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Oldham Athletic AFC
Tim Batth
 
Bristol City FC
Ellis Simpson
 
 
League Round 17
 
 
 
 

S  T  A  R  T  I  N  G      L  I  N  E  U  P  S

OLDHAM ATHLETIC AFC                        BRISTOL CITY FC

Ps Player Name            SL  FIT  LVL     Ps Player Name            SL  FIT  LVL
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gk Ethan Chambers         14    2   16     Gk Noah Godart            16    2   18
Df Thomas Murray          16    0   16     Df Matteo Maggioni        14    2   16
Df Douglas Souza          17    0   17     Df Oliver Hills           13    2   15
Df Sam Morrissey          14    0   14     Df Paul Brides            12    2   14
Df Douglass Ford          12    2   14     Df Jason Welch            12    2   14
Mf Greg Pastor            15    0   15     Mf Carrington Kennedy     14    2   16
Mf Marco Costa            15    0   15     Mf Alistair Barnes        14    2   16
Mf Leo Marino             13    0   13     Mf Joe Hopkins            13    2   15
Mf Henry Pagett           10    2   12     Mf Rafael  Torres          9    2   11
Fw Carl Henriksson        14    1   15     Fw Aaron Allan            14    2   16
Fw Owen Milne              7    2    9     Fw Lennon Stewart         16    1   17

      Gk Sw Df Mf Fw   A R E A  T O T A L S    Gk Sw Df Mf Fw
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
      16  0 61 55 24        ROSTER TOTALS      18  0 59 58 33    
       0  0  1  0  0          HARDNESS          0  0  0  0  0    
       0  0  3  0  6       HOME ADVANTAGE       0  0  0  0  0    
       0  0  0  0  0  GREAT PERFORMANCE POINTS  0  0  0  5  0    
       0  0  0  0  0        PLAY FOR DRAW       0  0  0  0  0    
=======================================================================
      16  0 65 55 30         T O T A L S       18  0 59 63 33    

============================================================================
============================================================================
B  O  O  K  I  N  G  S

Each player is next given a chance for a yellow/red card.  The first
number listed is the chance for the player to get the yellow/red
card while the second number shows the random number drawn.  If the 
random number is less than or equal to the player's yellow/red card 
chance then the player is sent off.  Note that the chances are as follows:
	- Booking: 1.5 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness))
	- Red Card: 0.25 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness)))

If a player is booked we immediately draw a second number to check
for a 'second yellow' (red card chance) resulting in a sending off.
If a player is not booked we draw a red card chance to see if the player
was given a straight red card.  Note that the aforementioned formula
differs for a Gk where the formula uses the hardness points added to
your Gk area and NOT the team hardness points.

*******  OLDHAM ATHLETIC AFC YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
   - Team Hardness = 1
   - Gk   Hardness = 0

Gk Ethan Chambers: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 8.05 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 72.32 (no red card)

Df Thomas Murray: Chance of booking = 6.75% | Random number = 10.39 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.12% | Random number = 73.3 (no red card)

Df Douglas Souza: Chance of booking = 6.75% | Random number = 88.88 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.12% | Random number = 52.61 (no red card)

Df Sam Morrissey: Chance of booking = 6.75% | Random number = 89.36 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.12% | Random number = 97.55 (no red card)

Df Douglass Ford: Chance of booking = 6.75% | Random number = 11.76 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.12% | Random number = 11.1 (no red card)

Mf Greg Pastor: Chance of booking = 6.75% | Random number = 70.63 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.12% | Random number = 0.97 (STRAIGHT RED CARD! SENT OFF!!!)
      Greg Pastor new match skill level =  8
      Greg Pastor new match total level =  8

Mf Marco Costa: Chance of booking = 6.75% | Random number = 54.63 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.12% | Random number = 69.54 (no red card)

Mf Leo Marino: Chance of booking = 6.75% | Random number = 36.99 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.12% | Random number = 34.35 (no red card)

Mf Henry Pagett: Chance of booking = 6.75% | Random number = 9.77 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.12% | Random number = 10.18 (no red card)

Fw Carl Henriksson: Chance of booking = 6.75% | Random number = 16.16 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.12% | Random number = 79.79 (no red card)

Fw Owen Milne: Chance of booking = 6.75% | Random number = 16.93 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.12% | Random number = 96.96 (no red card)

*******  BRISTOL CITY FC YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
   - Team Hardness = 0
   - Gk   Hardness = 0

Gk Noah Godart: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 56.9 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 73.92 (no red card)

Df Matteo Maggioni: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 42.39 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 15.04 (no red card)

Df Oliver Hills: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 98.24 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 74.29 (no red card)

Df Paul Brides: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 56.93 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 82.15 (no red card)

Df Jason Welch: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 47.99 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 23.26 (no red card)

Mf Carrington Kennedy: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 42.2 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 53.6 (no red card)

Mf Alistair Barnes: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 60.58 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 86.43 (no red card)

Mf Joe Hopkins: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 97.66 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 98.62 (no red card)

Mf Rafael  Torres: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 47.71 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 51.49 (no red card)

Fw Aaron Allan: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 82.82 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 54.11 (no red card)

Fw Lennon Stewart: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 1.69 (BOOKED!) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 68.78 (no second yellow)
============================================================================
============================================================================
I  N  J  U  R  I  E  S

A major consequence of hardness is that your opponents get injured. 
For each player the chance of injury is:   
  ((your teamís hardness * .25) + (opponentís hardness * .75) + 2.5)%.
    For example if your team has a hardness of 8 and the opposition has a hardness of 4,
    the chance of injury for each player would be: 2 + 3 + 2.5 or 7.5%.

