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Watford
James Tucker
 
Southend United
Dave Dowson
 
 
League Round 4
 
 
 
 

S  T  A  R  T  I  N  G      L  I  N  E  U  P  S

WATFORD                                    SOUTHEND UNITED

Ps Player Name            SL  FIT  LVL     Ps Player Name            SL  FIT  LVL
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gk Ollie Baker            15    2   17     Gk Harrison Bennett       11    1   12
Sw John MacDonald         12    2   14     Sw Noe Morice             10    1   11
Df Peter Burns            13    0   13     Df Geoffrey Jackson       10    1   11
Df Rókus Szoke             9    1   10     Df Daniel Morris           6    2    8
Df Stewart Tufnel          6    1    7     Df Dave Ruiz               3    2    5
Fw Matty Williams         13    0   13     Mf Henry Cockayne         11    1   12
Mf Wes Barmby             10    1   11     Mf Dennis Cox             11    1   12
Mf Erik Weber              3    2    5     Mf Giorgio Valentini       6    2    8
Fw Thomas Fergusen        13    1   14     Fw Simon Forsberg         12    1   13
Fw Fionn Quinn            10    2   12     Fw Finlay Neville          6    2    8
Fw André Ferreira          6    2    8     Fw Filippo Costa           6    2    8

      Gk Sw Df Mf Fw   A R E A  T O T A L S    Gk Sw Df Mf Fw
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
      17 14 30 16 47        ROSTER TOTALS      12 11 24 32 29    
       0  0  0  1  0          HARDNESS          0  0  5  0  0    
       0  0  0  2  7       HOME ADVANTAGE       0  0  0  0  0    
       0  0  0  0  0  GREAT PERFORMANCE POINTS  0  0  0  0  0    
       0  0  0  0  0        PLAY FOR DRAW       0  0  0  0  0    
=======================================================================
      17 14 30 19 54         T O T A L S       12 11 29 32 29    

============================================================================
============================================================================
B  O  O  K  I  N  G  S

Each player is next given a chance for a yellow/red card.  The first
number listed is the chance for the player to get the yellow/red
card while the second number shows the random number drawn.  If the 
random number is less than or equal to the player's yellow/red card 
chance then the player is sent off.  Note that the chances are as follows:
	- Booking: 1.5 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness))
	- Red Card: 0.25 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness)))

If a player is booked we immediately draw a second number to check
for a 'second yellow' (red card chance) resulting in a sending off.
If a player is not booked we draw a red card chance to see if the player
was given a straight red card.  Note that the aforementioned formula
differs for a Gk where the formula uses the hardness points added to
your Gk area and NOT the team hardness points.

*******  WATFORD YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
   - Team Hardness = 1
   - Gk   Hardness = 0

Gk Ollie Baker: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 22.75 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 14.75 (no red card)

Sw John MacDonald: Chance of booking = 6.75% | Random number = 84.34 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.12% | Random number = 92.32 (no red card)

Df Peter Burns: Chance of booking = 6.75% | Random number = 16.75 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.12% | Random number = 34.93 (no red card)

Df Rókus Szoke: Chance of booking = 6.75% | Random number = 21.17 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.12% | Random number = 86.58 (no red card)

Df Stewart Tufnel: Chance of booking = 6.75% | Random number = 93.27 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.12% | Random number = 97.7 (no red card)

Fw Matty Williams: Chance of booking = 6.75% | Random number = 63.3 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.12% | Random number = 52.37 (no red card)

Mf Wes Barmby: Chance of booking = 6.75% | Random number = 72.69 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.12% | Random number = 45.58 (no red card)

Mf Erik Weber: Chance of booking = 6.75% | Random number = 7.11 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.12% | Random number = 65.6 (no red card)

Fw Thomas Fergusen: Chance of booking = 6.75% | Random number = 19.99 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.12% | Random number = 31.6 (no red card)

Fw Fionn Quinn: Chance of booking = 6.75% | Random number = 5.44 (BOOKED!) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.12% | Random number = 4.75 (no second yellow)

Fw André Ferreira: Chance of booking = 6.75% | Random number = 37.8 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.12% | Random number = 44.24 (no red card)

*******  SOUTHEND UNITED YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
   - Team Hardness = 5
   - Gk   Hardness = 0

