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Carlisle United
Dave Gittins
 
Brentford FC
Allan Sellers
 
 
League Round 6
 
 
 
 

S  T  A  R  T  I  N  G      L  I  N  E  U  P  S

CARLISLE UNITED                            BRENTFORD FC

Ps Player Name            SL  FIT  LVL     Ps Player Name            SL  FIT  LVL
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gk Kuan-Yin Sun           14    1   15     Gk Sean Crawford          14    1   15
Sw James Dunn             13    2   15     Sw Joaquin Báez            9   -1    8
Df Mohamed Cherkaoui      13    0   13     Df Matthew Martin         10    0   10
Df Benjamin Bell          11    0   11     Df Ben Green               6    2    8
Df Ashton Burroughs        6    2    8     Df José Andrade            6    2    8
Mf Mohamed Durieux        11    2   13     Mf Matthieu Cottin        11    0   11
Mf Edoardo Rinaldi         6    2    8     Mf Derek Russell           7    2    9
Fw Noah Carroll           17    1   18     Mf Rhys Davidson           6    2    8
Fw Harley Morrissey       11    2   13     Mf Riley McAllister        3    2    5
Fw Filippo Negri          10    0   10     Fw Love Sundström         10    1   11
Fw Craig McDonald          6    2    8     Fw Julio  Rodríguez        9    0    9

      Gk Sw Df Mf Fw   A R E A  T O T A L S    Gk Sw Df Mf Fw
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
      15 15 32 21 49        ROSTER TOTALS      15  8 26 33 20    
       0  0  0  0  0          HARDNESS          0  0  0  0  0    
       0  0  0  4  5       HOME ADVANTAGE       0  0  0  0  0    
       0  0  0  0  0  GREAT PERFORMANCE POINTS  0  0  0  0  0    
       0  0  0  0  0        PLAY FOR DRAW       0  5  2  0  0    
=======================================================================
      15 15 32 25 54         T O T A L S       15 13 28 33 20    

============================================================================
============================================================================
B  O  O  K  I  N  G  S

Each player is next given a chance for a yellow/red card.  The first
number listed is the chance for the player to get the yellow/red
card while the second number shows the random number drawn.  If the 
random number is less than or equal to the player's yellow/red card 
chance then the player is sent off.  Note that the chances are as follows:
	- Booking: 1.5 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness))
	- Red Card: 0.25 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness)))

If a player is booked we immediately draw a second number to check
for a 'second yellow' (red card chance) resulting in a sending off.
If a player is not booked we draw a red card chance to see if the player
was given a straight red card.  Note that the aforementioned formula
differs for a Gk where the formula uses the hardness points added to
your Gk area and NOT the team hardness points.

*******  CARLISLE UNITED YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
   - Team Hardness = 0
   - Gk   Hardness = 0

Gk Kuan-Yin Sun: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 11.68 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 12.84 (no red card)

Sw James Dunn: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 61.85 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 38.56 (no red card)

Df Mohamed Cherkaoui: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 0.41 (BOOKED!) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 72.32 (no second yellow)

Df Benjamin Bell: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 43.44 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 25.68 (no red card)

Df Ashton Burroughs: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 53.02 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 52.87 (no red card)

Mf Mohamed Durieux: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 45.11 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 59.0 (no red card)

Mf Edoardo Rinaldi: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 35.83 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 64.38 (no red card)

Fw Noah Carroll: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 19.24 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 60.95 (no red card)

Fw Harley Morrissey: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 62.2 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 3.27 (no red card)

Fw Filippo Negri: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 78.99 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 97.06 (no red card)

Fw Craig McDonald: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 67.97 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 49.27 (no red card)

*******  BRENTFORD FC YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
   - Team Hardness = 0
   - Gk   Hardness = 0

Gk Sean Crawford: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 46.73 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 0.78 (no red card)

Sw Joaquin Báez: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 33.63 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 42.56 (no red card)

Df Matthew Martin: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 29.84 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 24.55 (no red card)

Df Ben Green: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 14.22 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 23.99 (no red card)

Df José Andrade: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 84.95 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 53.13 (no red card)

Mf Matthieu Cottin: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 80.52 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 94.4 (no red card)

Mf Derek Russell: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 28.92 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 24.52 (no red card)

Mf Rhys Davidson: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 76.91 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 87.01 (no red card)

Mf Riley McAllister: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 11.45 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 22.83 (no red card)

Fw Love Sundström: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 58.91 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 6.3 (no red card)

Fw Julio  Rodríguez: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 80.09 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 51.71 (no red card)
============================================================================
============================================================================
I  N  J  U  R  I  E  S

A major consequence of hardness is that your opponents get injured. 
For each player the chance of injury is:   
  ((your team’s hardness * .25) + (opponent’s hardness * .75) + 2.5)%.
    For example if your team has a hardness of 8 and the opposition has a hardness of 4,
    the chance of injury for each player would be: 2 + 3 + 2.5 or 7.5%.

