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Friday, May 25th, 2018 - 04:49:52 PM (gmt)
 
ball MSWL UNITED ① - Landing
 
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Tranmere Rovers
Alon Atie
 
Carlisle United
Dave Gittins
 
 
AP Cup Semifinals
 
 
 
 

S  T  A  R  T  I  N  G      L  I  N  E  U  P  S

TRANMERE ROVERS                            CARLISLE UNITED

Ps Player Name            SL  FIT  LVL     Ps Player Name            SL  FIT  LVL
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gk Matías Abreu           16    2   18     Gk Billy Rooney           15    2   17
Sw Pedro Muñoz            16    1   17     Sw Sean Peverell           8    2   10
Df Reidar Myklebust       14    2   16     Df Samuel Bogaerts        14    2   16
Df Pedro Castelo          10    2   12     Df Angelo Tosato          13    2   15
Mf Joe Taylor             13    0   13     Df Reece Hutchinson        8    2   10
Mf Kyle McAdam            12    2   14     Df Finley Williams         6    2    8
Fw Freddie Bunyan         16    2   18     Mf Freddie Dury           12    1   13
Fw Afonso Ribeiro         13    2   15     Mf Lewis Young             8    2   10
Fw Santiago Romero        16    2   18     Mf Noah Thomson            7    2    9
Fw Riley Matthews         10    1   11     Fw Nigel Nicholson        14    2   16
Fw Matty Chaffersey       10    2   12     Fw Kyle Bruce              8    1    9

      Gk Sw Df Mf Fw   A R E A  T O T A L S    Gk Sw Df Mf Fw
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
      18 17 28 27 74        ROSTER TOTALS      17 10 49 32 25    
       1  0  0  0  0          HARDNESS          0  0  0  0  0    
       0  0  2  0  7       HOME ADVANTAGE       0  0  0  0  0    
       2  0  0  0  0  GREAT PERFORMANCE POINTS  0  0  0  0  0    
       0  0  0  0  0        PLAY FOR DRAW       0  0  7  0  0    
=======================================================================
      21 17 30 27 81         T O T A L S       17 10 56 32 25    

============================================================================
============================================================================
B  O  O  K  I  N  G  S

Each player is next given a chance for a yellow/red card.  The first
number listed is the chance for the player to get the yellow/red
card while the second number shows the random number drawn.  If the 
random number is less than or equal to the player's yellow/red card 
chance then the player is sent off.  Note that the chances are as follows:
	- Booking: 1.5 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness))
	- Red Card: 0.25 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness)))

If a player is booked we immediately draw a second number to check
for a 'second yellow' (red card chance) resulting in a sending off.
If a player is not booked we draw a red card chance to see if the player
was given a straight red card.  Note that the aforementioned formula
differs for a Gk where the formula uses the hardness points added to
your Gk area and NOT the team hardness points.

*******  TRANMERE ROVERS YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
   - Team Hardness = 1
   - Gk   Hardness = 1

Gk Matías Abreu: Chance of booking = 6.75% | Random number = 95.2 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.125% | Random number = 49.02 (no red card)

Sw Pedro Muñoz: Chance of booking = 6.75% | Random number = 76.33 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.12% | Random number = 17.17 (no red card)

Df Reidar Myklebust: Chance of booking = 6.75% | Random number = 7.92 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.12% | Random number = 29.75 (no red card)

Df Pedro Castelo: Chance of booking = 6.75% | Random number = 53.24 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.12% | Random number = 98.5 (no red card)

Mf Joe Taylor: Chance of booking = 6.75% | Random number = 91.08 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.12% | Random number = 76.62 (no red card)

Mf Kyle McAdam: Chance of booking = 6.75% | Random number = 52.24 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.12% | Random number = 55.58 (no red card)

Fw Freddie Bunyan: Chance of booking = 6.75% | Random number = 99.58 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.12% | Random number = 4.68 (no red card)

