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Carlisle United
Dave Gittins
 
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FA Shield Round 1
 
 
 
 

S  T  A  R  T  I  N  G      L  I  N  E  U  P  S

CARLISLE UNITED                            CARDIFF CITY FC

Ps Player Name            SL  FIT  LVL     Ps Player Name            SL  FIT  LVL
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gk Billy Rooney           14    1   15     Gk Gerry McDermott        13    1   14
Sw Sean Peverell          12    1   13     Sw Juan Palomo Vera       11    2   13
Df Algenon Milner         13    0   13     Df Lewis McBrayne         13    0   13
Df Samuel Bogaerts        13    0   13     Df Jack Milner             6    2    8
Df Mohamed Cherkaoui       6    2    8     Df Samuel Moore            6    2    8
Mf Finn Brown             13    0   13     Mf Archie Thwaite         12    1   13
Mf Emile Bateman           6    2    8     Mf Christopher Holland     6    2    8
Fw Nigel Nicholson        16    1   17     Fw David Dowson           13    1   14
Fw Leon Stevens           12    0   12     Fw Ahmed Akhrif           12    2   14
Fw Kyle Bruce             10    1   11     Fw Lincoln Harper         15    0   15
Fw Noah Carroll            6    2    8     Fw Aaron Cockayne          6    2    8

      Gk Sw Df Mf Fw   A R E A  T O T A L S    Gk Sw Df Mf Fw
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
      15 13 34 21 48        ROSTER TOTALS      14 13 29 21 51    
       0  0  0  0  0          HARDNESS          0  0  0  0  0    
       0  0  0  6  3       HOME ADVANTAGE       0  0  0  0  0    
       0  0  0  0  0  GREAT PERFORMANCE POINTS  0  0  0  0  0    
       0  0  0  0  0        PLAY FOR DRAW       0  0  0  0  0    
=======================================================================
      15 13 34 27 51         T O T A L S       14 13 29 21 51    

============================================================================
============================================================================
B  O  O  K  I  N  G  S

Each player is next given a chance for a yellow/red card.  The first
number listed is the chance for the player to get the yellow/red
card while the second number shows the random number drawn.  If the 
random number is less than or equal to the player's yellow/red card 
chance then the player is sent off.  Note that the chances are as follows:
	- Booking: 1.5 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness))
	- Red Card: 0.25 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness)))

If a player is booked we immediately draw a second number to check
for a 'second yellow' (red card chance) resulting in a sending off.
If a player is not booked we draw a red card chance to see if the player
was given a straight red card.  Note that the aforementioned formula
differs for a Gk where the formula uses the hardness points added to
your Gk area and NOT the team hardness points.

*******  CARLISLE UNITED YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
   - Team Hardness = 0
   - Gk   Hardness = 0

Gk Billy Rooney: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 7.52 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 43.54 (no red card)

Sw Sean Peverell: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 8.97 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 45.23 (no red card)

Df Algenon Milner: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 64.8 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 84.96 (no red card)

Df Samuel Bogaerts: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 27.18 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 46.06 (no red card)

Df Mohamed Cherkaoui: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 24.16 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 65.59 (no red card)

Mf Finn Brown: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 46.05 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 45.25 (no red card)

Mf Emile Bateman: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 73.9 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 41.32 (no red card)

Fw Nigel Nicholson: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 0.07 (BOOKED!) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 52.93 (no second yellow)

Fw Leon Stevens: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 42.36 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 7.51 (no red card)

Fw Kyle Bruce: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 85.37 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 59.77 (no red card)

Fw Noah Carroll: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 40.31 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 50.92 (no red card)

*******  CARDIFF CITY FC YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
   - Team Hardness = 0
   - Gk   Hardness = 0

Gk Gerry McDermott: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 98.48 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 20.82 (no red card)

Sw Juan Palomo Vera: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 27.78 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 27.62 (no red card)

