(H)
Nottingham Forest
Steve Turner
Southend United
Colin Scott
League Round 14
S T A R T I N G L I N E U P S
NOTTINGHAM FOREST SOUTHEND UNITED
Ps Player Name SL FIT LVL Ps Player Name SL FIT LVL
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Gk Charlie Cockayne 15 2 17 Gk Alonso Lopez 15 2 17
Sw Édouard Gning 14 2 16 Sw Glen Clarke 16 2 18
Df Laurence Clarke 15 2 17 Df Kenzie Fraser 13 2 15
Df Pathé Sané 14 2 16 Df Archie Rowe 13 2 15
Mf Freddie Cockham 13 2 15 Df Vincent Hamidou 8 2 10
Mf Derek Holmes 10 2 12 Mf Claes Östberg 14 2 16
Fw Kian Clarke 16 2 18 Mf Troy Juric 12 2 14
Fw Josh Watson 13 2 15 Fw Cássio Lemos 14 2 16
Fw Ilija Caleta-Car 13 2 15 Fw Kenzie McDonald 13 2 15
Fw Jon Dahl Lund 11 2 13 Fw Roman Radomski 8 2 10
Fw Paul Dumont 9 2 11 Fw Rónald Aguilera 8 2 10
Gk Sw Df Mf Fw A R E A T O T A L S Gk Sw Df Mf Fw
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17 16 33 27 72 ROSTER TOTALS 17 18 40 30 51
0 0 0 0 0 HARDNESS 1 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 9 HOME ADVANTAGE 0 0 0 0 0
3 3 0 0 0 GREAT PERFORMANCE POINTS 2 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 PLAY FOR DRAW 0 0 0 0 0
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20 19 33 27 81 T O T A L S 20 18 40 30 51
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B O O K I N G S
Each player is next given a chance for a yellow/red card. The first
number listed is the chance for the player to get the yellow/red
card while the second number shows the random number drawn. If the
random number is less than or equal to the player's yellow/red card
chance then the player is sent off. Note that the chances are as follows:
- Booking: 1.5 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness))
- Red Card: 0.25 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness)))
If a player is booked we immediately draw a second number to check
for a 'second yellow' (red card chance) resulting in a sending off.
If a player is not booked we draw a red card chance to see if the player
was given a straight red card. Note that the aforementioned formula
differs for a Gk where the formula uses the hardness points added to
your Gk area and NOT the team hardness points.
******* NOTTINGHAM FOREST YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
- Team Hardness = 0
- Gk Hardness = 0
Gk Charlie Cockayne: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 97.04 (no booking)
Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 19.7 (no red card)
Sw Édouard Gning: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 10.98 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 18.9 (no red card)
Df Laurence Clarke: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 44.02 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 66.91 (no red card)
Df Pathé Sané: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 38.05 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 72.24 (no red card)
Mf Freddie Cockham: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 97.17 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 4.63 (no red card)
Mf Derek Holmes: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 94.24 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 9.97 (no red card)
Fw Kian Clarke: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 32.94 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 72.29 (no red card)
Fw Josh Watson: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 22.09 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 45.38 (no red card)
Fw Ilija Caleta-Car: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 3.98 (BOOKED!)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 93.03 (no second yellow)
Fw Jon Dahl Lund: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 19.16 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 12.49 (no red card)
Fw Paul Dumont: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 81.83 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 0.79 (no red card)
******* SOUTHEND UNITED YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
- Team Hardness = 1
- Gk Hardness = 1
Gk Alonso Lopez: Chance of booking = 6.75% | Random number = 43.9 (no booking)
Chance of straight red card = 1.0% | Random number = 39.52 (no red card)
Sw Glen Clarke: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 78.43 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 20.64 (no red card)
Df Kenzie Fraser: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 49.5 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 7.47 (no red card)
Df Archie Rowe: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 3.68 (BOOKED!)
Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 97.11 (no second yellow)
Df Vincent Hamidou: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 53.29 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 85.02 (no red card)
Mf Claes Östberg: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 18.84 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 98.08 (no red card)
Mf Troy Juric: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 43.52 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 33.83 (no red card)
Fw Cássio Lemos: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 68.73 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 57.17 (no red card)
Fw Kenzie McDonald: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 8.79 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 54.02 (no red card)
Fw Roman Radomski: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 2.85 (BOOKED!)
Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 59.05 (no second yellow)
Fw Rónald Aguilera: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 80.68 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 84.62 (no red card)
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I N J U R I E S
A major consequence of hardness is that your opponents get injured.
For each player the chance of injury is:
((your team’s hardness * .25) + (opponent’s hardness * .75) + 2.5)%.
For example if your team has a hardness of 8 and the opposition has a hardness of 4,
the chance of injury for each player would be: 2 + 3 + 2.5 or 7.5%.
The chance is halved for the opposition Gk. A player plays at half
his normal level (skill plus fitness) in the match in which he is injured.
Injured players lose fitness as a result, the amount of fitness lost being
shown on the game report in brackets. There is a 30% chance of no fitness loss,
15% chance of 1 level fitness lost, 15% of 2 levels, and a 10% chance
of each of 3,4,5, or 6 fitness levels being lost.
This fitness loss (if any) takes place at the end of the session, for
reasons of simplicity. Should a player be injured twice or
more in a session, only the most severe injury will apply.
******* NOTTINGHAM FOREST CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
- Nottingham Forest Team Hardness = 0
- Southend United Team Hardness = 1
- All (except Gk) chance of injury = 3.25%
- Gk chance of injury = 1.62%
Gk Charlie Cockayne: Chance of injury = 1.62% | Random number = 9.07 (no injury)
Sw Édouard Gning: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 46.98 (no injury)
Df Laurence Clarke: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 85.31 (no injury)
Df Pathé Sané: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 57.22 (no injury)
Mf Freddie Cockham: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 85.94 (no injury)
Mf Derek Holmes: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 95.73 (no injury)
Fw Kian Clarke: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 63.57 (no injury)
Fw Josh Watson: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 45.92 (no injury)
Fw Ilija Caleta-Car: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 9.29 (no injury)
Fw Jon Dahl Lund: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 2.85 (INJURED!)
Targeted fitness lost = 6
Jon Dahl Lund is being assisted by the Physio. He will lose 5 fitness points (deducted at end of session)
Jon Dahl Lund new match skill level = 6
Jon Dahl Lund new match total level = 8
Fw Paul Dumont: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 56.66 (no injury)
******* SOUTHEND UNITED CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
- Southend United Team Hardness = 1
- Nottingham Forest Team Hardness = 0
- All (except Gk) chance of injury = 2.75%
- Gk chance of injury = 1.37%
Gk Alonso Lopez: Chance of injury = 1.37% | Random number = 24.44 (no injury)
Sw Glen Clarke: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 20.64 (no injury)
Df Kenzie Fraser: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 27.06 (no injury)
Df Archie Rowe: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 65.04 (no injury)
Df Vincent Hamidou: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 17.73 (no injury)
Mf Claes Östberg: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 5.15 (no injury)
Mf Troy Juric: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 50.54 (no injury)
Fw Cássio Lemos: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 15.63 (no injury)
Fw Kenzie McDonald: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 1.43 (INJURED!)
Targeted fitness lost = 2
Kenzie McDonald is being assisted by the Physio. He will lose 1 fitness points (deducted at end of session)
Kenzie McDonald new match skill level = 7
Kenzie McDonald new match total level = 9
Fw Roman Radomski: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 50.45 (no injury)
Fw Rónald Aguilera: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 1.88 (INJURED!)
Targeted fitness lost = 2
Rónald Aguilera is being assisted by the Physio. He will lose 1 fitness points (deducted at end of session)
Rónald Aguilera new match skill level = 4
Rónald Aguilera new match total level = 6
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P E N A L T Y K I C K S
There is a 10% chance of conceding a penalty for every hardness point used.
Each 10% chance is separate, so a team could concede as many penalties as it plays
hardness points. If no hardness is used, there is still a 5% penalty chance.
