(H)
Lewes FC
Dave Dohm
Brentford FC
Allan Sellers
League Round 15
S T A R T I N G L I N E U P S LEWES FC BRENTFORD FC Ps Player Name SL FIT LVL Ps Player Name SL FIT LVL ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Gk Marcos Cruz 15 2 17 Gk Sion Watkins 17 2 19 Sw Geoffrey Pilkington 13 2 15 Sw Anton Jurman 13 1 14 Df André Bukari 13 2 15 Df Dragan Jedjav 17 2 19 Df Aaron MacKay 13 2 15 Df Tobias Damish 14 2 16 Df Shay Given 9 2 11 Df Theo Abrahamsson 12 2 14 Mf Veselin Dudnyk 14 2 16 Df Martyn Owen 9 2 11 Mf Henrik Kristensen 9 2 11 Mf Cédric Kamga 14 2 16 Fw Juan Carlos Parra 18 1 19 Mf Geert De Ketelaere 9 2 11 Fw Justice Shorunmu 15 2 17 Fw Michael Lagerbäck 15 2 17 Fw Taylor Stevenson 13 2 15 Fw Jack Williams 13 2 15 Fw Ichiro Sakai 9 2 11 Fw Róger Issahaku 17 2 19 Gk Sw Df Mf Fw A R E A T O T A L S Gk Sw Df Mf Fw ----------------------------------------------------------------------- 17 15 41 27 62 ROSTER TOTALS 19 14 60 27 51 1 0 0 0 0 HARDNESS 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 HOME ADVANTAGE 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 GREAT PERFORMANCE POINTS 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 PLAY FOR DRAW 0 0 0 0 0 ======================================================================= 20 15 41 27 71 T O T A L S 19 14 60 27 51 ============================================================================ ============================================================================ B O O K I N G S Each player is next given a chance for a yellow/red card. The first number listed is the chance for the player to get the yellow/red card while the second number shows the random number drawn. If the random number is less than or equal to the player's yellow/red card chance then the player is sent off. Note that the chances are as follows: - Booking: 1.5 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness)) - Red Card: 0.25 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness))) If a player is booked we immediately draw a second number to check for a 'second yellow' (red card chance) resulting in a sending off. If a player is not booked we draw a red card chance to see if the player was given a straight red card. Note that the aforementioned formula differs for a Gk where the formula uses the hardness points added to your Gk area and NOT the team hardness points. ******* LEWES FC YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES ******* - Team Hardness = 1 - Gk Hardness = 1 Gk Marcos Cruz: Chance of booking = 6.75% | Random number = 18.47 (no booking) Chance of straight red card = 1.0% | Random number = 61.16 (no red card) Sw Geoffrey Pilkington: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 90.57 (no booking) Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 73.44 (no red card) Df André Bukari: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 62.62 (no booking) Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 32.25 (no red card) Df Aaron MacKay: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 13.54 (no booking) Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 82.65 (no red card) Df Shay Given: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 85.05 (no booking) Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 20.44 (no red card) Mf Veselin Dudnyk: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 90.64 (no booking) Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 39.04 (no red card) Mf Henrik Kristensen: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 1.95 (BOOKED!) Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 91.42 (no second yellow) Fw Juan Carlos Parra: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 68.97 (no booking) Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 68.05 (no red card) Fw Justice Shorunmu: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 33.41 (no booking) Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 67.79 (no red card) Fw Taylor Stevenson: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 92.23 (no booking) Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 95.52 (no red card) Fw Ichiro Sakai: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 54.79 (no booking) Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 78.05 (no red card) ******* BRENTFORD FC YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES ******* - Team Hardness = 0 - Gk Hardness = 0 Gk Sion Watkins: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 99.19 (no booking) Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 2.94 (no red card) Sw Anton Jurman: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 98.16 (no booking) Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 71.01 (no red card) Df Dragan Jedjav: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 40.09 (no booking) Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 86.79 (no red card) Df Tobias Damish: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 93.96 (no booking) Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 71.69 (no red card) Df Theo Abrahamsson: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 16.8 (no booking) Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 20.53 (no red card) Df Martyn Owen: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 71.29 (no booking) Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 39.53 (no red card) Mf Cédric Kamga: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 66.08 (no booking) Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 31.19 (no red card) Mf Geert De Ketelaere: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 80.21 (no booking) Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 89.24 (no red card) Fw Michael Lagerbäck: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 63.03 (no booking) Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 15.47 (no red card) Fw Jack Williams: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 