(H)
Nottingham Forest
Steve Turner
Preston North End FC
Ian Lindsay
League Round 12
S T A R T I N G L I N E U P S NOTTINGHAM FOREST PRESTON NORTH END FC Ps Player Name SL FIT LVL Ps Player Name SL FIT LVL ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Gk Charlie Cockayne 15 2 17 Gk Smahi Regragui 16 2 18 Sw Édouard Gning 13 2 15 Sw Ilija Livaja 13 2 15 Df Laurence Clarke 14 2 16 Df Oribe Vega 15 2 17 Df Pathé Sané 14 2 16 Df Abdul Otu 8 2 10 Df Harley Mason 10 2 12 Fw Angus McKay 13 2 15 Mf Freddie Cockham 13 2 15 Mf Miguel López 13 2 15 Mf Derek Holmes 10 2 12 Mf Leif Andersen 8 2 10 Mf Johnny Rieder 8 2 10 Fw Owen Bennett 17 2 19 Fw Kian Clarke 16 2 18 Fw Heorhiy Kozak 8 2 10 Fw Josh Watson 13 2 15 Fw Eduardo Luna 8 2 10 Fw Ilija Caleta-Car 13 2 15 Fw Raphaël Mayeux 4 2 6 Gk Sw Df Mf Fw A R E A T O T A L S Gk Sw Df Mf Fw ----------------------------------------------------------------------- 17 15 44 37 48 ROSTER TOTALS 18 15 27 25 60 0 0 0 0 0 HARDNESS 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 HOME ADVANTAGE 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 GREAT PERFORMANCE POINTS 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 PLAY FOR DRAW 0 0 0 0 0 ======================================================================= 17 15 44 37 57 T O T A L S 21 16 27 25 60 ============================================================================ ============================================================================ B O O K I N G S Each player is next given a chance for a yellow/red card. The first number listed is the chance for the player to get the yellow/red card while the second number shows the random number drawn. If the random number is less than or equal to the player's yellow/red card chance then the player is sent off. Note that the chances are as follows: - Booking: 1.5 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness)) - Red Card: 0.25 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness))) If a player is booked we immediately draw a second number to check for a 'second yellow' (red card chance) resulting in a sending off. If a player is not booked we draw a red card chance to see if the player was given a straight red card. Note that the aforementioned formula differs for a Gk where the formula uses the hardness points added to your Gk area and NOT the team hardness points. ******* NOTTINGHAM FOREST YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES ******* - Team Hardness = 0 - Gk Hardness = 0 Gk Charlie Cockayne: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 58.3 (no booking) Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 85.11 (no red card) Sw Édouard Gning: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 28.75 (no booking) Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 58.42 (no red card) Df Laurence Clarke: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 26.25 (no booking) Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 92.5 (no red card) Df Pathé Sané: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 56.76 (no booking) Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 9.59 (no red card) Df Harley Mason: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 92.31 (no booking) Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 32.64 (no red card) Mf Freddie Cockham: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 28.79 (no booking) Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 31.36 (no red card) Mf Derek Holmes: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 71.2 (no booking) Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 28.5 (no red card) Mf Johnny Rieder: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 25.24 (no booking) Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 0.95 (no red card) Fw Kian Clarke: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 79.67 (no booking) Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 4.04 (no red card) Fw Josh Watson: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 94.93 (no booking) Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 22.43 (no red card) Fw Ilija Caleta-Car: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 68.67 (no booking) Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 81.21 (no red card) ******* PRESTON NORTH END FC YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES ******* - Team Hardness = 1 - Gk Hardness = 0 Gk Smahi Regragui: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 97.26 (no booking) Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 83.09 (no red card) Sw Ilija Livaja: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 47.53 (no booking) Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 11.89 (no red card) Df Oribe Vega: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 7.42 (no booking) Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 52.99 (no red card) Df Abdul Otu: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 52.02 (no booking) Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 60.24 (no red card) Fw Angus McKay: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 84.01 (no booking) Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 63.33 (no red card) Mf Miguel López: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 53.41 (no booking) Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 76.11 (no red card) Mf Leif Andersen: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 33.0 (no booking) Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 61.08 (no red card) Fw Owen