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Preston North End FC
Ian Lindsay
 
Carlisle United
Dave Gittins
 
 
League Round 18
 
 
 
 

S  T  A  R  T  I  N  G      L  I  N  E  U  P  S

PRESTON NORTH END FC                       CARLISLE UNITED

Ps Player Name            SL  FIT  LVL     Ps Player Name            SL  FIT  LVL
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gk Facundo Aguilar        15    2   17     Gk Kuan-Yin Sun            9    2   11
Sw Sean Moore             18   -1   17     Sw Sean Peverell          15    2   17
Df Marius Hagen           13    2   15     Df Reece Hutchinson       13    2   15
Df Artur Vorobyov          9    2   11     Df Samuel Bogaerts        13    2   15
Df Emile Wright            5    2    7     Df Mohamed Cherkaoui       9    2   11
Mf Kieran Warren          17   -1   16     Df Benjamin Bell           4    2    6
Mf Jayden Campbell        10    2   12     Mf Lewis Young            14    2   16
Fw Rafael Souza           17    2   19     Mf Emile Bateman           9    2   11
Fw Luke White             16    1   17     Mf Mohamed Durieux         4    2    6
Fw Jared Brown            14    2   16     Fw Noah Carroll            9    2   11
Fw Mark Scott             14    2   16     Fw Harley Morrissey        4    2    6

      Gk Sw Df Mf Fw   A R E A  T O T A L S    Gk Sw Df Mf Fw
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
      17 17 33 28 68        ROSTER TOTALS      11 17 47 33 17    
       0  0  0  0  0          HARDNESS          0  0  0  1  0    
       0  0  0  0  9       HOME ADVANTAGE       0  0  0  0  0    
       2  0  0  0  0  GREAT PERFORMANCE POINTS  0  0  0  0  0    
       0  0  0  0  0        PLAY FOR DRAW       0  0  7  0  0    
=======================================================================
      19 17 33 28 77         T O T A L S       11 17 54 34 17    

============================================================================
============================================================================
B  O  O  K  I  N  G  S

Each player is next given a chance for a yellow/red card.  The first
number listed is the chance for the player to get the yellow/red
card while the second number shows the random number drawn.  If the 
random number is less than or equal to the player's yellow/red card 
chance then the player is sent off.  Note that the chances are as follows:
	- Booking: 1.5 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness))
	- Red Card: 0.25 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness)))

If a player is booked we immediately draw a second number to check
for a 'second yellow' (red card chance) resulting in a sending off.
If a player is not booked we draw a red card chance to see if the player
was given a straight red card.  Note that the aforementioned formula
differs for a Gk where the formula uses the hardness points added to
your Gk area and NOT the team hardness points.

*******  PRESTON NORTH END FC YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
   - Team Hardness = 0
   - Gk   Hardness = 0

Gk Facundo Aguilar: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 24.38 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 29.32 (no red card)

Sw Sean Moore: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 51.77 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 75.01 (no red card)

Df Marius Hagen: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 79.45 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 22.85 (no red card)

Df Artur Vorobyov: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 98.38 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 71.07 (no red card)

Df Emile Wright: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 44.49 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 58.28 (no red card)

Mf Kieran Warren: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 68.49 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 20.91 (no red card)

Mf Jayden Campbell: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 79.41 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 8.21 (no red card)

Fw Rafael Souza: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 77.97 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 69.82 (no red card)

Fw Luke White: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 90.67 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 80.78 (no red card)

Fw Jared Brown: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 56.61 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 67.61 (no red card)

Fw Mark Scott: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 87.63 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 78.24 (no red card)

*******  CARLISLE UNITED YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
   - Team Hardness = 1
   - Gk   Hardness = 0

Gk Kuan-Yin Sun: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 23.35 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 75.76 (no red card)

Sw Sean Peverell: Chance of booking = 6.75% | Random number = 21.28 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.12% | Random number = 82.45 (no red card)

