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Bristol City FC
Ellis Simpson
 
Swansea City AFC
Roy Rolsten
 
 
League Round 18
 
 
 
 

S  T  A  R  T  I  N  G      L  I  N  E  U  P  S

BRISTOL CITY FC                            SWANSEA CITY AFC

Ps Player Name            SL  FIT  LVL     Ps Player Name            SL  FIT  LVL
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gk Declan McAllister      16    1   17     Gk Laurence James         16    2   18
Df Alejandro  Segura      14    0   14     Sw Oscar Ford             12    2   14
Df Paul Brides            14    1   15     Df Brandon McAdam         13    2   15
Df Ivan Guerrero          10    2   12     Df Kristian Hagen         11    2   13
Df Juan Jose Saez         10    2   12     Df Sean Tufnel             7    2    9
Df Oliver Hills            9    2   11     Mf Douglas Carvalho       14    2   16
Mf Jermaine Hills         14    1   15     Mf Ben Neuville           14    2   16
Mf Daniel Martins         13    2   15     Mf William Martin          9    2   11
Mf Joe Hopkins             9    2   11     Mf Lilian Menard           9    1   10
Fw Greg Mason             15    2   17     Fw Luis Guerrero          14    2   16
Fw Liang X               15    2   17     Fw Elliot Baker           12    2   14

      Gk Sw Df Mf Fw   A R E A  T O T A L S    Gk Sw Df Mf Fw
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
      17  0 64 41 34        ROSTER TOTALS      18 14 37 53 30    
       0  0  0  0  0          HARDNESS          0  0  0  0  0    
       0  0  9  0  0       HOME ADVANTAGE       0  0  0  0  0    
       0  0  0  5  0  GREAT PERFORMANCE POINTS  3  0  0  0  0    
       0  0  0  0  0        PLAY FOR DRAW       0  0  0  0  0    
=======================================================================
      17  0 73 46 34         T O T A L S       21 14 37 53 30    

============================================================================
============================================================================
B  O  O  K  I  N  G  S

Each player is next given a chance for a yellow/red card.  The first
number listed is the chance for the player to get the yellow/red
card while the second number shows the random number drawn.  If the 
random number is less than or equal to the player's yellow/red card 
chance then the player is sent off.  Note that the chances are as follows:
	- Booking: 1.5 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness))
	- Red Card: 0.25 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness)))

If a player is booked we immediately draw a second number to check
for a 'second yellow' (red card chance) resulting in a sending off.
If a player is not booked we draw a red card chance to see if the player
was given a straight red card.  Note that the aforementioned formula
differs for a Gk where the formula uses the hardness points added to
your Gk area and NOT the team hardness points.

*******  BRISTOL CITY FC YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
   - Team Hardness = 0
   - Gk   Hardness = 0

Gk Declan McAllister: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 69.42 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 71.36 (no red card)

Df Alejandro  Segura: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 46.51 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 43.26 (no red card)

Df Paul Brides: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 70.88 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 20.7 (no red card)

Df Ivan Guerrero: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 62.57 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 41.74 (no red card)

Df Juan Jose Saez: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 81.68 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 42.31 (no red card)

Df Oliver Hills: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 6.61 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 88.96 (no red card)

Mf Jermaine Hills: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 11.05 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 74.52 (no red card)

Mf Daniel Martins: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 23.1 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 23.97 (no red card)

Mf Joe Hopkins: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 78.42 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 57.26 (no red card)

Fw Greg Mason: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 67.23 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 23.77 (no red card)

Fw Liang X: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 10.61 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 9.93 (no red card)

*******  SWANSEA CITY AFC YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
   - Team Hardness = 0
   - Gk   Hardness = 0

Gk Laurence James: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 61.47 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 48.99 (no red card)

Sw Oscar Ford: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 52.69 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 56.61 (no red card)

Df Brandon McAdam: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 89.0 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 8.95 (no red card)

Df Kristian Hagen: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 13.17 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 41.54 (no red card)

Df Sean Tufnel: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 48.01 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 58.42 (no red card)

Mf Douglas Carvalho: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 65.9 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 68.87 (no red card)

Mf Ben Neuville: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 5.57 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 80.89 (no red card)

Mf William Martin: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 93.77 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 81.35 (no red card)

Mf Lilian Menard: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 91.8 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 80.87 (no red card)

Fw Luis Guerrero: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 84.9 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 85.05 (no red card)

Fw Elliot Baker: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 15.21 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 28.09 (no red card)
============================================================================
============================================================================
I  N  J  U  R  I  E  S

A major consequence of hardness is that your opponents get injured. 
For each player the chance of injury is:   
  ((your teams hardness * .25) + (opponents hardness * .75) + 2.5)%.
    For example if your team has a hardness of 8 and the opposition has a hardness of 4,
    the chance of injury for each player would be: 2 + 3 + 2.5 or 7.5%.