The chance of a penalty being scored is:
50 + (4 x penalty takers skill) - (2 x Gk skill) % (to a maximum 95%)
******* SOUTHEND UNITED CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
- Team Hardness: 1; (1 10% chance of yielding a PK)
- PK Taker: Kian Clarke SL 16
- Defending Gk: Alonso Lopez SL 15
1: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 66 (no penalty kick)
******* NOTTINGHAM FOREST CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
- Team Hardness: 0; (1 5% chance of yielding a PK)
- PK Taker: Claes Östberg SL 14
- Defending Gk: Charlie Cockayne SL 15
intRndPk = 44
1: Chance of PK occurring = 5% | Random number = 44 (no penalty kick)
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A T T A C K I N G C H A N C E S & S H O T S
(i) If team A's Fw area total is greater than team B's Df area total,
then A earns a number of attacks equal to the difference.
Note: A Sw does NOT add his levels to the Df in this league!
(ii) The team with the highest Mf area total gets attacks equal to half
the difference.
(iii) If team A's Df area total is greater than team B's Fw total, then
team A earns a number of attacks equal to one fifth of the difference.
If team A is playing a sweeper behind the defence, this rises to one
third of the difference. All fractions of attacks are rounded up,
and then each of the attacks is treated as follows to see how many
produce shots, then goals:
(iv) Attacks have first to beat the Sw (if playing!). For each attack,
there is a percentage chance of it being stopped equal to:
30 + (Sw level x 2) %
(eg a level 10 Sw stops 30+10x2=50% of attacks.) Attacks passing the
Sw become shots.
(v) Each shot has a 35% chance of being off-target. If a side has scored
2 goals this rises to 40%, then by a further 5% after each goal scored,
to a maximum of 75%. This is to curb ridiculous scorelines (with luck!)
(vi) Finally, on-target shots come up against the Gk. This is similar to
the Sw test, but the percentage is:
40 + (Gk level x 2.25) %
Notes: If the defense is playing offside trap then the offensive team has
their Fw attacks cut in half and theor Mf attacks doubled.
A team choosing to PFD has 7 extra levels to split between Sw,
Df and Mf areas, but their attacks for each area will be halved
(round up fractions).
******* NOTTINGHAM FOREST ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
AREA TOTALS GK Sw Df Mf Fw
-------------------------------------------
Nottingham Forest 20 19 33 27 76
Southend United 20 18 40 30 41
Nottingham Forest Fw Attacks = 36 (76 - 40); result rounded up
Nottingham Forest Mf Attacks = 0 ((27 - 30) / 2; rounded up)
Nottingham Forest Df Attacks = 0 ((33 - 41) / 3; rounded up)
Nottingham Forest Total Attacks = 36
1: Attack for Fw Ilija Caleta-Car
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 66% | Random number = 92 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 24 (Shot Off Target)
2: Attack for Fw Josh Watson
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 66% | Random number = 30 (Sw stopped attack)
3: Attack for Fw Ilija Caleta-Car
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 66% | Random number = 98 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 18 (Shot Off Target)
4: Attack for Fw Kian Clarke
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 66% | Random number = 59 (Sw stopped attack)
5: Attack for Fw Ilija Caleta-Car
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 66% | Random number = 41 (Sw stopped attack)
6: Attack for Fw Kian Clarke
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 66% | Random number = 64 (Sw stopped attack)
7: Attack for Fw Kian Clarke
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 66% | Random number = 88 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 22 (Shot Off Target)
8: Attack for Fw Kian Clarke
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 66% | Random number = 44 (Sw stopped attack)
9: Attack for Fw Kian Clarke
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 66% | Random number = 70 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 92 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 85.0% | Random number = 75.81 (Shot Saved by Gk)
10: Attack for Fw Kian Clarke
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 66% | Random number = 48 (Sw stopped attack)
11: Attack for Fw Kian Clarke
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 66% | Random number = 69 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 12 (Shot Off Target)
12: Attack for Fw Ilija Caleta-Car
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 66% | Random number = 85 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 11 (Shot Off Target)
13: Attack for Fw Ilija Caleta-Car
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 66% | Random number = 26 (Sw stopped attack)
14: Attack for Fw Jon Dahl Lund
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 66% | Random number = 76 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 36 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 85.0% | Random number = 10.4 (Shot Saved by Gk)
15: Attack for Fw Kian Clarke
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 66% | Random number = 78 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 35 (Shot Off Target)
16: Attack for Fw Ilija Caleta-Car
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 66% | Random number = 94 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 23 (Shot Off Target)
17: Attack for Fw Josh Watson
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 66% | Random number = 83 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 65 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 85.0% | Random number = 90.68 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!)
