11    0   11     Df Angelo Tosato          13    0   13
Df Xavier Muñoz            9    0    9     Df Samuel Bogaerts        11    0   11
Df Stewart Lester          5    2    7     Df Gabriel Johnson        10    0   10
Mf Nigel Ruddle           10    0   10     Df Reece Hutchinson        5    2    7
Mf Alan Ramirez           10    0   10     Mf Freddie Dury           12    0   12
Fw Paul Drinkwater        13    1   14     Mf Finn Brown             10    1   11
Fw Owen Fitzgerald        17    0   17     Mf Lewis Young             5    2    7
Fw Luis  Herrera          10    0   10     Fw Leon Stevens           15    0   15
Fw Allan Hayes             8    0    8     Fw Kyle Bruce              5    2    7

      Gk Sw Df Mf Fw   A R E A  T O T A L S    Gk Sw Df Mf Fw
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
      15 15 27 20 49        ROSTER TOTALS      11 13 41 30 22    
       0  0  0  0  0          HARDNESS          0  0  0  0  0    
       0  0  0  0  9       HOME ADVANTAGE       0  0  0  0  0    
       0  0  0  0  0  GREAT PERFORMANCE POINTS  0  0  0  0  0    
       0  0  0  0  0        PLAY FOR DRAW       0  0  7  0  0    
=======================================================================
      15 15 27 20 58         T O T A L S       11 13 48 30 22    

============================================================================
============================================================================
B  O  O  K  I  N  G  S

Each player is next given a chance for a yellow/red card.  The first
number listed is the chance for the player to get the yellow/red
card while the second number shows the random number drawn.  If the 
random number is less than or equal to the player's yellow/red card 
chance then the player is sent off.  Note that the chances are as follows:
	- Booking: 1.5 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness))
	- Red Card: 0.25 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness)))

If a player is booked we immediately draw a second number to check
for a 'second yellow' (red card chance) resulting in a sending off.
If a player is not booked we draw a red card chance to see if the player
was given a straight red card.  Note that the aforementioned formula
differs for a Gk where the formula uses the hardness points added to
your Gk area and NOT the team hardness points.

*******  NOTTINGHAM FOREST YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
   - Team Hardness = 0
   - Gk   Hardness = 0

Gk Alvin Jonasson: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 21.76 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 65.54 (no red card)

Sw Joseph Smalls: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 5.61 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 6.38 (no red card)

Df Martin Giles: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 97.71 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 83.8 (no red card)

Df Xavier Muñoz: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 33.89 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 22.08 (no red card)

Df Stewart Lester: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 17.67 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 12.48 (no red card)

Mf Nigel Ruddle: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 22.05 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 0.49 (STRAIGHT RED CARD! SENT OFF!!!)
      Nigel Ruddle new match skill level =  5
      Nigel Ruddle new match total level =  5

Mf Alan Ramirez: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 18.86 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 34.44 (no red card)

Fw Paul Drinkwater: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 18.2 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 70.97 (no red card)

Fw Owen Fitzgerald: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 30.49 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 78.87 (no red card)

Fw Luis  Herrera: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 22.1 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 95.95 (no red card)

Fw Allan Hayes: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 52.61 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 25.93 (no red card)

*******  CARLISLE UNITED YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
   - Team Hardness = 0
   - Gk   Hardness = 0

Gk Billy Rooney: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 74.3 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 7.11 (no red card)

Sw Keith Dohm: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 80.02 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 36.53 (no red card)

Df Angelo Tosato: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 61.88 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 24.79 (no red card)

Df Samuel Bogaerts: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 97.08 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 1.8 (no red card)

Df Gabriel Johnson: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 68.98 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 21.03 (no red card)

Df Reece Hutchinson: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 32.56 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 88.03 (no red card)

Mf Freddie Dury: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 55.87 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 73.34 (no red card)

Mf Finn Brown: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 59.25 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 67.64 (no red card)

Mf Lewis Young: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 64.07 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 22.33 (no red card)

Fw Leon Stevens: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 3.96 (BOOKED!) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 62.02 (no second yellow)

Fw Kyle Bruce: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 92.39 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 23.1 (no red card)
============================================================================
============================================================================
I  N  J  U  R  I  E  S

A major consequence of hardness is that your opponents get injured. 
For each player the chance of injury is:   
  ((your team’s hardness * .25) + (opponent’s hardness * .75) + 2.5)%.
    For example if your team has a hardness of 8 and the opposition has a hardness of 4,
    the chance of injury for each player would be: 2 + 3 + 2.5 or 7.5%.