Df Reece Hutchinson: Chance of booking = 6.75% | Random number = 29.52 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.12% | Random number = 8.32 (no red card)

Df Samuel Bogaerts: Chance of booking = 6.75% | Random number = 5.87 (BOOKED!) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.12% | Random number = 50.09 (no second yellow)

Df Mohamed Cherkaoui: Chance of booking = 6.75% | Random number = 13.18 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.12% | Random number = 4.45 (no red card)

Df Benjamin Bell: Chance of booking = 6.75% | Random number = 37.31 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.12% | Random number = 48.0 (no red card)

Mf Lewis Young: Chance of booking = 6.75% | Random number = 54.29 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.12% | Random number = 87.96 (no red card)

Mf Emile Bateman: Chance of booking = 6.75% | Random number = 21.25 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.12% | Random number = 44.47 (no red card)

Mf Mohamed Durieux: Chance of booking = 6.75% | Random number = 37.53 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.12% | Random number = 95.79 (no red card)

Fw Noah Carroll: Chance of booking = 6.75% | Random number = 36.51 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.12% | Random number = 8.71 (no red card)

Fw Harley Morrissey: Chance of booking = 6.75% | Random number = 69.01 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.12% | Random number = 33.89 (no red card)
============================================================================
============================================================================
I  N  J  U  R  I  E  S

A major consequence of hardness is that your opponents get injured. 
For each player the chance of injury is:   
  ((your teamís hardness * .25) + (opponentís hardness * .75) + 2.5)%.
    For example if your team has a hardness of 8 and the opposition has a hardness of 4,
    the chance of injury for each player would be: 2 + 3 + 2.5 or 7.5%.

The chance is halved for the opposition Gk. A player plays at half 
his normal level (skill plus fitness) in the match in which he is injured.

Injured players lose fitness as a result, the amount of fitness lost being
shown on the game report in brackets. There is a 30% chance of no fitness loss,
15% chance of 1 level fitness lost, 15% of 2 levels, and a 10% chance
of each of 3,4,5, or 6 fitness levels being lost. 
This fitness loss (if any) takes place at the end of the session, for 
reasons of simplicity. Should a player be injured twice or
more in a session, only the most severe injury will apply.


*******  PRESTON NORTH END FC CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
   - Preston North End FC Team Hardness = 0
   - Carlisle United Team Hardness = 1
   - All (except Gk) chance of injury = 3.25%
   - Gk chance of injury = 1.62%
Gk Facundo Aguilar: Chance of injury = 1.62% | Random number = 46.28 (no injury) 
Sw Sean Moore: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 83.26 (no injury) 
Df Marius Hagen: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 56.25 (no injury) 
Df Artur Vorobyov: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 46.24 (no injury) 
Df Emile Wright: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 83.51 (no injury) 
Mf Kieran Warren: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 90.91 (no injury) 
Mf Jayden Campbell: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 36.86 (no injury) 
Fw Rafael Souza: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 67.28 (no injury) 
Fw Luke White: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 40.69 (no injury) 
Fw Jared Brown: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 52.78 (no injury) 
Fw Mark Scott: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 33.19 (no injury) 

*******  CARLISLE UNITED CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
   - Carlisle United Team Hardness = 1
   - Preston North End FC Team Hardness = 0
   - All (except Gk) chance of injury = 2.75%
   - Gk chance of injury = 1.37%
Gk Kuan-Yin Sun: Chance of injury = 1.37% | Random number = 39.76 (no injury) 
Sw Sean Peverell: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 0.7 (INJURED!) 
      Targeted fitness lost = 0
      Sean Peverell is being assisted by the Physio and appears to be just fine.
Df Reece Hutchinson: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 27.52 (no injury) 
Df Samuel Bogaerts: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 25.15 (no injury) 
Df Mohamed Cherkaoui: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 17.15 (no injury) 
Df Benjamin Bell: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 67.76 (no injury) 
Mf Lewis Young: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 44.83 (no injury) 
Mf Emile Bateman: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 87.25 (no injury) 
Mf Mohamed Durieux: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 17.06 (no injury) 
Fw Noah Carroll: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 52.45 (no injury) 
Fw Harley Morrissey: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 4.91 (no injury) 
============================================================================
============================================================================
P  E  N  A  L  T  Y     K  I  C  K  S