Df Lewis McBrayne: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 23.98 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 13.12 (no red card)

Df Jack Milner: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 65.46 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 59.64 (no red card)

Df Samuel Moore: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 39.73 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 58.31 (no red card)

Mf Archie Thwaite: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 16.78 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 6.06 (no red card)

Mf Christopher Holland: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 69.43 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 26.13 (no red card)

Fw David Dowson: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 99.82 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 4.26 (no red card)

Fw Ahmed Akhrif: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 81.92 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 16.23 (no red card)

Fw Lincoln Harper: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 16.04 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 67.91 (no red card)

Fw Aaron Cockayne: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 23.76 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 14.83 (no red card)
============================================================================
============================================================================
I  N  J  U  R  I  E  S

A major consequence of hardness is that your opponents get injured. 
For each player the chance of injury is:   
  ((your teamís hardness * .25) + (opponentís hardness * .75) + 2.5)%.
    For example if your team has a hardness of 8 and the opposition has a hardness of 4,
    the chance of injury for each player would be: 2 + 3 + 2.5 or 7.5%.

The chance is halved for the opposition Gk. A player plays at half 
his normal level (skill plus fitness) in the match in which he is injured.

Injured players lose fitness as a result, the amount of fitness lost being
shown on the game report in brackets. There is a 30% chance of no fitness loss,
15% chance of 1 level fitness lost, 15% of 2 levels, and a 10% chance
of each of 3,4,5, or 6 fitness levels being lost. 
This fitness loss (if any) takes place at the end of the session, for 
reasons of simplicity. Should a player be injured twice or
more in a session, only the most severe injury will apply.


*******  CARLISLE UNITED CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
   - Carlisle United Team Hardness = 0
   - Cardiff City FC Team Hardness = 0
   - All (except Gk) chance of injury = 2.5%
   - Gk chance of injury = 1.25%
Gk Billy Rooney: Chance of injury = 1.25% | Random number = 2.35 (no injury) 
Sw Sean Peverell: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 90.09 (no injury) 
Df Algenon Milner: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 3.87 (no injury) 
Df Samuel Bogaerts: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 21.29 (no injury) 
Df Mohamed Cherkaoui: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 6.85 (no injury) 
Mf Finn Brown: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 22.2 (no injury) 
Mf Emile Bateman: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 86.17 (no injury) 
Fw Nigel Nicholson: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 4.58 (no injury) 
Fw Leon Stevens: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 82.42 (no injury) 
Fw Kyle Bruce: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 1.76 (INJURED!) 
      Targeted fitness lost = 0
      Kyle Bruce is being assisted by the Physio and appears to be just fine.
Fw Noah Carroll: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 99.08 (no injury) 

*******  CARDIFF CITY FC CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
   - Cardiff City FC Team Hardness = 0
   - Carlisle United Team Hardness = 0
   - All (except Gk) chance of injury = 2.5%
   - Gk chance of injury = 1.25%
Gk Gerry McDermott: Chance of injury = 1.25% | Random number = 35.21 (no injury) 
Sw Juan Palomo Vera: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 36.58 (no injury) 
Df Lewis McBrayne: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 64.72 (no injury) 
Df Jack Milner: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 57.22 (no injury) 
Df Samuel Moore: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 15.62 (no injury) 
Mf Archie Thwaite: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 28.09 (no injury) 
Mf Christopher Holland: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 69.01 (no injury) 
Fw David Dowson: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 90.52 (no injury) 
Fw Ahmed Akhrif: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 55.73 (no injury) 
Fw Lincoln Harper: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 91.42 (no injury) 
Fw Aaron Cockayne: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 80.45 (no injury) 
============================================================================
============================================================================
P  E  N  A  L  T  Y     K  I  C  K  S

