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Oldham Athletic AFC
Tim Batth
 
Southend United
Dave Dowson
 
 
League Round 18
 
 
 
 

S  T  A  R  T  I  N  G      L  I  N  E  U  P  S

OLDHAM ATHLETIC AFC                        SOUTHEND UNITED

Ps Player Name            SL  FIT  LVL     Ps Player Name            SL  FIT  LVL
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gk Tom Lang                9    2   11     Gk Calum Hughes           14    2   16
Df Douglass Ford          14    1   15     Sw John Dunn              13    2   15
Df Corey Akhtar           13    1   14     Df Tony Barmby            11    2   13
Df Douglas Souza           9    2   11     Df Riccardo Lombardi      10    2   12
Df Sam Morrissey           5    2    7     Df Finley Cockayne        10    1   11
Mf Henry Pagett           13    1   14     Df Julio  Rojas            9    2   11
Mf Marco Costa             9    2   11     Mf Tiago Quaresma         10    2   12
Mf Leo Marino              5    2    7     Mf Jannick Herrmann        9    2   11
Fw Owen Milne             16    0   16     Mf Davide Caruso           9    2   11
Fw Lars Bommel             9    2   11     Fw Nuri  Peretz           15    2   17
Fw Carl Henriksson         5    2    7     Fw David Campbell         14    1   15

      Gk Sw Df Mf Fw   A R E A  T O T A L S    Gk Sw Df Mf Fw
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
      11  0 47 32 34        ROSTER TOTALS      16 15 47 34 32    
       1  0  0  1  0          HARDNESS          0  0  0  0  5    
       0  0  0  3  6       HOME ADVANTAGE       0  0  0  0  0    
       0  0  0  0  0  GREAT PERFORMANCE POINTS  0  0  0  0  0    
       0  0  3  4  0        PLAY FOR DRAW       0  0  0  0  0    
=======================================================================
      12  0 50 40 40         T O T A L S       16 15 47 34 37    

============================================================================
============================================================================
B  O  O  K  I  N  G  S

Each player is next given a chance for a yellow/red card.  The first
number listed is the chance for the player to get the yellow/red
card while the second number shows the random number drawn.  If the 
random number is less than or equal to the player's yellow/red card 
chance then the player is sent off.  Note that the chances are as follows:
	- Booking: 1.5 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness))
	- Red Card: 0.25 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness)))

If a player is booked we immediately draw a second number to check
for a 'second yellow' (red card chance) resulting in a sending off.
If a player is not booked we draw a red card chance to see if the player
was given a straight red card.  Note that the aforementioned formula
differs for a Gk where the formula uses the hardness points added to
your Gk area and NOT the team hardness points.

*******  OLDHAM ATHLETIC AFC YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
   - Team Hardness = 2
   - Gk   Hardness = 1

Gk Tom Lang: Chance of booking = 6.75% | Random number = 98.25 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.125% | Random number = 20.01 (no red card)

Df Douglass Ford: Chance of booking = 9.0% | Random number = 15.29 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.5% | Random number = 77.25 (no red card)

Df Corey Akhtar: Chance of booking = 9.0% | Random number = 12.42 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.5% | Random number = 5.72 (no red card)

Df Douglas Souza: Chance of booking = 9.0% | Random number = 45.79 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.5% | Random number = 5.93 (no red card)

Df Sam Morrissey: Chance of booking = 9.0% | Random number = 97.33 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.5% | Random number = 6.79 (no red card)

Mf Henry Pagett: Chance of booking = 9.0% | Random number = 90.55 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.5% | Random number = 71.68 (no red card)

Mf Marco Costa: Chance of booking = 9.0% | Random number = 42.11 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.5% | Random number = 6.06 (no red card)

Mf Leo Marino: Chance of booking = 9.0% | Random number = 48.17 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.5% | Random number = 2.02 (no red card)

Fw Owen Milne: Chance of booking = 9.0% | Random number = 66.71 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.5% | Random number = 9.12 (no red card)

Fw Lars Bommel: Chance of booking = 9.0% | Random number = 69.47 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.5% | Random number = 41.87 (no red card)

Fw Carl Henriksson: Chance of booking = 9.0% | Random number = 90.72 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.5% | Random number = 84.22 (no red card)

*******  SOUTHEND UNITED YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
   - Team Hardness = 5
   - Gk   Hardness = 0

Gk Calum Hughes: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 47.46 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 77.11 (no red card)

Sw John Dunn: Chance of booking = 15.75% | Random number = 51.63 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 2.62% | Random number = 7.14 (no red card)

Df Tony Barmby: Chance of booking = 15.75% | Random number = 19.56 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 2.62% | Random number = 89.74 (no red card)

Df Riccardo Lombardi: Chance of booking = 15.75% | Random number = 56.21 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 2.62% | Random number = 42.93 (no red card)