Fw Afonso Ribeiro: Chance of booking = 6.75% | Random number = 90.83 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.12% | Random number = 17.92 (no red card)

Fw Santiago Romero: Chance of booking = 6.75% | Random number = 47.05 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.12% | Random number = 46.9 (no red card)

Fw Riley Matthews: Chance of booking = 6.75% | Random number = 80.17 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.12% | Random number = 82.19 (no red card)

Fw Matty Chaffersey: Chance of booking = 6.75% | Random number = 54.92 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.12% | Random number = 92.24 (no red card)

*******  CARLISLE UNITED YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
   - Team Hardness = 0
   - Gk   Hardness = 0

Gk Billy Rooney: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 96.98 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 23.58 (no red card)

Sw Sean Peverell: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 98.32 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 65.2 (no red card)

Df Samuel Bogaerts: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 46.85 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 52.62 (no red card)

Df Angelo Tosato: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 5.3 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 31.61 (no red card)

Df Reece Hutchinson: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 74.76 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 26.75 (no red card)

Df Finley Williams: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 76.37 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 93.35 (no red card)

Mf Freddie Dury: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 57.47 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 54.31 (no red card)

Mf Lewis Young: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 82.63 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 21.68 (no red card)

Mf Noah Thomson: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 18.69 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 4.99 (no red card)

Fw Nigel Nicholson: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 14.06 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 35.62 (no red card)

Fw Kyle Bruce: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 75.26 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 3.72 (no red card)
============================================================================
============================================================================
I  N  J  U  R  I  E  S

A major consequence of hardness is that your opponents get injured. 
For each player the chance of injury is:   
  ((your team’s hardness * .25) + (opponent’s hardness * .75) + 2.5)%.
    For example if your team has a hardness of 8 and the opposition has a hardness of 4,
    the chance of injury for each player would be: 2 + 3 + 2.5 or 7.5%.

The chance is halved for the opposition Gk. A player plays at half 
his normal level (skill plus fitness) in the match in which he is injured.

Injured players lose fitness as a result, the amount of fitness lost being
shown on the game report in brackets. There is a 30% chance of no fitness loss,
15% chance of 1 level fitness lost, 15% of 2 levels, and a 10% chance
of each of 3,4,5, or 6 fitness levels being lost. 
This fitness loss (if any) takes place at the end of the session, for 
reasons of simplicity. Should a player be injured twice or
more in a session, only the most severe injury will apply.


*******  TRANMERE ROVERS CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
   - Tranmere Rovers Team Hardness = 1
   - Carlisle United Team Hardness = 0
   - All (except Gk) chance of injury = 2.75%
   - Gk chance of injury = 1.37%
Gk Matías Abreu: Chance of injury = 1.37% | Random number = 15.91 (no injury) 
Sw Pedro Muñoz: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 62.15 (no injury) 
Df Reidar Myklebust: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 41.95 (no injury) 
Df Pedro Castelo: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 69.29 (no injury) 
Mf Joe Taylor: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 77.11 (no injury) 
Mf Kyle McAdam: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 19.69 (no injury) 
Fw Freddie Bunyan: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 5.1 (no injury) 
Fw Afonso Ribeiro: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 24.12 (no injury) 
Fw Santiago Romero: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 42.77 (no injury) 
Fw Riley Matthews: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 65.03 (no injury) 
Fw Matty Chaffersey: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 72.02 (no injury) 

*******  CARLISLE UNITED CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
   - Carlisle United Team Hardness = 0
   - Tranmere Rovers Team Hardness = 1
   - All (except Gk) chance of injury = 3.25%
   - Gk chance of injury = 1.62%
Gk Billy Rooney: Chance of injury = 1.62% | Random number = 81.79 (no injury) 
Sw Sean Peverell: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 56.58 (no injury) 
Df Samuel Bogaerts: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 27.83 (no injury) 
Df Angelo Tosato: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 57.1 (no injury) 
Df Reece Hutchinson: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 56.1 (no injury) 
Df Finley Williams: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 5.21 (no injury) 
Mf Freddie Dury: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 59.91 (no injury) 
Mf Lewis Young: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 92.09 (no injury) 
Mf Noah Thomson: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 36.44 (no injury) 
Fw Nigel Nicholson: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 45.19 (no injury) 
Fw Kyle Bruce: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 55.14 (no injury) 
============================================================================
============================================================================
P  E  N  A  L  T  Y     K  I  C  K  S