The chance is halved for the opposition Gk. A player plays at half 
his normal level (skill plus fitness) in the match in which he is injured.

Injured players lose fitness as a result, the amount of fitness lost being
shown on the game report in brackets. There is a 30% chance of no fitness loss,
15% chance of 1 level fitness lost, 15% of 2 levels, and a 10% chance
of each of 3,4,5, or 6 fitness levels being lost. 
This fitness loss (if any) takes place at the end of the session, for 
reasons of simplicity. Should a player be injured twice or
more in a session, only the most severe injury will apply.


*******  CARLISLE UNITED CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
   - Carlisle United Team Hardness = 0
   - Brentford FC Team Hardness = 0
   - All (except Gk) chance of injury = 2.5%
   - Gk chance of injury = 1.25%
Gk Kuan-Yin Sun: Chance of injury = 1.25% | Random number = 30.58 (no injury) 
Sw James Dunn: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 33.65 (no injury) 
Df Mohamed Cherkaoui: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 25.74 (no injury) 
Df Benjamin Bell: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 7.92 (no injury) 
Df Ashton Burroughs: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 80.98 (no injury) 
Mf Mohamed Durieux: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 49.47 (no injury) 
Mf Edoardo Rinaldi: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 77.25 (no injury) 
Fw Noah Carroll: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 24.45 (no injury) 
Fw Harley Morrissey: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 31.0 (no injury) 
Fw Filippo Negri: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 73.39 (no injury) 
Fw Craig McDonald: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 31.85 (no injury) 

*******  BRENTFORD FC CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
   - Brentford FC Team Hardness = 0
   - Carlisle United Team Hardness = 0
   - All (except Gk) chance of injury = 2.5%
   - Gk chance of injury = 1.25%
Gk Sean Crawford: Chance of injury = 1.25% | Random number = 86.2 (no injury) 
Sw Joaquin Báez: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 31.68 (no injury) 
Df Matthew Martin: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 8.17 (no injury) 
Df Ben Green: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 7.74 (no injury) 
Df José Andrade: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 32.8 (no injury) 
Mf Matthieu Cottin: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 13.67 (no injury) 
Mf Derek Russell: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 7.86 (no injury) 
Mf Rhys Davidson: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 8.34 (no injury) 
Mf Riley McAllister: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 69.35 (no injury) 
Fw Love Sundström: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 6.59 (no injury) 
Fw Julio  Rodríguez: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 10.78 (no injury) 
============================================================================
============================================================================
P  E  N  A  L  T  Y     K  I  C  K  S

There is a 10% chance of conceding a penalty for every hardness point used.
Each 10% chance is separate, so a team could concede as many penalties as it plays
hardness points. If no hardness is used, there is still a 5% penalty chance. 
The chance of a penalty being scored is: 
  50 + (4 x penalty takers skill) - (2 x Gk skill)  %    (to a maximum 95%)

*******  BRENTFORD FC CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
   - Team Hardness: 0; (1 5% chance of yielding a PK)
   - PK Taker: Noah Carroll SL 17
   - Defending Gk: Sean Crawford SL 14

     intRndPk = 34
1: Chance of PK occurring = 5% | Random number = 34 (no penalty kick)

*******  CARLISLE UNITED CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
   - Team Hardness: 0; (1 5% chance of yielding a PK)
   - PK Taker: Matthieu Cottin SL 11
   - Defending Gk: Kuan-Yin Sun SL 14

     intRndPk = 31
1: Chance of PK occurring = 5% | Random number = 31 (no penalty kick)
============================================================================
============================================================================
A  T  T  A  C  K  I  N  G      C  H  A  N  C  E  S      &      S  H  O  T  S

  (i)   If team A's Fw area total is greater than team B's Df area total, 
        then A earns a number of attacks equal to the difference.
        Note: A Sw  does NOT add his levels to the Df in this league! 

  (ii)  The team with the highest Mf area total gets attacks equal to half
        the difference.

  (iii) If team A's Df area total is greater than team B's Fw total, then  
        team A earns a number of attacks equal to one fifth of the difference.
        If team A is playing a sweeper behind the defence, this rises to one 
        third of the difference.  All fractions of attacks are rounded up, 
        and then each of the attacks is treated as follows to see how many 
        produce shots, then goals: 

  (iv)  Attacks have first to beat the Sw (if playing!).  For each attack,
        there is a percentage chance of it being stopped equal to:
              30 + (Sw level x 2) % 
        (eg a level 10 Sw stops 30+10x2=50% of attacks.) Attacks passing the 
        Sw become shots.

  (v)   Each shot has a 35% chance of being off-target. If a side has scored
        2 goals this rises to 40%, then by a further 5% after each goal scored,
        to a maximum of 75%. This is to curb ridiculous scorelines (with luck!)