There is a 10% chance of conceding a penalty for every hardness point used.
Each 10% chance is separate, so a team could concede as many penalties as it plays
hardness points. If no hardness is used, there is still a 5% penalty chance. 
The chance of a penalty being scored is: 
  50 + (4 x penalty takers skill) - (2 x Gk skill)  %    (to a maximum 95%)

*******  CARDIFF CITY FC CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
   - Team Hardness: 0; (1 5% chance of yielding a PK)
   - PK Taker: Nigel Nicholson SL 16
   - Defending Gk: Gerry McDermott SL 13

     intRndPk = 77
1: Chance of PK occurring = 5% | Random number = 77 (no penalty kick)

*******  CARLISLE UNITED CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
   - Team Hardness: 0; (1 5% chance of yielding a PK)
   - PK Taker: Lincoln Harper SL 15
   - Defending Gk: Billy Rooney SL 14

     intRndPk = 94
1: Chance of PK occurring = 5% | Random number = 94 (no penalty kick)
============================================================================
============================================================================
A  T  T  A  C  K  I  N  G      C  H  A  N  C  E  S      &      S  H  O  T  S

  (i)   If team A's Fw area total is greater than team B's Df area total, 
        then A earns a number of attacks equal to the difference.
        Note: A Sw  does NOT add his levels to the Df in this league! 

  (ii)  The team with the highest Mf area total gets attacks equal to half
        the difference.

  (iii) If team A's Df area total is greater than team B's Fw total, then  
        team A earns a number of attacks equal to one fifth of the difference.
        If team A is playing a sweeper behind the defence, this rises to one 
        third of the difference.  All fractions of attacks are rounded up, 
        and then each of the attacks is treated as follows to see how many 
        produce shots, then goals: 

  (iv)  Attacks have first to beat the Sw (if playing!).  For each attack,
        there is a percentage chance of it being stopped equal to:
              30 + (Sw level x 2) % 
        (eg a level 10 Sw stops 30+10x2=50% of attacks.) Attacks passing the 
        Sw become shots.

  (v)   Each shot has a 35% chance of being off-target. If a side has scored
        2 goals this rises to 40%, then by a further 5% after each goal scored,
        to a maximum of 75%. This is to curb ridiculous scorelines (with luck!)

  (vi)  Finally, on-target shots come up against the  Gk. This is similar to 
        the Sw test, but the percentage is:
        40 + (Gk level x 2.25) % 

  Notes: If the defense is playing offside trap then the offensive team has
         their Fw attacks cut in half and theor Mf attacks doubled.

         A team choosing to PFD has 7 extra levels to split between Sw, 
         Df and Mf areas, but their attacks for each area will be halved 
         (round up fractions).

*******  CARLISLE UNITED ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
  AREA TOTALS             GK  Sw  Df  Mf  Fw
  -------------------------------------------
  Carlisle United          15  13  34  27  51
  Cardiff City FC          14  13  29  21  51

Carlisle United Fw Attacks = 22 (51 - 29); result rounded up
Carlisle United Mf Attacks = 3 ((27 - 21) / 2) ; result rounded up
Carlisle United Df Attacks = 0 ((34 - 51) / 3;  rounded up)
Carlisle United Total Attacks = 25

