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Crewe Alexandra FC
Bill Ramsay
 
Swindon Town FC
Matt White
 
 
League Round 18
 
 
 
 

S  T  A  R  T  I  N  G      L  I  N  E  U  P  S

CREWE ALEXANDRA FC                         SWINDON TOWN FC

Ps Player Name            SL  FIT  LVL     Ps Player Name            SL  FIT  LVL
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gk Luke Marshall          14    2   16     Gk Donald Hill            12    1   13
Sw Gabriel Martin         15    2   17     Df Fernando Renteria      15    0   15
Df Carl Berg              14    2   16     Df Sean Oliver            12    0   12
Df Thomas Charlton        12    2   14     Df Aiden Henderson        10    2   12
Df Kian Ferguson          11    2   13     Df çlvaro Duarte          10    2   12
Mf Martin Hunt            13    2   15     Mf Jamie Calhoun          11    0   11
Mf Alvaro  Rodríguez      12    1   13     Mf Brad Nguyen            10   -1    9
Mf Gaëtan Adam            11    2   13     Mf Thomás Gouveia          9    2   11
Fw Victor Jensen          18    0   18     Mf Kristoffer Larsen       8    2   10
Fw Fernando Neves         14    1   15     Fw Jack Stretch           14    0   14
Fw Erling Hauge           10    2   12     Fw Alistair Lorimar       10    0   10

      Gk Sw Df Mf Fw   A R E A  T O T A L S    Gk Sw Df Mf Fw
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
      16 17 43 41 45        ROSTER TOTALS      13  0 51 41 24    
       0  0  0  0  0          HARDNESS          2  0  2  1  2    
       0  0  0  0  9       HOME ADVANTAGE       0  0  0  0  0    
       0  0  0  0  0  GREAT PERFORMANCE POINTS  0  0  0  0  0    
       0  0  0  0  0        PLAY FOR DRAW       0  0  0  0  0    
=======================================================================
      16 17 43 41 54         T O T A L S       15  0 53 42 26    

============================================================================
============================================================================
B  O  O  K  I  N  G  S

Each player is next given a chance for a yellow/red card.  The first
number listed is the chance for the player to get the yellow/red
card while the second number shows the random number drawn.  If the 
random number is less than or equal to the player's yellow/red card 
chance then the player is sent off.  Note that the chances are as follows:
	- Booking: 1.5 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness))
	- Red Card: 0.25 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness)))

If a player is booked we immediately draw a second number to check
for a 'second yellow' (red card chance) resulting in a sending off.
If a player is not booked we draw a red card chance to see if the player
was given a straight red card.  Note that the aforementioned formula
differs for a Gk where the formula uses the hardness points added to
your Gk area and NOT the team hardness points.

*******  CREWE ALEXANDRA FC YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
   - Team Hardness = 0
   - Gk   Hardness = 0

Gk Luke Marshall: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 97.61 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 78.82 (no red card)

Sw Gabriel Martin: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 50.71 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 3.35 (no red card)

Df Carl Berg: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 62.91 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 70.79 (no red card)

Df Thomas Charlton: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 72.78 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 37.06 (no red card)

Df Kian Ferguson: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 95.94 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 80.9 (no red card)

Mf Martin Hunt: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 79.83 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 16.06 (no red card)

Mf Alvaro  Rodríguez: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 83.75 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 38.56 (no red card)

Mf Gaëtan Adam: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 92.84 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 5.83 (no red card)

Fw Victor Jensen: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 17.89 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 87.59 (no red card)

Fw Fernando Neves: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 0.18 (BOOKED!) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 17.33 (no second yellow)

Fw Erling Hauge: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 1.88 (BOOKED!) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 24.83 (no second yellow)

*******  SWINDON TOWN FC YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
   - Team Hardness = 7
   - Gk   Hardness = 2

Gk Donald Hill: Chance of booking = 9.0% | Random number = 11.04 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.5% | Random number = 50.21 (no red card)

Df Fernando Renteria: Chance of booking = 20.25% | Random number = 83.89 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 3.37% | Random number = 83.65 (no red card)

Df Sean Oliver: Chance of booking = 20.25% | Random number = 82.06 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 3.37% | Random number = 95.89 (no red card)

Df Aiden Henderson: Chance of booking = 20.25% | Random number = 34.69 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 3.37% | Random number = 3.28 (STRAIGHT RED CARD! SENT OFF!!!)
      Aiden Henderson new match skill level =  5
      Aiden Henderson new match total level =  7

Df çlvaro Duarte: Chance of booking = 20.25% | Random number = 84.98 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 3.37% | Random number = 31.3 (no red card)

Mf Jamie Calhoun: Chance of booking = 20.25% | Random number = 31.17 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 3.37% | Random number = 27.38 (no red card)

Mf Brad Nguyen: Chance of booking = 20.25% | Random number = 74.21 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 3.37% | Random number = 4.08 (no red card)

Mf Thomás Gouveia: Chance of booking = 20.25% | Random number = 71.25 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 3.37% | Random number = 20.19 (no red card)