Gk Harrison Bennett: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 65.85 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 86.86 (no red card)

Sw Noe Morice: Chance of booking = 15.75% | Random number = 52.07 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 2.62% | Random number = 70.37 (no red card)

Df Geoffrey Jackson: Chance of booking = 15.75% | Random number = 89.09 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 2.62% | Random number = 34.26 (no red card)

Df Daniel Morris: Chance of booking = 15.75% | Random number = 86.25 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 2.62% | Random number = 35.39 (no red card)

Df Dave Ruiz: Chance of booking = 15.75% | Random number = 6.76 (BOOKED!) 
   Chance of second booking = 2.62% | Random number = 36.99 (no second yellow)

Mf Henry Cockayne: Chance of booking = 15.75% | Random number = 48.8 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 2.62% | Random number = 78.65 (no red card)

Mf Dennis Cox: Chance of booking = 15.75% | Random number = 42.6 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 2.62% | Random number = 81.67 (no red card)

Mf Giorgio Valentini: Chance of booking = 15.75% | Random number = 8.58 (BOOKED!) 
   Chance of second booking = 2.62% | Random number = 92.49 (no second yellow)

Fw Simon Forsberg: Chance of booking = 15.75% | Random number = 2.79 (BOOKED!) 
   Chance of second booking = 2.62% | Random number = 16.56 (no second yellow)

Fw Finlay Neville: Chance of booking = 15.75% | Random number = 2.07 (BOOKED!) 
   Chance of second booking = 2.62% | Random number = 29.92 (no second yellow)

Fw Filippo Costa: Chance of booking = 15.75% | Random number = 57.33 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 2.62% | Random number = 43.81 (no red card)
============================================================================
============================================================================
I  N  J  U  R  I  E  S

A major consequence of hardness is that your opponents get injured. 
For each player the chance of injury is:   
  ((your team’s hardness * .25) + (opponent’s hardness * .75) + 2.5)%.
    For example if your team has a hardness of 8 and the opposition has a hardness of 4,
    the chance of injury for each player would be: 2 + 3 + 2.5 or 7.5%.

The chance is halved for the opposition Gk. A player plays at half 
his normal level (skill plus fitness) in the match in which he is injured.

Injured players lose fitness as a result, the amount of fitness lost being
shown on the game report in brackets. There is a 30% chance of no fitness loss,
15% chance of 1 level fitness lost, 15% of 2 levels, and a 10% chance
of each of 3,4,5, or 6 fitness levels being lost. 
This fitness loss (if any) takes place at the end of the session, for 
reasons of simplicity. Should a player be injured twice or
more in a session, only the most severe injury will apply.


*******  WATFORD CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
   - Watford Team Hardness = 1
   - Southend United Team Hardness = 5
   - All (except Gk) chance of injury = 6.5%
   - Gk chance of injury = 3.25%
Gk Ollie Baker: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 60.53 (no injury) 
Sw John MacDonald: Chance of injury = 6.5% | Random number = 76.62 (no injury) 
Df Peter Burns: Chance of injury = 6.5% | Random number = 5.65 (INJURED!) 
      Targeted fitness lost = 0
      Peter Burns is being assisted by the Physio and appears to be just fine.
Df Rókus Szoke: Chance of injury = 6.5% | Random number = 47.11 (no injury) 
Df Stewart Tufnel: Chance of injury = 6.5% | Random number = 9.82 (no injury) 
Fw Matty Williams: Chance of injury = 6.5% | Random number = 63.81 (no injury) 
Mf Wes Barmby: Chance of injury = 6.5% | Random number = 38.44 (no injury) 
Mf Erik Weber: Chance of injury = 6.5% | Random number = 47.63 (no injury) 
Fw Thomas Fergusen: Chance of injury = 6.5% | Random number = 68.77 (no injury) 
Fw Fionn Quinn: Chance of injury = 6.5% | Random number = 67.28 (no injury) 
Fw André Ferreira: Chance of injury = 6.5% | Random number = 42.56 (no injury) 