Df Finley Cockayne: Chance of booking = 15.75% | Random number = 28.61 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 2.62% | Random number = 59.28 (no red card)

Df Julio  Rojas: Chance of booking = 15.75% | Random number = 58.45 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 2.62% | Random number = 82.17 (no red card)

Mf Tiago Quaresma: Chance of booking = 15.75% | Random number = 46.72 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 2.62% | Random number = 62.53 (no red card)

Mf Jannick Herrmann: Chance of booking = 15.75% | Random number = 74.16 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 2.62% | Random number = 19.6 (no red card)

Mf Davide Caruso: Chance of booking = 15.75% | Random number = 86.5 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 2.62% | Random number = 63.13 (no red card)

Fw Nuri  Peretz: Chance of booking = 15.75% | Random number = 5.42 (BOOKED!) 
   Chance of second booking = 2.62% | Random number = 78.87 (no second yellow)

Fw David Campbell: Chance of booking = 15.75% | Random number = 78.67 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 2.62% | Random number = 30.19 (no red card)
============================================================================
============================================================================
I  N  J  U  R  I  E  S

A major consequence of hardness is that your opponents get injured. 
For each player the chance of injury is:   
  ((your teamís hardness * .25) + (opponentís hardness * .75) + 2.5)%.
    For example if your team has a hardness of 8 and the opposition has a hardness of 4,
    the chance of injury for each player would be: 2 + 3 + 2.5 or 7.5%.

The chance is halved for the opposition Gk. A player plays at half 
his normal level (skill plus fitness) in the match in which he is injured.

Injured players lose fitness as a result, the amount of fitness lost being
shown on the game report in brackets. There is a 30% chance of no fitness loss,
15% chance of 1 level fitness lost, 15% of 2 levels, and a 10% chance
of each of 3,4,5, or 6 fitness levels being lost. 
This fitness loss (if any) takes place at the end of the session, for 
reasons of simplicity. Should a player be injured twice or
more in a session, only the most severe injury will apply.


*******  OLDHAM ATHLETIC AFC CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
   - Oldham Athletic AFC Team Hardness = 2
   - Southend United Team Hardness = 5
   - All (except Gk) chance of injury = 6.75%
   - Gk chance of injury = 3.37%
Gk Tom Lang: Chance of injury = 3.37% | Random number = 86.11 (no injury) 
Df Douglass Ford: Chance of injury = 6.75% | Random number = 65.82 (no injury) 
Df Corey Akhtar: Chance of injury = 6.75% | Random number = 94.32 (no injury) 
Df Douglas Souza: Chance of injury = 6.75% | Random number = 44.72 (no injury) 
Df Sam Morrissey: Chance of injury = 6.75% | Random number = 49.42 (no injury) 
Mf Henry Pagett: Chance of injury = 6.75% | Random number = 38.45 (no injury) 
Mf Marco Costa: Chance of injury = 6.75% | Random number = 49.97 (no injury) 
Mf Leo Marino: Chance of injury = 6.75% | Random number = 37.74 (no injury) 
Fw Owen Milne: Chance of injury = 6.75% | Random number = 37.37 (no injury) 
Fw Lars Bommel: Chance of injury = 6.75% | Random number = 19.82 (no injury) 
Fw Carl Henriksson: Chance of injury = 6.75% | Random number = 10.67 (no injury) 

*******  SOUTHEND UNITED CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
   - Southend United Team Hardness = 5
   - Oldham Athletic AFC Team Hardness = 2
   - All (except Gk) chance of injury = 5.25%
   - Gk chance of injury = 2.62%
Gk Calum Hughes: Chance of injury = 2.62% | Random number = 75.44 (no injury) 
Sw John Dunn: Chance of injury = 5.25% | Random number = 68.8 (no injury) 
Df Tony Barmby: Chance of injury = 5.25% | Random number = 51.79 (no injury) 
Df Riccardo Lombardi: Chance of injury = 5.25% | Random number = 24.18 (no injury) 
Df Finley Cockayne: Chance of injury = 5.25% | Random number = 85.48 (no injury) 
Df Julio  Rojas: Chance of injury = 5.25% | Random number = 26.92 (no injury) 
Mf Tiago Quaresma: Chance of injury = 5.25% | Random number = 76.69 (no injury) 
Mf Jannick Herrmann: Chance of injury = 5.25% | Random number = 50.27 (no injury) 
Mf Davide Caruso: Chance of injury = 5.25% | Random number = 53.23 (no injury) 
Fw Nuri  Peretz: Chance of injury = 5.25% | Random number = 27.92 (no injury) 
Fw David Campbell: Chance of injury = 5.25% | Random number = 55.47 (no injury) 
============================================================================
============================================================================
P  E  N  A  L  T  Y     K  I  C  K  S