Mf Kristoffer Larsen: Chance of booking = 20.25% | Random number = 13.24 (BOOKED!) 
   Chance of second booking = 3.37% | Random number = 14.29 (no second yellow)

Fw Jack Stretch: Chance of booking = 20.25% | Random number = 58.89 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 3.37% | Random number = 9.81 (no red card)

Fw Alistair Lorimar: Chance of booking = 20.25% | Random number = 43.79 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 3.37% | Random number = 34.34 (no red card)
============================================================================
============================================================================
I  N  J  U  R  I  E  S

A major consequence of hardness is that your opponents get injured. 
For each player the chance of injury is:   
  ((your team’s hardness * .25) + (opponent’s hardness * .75) + 2.5)%.
    For example if your team has a hardness of 8 and the opposition has a hardness of 4,
    the chance of injury for each player would be: 2 + 3 + 2.5 or 7.5%.

The chance is halved for the opposition Gk. A player plays at half 
his normal level (skill plus fitness) in the match in which he is injured.

Injured players lose fitness as a result, the amount of fitness lost being
shown on the game report in brackets. There is a 30% chance of no fitness loss,
15% chance of 1 level fitness lost, 15% of 2 levels, and a 10% chance
of each of 3,4,5, or 6 fitness levels being lost. 
This fitness loss (if any) takes place at the end of the session, for 
reasons of simplicity. Should a player be injured twice or
more in a session, only the most severe injury will apply.


*******  CREWE ALEXANDRA FC CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
   - Crewe Alexandra FC Team Hardness = 0
   - Swindon Town FC Team Hardness = 7
   - All (except Gk) chance of injury = 7.75%
   - Gk chance of injury = 3.87%
Gk Luke Marshall: Chance of injury = 3.87% | Random number = 10.87 (no injury) 
Sw Gabriel Martin: Chance of injury = 7.75% | Random number = 80.85 (no injury) 
Df Carl Berg: Chance of injury = 7.75% | Random number = 31.2 (no injury) 
Df Thomas Charlton: Chance of injury = 7.75% | Random number = 61.82 (no injury) 
Df Kian Ferguson: Chance of injury = 7.75% | Random number = 42.15 (no injury) 
Mf Martin Hunt: Chance of injury = 7.75% | Random number = 50.41 (no injury) 
Mf Alvaro  Rodríguez: Chance of injury = 7.75% | Random number = 36.92 (no injury) 
Mf Gaëtan Adam: Chance of injury = 7.75% | Random number = 63.81 (no injury) 
Fw Victor Jensen: Chance of injury = 7.75% | Random number = 72.03 (no injury) 
Fw Fernando Neves: Chance of injury = 7.75% | Random number = 8.26 (no injury) 
Fw Erling Hauge: Chance of injury = 7.75% | Random number = 43.43 (no injury) 

*******  SWINDON TOWN FC CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
   - Swindon Town FC Team Hardness = 7
   - Crewe Alexandra FC Team Hardness = 0
   - All (except Gk) chance of injury = 4.25%
   - Gk chance of injury = 2.12%
Gk Donald Hill: Chance of injury = 2.12% | Random number = 38.86 (no injury) 
Df Fernando Renteria: Chance of injury = 4.25% | Random number = 91.46 (no injury) 
Df Sean Oliver: Chance of injury = 4.25% | Random number = 18.98 (no injury) 
Df Aiden Henderson: Chance of injury = 4.25% | Random number = 40.07 (no injury) 
Df çlvaro Duarte: Chance of injury = 4.25% | Random number = 88.55 (no injury) 
Mf Jamie Calhoun: Chance of injury = 4.25% | Random number = 23.55 (no injury) 
Mf Brad Nguyen: Chance of injury = 4.25% | Random number = 25.74 (no injury) 
Mf Thomás Gouveia: Chance of injury = 4.25% | Random number = 3.7 (INJURED!) 
      Targeted fitness lost = 0
      Thomás Gouveia loses 0 fitness points (deducted at end of session)
      Thomás Gouveia new match skill level =  5
      Thomás Gouveia new match total level =  7
Mf Kristoffer Larsen: Chance of injury = 4.25% | Random number = 38.47 (no injury) 
Fw Jack Stretch: Chance of injury = 4.25% | Random number = 7.29 (no injury) 
Fw Alistair Lorimar: Chance of injury = 4.25% | Random number = 7.22 (no injury) 
============================================================================
============================================================================
P  E  N  A  L  T  Y     K  I  C  K  S

There is a 10% chance of conceding a penalty for every hardness point used.
Each 10% chance is separate, so a team could concede as many penalties as it plays
hardness points. If no hardness is used, there is still a 5% penalty chance. 
The chance of a penalty being scored is: 
  50 + (4 x penalty takers skill) - (2 x Gk skill)  %    (to a maximum 95%)

*******  SWINDON TOWN FC CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
   - Team Hardness: 7; (7 10% chances of yielding PKs)
   - PK Taker: Victor Jensen SL 18
   - Defending Gk: Donald Hill SL 12