The chance is halved for the opposition Gk. A player plays at half 
his normal level (skill plus fitness) in the match in which he is injured.

Injured players lose fitness as a result, the amount of fitness lost being
shown on the game report in brackets. There is a 30% chance of no fitness loss,
15% chance of 1 level fitness lost, 15% of 2 levels, and a 10% chance
of each of 3,4,5, or 6 fitness levels being lost. 
This fitness loss (if any) takes place at the end of the session, for 
reasons of simplicity. Should a player be injured twice or
more in a session, only the most severe injury will apply.


*******  NOTTINGHAM FOREST CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
   - Nottingham Forest Team Hardness = 0
   - Carlisle United Team Hardness = 0
   - All (except Gk) chance of injury = 2.5%
   - Gk chance of injury = 1.25%
Gk Alvin Jonasson: Chance of injury = 1.25% | Random number = 94.85 (no injury) 
Sw Joseph Smalls: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 32.48 (no injury) 
Df Martin Giles: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 90.15 (no injury) 
Df Xavier Muñoz: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 52.84 (no injury) 
Df Stewart Lester: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 97.0 (no injury) 
Mf Nigel Ruddle: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 59.11 (no injury) 
Mf Alan Ramirez: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 59.67 (no injury) 
Fw Paul Drinkwater: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 31.64 (no injury) 
Fw Owen Fitzgerald: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 97.47 (no injury) 
Fw Luis  Herrera: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 14.85 (no injury) 
Fw Allan Hayes: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 63.85 (no injury) 

*******  CARLISLE UNITED CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
   - Carlisle United Team Hardness = 0
   - Nottingham Forest Team Hardness = 0
   - All (except Gk) chance of injury = 2.5%
   - Gk chance of injury = 1.25%
Gk Billy Rooney: Chance of injury = 1.25% | Random number = 16.55 (no injury) 
Sw Keith Dohm: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 33.57 (no injury) 
Df Angelo Tosato: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 72.61 (no injury) 
Df Samuel Bogaerts: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 96.7 (no injury) 
Df Gabriel Johnson: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 16.1 (no injury) 
Df Reece Hutchinson: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 39.68 (no injury) 
Mf Freddie Dury: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 73.9 (no injury) 
Mf Finn Brown: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 7.52 (no injury) 
Mf Lewis Young: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 56.9 (no injury) 
Fw Leon Stevens: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 39.55 (no injury) 
Fw Kyle Bruce: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 67.51 (no injury) 
============================================================================
============================================================================
P  E  N  A  L  T  Y     K  I  C  K  S

There is a 10% chance of conceding a penalty for every hardness point used.
Each 10% chance is separate, so a team could concede as many penalties as it plays
hardness points. If no hardness is used, there is still a 5% penalty chance. 
The chance of a penalty being scored is: 
  50 + (4 x penalty takers skill) - (2 x Gk skill)  %    (to a maximum 95%)

*******  CARLISLE UNITED CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
   - Team Hardness: 0; (1 5% chance of yielding a PK)
   - PK Taker: Owen Fitzgerald SL 17
   - Defending Gk: Billy Rooney SL 11

     intRndPk = 19
1: Chance of PK occurring = 5% | Random number = 19 (no penalty kick)

*******  NOTTINGHAM FOREST CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
   - Team Hardness: 0; (1 5% chance of yielding a PK)
   - PK Taker: Leon Stevens SL 15
   - Defending Gk: Alvin Jonasson SL 14

     intRndPk = 17
1: Chance of PK occurring = 5% | Random number = 17 (no penalty kick)
============================================================================
============================================================================
A  T  T  A  C  K  I  N  G      C  H  A  N  C  E  S      &      S  H  O  T  S

  (i)   If team A's Fw area total is greater than team B's Df area total, 
        then A earns a number of attacks equal to the difference.
        Note: A Sw  does NOT add his levels to the Df in this league! 