*******  SOUTHEND UNITED CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
   - Southend United Team Hardness = 5
   - Watford Team Hardness = 1
   - All (except Gk) chance of injury = 4.5%
   - Gk chance of injury = 2.25%
Gk Harrison Bennett: Chance of injury = 2.25% | Random number = 25.19 (no injury) 
Sw Noe Morice: Chance of injury = 4.5% | Random number = 38.58 (no injury) 
Df Geoffrey Jackson: Chance of injury = 4.5% | Random number = 42.48 (no injury) 
Df Daniel Morris: Chance of injury = 4.5% | Random number = 90.32 (no injury) 
Df Dave Ruiz: Chance of injury = 4.5% | Random number = 71.04 (no injury) 
Mf Henry Cockayne: Chance of injury = 4.5% | Random number = 64.02 (no injury) 
Mf Dennis Cox: Chance of injury = 4.5% | Random number = 1.77 (INJURED!) 
      Targeted fitness lost = 4
      Dennis Cox is being assisted by the Physio. He will lose 3 fitness points (deducted at end of session)
      Dennis Cox new match skill level =  6
      Dennis Cox new match total level =  7
Mf Giorgio Valentini: Chance of injury = 4.5% | Random number = 38.36 (no injury) 
Fw Simon Forsberg: Chance of injury = 4.5% | Random number = 52.51 (no injury) 
Fw Finlay Neville: Chance of injury = 4.5% | Random number = 2.51 (INJURED!) 
      Targeted fitness lost = 0
      Finlay Neville is being assisted by the Physio and appears to be just fine.
Fw Filippo Costa: Chance of injury = 4.5% | Random number = 11.5 (no injury) 
============================================================================
============================================================================
P  E  N  A  L  T  Y     K  I  C  K  S

There is a 10% chance of conceding a penalty for every hardness point used.
Each 10% chance is separate, so a team could concede as many penalties as it plays
hardness points. If no hardness is used, there is still a 5% penalty chance. 
The chance of a penalty being scored is: 
  50 + (4 x penalty takers skill) - (2 x Gk skill)  %    (to a maximum 95%)

*******  SOUTHEND UNITED CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
   - Team Hardness: 5; (5 10% chances of yielding PKs)
   - PK Taker: Peter Burns SL 13
   - Defending Gk: Harrison Bennett SL 11

1: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 93 (no penalty kick)
2: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 88 (no penalty kick)
3: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 94 (no penalty kick)
4: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 13 (no penalty kick)
5: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 9 (PENALTY KICK!)
   Chance of scoring = 80% | Random number = 42 (PENALTY KICK GOOOAAALLL!!!)

*******  WATFORD CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
   - Team Hardness: 1; (1 10% chance of yielding a PK)
   - PK Taker: Simon Forsberg SL 12
   - Defending Gk: Ollie Baker SL 15

1: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 44 (no penalty kick)
============================================================================
============================================================================
A  T  T  A  C  K  I  N  G      C  H  A  N  C  E  S      &      S  H  O  T  S

  (i)   If team A's Fw area total is greater than team B's Df area total, 
        then A earns a number of attacks equal to the difference.
        Note: A Sw  does NOT add his levels to the Df in this league! 

  (ii)  The team with the highest Mf area total gets attacks equal to half
        the difference.

  (iii) If team A's Df area total is greater than team B's Fw total, then  
        team A earns a number of attacks equal to one fifth of the difference.
        If team A is playing a sweeper behind the defence, this rises to one 
        third of the difference.  All fractions of attacks are rounded up, 
        and then each of the attacks is treated as follows to see how many 
        produce shots, then goals: 

  (iv)  Attacks have first to beat the Sw (if playing!).  For each attack,
        there is a percentage chance of it being stopped equal to:
              30 + (Sw level x 2) % 
        (eg a level 10 Sw stops 30+10x2=50% of attacks.) Attacks passing the 
        Sw become shots.

  (v)   Each shot has a 35% chance of being off-target. If a side has scored
        2 goals this rises to 40%, then by a further 5% after each goal scored,
        to a maximum of 75%. This is to curb ridiculous scorelines (with luck!)

  (vi)  Finally, on-target shots come up against the  Gk. This is similar to 
        the Sw test, but the percentage is:
        40 + (Gk level x 2.25) % 

  Notes: If the defense is playing offside trap then the offensive team has
         their Fw attacks cut in half and theor Mf attacks doubled.