The chance is halved for the opposition Gk. A player plays at half 
his normal level (skill plus fitness) in the match in which he is injured.

Injured players lose fitness as a result, the amount of fitness lost being
shown on the game report in brackets. There is a 30% chance of no fitness loss,
15% chance of 1 level fitness lost, 15% of 2 levels, and a 10% chance
of each of 3,4,5, or 6 fitness levels being lost. 
This fitness loss (if any) takes place at the end of the session, for 
reasons of simplicity. Should a player be injured twice or
more in a session, only the most severe injury will apply.


*******  BRISTOL CITY FC CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
   - Bristol City FC Team Hardness = 0
   - Swansea City AFC Team Hardness = 0
   - All (except Gk) chance of injury = 2.5%
   - Gk chance of injury = 1.25%
Gk Declan McAllister: Chance of injury = 1.25% | Random number = 35.07 (no injury) 
Df Alejandro  Segura: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 50.26 (no injury) 
Df Paul Brides: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 41.7 (no injury) 
Df Ivan Guerrero: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 47.92 (no injury) 
Df Juan Jose Saez: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 92.68 (no injury) 
Df Oliver Hills: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 36.5 (no injury) 
Mf Jermaine Hills: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 58.24 (no injury) 
Mf Daniel Martins: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 28.89 (no injury) 
Mf Joe Hopkins: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 21.61 (no injury) 
Fw Greg Mason: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 38.69 (no injury) 
Fw Liang X: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 33.92 (no injury) 

*******  SWANSEA CITY AFC CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
   - Swansea City AFC Team Hardness = 0
   - Bristol City FC Team Hardness = 0
   - All (except Gk) chance of injury = 2.5%
   - Gk chance of injury = 1.25%
Gk Laurence James: Chance of injury = 1.25% | Random number = 26.18 (no injury) 
Sw Oscar Ford: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 87.84 (no injury) 
Df Brandon McAdam: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 70.48 (no injury) 
Df Kristian Hagen: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 89.28 (no injury) 
Df Sean Tufnel: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 1.98 (INJURED!) 
      Targeted fitness lost = 0
      Sean Tufnel is being assisted by the Physio and appears to be just fine.
Mf Douglas Carvalho: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 2.74 (no injury) 
Mf Ben Neuville: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 82.97 (no injury) 
Mf William Martin: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 83.62 (no injury) 
Mf Lilian Menard: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 35.04 (no injury) 
Fw Luis Guerrero: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 4.54 (no injury) 
Fw Elliot Baker: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 40.81 (no injury) 
============================================================================
============================================================================
P  E  N  A  L  T  Y     K  I  C  K  S

There is a 10% chance of conceding a penalty for every hardness point used.
Each 10% chance is separate, so a team could concede as many penalties as it plays
hardness points. If no hardness is used, there is still a 5% penalty chance. 
The chance of a penalty being scored is: 
  50 + (4 x penalty takers skill) - (2 x Gk skill)  %    (to a maximum 95%)

*******  SWANSEA CITY AFC CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
   - Team Hardness: 0; (1 5% chance of yielding a PK)
   - PK Taker: Greg Mason SL 15
   - Defending Gk: Laurence James SL 16

     intRndPk = 13
1: Chance of PK occurring = 5% | Random number = 13 (no penalty kick)

*******  BRISTOL CITY FC CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
   - Team Hardness: 0; (1 5% chance of yielding a PK)
   - PK Taker: Douglas Carvalho SL 14
   - Defending Gk: Declan McAllister SL 16

     intRndPk = 67
1: Chance of PK occurring = 5% | Random number = 67 (no penalty kick)
============================================================================
============================================================================
A  T  T  A  C  K  I  N  G      C  H  A  N  C  E  S      &      S  H  O  T  S

  (i)   If team A's Fw area total is greater than team B's Df area total, 
        then A earns a number of attacks equal to the difference.
        Note: A Sw  does NOT add his levels to the Df in this league! 

  (ii)  The team with the highest Mf area total gets attacks equal to half
        the difference.