23.12 (no booking) Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 83.92 (no red card) Fw Róger Issahaku: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 32.9 (no booking) Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 56.02 (no red card) ============================================================================ ============================================================================ I N J U R I E S A major consequence of hardness is that your opponents get injured. For each player the chance of injury is: ((your team’s hardness * .25) + (opponent’s hardness * .75) + 2.5)%. For example if your team has a hardness of 8 and the opposition has a hardness of 4, the chance of injury for each player would be: 2 + 3 + 2.5 or 7.5%. The chance is halved for the opposition Gk. A player plays at half his normal level (skill plus fitness) in the match in which he is injured. Injured players lose fitness as a result, the amount of fitness lost being shown on the game report in brackets. There is a 30% chance of no fitness loss, 15% chance of 1 level fitness lost, 15% of 2 levels, and a 10% chance of each of 3,4,5, or 6 fitness levels being lost. This fitness loss (if any) takes place at the end of the session, for reasons of simplicity. Should a player be injured twice or more in a session, only the most severe injury will apply. ******* LEWES FC CHANCES FOR INJURY ******* - Lewes FC Team Hardness = 1 - Brentford FC Team Hardness = 0 - All (except Gk) chance of injury = 2.75% - Gk chance of injury = 1.37% Gk Marcos Cruz: Chance of injury = 1.37% | Random number = 23.1 (no injury) Sw Geoffrey Pilkington: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 76.61 (no injury) Df André Bukari: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 26.81 (no injury) Df Aaron MacKay: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 84.78 (no injury) Df Shay Given: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 55.44 (no injury) Mf Veselin Dudnyk: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 4.54 (no injury) Mf Henrik Kristensen: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 83.27 (no injury) Fw Juan Carlos Parra: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 42.69 (no injury) Fw Justice Shorunmu: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 83.55 (no injury) Fw Taylor Stevenson: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 19.53 (no injury) Fw Ichiro Sakai: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 54.35 (no injury) ******* BRENTFORD FC CHANCES FOR INJURY ******* - Brentford FC Team Hardness = 0 - Lewes FC Team Hardness = 1 - All (except Gk) chance of injury = 3.25% - Gk chance of injury = 1.62% Gk Sion Watkins: Chance of injury = 1.62% | Random number = 6.98 (no injury) Sw Anton Jurman: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 38.78 (no injury) Df Dragan Jedjav: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 82.38 (no injury) Df Tobias Damish: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 4.52 (no injury) Df Theo Abrahamsson: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 8.04 (no injury) Df Martyn Owen: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 65.27 (no injury) Mf Cédric Kamga: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 14.15 (no injury) Mf Geert De Ketelaere: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 68.45 (no injury) Fw Michael Lagerbäck: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 89.93 (no injury) Fw Jack Williams: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 40.05 (no injury) Fw Róger Issahaku: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 21.45 (no injury) ============================================================================ ============================================================================ P E N A L T Y K I C K S There is a 10% chance of conceding a penalty for every hardness point used. Each 10% chance is separate, so a team could concede as many penalties as it plays hardness points. If no hardness is used, there is still a 5% penalty chance. The chance of a penalty being scored is: 50 + (4 x penalty takers skill) - (2 x Gk skill) % (to a maximum 95%) ******* BRENTFORD FC CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS ******* - Team Hardness: 0; (1 5% chance of yielding a PK) - PK Taker: Juan Carlos Parra SL 18 - Defending Gk: Sion Watkins SL 17 intRndPk = 72 1: Chance of PK occurring = 5% | Random number = 72 (no penalty kick) ******* LEWES FC CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS ******* - Team Hardness: 1; (1 10% chance of yielding a PK) - PK Taker: Dragan Jedjav SL 17 - Defending Gk: Marcos Cruz SL 15 1: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 58 (no penalty kick) ============================================================================ ============================================================================ A T T A C K I N G C H A N C E S & S H O T S (i) If team A's Fw area total is greater than team B's Df area total, then A earns a number of attacks equal to the difference. Note: A Sw does NOT add his levels to the Df in this league! (ii) The team with the highest Mf area total gets attacks equal to half the difference. (iii) If team A's Df area total is greater than team B's Fw total, then team A earns a number of attacks equal to one fifth of the difference. If team A is playing a sweeper behind the defence, this rises to one third of the difference. All fractions of attacks are rounded up, and then each of the attacks is treated as follows to see how many produce shots, then goals: (iv) Attacks have first to beat the Sw (if playing!). For each attack, there is a percentage chance of it being stopped equal to: 30 + (Sw level x 2) % (eg a level 10 Sw stops 30+10x2=50% of attacks.) Attacks passing the Sw become shots. (v) Each shot has a 35% chance of being off-target. If a side has scored 2 goals this