1: Attack for Mf Emile Bateman
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 38 (Sw stopped attack) 
2: Attack for Mf Emile Bateman
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 96 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 53 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 71.5% | Random number = 67.74 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
3: Attack for Mf Finn Brown
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 52 (Sw stopped attack) 
4: Attack for Fw Nigel Nicholson
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 17 (Sw stopped attack) 
5: Attack for Fw Noah Carroll
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 93 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 27 (Shot Off Target) 
6: Attack for Fw Nigel Nicholson
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 53 (Sw stopped attack) 
7: Attack for Fw Nigel Nicholson
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 89 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 9 (Shot Off Target) 
8: Attack for Fw Noah Carroll
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 59 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 11 (Shot Off Target) 
9: Attack for Fw Leon Stevens
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 46 (Sw stopped attack) 
10: Attack for Fw Kyle Bruce
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 70 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 48 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 71.5% | Random number = 80.05 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 
11: Attack for Fw Leon Stevens
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 31 (Sw stopped attack) 
12: Attack for Fw Leon Stevens
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 71 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 38 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 71.5% | Random number = 68.84 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
13: Attack for Fw Nigel Nicholson
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 86 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 73 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 71.5% | Random number = 5.22 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
14: Attack for Fw Nigel Nicholson
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 54 (Sw stopped attack) 
15: Attack for Fw Nigel Nicholson
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 78 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 22 (Shot Off Target) 
16: Attack for Fw Nigel Nicholson
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 70 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 73 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 71.5% | Random number = 73.38 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 
17: Attack for Fw Nigel Nicholson
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 26 (Sw stopped attack) 
18: Attack for Fw Kyle Bruce
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 76 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 76 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 71.5% | Random number = 34.67 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
19: Attack for Fw Leon Stevens
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 81 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 68 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 71.5% | Random number = 5.19 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
20: Attack for Fw Nigel Nicholson
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 94 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 44 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 71.5% | Random number = 42.01 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
21: Attack for Fw Nigel Nicholson
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 8 (Sw stopped attack) 
22: Attack for Fw Leon Stevens
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 29 (Sw stopped attack) 
23: Attack for Fw Kyle Bruce
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 83 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 72 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 71.5% | Random number = 20.47 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
24: Attack for Fw Nigel Nicholson
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 71 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 99 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 71.5% | Random number = 42.56 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
25: Attack for Fw Kyle Bruce
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 74 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 84 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 71.5% | Random number = 95.02 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 

*******  CARDIFF CITY FC ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
  AREA TOTALS             GK  Sw  Df  Mf  Fw
  -------------------------------------------
  Cardiff City FC          14  13  29  21  51
  Carlisle United          15  13  34  27  51

Cardiff City FC Fw Attacks = 17 (51 - 34); result rounded up
Cardiff City FC Mf Attacks = 0 ((21 - 27) / 2;  rounded up)
Cardiff City FC Df Attacks = 0 ((29 - 51) / 3;  rounded up)
Cardiff City FC Total Attacks = 17

1: Attack for Fw Lincoln Harper
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 44 (Sw stopped attack) 
2: Attack for Fw Ahmed Akhrif
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 60 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 39 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 73.75% | Random number = 59.57 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
3: Attack for Fw Lincoln Harper
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 88 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 62 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 73.75% | Random number = 17.06 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
4: Attack for Fw Lincoln Harper
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 32 (Sw stopped attack) 
5: Attack for Fw David Dowson
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 29 (Sw stopped attack) 
6: Attack for Fw Aaron Cockayne
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 74 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 37 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 73.75% | Random number = 97.2 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 
7: Attack for Fw Aaron Cockayne
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 17 (Sw stopped attack) 
8: Attack for Fw David Dowson
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 48 (Sw stopped attack) 
9: Attack for Fw Aaron Cockayne
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 83 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 25 (Shot Off Target) 
10: Attack for Fw Ahmed Akhrif
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 75 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 16 (Shot Off Target) 
11: Attack for Fw David Dowson
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 4 (Sw stopped attack) 
12: Attack for Fw Ahmed Akhrif
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 88 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 69 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 73.75% | Random number = 82.9 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 
13: Attack for Fw Aaron Cockayne
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 95 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 38 (Shot Off Target) 
14: Attack for Fw David Dowson
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 7 (Sw stopped attack) 
15: Attack for Fw Lincoln Harper
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 69 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 14 (Shot Off Target) 
16: Attack for Fw Lincoln Harper
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 8 (Sw stopped attack) 
17: Attack for Fw David Dowson
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 10 (Sw stopped attack) 
===============================================
     F  I  N  A  L         S  C  O  R  E
CARLISLE UNITED 3  -  CARDIFF CITY FC 2
 
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