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Preston North End FC
Ian Lindsay
 
Carlisle United
Dave Gittins
 
 
League Round 13
 
 
 
 

S  T  A  R  T  I  N  G      L  I  N  E  U  P  S

PRESTON NORTH END FC                       CARLISLE UNITED

Ps Player Name            SL  FIT  LVL     Ps Player Name            SL  FIT  LVL
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gk Rhys MacDonald         15    2   17     Gk Billy Rooney           15    2   17
Sw Sean Moore             18    2   20     Sw Sean Peverell           8    2   10
Df Marius Hagen           14    2   16     Df Samuel Bogaerts        15    1   16
Df Carleton Milner         9    2   11     Df Angelo Tosato          13    2   15
Mf Kieran Warren          19    0   19     Df Reece Hutchinson        8    2   10
Mf Jayden Campbell         8    2   10     Mf Finn Brown             15    2   17
Fw Rafael Souza           13    2   15     Mf Lewis Young             8    2   10
Fw Ellis McAllister       13    2   15     Fw Nigel Nicholson        15    1   16
Fw Jared Brown             9    2   11     Fw Leon Stevens           16    2   18
Fw Mark Scott              9    2   11     Fw Tobias Mayer           10    0   10
Fw Harvey Cooper           4    2    6     Fw Kyle Bruce              8    1    9

      Gk Sw Df Mf Fw   A R E A  T O T A L S    Gk Sw Df Mf Fw
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
      17 20 27 29 58        ROSTER TOTALS      17 10 41 27 53    
       0  0  0  0  0          HARDNESS          0  0  0  1  0    
       0  0  0  0  9       HOME ADVANTAGE       0  0  0  0  0    
       0  0  0  0  0  GREAT PERFORMANCE POINTS  0  3  0  0  0    
       0  0  0  0  0        PLAY FOR DRAW       0  0  0  0  0    
=======================================================================
      17 20 27 29 67         T O T A L S       17 13 41 28 53    

============================================================================
============================================================================
B  O  O  K  I  N  G  S

Each player is next given a chance for a yellow/red card.  The first
number listed is the chance for the player to get the yellow/red
card while the second number shows the random number drawn.  If the 
random number is less than or equal to the player's yellow/red card 
chance then the player is sent off.  Note that the chances are as follows:
	- Booking: 1.5 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness))
	- Red Card: 0.25 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness)))

If a player is booked we immediately draw a second number to check
for a 'second yellow' (red card chance) resulting in a sending off.
If a player is not booked we draw a red card chance to see if the player
was given a straight red card.  Note that the aforementioned formula
differs for a Gk where the formula uses the hardness points added to
your Gk area and NOT the team hardness points.

*******  PRESTON NORTH END FC YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
   - Team Hardness = 0
   - Gk   Hardness = 0

Gk Rhys MacDonald: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 93.7 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 96.66 (no red card)

Sw Sean Moore: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 40.55 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 58.13 (no red card)

Df Marius Hagen: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 48.86 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 8.19 (no red card)

Df Carleton Milner: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 5.11 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 38.79 (no red card)

Mf Kieran Warren: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 6.34 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 68.23 (no red card)

Mf Jayden Campbell: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 39.86 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 27.9 (no red card)

Fw Rafael Souza: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 53.73 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 45.53 (no red card)

Fw Ellis McAllister: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 34.8 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 18.33 (no red card)

Fw Jared Brown: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 52.1 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 86.41 (no red card)

Fw Mark Scott: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 61.01 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 33.17 (no red card)

Fw Harvey Cooper: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 49.0 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 69.14 (no red card)

*******  CARLISLE UNITED YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
   - Team Hardness = 1
   - Gk   Hardness = 0

Gk Billy Rooney: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 51.91 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 76.11 (no red card)

Sw Sean Peverell: Chance of booking = 6.75% | Random number = 2.31 (BOOKED!) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.12% | Random number = 42.72 (no second yellow)

Df Samuel Bogaerts: Chance of booking = 6.75% | Random number = 37.07 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.12% | Random number = 73.26 (no red card)

Df Angelo Tosato: Chance of booking = 6.75% | Random number = 73.05 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.12% | Random number = 64.28 (no red card)

Df Reece Hutchinson: Chance of booking = 6.75% | Random number = 15.83 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.12% | Random number = 52.15 (no red card)

Mf Finn Brown: Chance of booking = 6.75% | Random number = 27.2 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.12% | Random number = 90.86 (no red card)