rises to 40%, then by a further 5% after each goal scored, to a maximum of 75%. This is to curb ridiculous scorelines (with luck!) (vi) Finally, on-target shots come up against the Gk. This is similar to the Sw test, but the percentage is: 40 + (Gk level x 2.25) % Notes: If the defense is playing offside trap then the offensive team has their Fw attacks cut in half and theor Mf attacks doubled. A team choosing to PFD has 7 extra levels to split between Sw, Df and Mf areas, but their attacks for each area will be halved (round up fractions). ******* LEWES FC ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS ******* AREA TOTALS GK Sw Df Mf Fw ------------------------------------------- Lewes FC 20 15 41 27 71 Brentford FC 19 14 60 27 51 Lewes FC Fw Attacks = 11 (71 - 60); result rounded up Lewes FC Mf Attacks = 0 ((27 - 27) / 2; rounded up) Lewes FC Df Attacks = 0 ((41 - 51) / 3; rounded up) Lewes FC Total Attacks = 11 1: Attack for Fw Justice Shorunmu Chance of Sw stopping attack = 58% | Random number = 2 (Sw stopped attack) 2: Attack for Fw Justice Shorunmu Chance of Sw stopping attack = 58% | Random number = 80 (Sw did not stop attack!!) Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 10 (Shot Off Target) 3: Attack for Fw Juan Carlos Parra Chance of Sw stopping attack = 58% | Random number = 99 (Sw did not stop attack!!) Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 36 (Shot On Target) Chance of Gk Save = 82.75% | Random number = 45.46 (Shot Saved by Gk) 4: Attack for Fw Juan Carlos Parra Chance of Sw stopping attack = 58% | Random number = 79 (Sw did not stop attack!!) Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 81 (Shot On Target) Chance of Gk Save = 82.75% | Random number = 26.63 (Shot Saved by Gk) 5: Attack for Fw Justice Shorunmu Chance of Sw stopping attack = 58% | Random number = 92 (Sw did not stop attack!!) Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 52 (Shot On Target) Chance of Gk Save = 82.75% | Random number = 84.35 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 6: Attack for Fw Ichiro Sakai Chance of Sw stopping attack = 58% | Random number = 53 (Sw stopped attack) 7: Attack for Fw Juan Carlos Parra Chance of Sw stopping attack = 58% | Random number = 1 (Sw stopped attack) 8: Attack for Fw Taylor Stevenson Chance of Sw stopping attack = 58% | Random number = 8 (Sw stopped attack) 9: Attack for Fw Taylor Stevenson Chance of Sw stopping attack = 58% | Random number = 26 (Sw stopped attack) 10: Attack for Fw Ichiro Sakai Chance of Sw stopping attack = 58% | Random number = 19 (Sw stopped attack) 11: Attack for Fw Justice Shorunmu Chance of Sw stopping attack = 58% | Random number = 72 (Sw did not stop attack!!) Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 98 (Shot On Target) Chance of Gk Save = 82.75% | Random number = 68.81 (Shot Saved by Gk) ******* BRENTFORD FC ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS ******* AREA TOTALS GK Sw Df Mf Fw ------------------------------------------- Brentford FC 19 14 60 27 51 Lewes FC 20 15 41 27 71 Brentford FC Fw Attacks = 10 (51 - 41); result rounded up Brentford FC Mf Attacks = 0 ((27 - 27) / 2; rounded up) Brentford FC Df Attacks = 0 ((60 - 71) / 3; rounded up) Brentford FC Total Attacks = 10 1: Attack for Fw Michael Lagerbäck Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 40 (Sw stopped attack) 2: Attack for Fw Michael Lagerbäck Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 84 (Sw did not stop attack!!) Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 29 (Shot Off Target) 3: Attack for Fw Róger Issahaku Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 49 (Sw stopped attack) 4: Attack for Fw Róger Issahaku Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 24 (Sw stopped attack) 5: Attack for Fw Jack Williams Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 31 (Sw stopped attack) 6: Attack for Fw Michael Lagerbäck Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 14 (Sw stopped attack) 7: Attack for Fw Jack Williams Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 8 (Sw stopped attack) 8: Attack for Fw Róger Issahaku Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 93 (Sw did not stop attack!!) Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 80 (Shot On Target) Chance of Gk Save = 85.0% | Random number = 84.86 (Shot Saved by Gk) 9: Attack for Fw Michael Lagerbäck Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 61 (Sw did not stop attack!!) Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 94 (Shot On Target) Chance of Gk Save = 85.0% | Random number = 12.36 (Shot Saved by Gk) 10: Attack for Fw Michael Lagerbäck Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 8 (Sw stopped attack) =============================================== F I N A L S C O R E LEWES FC 1 - BRENTFORD FC 0
Match Notes
I was surprised to see that Brentford have only had one injury all season and lost just a single fitness point. I wonder if that will change after this match up with Dave?
Roger (Bristol City FC) 03/18 - 7:50 PM
Well........the only way we could possibly win this match against the # 1 rated Brentford Bees would be to knock a player or two our and play with and advantage.
Dave (Lewes FC) 03/19 - 10:06 PM
Time to dust off the old cleats high strategy...I don't think I've used that since my early days in the league.
Dave (Lewes FC) 03/22 - 10:10 PM
I believe the word you are looking to express in your comments Roger is "tampering". Surely, the commish would never make a similar suggestion! 😎
Allan (Brentford FC) 03/22 - 10:37 PM
Have no fear, Darth Dohm will have this match under control from the opening whistle. We are 6 goal underdogs!
Allan (Brentford FC) 03/22 - 10:38 PM
these two managers have a fierce rivalry. anything could happen!
Vick (Weston-super-Mare AFC) 03/23 - 9:40 AM
In Justice we trust
Dave (Lewes FC) 03/23 - 6:10 PM
Congratulations Mr. D!
Allan (Brentford FC) 03/23 - 6:15 PM