Bennett: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 80.01 (no booking) Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 61.79 (no red card) Fw Heorhiy Kozak: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 49.41 (no booking) Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 79.38 (no red card) Fw Eduardo Luna: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 81.44 (no booking) Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 45.94 (no red card) Fw Raphaël Mayeux: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 61.08 (no booking) Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 29.57 (no red card) ============================================================================ ============================================================================ I N J U R I E S A major consequence of hardness is that your opponents get injured. For each player the chance of injury is: ((your team’s hardness * .25) + (opponent’s hardness * .75) + 2.5)%. For example if your team has a hardness of 8 and the opposition has a hardness of 4, the chance of injury for each player would be: 2 + 3 + 2.5 or 7.5%. The chance is halved for the opposition Gk. A player plays at half his normal level (skill plus fitness) in the match in which he is injured. Injured players lose fitness as a result, the amount of fitness lost being shown on the game report in brackets. There is a 30% chance of no fitness loss, 15% chance of 1 level fitness lost, 15% of 2 levels, and a 10% chance of each of 3,4,5, or 6 fitness levels being lost. This fitness loss (if any) takes place at the end of the session, for reasons of simplicity. Should a player be injured twice or more in a session, only the most severe injury will apply. ******* NOTTINGHAM FOREST CHANCES FOR INJURY ******* - Nottingham Forest Team Hardness = 0 - Preston North End FC Team Hardness = 1 - All (except Gk) chance of injury = 3.25% - Gk chance of injury = 1.62% Gk Charlie Cockayne: Chance of injury = 1.62% | Random number = 41.88 (no injury) Sw Édouard Gning: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 71.37 (no injury) Df Laurence Clarke: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 13.66 (no injury) Df Pathé Sané: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 42.11 (no injury) Df Harley Mason: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 58.48 (no injury) Mf Freddie Cockham: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 51.3 (no injury) Mf Derek Holmes: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 42.74 (no injury) Mf Johnny Rieder: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 68.75 (no injury) Fw Kian Clarke: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 51.93 (no injury) Fw Josh Watson: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 14.86 (no injury) Fw Ilija Caleta-Car: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 42.9 (no injury) ******* PRESTON NORTH END FC CHANCES FOR INJURY ******* - Preston North End FC Team Hardness = 1 - Nottingham Forest Team Hardness = 0 - All (except Gk) chance of injury = 2.75% - Gk chance of injury = 1.37% Gk Smahi Regragui: Chance of injury = 1.37% | Random number = 70.97 (no injury) Sw Ilija Livaja: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 20.89 (no injury) Df Oribe Vega: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 73.86 (no injury) Df Abdul Otu: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 8.77 (no injury) Fw Angus McKay: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 17.73 (no injury) Mf Miguel López: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 82.19 (no injury) Mf Leif Andersen: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 57.53 (no injury) Fw Owen Bennett: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 53.66 (no injury) Fw Heorhiy Kozak: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 94.66 (no injury) Fw Eduardo Luna: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 92.32 (no injury) Fw Raphaël Mayeux: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 93.26 (no injury) ============================================================================ ============================================================================ P E N A L T Y K I C K S There is a 10% chance of conceding a penalty for every hardness point used. Each 10% chance is separate, so a team could concede as many penalties as it plays hardness points. If no hardness is used, there is still a 5% penalty chance. The chance of a penalty being scored is: 50 + (4 x penalty takers skill) - (2 x Gk skill) % (to a maximum 95%) ******* PRESTON NORTH END FC CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS ******* - Team Hardness: 1; (1 10% chance of yielding a PK) - PK Taker: Kian Clarke SL 16 - Defending Gk: Smahi Regragui SL 16 1: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 92 (no penalty kick) ******* NOTTINGHAM FOREST CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS ******* - Team Hardness: 0; (1 5% chance of yielding a PK) - PK Taker: Owen Bennett SL 17 - Defending Gk: Charlie Cockayne SL 15 intRndPk = 51 1: Chance of PK occurring = 5% | Random number = 51 (no penalty kick) ============================================================================ ============================================================================ A T T A C K I N G C H A N C E S & S H O T S (i) If team A's Fw area total is greater than team B's Df area total, then A earns a number of attacks equal to the difference. Note: A Sw does NOT add his levels to the Df in this