Mf Lewis Young: Chance of booking = 6.75% | Random number = 69.14 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.12% | Random number = 56.55 (no red card)

Fw Nigel Nicholson: Chance of booking = 6.75% | Random number = 73.09 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.12% | Random number = 74.54 (no red card)

Fw Leon Stevens: Chance of booking = 6.75% | Random number = 27.76 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.12% | Random number = 48.8 (no red card)

Fw Tobias Mayer: Chance of booking = 6.75% | Random number = 32.69 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.12% | Random number = 43.5 (no red card)

Fw Kyle Bruce: Chance of booking = 6.75% | Random number = 50.18 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.12% | Random number = 11.04 (no red card)
============================================================================
============================================================================
I  N  J  U  R  I  E  S

A major consequence of hardness is that your opponents get injured. 
For each player the chance of injury is:   
  ((your teamís hardness * .25) + (opponentís hardness * .75) + 2.5)%.
    For example if your team has a hardness of 8 and the opposition has a hardness of 4,
    the chance of injury for each player would be: 2 + 3 + 2.5 or 7.5%.

The chance is halved for the opposition Gk. A player plays at half 
his normal level (skill plus fitness) in the match in which he is injured.

Injured players lose fitness as a result, the amount of fitness lost being
shown on the game report in brackets. There is a 30% chance of no fitness loss,
15% chance of 1 level fitness lost, 15% of 2 levels, and a 10% chance
of each of 3,4,5, or 6 fitness levels being lost. 
This fitness loss (if any) takes place at the end of the session, for 
reasons of simplicity. Should a player be injured twice or
more in a session, only the most severe injury will apply.


*******  PRESTON NORTH END FC CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
   - Preston North End FC Team Hardness = 0
   - Carlisle United Team Hardness = 1
   - All (except Gk) chance of injury = 3.25%
   - Gk chance of injury = 1.62%
Gk Rhys MacDonald: Chance of injury = 1.62% | Random number = 78.32 (no injury) 
Sw Sean Moore: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 79.46 (no injury) 
Df Marius Hagen: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 42.03 (no injury) 
Df Carleton Milner: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 36.84 (no injury) 
Mf Kieran Warren: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 90.97 (no injury) 
Mf Jayden Campbell: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 22.55 (no injury) 
Fw Rafael Souza: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 5.02 (no injury) 
Fw Ellis McAllister: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 67.39 (no injury) 
Fw Jared Brown: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 46.99 (no injury) 
Fw Mark Scott: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 60.69 (no injury) 
Fw Harvey Cooper: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 60.77 (no injury) 

*******  CARLISLE UNITED CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
   - Carlisle United Team Hardness = 1
   - Preston North End FC Team Hardness = 0
   - All (except Gk) chance of injury = 2.75%
   - Gk chance of injury = 1.37%
Gk Billy Rooney: Chance of injury = 1.37% | Random number = 99.29 (no injury) 
Sw Sean Peverell: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 76.48 (no injury) 
Df Samuel Bogaerts: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 82.66 (no injury) 
Df Angelo Tosato: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 35.62 (no injury) 
Df Reece Hutchinson: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 78.99 (no injury) 
Mf Finn Brown: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 44.34 (no injury) 
Mf Lewis Young: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 10.22 (no injury) 
Fw Nigel Nicholson: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 87.58 (no injury) 
Fw Leon Stevens: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 25.81 (no injury) 
Fw Tobias Mayer: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 41.08 (no injury) 
Fw Kyle Bruce: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 95.39 (no injury) 
============================================================================
============================================================================
P  E  N  A  L  T  Y     K  I  C  K  S

There is a 10% chance of conceding a penalty for every hardness point used.
Each 10% chance is separate, so a team could concede as many penalties as it plays
hardness points. If no hardness is used, there is still a 5% penalty chance. 
The chance of a penalty being scored is: 
  50 + (4 x penalty takers skill) - (2 x Gk skill)  %    (to a maximum 95%)

*******  CARLISLE UNITED CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
   - Team Hardness: 1; (1 10% chance of yielding a PK)
   - PK Taker: Kieran Warren SL 19
   - Defending Gk: Billy Rooney SL 15

1: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 89 (no penalty kick)

*******  PRESTON NORTH END FC CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
   - Team Hardness: 0; (1 5% chance of yielding a PK)
   - PK Taker: Leon Stevens SL 16
   - Defending Gk: Rhys MacDonald SL 15

     intRndPk = 7
1: Chance of PK occurring = 5% | Random number = 7 (no penalty kick)
============================================================================
============================================================================
A  T  T  A  C  K  I  N  G      C  H  A  N  C  E  S      &      S  H  O  T  S

  (i)   If team A's Fw area total is greater than team B's Df area total, 
        then A earns a number of attacks equal to the difference.
        Note: A Sw  does NOT add his levels to the Df in this league! 