There is a 10% chance of conceding a penalty for every hardness point used.
Each 10% chance is separate, so a team could concede as many penalties as it plays
hardness points. If no hardness is used, there is still a 5% penalty chance. 
The chance of a penalty being scored is: 
  50 + (4 x penalty takers skill) - (2 x Gk skill)  %    (to a maximum 95%)

*******  CARLISLE UNITED CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
   - Team Hardness: 1; (1 10% chance of yielding a PK)
   - PK Taker: Kieran Warren SL 17
   - Defending Gk: Kuan-Yin Sun SL 9

1: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 97 (no penalty kick)

*******  PRESTON NORTH END FC CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
   - Team Hardness: 0; (1 5% chance of yielding a PK)
   - PK Taker: Lewis Young SL 14
   - Defending Gk: Facundo Aguilar SL 15

     intRndPk = 66
1: Chance of PK occurring = 5% | Random number = 66 (no penalty kick)
============================================================================
============================================================================
A  T  T  A  C  K  I  N  G      C  H  A  N  C  E  S      &      S  H  O  T  S

  (i)   If team A's Fw area total is greater than team B's Df area total, 
        then A earns a number of attacks equal to the difference.
        Note: A Sw  does NOT add his levels to the Df in this league! 

  (ii)  The team with the highest Mf area total gets attacks equal to half
        the difference.

  (iii) If team A's Df area total is greater than team B's Fw total, then  
        team A earns a number of attacks equal to one fifth of the difference.
        If team A is playing a sweeper behind the defence, this rises to one 
        third of the difference.  All fractions of attacks are rounded up, 
        and then each of the attacks is treated as follows to see how many 
        produce shots, then goals: 

  (iv)  Attacks have first to beat the Sw (if playing!).  For each attack,
        there is a percentage chance of it being stopped equal to:
              30 + (Sw level x 2) % 
        (eg a level 10 Sw stops 30+10x2=50% of attacks.) Attacks passing the 
        Sw become shots.

  (v)   Each shot has a 35% chance of being off-target. If a side has scored
        2 goals this rises to 40%, then by a further 5% after each goal scored,
        to a maximum of 75%. This is to curb ridiculous scorelines (with luck!)

  (vi)  Finally, on-target shots come up against the  Gk. This is similar to 
        the Sw test, but the percentage is:
        40 + (Gk level x 2.25) % 

  Notes: If the defense is playing offside trap then the offensive team has
         their Fw attacks cut in half and theor Mf attacks doubled.

         A team choosing to PFD has 7 extra levels to split between Sw, 
         Df and Mf areas, but their attacks for each area will be halved 
         (round up fractions).

*******  PRESTON NORTH END FC ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
  AREA TOTALS             GK  Sw  Df  Mf  Fw
  -------------------------------------------
  Preston North End FC     19  17  33  28  77
  Carlisle United          11  17  54  34  17

Preston North End FC Fw Attacks = 23 (77 - 54); result rounded up
Preston North End FC Mf Attacks = 0 ((28 - 34) / 2;  rounded up)
Preston North End FC Df Attacks = 6 ((33 - 17) / 3); result rounded up
Preston North End FC Total Attacks = 29