         A team choosing to PFD has 7 extra levels to split between Sw, 
         Df and Mf areas, but their attacks for each area will be halved 
         (round up fractions).

*******  WATFORD ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
  AREA TOTALS             GK  Sw  Df  Mf  Fw
  -------------------------------------------
  Watford                  17  14  30  19  54
  Southend United          12  11  29  27  29

Watford Fw Attacks = 25 (54 - 29); result rounded up
Watford Mf Attacks = 0 ((19 - 27) / 2;  rounded up)
Watford Df Attacks = 1 ((30 - 29) / 3); result rounded up
Watford Total Attacks = 26

1: Attack for Df Stewart Tufnel
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 46 (Sw stopped attack) 
2: Attack for Fw Matty Williams
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 44 (Sw stopped attack) 
3: Attack for Fw Matty Williams
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 30 (Sw stopped attack) 
4: Attack for Fw Thomas Fergusen
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 9 (Sw stopped attack) 
5: Attack for Fw André Ferreira
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 20 (Sw stopped attack) 
6: Attack for Fw Matty Williams
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 69 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 58 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 67.0% | Random number = 90.48 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 
7: Attack for Fw Thomas Fergusen
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 64 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 72 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 67.0% | Random number = 16.29 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
8: Attack for Fw Matty Williams
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 12 (Sw stopped attack) 
9: Attack for Fw Matty Williams
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 29 (Sw stopped attack) 
10: Attack for Fw Thomas Fergusen
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 1 (Sw stopped attack) 
11: Attack for Fw Matty Williams
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 62 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 7 (Shot Off Target) 
12: Attack for Fw Fionn Quinn
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 58 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 63 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 67.0% | Random number = 40.81 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
13: Attack for Fw Fionn Quinn
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 81 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 96 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 67.0% | Random number = 86.42 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 
14: Attack for Fw Matty Williams
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 44 (Sw stopped attack) 
15: Attack for Fw Thomas Fergusen
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 29 (Sw stopped attack) 
16: Attack for Fw Fionn Quinn
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 78 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 45% | Random number = 56 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 67.0% | Random number = 96.03 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 
17: Attack for Fw Thomas Fergusen
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 71 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 50% | Random number = 35 (Shot Off Target) 
18: Attack for Fw Fionn Quinn
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 30 (Sw stopped attack) 
19: Attack for Fw Matty Williams
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 47 (Sw stopped attack) 
20: Attack for Fw Matty Williams
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 60 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 50% | Random number = 97 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 67.0% | Random number = 71.62 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 
21: Attack for Fw Fionn Quinn
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 50 (Sw stopped attack) 
22: Attack for Fw Thomas Fergusen
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 21 (Sw stopped attack) 
23: Attack for Fw André Ferreira
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 88 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 55% | Random number = 55 (Shot Off Target) 
24: Attack for Fw Matty Williams
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 81 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 55% | Random number = 83 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 67.0% | Random number = 9.01 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
25: Attack for Fw Matty Williams
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 1 (Sw stopped attack) 
26: Attack for Fw Thomas Fergusen
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 50 (Sw stopped attack) 

*******  SOUTHEND UNITED ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
  AREA TOTALS             GK  Sw  Df  Mf  Fw
  -------------------------------------------
  Southend United          12  11  29  27  29
  Watford                  17  14  30  19  54

Southend United Fw Attacks = 0 (29 - 30)
Southend United Mf Attacks = 4 ((27 - 19) / 2) ; result rounded up
Southend United Df Attacks = 0 ((29 - 54) / 3;  rounded up)
Southend United Total Attacks = 4

1: Attack for Mf Henry Cockayne
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 58% | Random number = 75 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 6 (Shot Off Target) 
2: Attack for Mf Henry Cockayne
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 58% | Random number = 47 (Sw stopped attack) 
3: Attack for Mf Dennis Cox
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 58% | Random number = 91 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 66 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 78.25% | Random number = 87.66 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 
4: Attack for Mf Dennis Cox
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 58% | Random number = 63 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 87 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 78.25% | Random number = 22.29 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
===============================================
     F  I  N  A  L         S  C  O  R  E
WATFORD 5  -  SOUTHEND UNITED 1
 
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