The chance is halved for the opposition Gk. A player plays at half 
his normal level (skill plus fitness) in the match in which he is injured.

Injured players lose fitness as a result, the amount of fitness lost being
shown on the game report in brackets. There is a 30% chance of no fitness loss,
15% chance of 1 level fitness lost, 15% of 2 levels, and a 10% chance
of each of 3,4,5, or 6 fitness levels being lost. 
This fitness loss (if any) takes place at the end of the session, for 
reasons of simplicity. Should a player be injured twice or
more in a session, only the most severe injury will apply.


*******  OLDHAM ATHLETIC AFC CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
   - Oldham Athletic AFC Team Hardness = 1
   - Bristol City FC Team Hardness = 0
   - All (except Gk) chance of injury = 2.75%
   - Gk chance of injury = 1.37%
Gk Ethan Chambers: Chance of injury = 1.37% | Random number = 29.98 (no injury) 
Df Thomas Murray: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 88.77 (no injury) 
Df Douglas Souza: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 90.96 (no injury) 
Df Sam Morrissey: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 79.07 (no injury) 
Df Douglass Ford: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 32.95 (no injury) 
Mf Greg Pastor: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 45.3 (no injury) 
Mf Marco Costa: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 85.25 (no injury) 
Mf Leo Marino: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 24.55 (no injury) 
Mf Henry Pagett: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 72.93 (no injury) 
Fw Carl Henriksson: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 65.09 (no injury) 
Fw Owen Milne: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 40.09 (no injury) 

*******  BRISTOL CITY FC CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
   - Bristol City FC Team Hardness = 0
   - Oldham Athletic AFC Team Hardness = 1
   - All (except Gk) chance of injury = 3.25%
   - Gk chance of injury = 1.62%
Gk Noah Godart: Chance of injury = 1.62% | Random number = 28.98 (no injury) 
Df Matteo Maggioni: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 70.89 (no injury) 
Df Oliver Hills: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 41.01 (no injury) 
Df Paul Brides: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 83.6 (no injury) 
Df Jason Welch: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 17.47 (no injury) 
Mf Carrington Kennedy: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 59.8 (no injury) 
Mf Alistair Barnes: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 94.19 (no injury) 
Mf Joe Hopkins: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 66.4 (no injury) 
Mf Rafael  Torres: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 66.51 (no injury) 
Fw Aaron Allan: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 34.79 (no injury) 
Fw Lennon Stewart: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 29.39 (no injury) 
============================================================================
============================================================================
P  E  N  A  L  T  Y     K  I  C  K  S

There is a 10% chance of conceding a penalty for every hardness point used.
Each 10% chance is separate, so a team could concede as many penalties as it plays
hardness points. If no hardness is used, there is still a 5% penalty chance. 
The chance of a penalty being scored is: 
  50 + (4 x penalty takers skill) - (2 x Gk skill)  %    (to a maximum 95%)

*******  BRISTOL CITY FC CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
   - Team Hardness: 0; (1 5% chance of yielding a PK)
   - PK Taker: Douglas Souza SL 17
   - Defending Gk: Noah Godart SL 16

     intRndPk = 11
1: Chance of PK occurring = 5% | Random number = 11 (no penalty kick)

*******  OLDHAM ATHLETIC AFC CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
   - Team Hardness: 1; (1 10% chance of yielding a PK)
   - PK Taker: Lennon Stewart SL 16
   - Defending Gk: Ethan Chambers SL 14

1: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 20 (no penalty kick)
============================================================================
============================================================================
A  T  T  A  C  K  I  N  G      C  H  A  N  C  E  S      &      S  H  O  T  S

  (i)   If team A's Fw area total is greater than team B's Df area total, 
        then A earns a number of attacks equal to the difference.
        Note: A Sw  does NOT add his levels to the Df in this league! 

  (ii)  The team with the highest Mf area total gets attacks equal to half
        the difference.

  (iii) If team A's Df area total is greater than team B's Fw total, then  
        team A earns a number of attacks equal to one fifth of the difference.
        If team A is playing a sweeper behind the defence, this rises to one 
        third of the difference.  All fractions of attacks are rounded up, 
        and then each of the attacks is treated as follows to see how many 
        produce shots, then goals: 

  (iv)  Attacks have first to beat the Sw (if playing!).  For each attack,
        there is a percentage chance of it being stopped equal to:
              30 + (Sw level x 2) % 
        (eg a level 10 Sw stops 30+10x2=50% of attacks.) Attacks passing the 
        Sw become shots.