1: Attack for Df Marius Hagen
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 64% | Random number = 22 (Sw stopped attack) 
2: Attack for Df Artur Vorobyov
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 64% | Random number = 65 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 88 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 64.75% | Random number = 86.0 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 
3: Attack for Df Marius Hagen
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 64% | Random number = 24 (Sw stopped attack) 
4: Attack for Df Marius Hagen
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 64% | Random number = 8 (Sw stopped attack) 
5: Attack for Df Emile Wright
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 64% | Random number = 91 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 40 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 64.75% | Random number = 55.26 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
6: Attack for Df Marius Hagen
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 64% | Random number = 63 (Sw stopped attack) 
7: Attack for Fw Jared Brown
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 64% | Random number = 40 (Sw stopped attack) 
8: Attack for Fw Luke White
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 64% | Random number = 5 (Sw stopped attack) 
9: Attack for Fw Rafael Souza
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 64% | Random number = 99 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 41 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 64.75% | Random number = 97.81 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 
10: Attack for Fw Rafael Souza
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 64% | Random number = 93 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 42 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 64.75% | Random number = 74.43 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 
11: Attack for Fw Mark Scott
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 64% | Random number = 88 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 45% | Random number = 21 (Shot Off Target) 
12: Attack for Fw Luke White
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 64% | Random number = 27 (Sw stopped attack) 
13: Attack for Fw Jared Brown
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 64% | Random number = 78 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 45% | Random number = 11 (Shot Off Target) 
14: Attack for Fw Jared Brown
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 64% | Random number = 17 (Sw stopped attack) 
15: Attack for Fw Mark Scott
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 64% | Random number = 27 (Sw stopped attack) 
16: Attack for Fw Rafael Souza
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 64% | Random number = 85 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 45% | Random number = 18 (Shot Off Target) 
17: Attack for Fw Luke White
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 64% | Random number = 5 (Sw stopped attack) 
18: Attack for Fw Rafael Souza
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 64% | Random number = 47 (Sw stopped attack) 
19: Attack for Fw Rafael Souza
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 64% | Random number = 2 (Sw stopped attack) 
20: Attack for Fw Rafael Souza
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 64% | Random number = 69 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 45% | Random number = 70 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 64.75% | Random number = 94.56 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 
21: Attack for Fw Jared Brown
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 64% | Random number = 34 (Sw stopped attack) 
22: Attack for Fw Mark Scott
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 64% | Random number = 2 (Sw stopped attack) 
23: Attack for Fw Jared Brown
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 64% | Random number = 94 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 50% | Random number = 72 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 64.75% | Random number = 44.93 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
24: Attack for Fw Rafael Souza
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 64% | Random number = 84 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 50% | Random number = 10 (Shot Off Target) 
25: Attack for Fw Jared Brown
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 64% | Random number = 24 (Sw stopped attack) 
26: Attack for Fw Jared Brown
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 64% | Random number = 4 (Sw stopped attack) 
27: Attack for Fw Jared Brown
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 64% | Random number = 75 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 50% | Random number = 39 (Shot Off Target) 
28: Attack for Fw Jared Brown
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 64% | Random number = 74 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 50% | Random number = 47 (Shot Off Target) 
29: Attack for Fw Luke White
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 64% | Random number = 89 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 50% | Random number = 9 (Shot Off Target) 

*******  CARLISLE UNITED ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
  AREA TOTALS             GK  Sw  Df  Mf  Fw
  -------------------------------------------
  Carlisle United          11  17  54  34  17
  Preston North End FC     19  17  33  28  77

Carlisle United is Playing For A Draw!
Carlisle United Fw Attacks = 0 (17 - 33)
Carlisle United Mf Attacks = 2 ((34 - 28) / 2)  * 0.5 (Play For Draw Multiplier); result rounded up
Carlisle United Df Attacks = 0 ((54 - 77) / 3;  rounded up)
Carlisle United Total Attacks = 2

1: Attack for Mf Emile Bateman
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 64% | Random number = 51 (Sw stopped attack) 
2: Attack for Mf Mohamed Durieux
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 64% | Random number = 84 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 6 (Shot Off Target) 
===============================================
     F  I  N  A  L         S  C  O  R  E
PRESTON NORTH END FC 4  -  CARLISLE UNITED 0
 
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