  (vi)  Finally, on-target shots come up against the  Gk. This is similar to 
        the Sw test, but the percentage is:
        40 + (Gk level x 2.25) % 

  Notes: If the defense is playing offside trap then the offensive team has
         their Fw attacks cut in half and theor Mf attacks doubled.

         A team choosing to PFD has 7 extra levels to split between Sw, 
         Df and Mf areas, but their attacks for each area will be halved 
         (round up fractions).

*******  CARLISLE UNITED ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
  AREA TOTALS             GK  Sw  Df  Mf  Fw
  -------------------------------------------
  Carlisle United          15  15  32  25  54
  Brentford FC             15  13  28  33  20

Carlisle United Fw Attacks = 26 (54 - 28); result rounded up
Carlisle United Mf Attacks = 0 ((25 - 33) / 2;  rounded up)
Carlisle United Df Attacks = 4 ((32 - 20) / 3); result rounded up
Carlisle United Total Attacks = 30

1: Attack for Df Mohamed Cherkaoui
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 66 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 62 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 73.75% | Random number = 99.55 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 
2: Attack for Df Benjamin Bell
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 55 (Sw stopped attack) 
3: Attack for Df Ashton Burroughs
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 7 (Sw stopped attack) 
4: Attack for Df Mohamed Cherkaoui
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 25 (Sw stopped attack) 
5: Attack for Fw Noah Carroll
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 42 (Sw stopped attack) 
6: Attack for Fw Noah Carroll
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 35 (Sw stopped attack) 
7: Attack for Fw Craig McDonald
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 50 (Sw stopped attack) 
8: Attack for Fw Noah Carroll
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 26 (Sw stopped attack) 
9: Attack for Fw Harley Morrissey
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 16 (Sw stopped attack) 
10: Attack for Fw Filippo Negri
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 82 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 69 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 73.75% | Random number = 18.04 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
11: Attack for Fw Noah Carroll
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 42 (Sw stopped attack) 
12: Attack for Fw Harley Morrissey
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 66 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 95 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 73.75% | Random number = 85.9 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 
13: Attack for Fw Harley Morrissey
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 54 (Sw stopped attack) 
14: Attack for Fw Filippo Negri
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 59 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 49 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 73.75% | Random number = 70.12 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
15: Attack for Fw Noah Carroll
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 88 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 11 (Shot Off Target) 
16: Attack for Fw Noah Carroll
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 9 (Sw stopped attack) 
17: Attack for Fw Harley Morrissey
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 1 (Sw stopped attack) 
18: Attack for Fw Filippo Negri
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 9 (Sw stopped attack) 
19: Attack for Fw Noah Carroll
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 74 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 24 (Shot Off Target) 
20: Attack for Fw Noah Carroll
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 83 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 15 (Shot Off Target) 
21: Attack for Fw Craig McDonald
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 3 (Sw stopped attack) 
22: Attack for Fw Harley Morrissey
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 45 (Sw stopped attack) 
23: Attack for Fw Noah Carroll
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 54 (Sw stopped attack) 
24: Attack for Fw Harley Morrissey
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 83 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 42 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 73.75% | Random number = 43.01 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
25: Attack for Fw Filippo Negri
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 31 (Sw stopped attack) 
26: Attack for Fw Filippo Negri
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 32 (Sw stopped attack) 
27: Attack for Fw Noah Carroll
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 66 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 4 (Shot Off Target) 
28: Attack for Fw Noah Carroll
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 62 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 29 (Shot Off Target) 
29: Attack for Fw Noah Carroll
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 39 (Sw stopped attack) 
30: Attack for Fw Harley Morrissey
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 42 (Sw stopped attack) 

*******  BRENTFORD FC ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
  AREA TOTALS             GK  Sw  Df  Mf  Fw
  -------------------------------------------
  Brentford FC             15  13  28  33  20
  Carlisle United          15  15  32  25  54

Brentford FC is Playing For A Draw!
Brentford FC Fw Attacks = 0 (20 - 32)
Brentford FC Mf Attacks = 2 ((33 - 25) / 2)  * 0.5 (Play For Draw Multiplier); result rounded up
Brentford FC Df Attacks = 0 ((28 - 54) / 3;  rounded up)
Brentford FC Total Attacks = 2

1: Attack for Mf Derek Russell
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 44 (Sw stopped attack) 
2: Attack for Mf Matthieu Cottin
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 93 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 97 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 73.75% | Random number = 55.01 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
===============================================
     F  I  N  A  L         S  C  O  R  E
CARLISLE UNITED 2  -  BRENTFORD FC 0
 
Match Notes
Hoping for a more favourable outcome than in the recent AP Cup match.
Dave (Carlisle United) 03/16 - 12:27 PM
 
 
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