There is a 10% chance of conceding a penalty for every hardness point used.
Each 10% chance is separate, so a team could concede as many penalties as it plays
hardness points. If no hardness is used, there is still a 5% penalty chance. 
The chance of a penalty being scored is: 
  50 + (4 x penalty takers skill) - (2 x Gk skill)  %    (to a maximum 95%)

*******  CARLISLE UNITED CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
   - Team Hardness: 0; (1 5% chance of yielding a PK)
   - PK Taker: Freddie Bunyan SL 16
   - Defending Gk: Billy Rooney SL 15

     intRndPk = 4
1: Chance of PK occurring = 5% | Random number = 4 (PENALTY KICK!)
   Chance of scoring = 84% | Random number = 15 (PENALTY KICK GOOOAAALLL!!!)

*******  TRANMERE ROVERS CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
   - Team Hardness: 1; (1 10% chance of yielding a PK)
   - PK Taker: Samuel Bogaerts SL 14
   - Defending Gk: Matías Abreu SL 16

1: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 23 (no penalty kick)
============================================================================
============================================================================
A  T  T  A  C  K  I  N  G      C  H  A  N  C  E  S      &      S  H  O  T  S

  (i)   If team A's Fw area total is greater than team B's Df area total, 
        then A earns a number of attacks equal to the difference.
        Note: A Sw  does NOT add his levels to the Df in this league! 

  (ii)  The team with the highest Mf area total gets attacks equal to half
        the difference.

  (iii) If team A's Df area total is greater than team B's Fw total, then  
        team A earns a number of attacks equal to one fifth of the difference.
        If team A is playing a sweeper behind the defence, this rises to one 
        third of the difference.  All fractions of attacks are rounded up, 
        and then each of the attacks is treated as follows to see how many 
        produce shots, then goals: 

  (iv)  Attacks have first to beat the Sw (if playing!).  For each attack,
        there is a percentage chance of it being stopped equal to:
              30 + (Sw level x 2) % 
        (eg a level 10 Sw stops 30+10x2=50% of attacks.) Attacks passing the 
        Sw become shots.

  (v)   Each shot has a 35% chance of being off-target. If a side has scored
        2 goals this rises to 40%, then by a further 5% after each goal scored,
        to a maximum of 75%. This is to curb ridiculous scorelines (with luck!)

  (vi)  Finally, on-target shots come up against the  Gk. This is similar to 
        the Sw test, but the percentage is:
        40 + (Gk level x 2.25) % 

  Notes: If the defense is playing offside trap then the offensive team has
         their Fw attacks cut in half and theor Mf attacks doubled.

         A team choosing to PFD has 7 extra levels to split between Sw, 
         Df and Mf areas, but their attacks for each area will be halved 
         (round up fractions).

*******  TRANMERE ROVERS ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
  AREA TOTALS             GK  Sw  Df  Mf  Fw
  -------------------------------------------
  Tranmere Rovers          21  17  30  27  81
  Carlisle United          17  10  56  32  25

Tranmere Rovers Fw Attacks = 25 (81 - 56); result rounded up
Tranmere Rovers Mf Attacks = 0 ((27 - 32) / 2;  rounded up)
Tranmere Rovers Df Attacks = 2 ((30 - 25) / 3); result rounded up
Tranmere Rovers Total Attacks = 27