1: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 45 (no penalty kick)
2: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 91 (no penalty kick)
3: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 53 (no penalty kick)
4: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 49 (no penalty kick)
5: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 51 (no penalty kick)
6: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 61 (no penalty kick)
7: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 31 (no penalty kick)

*******  CREWE ALEXANDRA FC CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
   - Team Hardness: 0; (1 5% chance of yielding a PK)
   - PK Taker: Fernando Renteria SL 15
   - Defending Gk: Luke Marshall SL 14

     intRndPk = 90
1: Chance of PK occurring = 5% | Random number = 90 (no penalty kick)
============================================================================
============================================================================
A  T  T  A  C  K  I  N  G      C  H  A  N  C  E  S      &      S  H  O  T  S

  (i)   If team A's Fw area total is greater than team B's Df area total, 
        then A earns a number of attacks equal to the difference.
        Note: A Sw  does NOT add his levels to the Df in this league! 

  (ii)  The team with the highest Mf area total gets attacks equal to half
        the difference.

  (iii) If team A's Df area total is greater than team B's Fw total, then  
        team A earns a number of attacks equal to one fifth of the difference.
        If team A is playing a sweeper behind the defence, this rises to one 
        third of the difference.  All fractions of attacks are rounded up, 
        and then each of the attacks is treated as follows to see how many 
        produce shots, then goals: 

  (iv)  Attacks have first to beat the Sw (if playing!).  For each attack,
        there is a percentage chance of it being stopped equal to:
              30 + (Sw level x 2) % 
        (eg a level 10 Sw stops 30+10x2=50% of attacks.) Attacks passing the 
        Sw become shots.

  (v)   Each shot has a 35% chance of being off-target. If a side has scored
        2 goals this rises to 40%, then by a further 5% after each goal scored,
        to a maximum of 75%. This is to curb ridiculous scorelines (with luck!)

  (vi)  Finally, on-target shots come up against the  Gk. This is similar to 
        the Sw test, but the percentage is:
        40 + (Gk level x 2.25) % 

  Notes: If the defense is playing offside trap then the offensive team has
         their Fw attacks cut in half and theor Mf attacks doubled.

         A team choosing to PFD has 7 extra levels to split between Sw, 
         Df and Mf areas, but their attacks for each area will be halved 
         (round up fractions).

*******  CREWE ALEXANDRA FC ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
  AREA TOTALS             GK  Sw  Df  Mf  Fw
  -------------------------------------------
  Crewe Alexandra FC       16  17  43  41  54
  Swindon Town FC          15   0  48  38  26

Crewe Alexandra FC Fw Attacks = 6 (54 - 48); result rounded up
Crewe Alexandra FC Mf Attacks = 2 ((41 - 38) / 2) ; result rounded up
Crewe Alexandra FC Df Attacks = 6 ((43 - 26) / 3); result rounded up
Crewe Alexandra FC Total Attacks = 14

1: Attack for Df Thomas Charlton
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Swindon Town FC
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 20 (Shot Off Target) 
2: Attack for Df Thomas Charlton
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Swindon Town FC
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 87 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 73.75% | Random number = 27.29 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
3: Attack for Df Kian Ferguson
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Swindon Town FC
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 20 (Shot Off Target) 
4: Attack for Df Thomas Charlton
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Swindon Town FC
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 54 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 73.75% | Random number = 89.58 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 
5: Attack for Df Thomas Charlton
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Swindon Town FC
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 6 (Shot Off Target) 
6: Attack for Df Carl Berg
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Swindon Town FC
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 9 (Shot Off Target) 
7: Attack for Mf Martin Hunt
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Swindon Town FC
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 30 (Shot Off Target) 
8: Attack for Mf Martin Hunt
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Swindon Town FC
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 80 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 73.75% | Random number = 94.86 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 
9: Attack for Fw Victor Jensen
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Swindon Town FC
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 23 (Shot Off Target) 
10: Attack for Fw Fernando Neves
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Swindon Town FC
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 11 (Shot Off Target) 
11: Attack for Fw Victor Jensen
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Swindon Town FC
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 55 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 73.75% | Random number = 47.83 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
12: Attack for Fw Fernando Neves
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Swindon Town FC
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 84 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 73.75% | Random number = 99.31 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 
13: Attack for Fw Victor Jensen
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Swindon Town FC
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 45% | Random number = 19 (Shot Off Target) 
14: Attack for Fw Victor Jensen
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Swindon Town FC
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 45% | Random number = 23 (Shot Off Target) 

*******  SWINDON TOWN FC ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
  AREA TOTALS             GK  Sw  Df  Mf  Fw
  -------------------------------------------
  Swindon Town FC          15   0  48  38  26
  Crewe Alexandra FC       16  17  43  41  54

Swindon Town FC Fw Attacks = 0 (26 - 43)
Swindon Town FC Mf Attacks = 0 ((38 - 41) / 2;  rounded up)
Swindon Town FC Df Attacks = 0 ((48 - 54) / 5;  rounded up)
Swindon Town FC Total Attacks = 0

===============================================
     F  I  N  A  L         S  C  O  R  E
CREWE ALEXANDRA FC 3  -  SWINDON TOWN FC 0
 
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