  (ii)  The team with the highest Mf area total gets attacks equal to half
        the difference.

  (iii) If team A's Df area total is greater than team B's Fw total, then  
        team A earns a number of attacks equal to one fifth of the difference.
        If team A is playing a sweeper behind the defence, this rises to one 
        third of the difference.  All fractions of attacks are rounded up, 
        and then each of the attacks is treated as follows to see how many 
        produce shots, then goals: 

  (iv)  Attacks have first to beat the Sw (if playing!).  For each attack,
        there is a percentage chance of it being stopped equal to:
              30 + (Sw level x 2) % 
        (eg a level 10 Sw stops 30+10x2=50% of attacks.) Attacks passing the 
        Sw become shots.

  (v)   Each shot has a 35% chance of being off-target. If a side has scored
        2 goals this rises to 40%, then by a further 5% after each goal scored,
        to a maximum of 75%. This is to curb ridiculous scorelines (with luck!)

  (vi)  Finally, on-target shots come up against the  Gk. This is similar to 
        the Sw test, but the percentage is:
        40 + (Gk level x 2.25) % 

  Notes: If the defense is playing offside trap then the offensive team has
         their Fw attacks cut in half and theor Mf attacks doubled.

         A team choosing to PFD has 7 extra levels to split between Sw, 
         Df and Mf areas, but their attacks for each area will be halved 
         (round up fractions).

*******  NOTTINGHAM FOREST ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
  AREA TOTALS             GK  Sw  Df  Mf  Fw
  -------------------------------------------
  Nottingham Forest        15  15  27  15  58
  Carlisle United          11  13  48  30  22

Nottingham Forest Fw Attacks = 10 (58 - 48); result rounded up
Nottingham Forest Mf Attacks = 0 ((15 - 30) / 2;  rounded up)
Nottingham Forest Df Attacks = 2 ((27 - 22) / 3); result rounded up
Nottingham Forest Total Attacks = 12

1: Attack for Df Martin Giles
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 53 (Sw stopped attack) 
2: Attack for Df Martin Giles
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 60 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 61 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 64.75% | Random number = 26.98 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
3: Attack for Fw Luis  Herrera
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 96 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 58 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 64.75% | Random number = 14.83 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
4: Attack for Fw Paul Drinkwater
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 34 (Sw stopped attack) 
5: Attack for Fw Owen Fitzgerald
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 14 (Sw stopped attack) 
6: Attack for Fw Owen Fitzgerald
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 74 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 91 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 64.75% | Random number = 30.83 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
7: Attack for Fw Allan Hayes
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 33 (Sw stopped attack) 
8: Attack for Fw Owen Fitzgerald
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 81 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 19 (Shot Off Target) 
9: Attack for Fw Owen Fitzgerald
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 72 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 99 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 64.75% | Random number = 96.83 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 
10: Attack for Fw Luis  Herrera
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 59 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 20 (Shot Off Target) 
11: Attack for Fw Owen Fitzgerald
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 57 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 37 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 64.75% | Random number = 73.9 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 
12: Attack for Fw Allan Hayes
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 13 (Sw stopped attack) 

*******  CARLISLE UNITED ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
  AREA TOTALS             GK  Sw  Df  Mf  Fw
  -------------------------------------------
  Carlisle United          11  13  48  30  22
  Nottingham Forest        15  15  27  15  58

Carlisle United is Playing For A Draw!
Carlisle United Fw Attacks = 0 (22 - 27)
Carlisle United Mf Attacks = 4 ((30 - 15) / 2)  * 0.5 (Play For Draw Multiplier); result rounded up
Carlisle United Df Attacks = 0 ((48 - 58) / 3;  rounded up)
Carlisle United Total Attacks = 4

1: Attack for Mf Freddie Dury
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 84 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 37 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 73.75% | Random number = 96.42 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 
2: Attack for Mf Finn Brown
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 64 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 45 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 73.75% | Random number = 2.55 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
3: Attack for Mf Finn Brown
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 74 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 96 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 73.75% | Random number = 22.13 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
4: Attack for Mf Freddie Dury
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 6 (Sw stopped attack) 
===============================================
     F  I  N  A  L         S  C  O  R  E
NOTTINGHAM FOREST 2  -  CARLISLE UNITED 1
 
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