1: Attack for Df Pedro Castelo
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 50% | Random number = 45 (Sw stopped attack) 
2: Attack for Df Reidar Myklebust
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 50% | Random number = 47 (Sw stopped attack) 
3: Attack for Fw Santiago Romero
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 50% | Random number = 23 (Sw stopped attack) 
4: Attack for Fw Santiago Romero
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 50% | Random number = 84 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 66 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 78.25% | Random number = 42.22 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
5: Attack for Fw Afonso Ribeiro
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 50% | Random number = 75 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 62 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 78.25% | Random number = 58.55 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
6: Attack for Fw Santiago Romero
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 50% | Random number = 8 (Sw stopped attack) 
7: Attack for Fw Freddie Bunyan
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 50% | Random number = 9 (Sw stopped attack) 
8: Attack for Fw Riley Matthews
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 50% | Random number = 29 (Sw stopped attack) 
9: Attack for Fw Riley Matthews
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 50% | Random number = 52 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 41 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 78.25% | Random number = 57.23 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
10: Attack for Fw Santiago Romero
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 50% | Random number = 99 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 34 (Shot Off Target) 
11: Attack for Fw Freddie Bunyan
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 50% | Random number = 100 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 44 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 78.25% | Random number = 29.68 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
12: Attack for Fw Santiago Romero
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 50% | Random number = 86 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 83 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 78.25% | Random number = 37.11 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
13: Attack for Fw Matty Chaffersey
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 50% | Random number = 47 (Sw stopped attack) 
14: Attack for Fw Freddie Bunyan
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 50% | Random number = 7 (Sw stopped attack) 
15: Attack for Fw Afonso Ribeiro
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 50% | Random number = 73 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 78 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 78.25% | Random number = 23.4 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
16: Attack for Fw Freddie Bunyan
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 50% | Random number = 61 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 56 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 78.25% | Random number = 60.32 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
17: Attack for Fw Riley Matthews
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 50% | Random number = 7 (Sw stopped attack) 
18: Attack for Fw Afonso Ribeiro
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 50% | Random number = 42 (Sw stopped attack) 
19: Attack for Fw Santiago Romero
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 50% | Random number = 22 (Sw stopped attack) 
20: Attack for Fw Freddie Bunyan
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 50% | Random number = 98 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 91 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 78.25% | Random number = 77.38 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
21: Attack for Fw Afonso Ribeiro
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 50% | Random number = 34 (Sw stopped attack) 
22: Attack for Fw Matty Chaffersey
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 50% | Random number = 50 (Sw stopped attack) 
23: Attack for Fw Afonso Ribeiro
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 50% | Random number = 57 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 84 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 78.25% | Random number = 23.79 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
24: Attack for Fw Riley Matthews
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 50% | Random number = 30 (Sw stopped attack) 
25: Attack for Fw Matty Chaffersey
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 50% | Random number = 80 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 47 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 78.25% | Random number = 69.0 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
26: Attack for Fw Freddie Bunyan
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 50% | Random number = 72 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 6 (Shot Off Target) 
27: Attack for Fw Santiago Romero
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 50% | Random number = 3 (Sw stopped attack) 

*******  CARLISLE UNITED ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
  AREA TOTALS             GK  Sw  Df  Mf  Fw
  -------------------------------------------
  Carlisle United          17  10  56  32  25
  Tranmere Rovers          21  17  30  27  81

Carlisle United is Playing For A Draw!
Carlisle United Fw Attacks = 0 (25 - 30)
Carlisle United Mf Attacks = 1 ((32 - 27) / 2)  * 0.5 (Play For Draw Multiplier); result rounded up
Carlisle United Df Attacks = 0 ((56 - 81) / 3;  rounded up)
Carlisle United Total Attacks = 1

1: Attack for Mf Freddie Dury
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 64% | Random number = 39 (Sw stopped attack) 
===============================================
     F  I  N  A  L         S  C  O  R  E
TRANMERE ROVERS 1  -  CARLISLE UNITED 0
 
Match Notes
Didn't deserve to win that one but such a shame that a great goalkeeping performance is undone by a penalty. I'm sure it was hotly disputed.
Dave (Carlisle United) 05/05 - 10:28 PM
 
 
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