18: Attack for Fw Kian Clarke
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 66% | Random number = 28 (Sw stopped attack)
19: Attack for Fw Paul Dumont
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 66% | Random number = 55 (Sw stopped attack)
20: Attack for Fw Kian Clarke
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 66% | Random number = 4 (Sw stopped attack)
21: Attack for Fw Kian Clarke
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 66% | Random number = 19 (Sw stopped attack)
22: Attack for Fw Josh Watson
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 66% | Random number = 74 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 82 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 85.0% | Random number = 58.07 (Shot Saved by Gk)
23: Attack for Fw Josh Watson
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 66% | Random number = 61 (Sw stopped attack)
24: Attack for Fw Josh Watson
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 66% | Random number = 25 (Sw stopped attack)
25: Attack for Fw Josh Watson
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 66% | Random number = 97 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 61 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 85.0% | Random number = 15.05 (Shot Saved by Gk)
26: Attack for Fw Ilija Caleta-Car
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 66% | Random number = 73 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 86 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 85.0% | Random number = 30.9 (Shot Saved by Gk)
27: Attack for Fw Kian Clarke
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 66% | Random number = 53 (Sw stopped attack)
28: Attack for Fw Josh Watson
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 66% | Random number = 26 (Sw stopped attack)
29: Attack for Fw Josh Watson
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 66% | Random number = 40 (Sw stopped attack)
30: Attack for Fw Jon Dahl Lund
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 66% | Random number = 32 (Sw stopped attack)
31: Attack for Fw Kian Clarke
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 66% | Random number = 13 (Sw stopped attack)
32: Attack for Fw Kian Clarke
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 66% | Random number = 93 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 5 (Shot Off Target)
33: Attack for Fw Josh Watson
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 66% | Random number = 9 (Sw stopped attack)
34: Attack for Fw Ilija Caleta-Car
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 66% | Random number = 42 (Sw stopped attack)
35: Attack for Fw Ilija Caleta-Car
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 66% | Random number = 97 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 63 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 85.0% | Random number = 39.13 (Shot Saved by Gk)
36: Attack for Fw Jon Dahl Lund
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 66% | Random number = 69 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 26 (Shot Off Target)
******* SOUTHEND UNITED ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
AREA TOTALS GK Sw Df Mf Fw
-------------------------------------------
Southend United 20 18 40 30 41
Nottingham Forest 20 19 33 27 76
Southend United Fw Attacks = 8 (41 - 33); result rounded up
Southend United Mf Attacks = 2 ((30 - 27) / 2) ; result rounded up
Southend United Df Attacks = 0 ((40 - 76) / 3; rounded up)
Southend United Total Attacks = 10
1: Attack for Mf Troy Juric
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 68% | Random number = 67 (Sw stopped attack)
2: Attack for Mf Troy Juric
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 68% | Random number = 100 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 30 (Shot Off Target)
3: Attack for Fw Kenzie McDonald
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 68% | Random number = 62 (Sw stopped attack)
4: Attack for Fw Kenzie McDonald
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 68% | Random number = 40 (Sw stopped attack)
5: Attack for Fw Kenzie McDonald
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 68% | Random number = 6 (Sw stopped attack)
6: Attack for Fw Kenzie McDonald
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 68% | Random number = 81 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 63 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 85.0% | Random number = 88.9 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!)
7: Attack for Fw Rónald Aguilera
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 68% | Random number = 63 (Sw stopped attack)
8: Attack for Fw Cássio Lemos
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 68% | Random number = 41 (Sw stopped attack)
9: Attack for Fw Cássio Lemos
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 68% | Random number = 67 (Sw stopped attack)
10: Attack for Fw Roman Radomski
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 68% | Random number = 99 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 9 (Shot Off Target)
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F I N A L S C O R E
NOTTINGHAM FOREST 1 - SOUTHEND UNITED 1
Match Notes
I didn't swear because my wife is asleep beside me.
Steve (Nottingham Forest) 03/16 - 11:48 PM
As Kylie says - I should be so lucky!
Colin (Southend United) 03/16 - 11:55 PM