league! (ii) The team with the highest Mf area total gets attacks equal to half the difference. (iii) If team A's Df area total is greater than team B's Fw total, then team A earns a number of attacks equal to one fifth of the difference. If team A is playing a sweeper behind the defence, this rises to one third of the difference. All fractions of attacks are rounded up, and then each of the attacks is treated as follows to see how many produce shots, then goals: (iv) Attacks have first to beat the Sw (if playing!). For each attack, there is a percentage chance of it being stopped equal to: 30 + (Sw level x 2) % (eg a level 10 Sw stops 30+10x2=50% of attacks.) Attacks passing the Sw become shots. (v) Each shot has a 35% chance of being off-target. If a side has scored 2 goals this rises to 40%, then by a further 5% after each goal scored, to a maximum of 75%. This is to curb ridiculous scorelines (with luck!) (vi) Finally, on-target shots come up against the Gk. This is similar to the Sw test, but the percentage is: 40 + (Gk level x 2.25) % Notes: If the defense is playing offside trap then the offensive team has their Fw attacks cut in half and theor Mf attacks doubled. A team choosing to PFD has 7 extra levels to split between Sw, Df and Mf areas, but their attacks for each area will be halved (round up fractions). ******* NOTTINGHAM FOREST ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS ******* AREA TOTALS GK Sw Df Mf Fw ------------------------------------------- Nottingham Forest 17 15 44 37 57 Preston North End FC 21 16 27 25 60 Nottingham Forest Fw Attacks = 30 (57 - 27); result rounded up Nottingham Forest Mf Attacks = 6 ((37 - 25) / 2) ; result rounded up Nottingham Forest Df Attacks = 0 ((44 - 60) / 3; rounded up) Nottingham Forest Total Attacks = 36 1: Attack for Mf Derek Holmes Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 98 (Sw did not stop attack!!) Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 89 (Shot On Target) Chance of Gk Save = 87.25% | Random number = 85.55 (Shot Saved by Gk) 2: Attack for Mf Freddie Cockham Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 2 (Sw stopped attack) 3: Attack for Mf Freddie Cockham Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 54 (Sw stopped attack) 4: Attack for Mf Derek Holmes Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 31 (Sw stopped attack) 5: Attack for Mf Freddie Cockham Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 64 (Sw did not stop attack!!) Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 52 (Shot On Target) Chance of Gk Save = 87.25% | Random number = 74.61 (Shot Saved by Gk) 6: Attack for Mf Johnny Rieder Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 80 (Sw did not stop attack!!) Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 20 (Shot Off Target) 7: Attack for Fw Josh Watson Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 48 (Sw stopped attack) 8: Attack for Fw Kian Clarke Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 7 (Sw stopped attack) 9: Attack for Fw Kian Clarke Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 17 (Sw stopped attack) 10: Attack for Fw Josh Watson Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 75 (Sw did not stop attack!!) Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 24 (Shot Off Target) 11: Attack for Fw Josh Watson Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 91 (Sw did not stop attack!!) Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 74 (Shot On Target) Chance of Gk Save = 87.25% | Random number = 45.11 (Shot Saved by Gk) 12: Attack for Fw Ilija Caleta-Car Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 73 (Sw did not stop attack!!) Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 44 (Shot On Target) Chance of Gk Save = 87.25% | Random number = 86.57 (Shot Saved by Gk) 13: Attack for Fw Josh Watson Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 19 (Sw stopped attack) 14: Attack for Fw Ilija Caleta-Car Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 19 (Sw stopped attack) 15: Attack for Fw Ilija Caleta-Car Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 6 (Sw stopped attack) 16: Attack for Fw Kian Clarke Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 69 (Sw did not stop attack!!) Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 100 (Shot On Target) Chance of Gk Save = 87.25% | Random number = 13.48 (Shot Saved by Gk) 17: Attack for Fw Josh Watson Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 97 (Sw did not stop attack!!) Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 62 (Shot On Target) Chance of Gk Save = 87.25% | Random number = 94.25 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 18: Attack for Fw Kian Clarke Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 42 (Sw stopped attack) 19: Attack for Fw Josh Watson Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 65 (Sw did not stop attack!!) Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 4 (Shot Off Target) 20: Attack for Fw Josh Watson Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 100 (Sw did not stop attack!!) Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 94 (Shot On Target) Chance of Gk Save = 87.25% | Random number = 21.73 (Shot Saved by Gk) 21: Attack for Fw Kian Clarke Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 22 (Sw stopped attack) 22: Attack for Fw Ilija Caleta-Car Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 86 (Sw did not stop attack!!) Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 93 (Shot On Target) Chance of Gk Save = 87.25% | Random number = 47.17 (Shot Saved by Gk) 23: Attack for Fw Kian Clarke Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 34 (Sw stopped attack) 24: Attack for Fw Kian Clarke Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 40 (Sw stopped attack) 25: Attack for Fw Ilija Caleta-Car Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 33 (Sw stopped attack) 26: Attack for Fw Josh Watson Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 27 (Sw stopped attack) 27: Attack for Fw Josh Watson Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 74 (Sw did not stop attack!!) Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 97 (Shot On Target) Chance of Gk Save = 87.25% | Random number = 71.63 (Shot Saved by Gk) 28: Attack for Fw Josh Watson Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 25 (Sw stopped attack) 29: Attack for Fw Ilija Caleta-Car Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 65 (Sw did not stop attack!!) Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 79 (Shot On Target) Chance of Gk Save = 87.25% | Random number = 30.41 (Shot Saved by Gk) 30: Attack for Fw Kian Clarke Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 13 (Sw stopped attack) 31: Attack for Fw Ilija Caleta-Car Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 45 (Sw stopped attack) 32: Attack for Fw Josh Watson Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 50 (Sw stopped attack) 33: Attack for Fw Ilija Caleta-Car Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 39 (Sw stopped attack) 34: Attack for Fw Kian Clarke Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 99 (Sw did not stop attack!!) Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 13 (Shot Off Target) 35: Attack for Fw Josh Watson Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 84 (Sw did not stop attack!!) Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 100 (Shot On Target) Chance of Gk Save = 87.25% | Random number = 27.99 (Shot Saved by Gk) 36: Attack for Fw Ilija Caleta-Car Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 72 (Sw did not stop attack!!) Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 84 (Shot On Target) Chance of Gk Save = 87.25% | Random number = 7.83 (Shot Saved by Gk) ******* PRESTON NORTH END FC ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS ******* AREA TOTALS GK Sw Df Mf Fw ------------------------------------------- Preston North End FC 21 16 27 25 60 Nottingham Forest 17 15 44 37 57 Preston North End FC Fw Attacks = 16 (60 - 44); result rounded up Preston North End FC Mf Attacks = 0 ((25 - 37) / 2; rounded up) Preston North End FC Df Attacks = 0 ((27 - 57) / 3; rounded up) Preston North End FC Total Attacks = 16 1: Attack for Fw Heorhiy Kozak Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 32 (Sw stopped attack) 2: Attack for Fw Angus McKay Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 87 (Sw did not stop attack!!) Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 29 (Shot Off Target) 3: Attack for Fw Eduardo Luna Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 96 (Sw did not stop attack!!) Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 89 (Shot On Target) Chance of Gk Save = 78.25% | Random number = 51.49 (Shot Saved by Gk) 4: Attack for Fw Heorhiy Kozak Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 66 (Sw did not stop attack!!) Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 97 (Shot On Target) Chance of Gk Save = 78.25% | Random number = 74.32 (Shot Saved by Gk) 5: Attack for Fw Owen Bennett Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 27 (Sw stopped attack) 6: Attack for Fw Angus McKay Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 36 (Sw stopped attack) 7: Attack for Fw Owen Bennett Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 21 (Sw stopped attack) 8: Attack for Fw Eduardo Luna Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 55 (Sw stopped attack) 9: Attack for Fw Heorhiy Kozak Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 14 (Sw stopped attack) 10: Attack for Fw Angus McKay Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 19 (Sw stopped attack) 11: Attack for Fw Owen Bennett Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 31 (Sw stopped attack) 12: Attack for Fw Heorhiy Kozak Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 77 (Sw did not stop attack!!) Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 94 (Shot On Target) Chance of Gk Save = 78.25% | Random number = 83.41 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 13: Attack for Fw Owen Bennett Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 59 (Sw stopped attack) 14: Attack for Fw Heorhiy Kozak Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 47 (Sw stopped attack) 15: Attack for Fw Heorhiy Kozak Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 65 (Sw did not stop attack!!) Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 13 (Shot Off Target) 16: Attack for Fw Raphaël Mayeux Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 68 (Sw did not stop attack!!) Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 99 (Shot On Target) Chance of Gk Save = 78.25% | Random number = 85.87 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) =============================================== F I N A L S C O R E NOTTINGHAM FOREST 1 - PRESTON NORTH END FC 2
Match Notes
I swore out loud in a shop just now.
Steve (Nottingham Forest) 03/09 - 7:42 PM
I have images of genteel old ladies looking very shocked
Roger (Bristol City FC) 03/10 - 2:08 PM