  (ii)  The team with the highest Mf area total gets attacks equal to half
        the difference.

  (iii) If team A's Df area total is greater than team B's Fw total, then  
        team A earns a number of attacks equal to one fifth of the difference.
        If team A is playing a sweeper behind the defence, this rises to one 
        third of the difference.  All fractions of attacks are rounded up, 
        and then each of the attacks is treated as follows to see how many 
        produce shots, then goals: 

  (iv)  Attacks have first to beat the Sw (if playing!).  For each attack,
        there is a percentage chance of it being stopped equal to:
              30 + (Sw level x 2) % 
        (eg a level 10 Sw stops 30+10x2=50% of attacks.) Attacks passing the 
        Sw become shots.

  (v)   Each shot has a 35% chance of being off-target. If a side has scored
        2 goals this rises to 40%, then by a further 5% after each goal scored,
        to a maximum of 75%. This is to curb ridiculous scorelines (with luck!)

  (vi)  Finally, on-target shots come up against the  Gk. This is similar to 
        the Sw test, but the percentage is:
        40 + (Gk level x 2.25) % 

  Notes: If the defense is playing offside trap then the offensive team has
         their Fw attacks cut in half and theor Mf attacks doubled.

         A team choosing to PFD has 7 extra levels to split between Sw, 
         Df and Mf areas, but their attacks for each area will be halved 
         (round up fractions).

*******  PRESTON NORTH END FC ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
  AREA TOTALS             GK  Sw  Df  Mf  Fw
  -------------------------------------------
  Preston North End FC     17  20  27  29  67
  Carlisle United          17  13  41  28  53

Preston North End FC Fw Attacks = 26 (67 - 41); result rounded up
Preston North End FC Mf Attacks = 1 ((29 - 28) / 2) ; result rounded up
Preston North End FC Df Attacks = 0 ((27 - 53) / 3;  rounded up)
Preston North End FC Total Attacks = 27

1: Attack for Mf Kieran Warren
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 10 (Sw stopped attack) 
2: Attack for Fw Rafael Souza
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 23 (Sw stopped attack) 
3: Attack for Fw Rafael Souza
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 95 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 62 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 78.25% | Random number = 75.05 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
4: Attack for Fw Ellis McAllister
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 27 (Sw stopped attack) 
5: Attack for Fw Harvey Cooper
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 15 (Sw stopped attack) 
6: Attack for Fw Rafael Souza
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 29 (Sw stopped attack) 
7: Attack for Fw Mark Scott
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 58 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 23 (Shot Off Target) 
8: Attack for Fw Rafael Souza
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 35 (Sw stopped attack) 
9: Attack for Fw Ellis McAllister
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 24 (Sw stopped attack) 
10: Attack for Fw Jared Brown
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 33 (Sw stopped attack) 
11: Attack for Fw Mark Scott
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 68 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 55 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 78.25% | Random number = 85.72 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 
12: Attack for Fw Rafael Souza
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 87 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 82 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 78.25% | Random number = 74.12 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
13: Attack for Fw Ellis McAllister
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 53 (Sw stopped attack) 
14: Attack for Fw Ellis McAllister
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 9 (Sw stopped attack) 
15: Attack for Fw Mark Scott
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 9 (Sw stopped attack) 
16: Attack for Fw Ellis McAllister
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 39 (Sw stopped attack) 
17: Attack for Fw Jared Brown
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 4 (Sw stopped attack) 
18: Attack for Fw Ellis McAllister
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 74 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 5 (Shot Off Target) 
19: Attack for Fw Mark Scott
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 43 (Sw stopped attack) 
20: Attack for Fw Rafael Souza
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 34 (Sw stopped attack) 
21: Attack for Fw Rafael Souza
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 30 (Sw stopped attack) 
22: Attack for Fw Rafael Souza
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 30 (Sw stopped attack) 
23: Attack for Fw Harvey Cooper
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 86 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 5 (Shot Off Target) 
24: Attack for Fw Ellis McAllister
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 6 (Sw stopped attack) 
25: Attack for Fw Ellis McAllister
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 70 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 75 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 78.25% | Random number = 76.85 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
26: Attack for Fw Ellis McAllister
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 18 (Sw stopped attack) 
27: Attack for Fw Rafael Souza
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 16 (Sw stopped attack) 

