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Watford
James Tucker
 
Swansea City AFC
Roy Rolsten
 
 
League Round 17
 
 
 
 

S  T  A  R  T  I  N  G      L  I  N  E  U  P  S

WATFORD                                    SWANSEA CITY AFC

Ps Player Name            SL  FIT  LVL     Ps Player Name            SL  FIT  LVL
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gk Ollie Baker            15    2   17     Gk Laurence James         16    2   18
Sw Adam Wright            16    0   16     Sw Oscar Ford             12    2   14
Df Max Beckham            14    1   15     Df Brandon McAdam         13    2   15
Df Derek Fox              13    1   14     Df Kristian Hagen         11    2   13
Mf Park Yáng               9    2   11     Df Jonas Zimmermann       10    2   12
Mf Wes Barmby              4    2    6     Mf Douglas Carvalho       14    2   16
Fw Gregory Edwards        15    1   16     Mf Ben Neuville           14    2   16
Fw Luís Silva             15    1   16     Mf William Martin          9    2   11
Fw Thomas Fergusen         9    2   11     Mf Lilian Menard           9    1   10
Fw Ibrahim Bennani         9    2   11     Fw Luis Guerrero          14    2   16
Fw Fionn Quinn             5    2    7     Fw Elliot Baker           12    2   14

      Gk Sw Df Mf Fw   A R E A  T O T A L S    Gk Sw Df Mf Fw
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
      17 16 29 17 61        ROSTER TOTALS      18 14 40 53 30    
       0  0  0  1  0          HARDNESS          0  0  0  0  0    
       0  0  6  3  0       HOME ADVANTAGE       0  0  0  0  0    
       0  0  0  0  0  GREAT PERFORMANCE POINTS  2  0  0  0  0    
       0  0  0  0  0        PLAY FOR DRAW       0  0  0  0  0    
=======================================================================
      17 16 35 21 61         T O T A L S       20 14 40 53 30    

============================================================================
============================================================================
B  O  O  K  I  N  G  S

Each player is next given a chance for a yellow/red card.  The first
number listed is the chance for the player to get the yellow/red
card while the second number shows the random number drawn.  If the 
random number is less than or equal to the player's yellow/red card 
chance then the player is sent off.  Note that the chances are as follows:
	- Booking: 1.5 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness))
	- Red Card: 0.25 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness)))

If a player is booked we immediately draw a second number to check
for a 'second yellow' (red card chance) resulting in a sending off.
If a player is not booked we draw a red card chance to see if the player
was given a straight red card.  Note that the aforementioned formula
differs for a Gk where the formula uses the hardness points added to
your Gk area and NOT the team hardness points.

*******  WATFORD YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
   - Team Hardness = 1
   - Gk   Hardness = 0

Gk Ollie Baker: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 86.67 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 53.75 (no red card)

Sw Adam Wright: Chance of booking = 6.75% | Random number = 3.46 (BOOKED!) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.12% | Random number = 13.4 (no second yellow)

Df Max Beckham: Chance of booking = 6.75% | Random number = 19.9 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.12% | Random number = 80.5 (no red card)

Df Derek Fox: Chance of booking = 6.75% | Random number = 31.29 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.12% | Random number = 56.24 (no red card)

Mf Park Yáng: Chance of booking = 6.75% | Random number = 52.07 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.12% | Random number = 99.23 (no red card)

Mf Wes Barmby: Chance of booking = 6.75% | Random number = 28.75 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.12% | Random number = 83.19 (no red card)

Fw Gregory Edwards: Chance of booking = 6.75% | Random number = 65.94 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.12% | Random number = 31.31 (no red card)

Fw Luís Silva: Chance of booking = 6.75% | Random number = 19.89 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.12% | Random number = 86.42 (no red card)

Fw Thomas Fergusen: Chance of booking = 6.75% | Random number = 86.35 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.12% | Random number = 17.12 (no red card)

Fw Ibrahim Bennani: Chance of booking = 6.75% | Random number = 20.74 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.12% | Random number = 3.36 (no red card)

Fw Fionn Quinn: Chance of booking = 6.75% | Random number = 79.8 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.12% | Random number = 20.76 (no red card)

*******  SWANSEA CITY AFC YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
   - Team Hardness = 0
   - Gk   Hardness = 0

Gk Laurence James: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 57.65 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 5.02 (no red card)

Sw Oscar Ford: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 57.43 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 91.8 (no red card)

Df Brandon McAdam: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 12.5 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 66.25 (no red card)

Df Kristian Hagen: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 21.7 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 37.16 (no red card)

Df Jonas Zimmermann: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 38.5 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 80.36 (no red card)

Mf Douglas Carvalho: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 18.29 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 31.84 (no red card)

Mf Ben Neuville: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 27.62 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 64.37 (no red card)

Mf William Martin: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 30.16 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 68.05 (no red card)

Mf Lilian Menard: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 3.35 (BOOKED!) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 27.53 (no second yellow)

Fw Luis Guerrero: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 82.61 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 82.61 (no red card)

Fw Elliot Baker: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 10.07 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 43.52 (no red card)
============================================================================
============================================================================
I  N  J  U  R  I  E  S

A major consequence of hardness is that your opponents get injured. 
For each player the chance of injury is:   
  ((your team’s hardness * .25) + (opponent’s hardness * .75) + 2.5)%.
    For example if your team has a hardness of 8 and the opposition has a hardness of 4,
    the chance of injury for each player would be: 2 + 3 + 2.5 or 7.5%.