  (iii) If team A's Df area total is greater than team B's Fw total, then  
        team A earns a number of attacks equal to one fifth of the difference.
        If team A is playing a sweeper behind the defence, this rises to one 
        third of the difference.  All fractions of attacks are rounded up, 
        and then each of the attacks is treated as follows to see how many 
        produce shots, then goals: 

  (iv)  Attacks have first to beat the Sw (if playing!).  For each attack,
        there is a percentage chance of it being stopped equal to:
              30 + (Sw level x 2) % 
        (eg a level 10 Sw stops 30+10x2=50% of attacks.) Attacks passing the 
        Sw become shots.

  (v)   Each shot has a 35% chance of being off-target. If a side has scored
        2 goals this rises to 40%, then by a further 5% after each goal scored,
        to a maximum of 75%. This is to curb ridiculous scorelines (with luck!)

  (vi)  Finally, on-target shots come up against the  Gk. This is similar to 
        the Sw test, but the percentage is:
        40 + (Gk level x 2.25) % 

  Notes: If the defense is playing offside trap then the offensive team has
         their Fw attacks cut in half and theor Mf attacks doubled.

         A team choosing to PFD has 7 extra levels to split between Sw, 
         Df and Mf areas, but their attacks for each area will be halved 
         (round up fractions).

*******  BRISTOL CITY FC ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
  AREA TOTALS             GK  Sw  Df  Mf  Fw
  -------------------------------------------
  Bristol City FC          17   0  73  46  34
  Swansea City AFC         21  14  37  53  30

Bristol City FC Fw Attacks = 0 (34 - 37)
Bristol City FC Mf Attacks = 0 ((46 - 53) / 2;  rounded up)
Bristol City FC Df Attacks = 9 ((73 - 30) / 5); result rounded up
Bristol City FC Total Attacks = 9

1: Attack for Df Alejandro  Segura
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 58% | Random number = 47 (Sw stopped attack) 
2: Attack for Df Juan Jose Saez
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 58% | Random number = 79 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 36 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 87.25% | Random number = 65.82 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
3: Attack for Df Alejandro  Segura
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 58% | Random number = 88 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 99 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 87.25% | Random number = 49.68 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
4: Attack for Df Alejandro  Segura
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 58% | Random number = 97 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 61 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 87.25% | Random number = 73.25 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
5: Attack for Df Paul Brides
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 58% | Random number = 34 (Sw stopped attack) 
6: Attack for Df Oliver Hills
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 58% | Random number = 40 (Sw stopped attack) 
7: Attack for Df Alejandro  Segura
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 58% | Random number = 36 (Sw stopped attack) 
8: Attack for Df Ivan Guerrero
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 58% | Random number = 88 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 10 (Shot Off Target) 
9: Attack for Df Alejandro  Segura
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 58% | Random number = 37 (Sw stopped attack) 

*******  SWANSEA CITY AFC ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
  AREA TOTALS             GK  Sw  Df  Mf  Fw
  -------------------------------------------
  Swansea City AFC         21  14  37  53  30
  Bristol City FC          17   0  73  46  34

Bristol City FC is using Offside Trap!
Swansea City AFC Fw Attacks = 0 (30 - 73)
Swansea City AFC Mf Attacks = 7 ((53 - 46) / 2)  * 2.0 (OST Multiplier) ; result rounded up
Swansea City AFC Df Attacks = 1 ((37 - 34) / 3); result rounded up
Swansea City AFC Total Attacks = 8

1: Attack for Df Sean Tufnel
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Bristol City FC
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 10 (Shot Off Target) 
2: Attack for Mf Douglas Carvalho
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Bristol City FC
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 20 (Shot Off Target) 
3: Attack for Mf Douglas Carvalho
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Bristol City FC
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 7 (Shot Off Target) 
4: Attack for Mf Lilian Menard
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Bristol City FC
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 14 (Shot Off Target) 
5: Attack for Mf Lilian Menard
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Bristol City FC
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 17 (Shot Off Target) 
6: Attack for Mf Lilian Menard
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Bristol City FC
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 65 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 78.25% | Random number = 52.04 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
7: Attack for Mf Lilian Menard
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Bristol City FC
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 58 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 78.25% | Random number = 18.08 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
8: Attack for Mf William Martin
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Bristol City FC
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 9 (Shot Off Target) 
===============================================
     F  I  N  A  L         S  C  O  R  E
BRISTOL CITY FC 0  -  SWANSEA CITY AFC 0
 
Match Notes
Well played, Roy. A win for either of us would have meant avoiding relegation.
Ellis (Bristol City FC) 01/29 - 9:19 PM
 
 
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