*******  CARLISLE UNITED ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
  AREA TOTALS             GK  Sw  Df  Mf  Fw
  -------------------------------------------
  Carlisle United          17  13  41  28  53
  Preston North End FC     17  20  27  29  67

Carlisle United Fw Attacks = 26 (53 - 27); result rounded up
Carlisle United Mf Attacks = 0 ((28 - 29) / 2;  rounded up)
Carlisle United Df Attacks = 0 ((41 - 67) / 3;  rounded up)
Carlisle United Total Attacks = 26

1: Attack for Fw Tobias Mayer
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 70% | Random number = 23 (Sw stopped attack) 
2: Attack for Fw Kyle Bruce
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 70% | Random number = 85 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 69 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 78.25% | Random number = 85.36 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 
3: Attack for Fw Leon Stevens
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 70% | Random number = 23 (Sw stopped attack) 
4: Attack for Fw Leon Stevens
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 70% | Random number = 48 (Sw stopped attack) 
5: Attack for Fw Kyle Bruce
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 70% | Random number = 75 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 61 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 78.25% | Random number = 37.31 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
6: Attack for Fw Kyle Bruce
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 70% | Random number = 19 (Sw stopped attack) 
7: Attack for Fw Kyle Bruce
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 70% | Random number = 4 (Sw stopped attack) 
8: Attack for Fw Nigel Nicholson
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 70% | Random number = 42 (Sw stopped attack) 
9: Attack for Fw Leon Stevens
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 70% | Random number = 47 (Sw stopped attack) 
10: Attack for Fw Nigel Nicholson
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 70% | Random number = 47 (Sw stopped attack) 
11: Attack for Fw Tobias Mayer
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 70% | Random number = 94 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 77 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 78.25% | Random number = 15.58 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
12: Attack for Fw Leon Stevens
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 70% | Random number = 9 (Sw stopped attack) 
13: Attack for Fw Kyle Bruce
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 70% | Random number = 75 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 59 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 78.25% | Random number = 11.78 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
14: Attack for Fw Leon Stevens
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 70% | Random number = 98 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 96 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 78.25% | Random number = 43.32 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
15: Attack for Fw Leon Stevens
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 70% | Random number = 57 (Sw stopped attack) 
16: Attack for Fw Tobias Mayer
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 70% | Random number = 83 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 63 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 78.25% | Random number = 25.65 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
17: Attack for Fw Nigel Nicholson
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 70% | Random number = 94 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 87 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 78.25% | Random number = 98.38 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 
18: Attack for Fw Tobias Mayer
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 70% | Random number = 36 (Sw stopped attack) 
19: Attack for Fw Leon Stevens
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 70% | Random number = 96 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 95 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 78.25% | Random number = 87.23 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 
20: Attack for Fw Leon Stevens
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 70% | Random number = 61 (Sw stopped attack) 
21: Attack for Fw Nigel Nicholson
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 70% | Random number = 46 (Sw stopped attack) 
22: Attack for Fw Tobias Mayer
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 70% | Random number = 56 (Sw stopped attack) 
23: Attack for Fw Leon Stevens
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 70% | Random number = 86 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 45% | Random number = 31 (Shot Off Target) 
24: Attack for Fw Tobias Mayer
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 70% | Random number = 7 (Sw stopped attack) 
25: Attack for Fw Tobias Mayer
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 70% | Random number = 68 (Sw stopped attack) 
26: Attack for Fw Leon Stevens
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 70% | Random number = 96 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 45% | Random number = 23 (Shot Off Target) 
===============================================
     F  I  N  A  L         S  C  O  R  E
PRESTON NORTH END FC 1  -  CARLISLE UNITED 3
 
Match Notes
Carlisle really need to win this one to keep their title hopes alive, but formidable opposition tonight.
Vick (Weston-super-Mare AFC) 05/12 - 3:06 PM
The endless drilling of the players to shoot on target seems to have paid off, and has given us a rather fortunate victory.
Dave (Carlisle United) 05/13 - 8:38 AM
 
 
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