The chance is halved for the opposition Gk. A player plays at half 
his normal level (skill plus fitness) in the match in which he is injured.

Injured players lose fitness as a result, the amount of fitness lost being
shown on the game report in brackets. There is a 30% chance of no fitness loss,
15% chance of 1 level fitness lost, 15% of 2 levels, and a 10% chance
of each of 3,4,5, or 6 fitness levels being lost. 
This fitness loss (if any) takes place at the end of the session, for 
reasons of simplicity. Should a player be injured twice or
more in a session, only the most severe injury will apply.


*******  WATFORD CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
   - Watford Team Hardness = 1
   - Swansea City AFC Team Hardness = 0
   - All (except Gk) chance of injury = 2.75%
   - Gk chance of injury = 1.37%
Gk Ollie Baker: Chance of injury = 1.37% | Random number = 20.17 (no injury) 
Sw Adam Wright: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 9.67 (no injury) 
Df Max Beckham: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 21.82 (no injury) 
Df Derek Fox: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 79.81 (no injury) 
Mf Park Yáng: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 22.24 (no injury) 
Mf Wes Barmby: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 57.77 (no injury) 
Fw Gregory Edwards: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 1.5 (INJURED!) 
      Targeted fitness lost = 1
      Gregory Edwards is being assisted by the Physio.  He won't lose any fitness points, but he'll have to come off.
      Gregory Edwards new match skill level =  8
      Gregory Edwards new match total level =  9
Fw Luís Silva: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 55.15 (no injury) 
Fw Thomas Fergusen: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 33.68 (no injury) 
Fw Ibrahim Bennani: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 24.56 (no injury) 
Fw Fionn Quinn: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 35.15 (no injury) 

*******  SWANSEA CITY AFC CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
   - Swansea City AFC Team Hardness = 0
   - Watford Team Hardness = 1
   - All (except Gk) chance of injury = 3.25%
   - Gk chance of injury = 1.62%
Gk Laurence James: Chance of injury = 1.62% | Random number = 80.28 (no injury) 
Sw Oscar Ford: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 69.63 (no injury) 
Df Brandon McAdam: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 55.85 (no injury) 
Df Kristian Hagen: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 58.19 (no injury) 
Df Jonas Zimmermann: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 25.0 (no injury) 
Mf Douglas Carvalho: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 26.68 (no injury) 
Mf Ben Neuville: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 6.99 (no injury) 
Mf William Martin: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 7.04 (no injury) 
Mf Lilian Menard: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 62.15 (no injury) 
Fw Luis Guerrero: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 42.25 (no injury) 
Fw Elliot Baker: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 47.75 (no injury) 
============================================================================
============================================================================
P  E  N  A  L  T  Y     K  I  C  K  S

There is a 10% chance of conceding a penalty for every hardness point used.
Each 10% chance is separate, so a team could concede as many penalties as it plays
hardness points. If no hardness is used, there is still a 5% penalty chance. 
The chance of a penalty being scored is: 
  50 + (4 x penalty takers skill) - (2 x Gk skill)  %    (to a maximum 95%)

*******  SWANSEA CITY AFC CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
   - Team Hardness: 0; (1 5% chance of yielding a PK)
   - PK Taker: Luís Silva SL 15
   - Defending Gk: Laurence James SL 16

     intRndPk = 60
1: Chance of PK occurring = 5% | Random number = 60 (no penalty kick)

*******  WATFORD CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
   - Team Hardness: 1; (1 10% chance of yielding a PK)
   - PK Taker: Douglas Carvalho SL 14
   - Defending Gk: Ollie Baker SL 15

1: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 63 (no penalty kick)
============================================================================
============================================================================
A  T  T  A  C  K  I  N  G      C  H  A  N  C  E  S      &      S  H  O  T  S

  (i)   If team A's Fw area total is greater than team B's Df area total, 
        then A earns a number of attacks equal to the difference.
        Note: A Sw  does NOT add his levels to the Df in this league! 

  (ii)  The team with the highest Mf area total gets attacks equal to half
        the difference.

  (iii) If team A's Df area total is greater than team B's Fw total, then  
        team A earns a number of attacks equal to one fifth of the difference.
        If team A is playing a sweeper behind the defence, this rises to one 
        third of the difference.  All fractions of attacks are rounded up, 
        and then each of the attacks is treated as follows to see how many 
        produce shots, then goals: 

  (iv)  Attacks have first to beat the Sw (if playing!).  For each attack,
        there is a percentage chance of it being stopped equal to:
              30 + (Sw level x 2) % 
        (eg a level 10 Sw stops 30+10x2=50% of attacks.) Attacks passing the 
        Sw become shots.