There is a 10% chance of conceding a penalty for every hardness point used.
Each 10% chance is separate, so a team could concede as many penalties as it plays
hardness points. If no hardness is used, there is still a 5% penalty chance. 
The chance of a penalty being scored is: 
  50 + (4 x penalty takers skill) - (2 x Gk skill)  %    (to a maximum 95%)

*******  SOUTHEND UNITED CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
   - Team Hardness: 5; (5 10% chances of yielding PKs)
   - PK Taker: Owen Milne SL 16
   - Defending Gk: Calum Hughes SL 14

1: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 35 (no penalty kick)
2: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 55 (no penalty kick)
3: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 63 (no penalty kick)
4: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 70 (no penalty kick)
5: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 77 (no penalty kick)

*******  OLDHAM ATHLETIC AFC CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
   - Team Hardness: 2; (2 10% chances of yielding PKs)
   - PK Taker: Nuri  Peretz SL 15
   - Defending Gk: Tom Lang SL 9

1: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 53 (no penalty kick)
2: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 12 (no penalty kick)
============================================================================
============================================================================
A  T  T  A  C  K  I  N  G      C  H  A  N  C  E  S      &      S  H  O  T  S

  (i)   If team A's Fw area total is greater than team B's Df area total, 
        then A earns a number of attacks equal to the difference.
        Note: A Sw  does NOT add his levels to the Df in this league! 

  (ii)  The team with the highest Mf area total gets attacks equal to half
        the difference.

  (iii) If team A's Df area total is greater than team B's Fw total, then  
        team A earns a number of attacks equal to one fifth of the difference.
        If team A is playing a sweeper behind the defence, this rises to one 
        third of the difference.  All fractions of attacks are rounded up, 
        and then each of the attacks is treated as follows to see how many 
        produce shots, then goals: 

  (iv)  Attacks have first to beat the Sw (if playing!).  For each attack,
        there is a percentage chance of it being stopped equal to:
              30 + (Sw level x 2) % 
        (eg a level 10 Sw stops 30+10x2=50% of attacks.) Attacks passing the 
        Sw become shots.

  (v)   Each shot has a 35% chance of being off-target. If a side has scored
        2 goals this rises to 40%, then by a further 5% after each goal scored,
        to a maximum of 75%. This is to curb ridiculous scorelines (with luck!)

  (vi)  Finally, on-target shots come up against the  Gk. This is similar to 
        the Sw test, but the percentage is:
        40 + (Gk level x 2.25) % 

  Notes: If the defense is playing offside trap then the offensive team has
         their Fw attacks cut in half and theor Mf attacks doubled.

         A team choosing to PFD has 7 extra levels to split between Sw, 
         Df and Mf areas, but their attacks for each area will be halved 
         (round up fractions).

*******  OLDHAM ATHLETIC AFC ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
  AREA TOTALS             GK  Sw  Df  Mf  Fw
  -------------------------------------------
  Oldham Athletic AFC      12   0  50  40  40
  Southend United          16  15  47  34  37

Oldham Athletic AFC is Playing For A Draw!
Oldham Athletic AFC Fw Attacks = 0 (40 - 47)
Oldham Athletic AFC Mf Attacks = 2 ((40 - 34) / 2)  * 0.5 (Play For Draw Multiplier); result rounded up
Oldham Athletic AFC Df Attacks = 2 ((50 - 37) / 5) * 0.5 (Play For Draw Multiplier); result rounded up
Oldham Athletic AFC Total Attacks = 4

1: Attack for Df Douglass Ford
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 45 (Sw stopped attack) 
2: Attack for Df Sam Morrissey
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 41 (Sw stopped attack) 
3: Attack for Mf Leo Marino
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 88 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 23 (Shot Off Target) 
4: Attack for Mf Leo Marino
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 42 (Sw stopped attack) 

*******  SOUTHEND UNITED ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
  AREA TOTALS             GK  Sw  Df  Mf  Fw
  -------------------------------------------
  Southend United          16  15  47  34  37
  Oldham Athletic AFC      12   0  50  40  40

Southend United Fw Attacks = 0 (37 - 50)
Southend United Mf Attacks = 0 ((34 - 40) / 2;  rounded up)
Southend United Df Attacks = 3 ((47 - 40) / 3); result rounded up
Southend United Total Attacks = 3

1: Attack for Df Finley Cockayne
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Oldham Athletic AFC
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 68 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 67.0% | Random number = 86.54 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 
2: Attack for Df Julio  Rojas
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Oldham Athletic AFC
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 85 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 67.0% | Random number = 53.98 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
3: Attack for Df Riccardo Lombardi
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Oldham Athletic AFC
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 68 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 67.0% | Random number = 55.86 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
===============================================
     F  I  N  A  L         S  C  O  R  E
OLDHAM ATHLETIC AFC 0  -  SOUTHEND UNITED 1
 
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