  (v)   Each shot has a 35% chance of being off-target. If a side has scored
        2 goals this rises to 40%, then by a further 5% after each goal scored,
        to a maximum of 75%. This is to curb ridiculous scorelines (with luck!)

  (vi)  Finally, on-target shots come up against the  Gk. This is similar to 
        the Sw test, but the percentage is:
        40 + (Gk level x 2.25) % 

  Notes: If the defense is playing offside trap then the offensive team has
         their Fw attacks cut in half and theor Mf attacks doubled.

         A team choosing to PFD has 7 extra levels to split between Sw, 
         Df and Mf areas, but their attacks for each area will be halved 
         (round up fractions).

*******  WATFORD ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
  AREA TOTALS             GK  Sw  Df  Mf  Fw
  -------------------------------------------
  Watford                  17  16  35  21  54
  Swansea City AFC         20  14  40  53  30

Watford Fw Attacks = 14 (54 - 40); result rounded up
Watford Mf Attacks = 0 ((21 - 53) / 2;  rounded up)
Watford Df Attacks = 2 ((35 - 30) / 3); result rounded up
Watford Total Attacks = 16

1: Attack for Df Max Beckham
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 58% | Random number = 11 (Sw stopped attack) 
2: Attack for Df Derek Fox
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 58% | Random number = 11 (Sw stopped attack) 
3: Attack for Fw Luís Silva
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 58% | Random number = 82 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 90 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 85.0% | Random number = 53.11 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
4: Attack for Fw Thomas Fergusen
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 58% | Random number = 13 (Sw stopped attack) 
5: Attack for Fw Thomas Fergusen
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 58% | Random number = 90 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 89 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 85.0% | Random number = 26.36 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
6: Attack for Fw Gregory Edwards
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 58% | Random number = 13 (Sw stopped attack) 
7: Attack for Fw Gregory Edwards
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 58% | Random number = 11 (Sw stopped attack) 
8: Attack for Fw Gregory Edwards
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 58% | Random number = 31 (Sw stopped attack) 
9: Attack for Fw Thomas Fergusen
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 58% | Random number = 40 (Sw stopped attack) 
10: Attack for Fw Luís Silva
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 58% | Random number = 83 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 34 (Shot Off Target) 
11: Attack for Fw Thomas Fergusen
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 58% | Random number = 3 (Sw stopped attack) 
12: Attack for Fw Luís Silva
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 58% | Random number = 38 (Sw stopped attack) 
13: Attack for Fw Gregory Edwards
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 58% | Random number = 44 (Sw stopped attack) 
14: Attack for Fw Gregory Edwards
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 58% | Random number = 86 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 21 (Shot Off Target) 
15: Attack for Fw Thomas Fergusen
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 58% | Random number = 8 (Sw stopped attack) 
16: Attack for Fw Ibrahim Bennani
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 58% | Random number = 59 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 53 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 85.0% | Random number = 6.4 (Shot Saved by Gk) 

*******  SWANSEA CITY AFC ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
  AREA TOTALS             GK  Sw  Df  Mf  Fw
  -------------------------------------------
  Swansea City AFC         20  14  40  53  30
  Watford                  17  16  35  21  54

Swansea City AFC Fw Attacks = 0 (30 - 35)
Swansea City AFC Mf Attacks = 16 ((53 - 21) / 2) ; result rounded up
Swansea City AFC Df Attacks = 0 ((40 - 54) / 3;  rounded up)
Swansea City AFC Total Attacks = 16

1: Attack for Mf William Martin
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 29 (Sw stopped attack) 
2: Attack for Mf Ben Neuville
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 66 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 22 (Shot Off Target) 
3: Attack for Mf Lilian Menard
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 40 (Sw stopped attack) 
4: Attack for Mf Douglas Carvalho
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 57 (Sw stopped attack) 
5: Attack for Mf Lilian Menard
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 65 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 2 (Shot Off Target) 
6: Attack for Mf Ben Neuville
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 79 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 71 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 78.25% | Random number = 97.7 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 
7: Attack for Mf Ben Neuville
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 8 (Sw stopped attack) 
8: Attack for Mf Douglas Carvalho
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 65 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 96 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 78.25% | Random number = 43.67 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
9: Attack for Mf Ben Neuville
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 28 (Sw stopped attack) 
10: Attack for Mf Douglas Carvalho
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 64 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 16 (Shot Off Target) 
11: Attack for Mf William Martin
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 4 (Sw stopped attack) 
12: Attack for Mf Ben Neuville
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 3 (Sw stopped attack) 
13: Attack for Mf Douglas Carvalho
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 77 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 11 (Shot Off Target) 
14: Attack for Mf Ben Neuville
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 34 (Sw stopped attack) 
15: Attack for Mf William Martin
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 52 (Sw stopped attack) 
16: Attack for Mf Ben Neuville
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 20 (Sw stopped attack) 
===============================================
     F  I  N  A  L         S  C  O  R  E
WATFORD 0  -  SWANSEA CITY AFC 1
 
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