  (v)   Each shot has a 35% chance of being off-target. If a side has scored
        2 goals this rises to 40%, then by a further 5% after each goal scored,
        to a maximum of 75%. This is to curb ridiculous scorelines (with luck!)

  (vi)  Finally, on-target shots come up against the  Gk. This is similar to 
        the Sw test, but the percentage is:
        40 + (Gk level x 2.25) % 

  Notes: If the defense is playing offside trap then the offensive team has
         their Fw attacks cut in half and theor Mf attacks doubled.

         A team choosing to PFD has 7 extra levels to split between Sw, 
         Df and Mf areas, but their attacks for each area will be halved 
         (round up fractions).

*******  OLDHAM ATHLETIC AFC ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
  AREA TOTALS             GK  Sw  Df  Mf  Fw
  -------------------------------------------
  Oldham Athletic AFC      16   0  65  48  30
  Bristol City FC          18   0  59  63  33

Bristol City FC is using Offside Trap!
Oldham Athletic AFC Fw Attacks = 0 (30 - 59)
Oldham Athletic AFC Mf Attacks = 0 ((48 - 63) / 2;  rounded up)
Oldham Athletic AFC Df Attacks = 7 ((65 - 33) / 5); result rounded up
Oldham Athletic AFC Total Attacks = 7

1: Attack for Df Sam Morrissey
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Bristol City FC
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 4 (Shot Off Target) 
2: Attack for Df Sam Morrissey
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Bristol City FC
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 12 (Shot Off Target) 
3: Attack for Df Sam Morrissey
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Bristol City FC
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 77 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 80.5% | Random number = 3.59 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
4: Attack for Df Thomas Murray
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Bristol City FC
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 14 (Shot Off Target) 
5: Attack for Df Douglas Souza
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Bristol City FC
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 91 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 80.5% | Random number = 25.88 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
6: Attack for Df Douglas Souza
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Bristol City FC
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 45 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 80.5% | Random number = 94.5 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 
7: Attack for Df Douglas Souza
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Bristol City FC
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 19 (Shot Off Target) 

*******  BRISTOL CITY FC ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
  AREA TOTALS             GK  Sw  Df  Mf  Fw
  -------------------------------------------
  Bristol City FC          18   0  59  63  33
  Oldham Athletic AFC      16   0  65  48  30

Bristol City FC Fw Attacks = 0 (33 - 65)
Bristol City FC Mf Attacks = 8 ((63 - 48) / 2) ; result rounded up
Bristol City FC Df Attacks = 6 ((59 - 30) / 5); result rounded up
Bristol City FC Total Attacks = 14

1: Attack for Df Jason Welch
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Oldham Athletic AFC
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 47 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 76.0% | Random number = 73.0 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
2: Attack for Df Paul Brides
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Oldham Athletic AFC
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 15 (Shot Off Target) 
3: Attack for Df Matteo Maggioni
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Oldham Athletic AFC
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 97 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 76.0% | Random number = 55.26 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
4: Attack for Df Jason Welch
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Oldham Athletic AFC
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 1 (Shot Off Target) 
5: Attack for Df Oliver Hills
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Oldham Athletic AFC
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 58 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 76.0% | Random number = 32.05 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
6: Attack for Df Paul Brides
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Oldham Athletic AFC
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 14 (Shot Off Target) 
7: Attack for Mf Rafael  Torres
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Oldham Athletic AFC
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 98 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 76.0% | Random number = 3.38 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
8: Attack for Mf Alistair Barnes
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Oldham Athletic AFC
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 79 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 76.0% | Random number = 51.63 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
9: Attack for Mf Alistair Barnes
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Oldham Athletic AFC
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 38 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 76.0% | Random number = 16.64 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
10: Attack for Mf Alistair Barnes
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Oldham Athletic AFC
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 63 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 76.0% | Random number = 86.88 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 
11: Attack for Mf Carrington Kennedy
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Oldham Athletic AFC
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 56 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 76.0% | Random number = 1.89 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
12: Attack for Mf Carrington Kennedy
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Oldham Athletic AFC
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 39 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 76.0% | Random number = 34.83 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
13: Attack for Mf Rafael  Torres
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Oldham Athletic AFC
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 92 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 76.0% | Random number = 13.95 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
14: Attack for Mf Alistair Barnes
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Oldham Athletic AFC
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 59 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 76.0% | Random number = 18.35 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
===============================================
     F  I  N  A  L         S  C  O  R  E
OLDHAM ATHLETIC AFC 1  -  BRISTOL CITY FC 1
 
Match Notes
Would be good to squeeze something out of this fixture, somehow.
Ellis (Bristol City FC) 09/29 - 9:08 PM
Will take the draw. Could have sneaked the win.
Ellis (Bristol City FC) 10/06 - 6:28 PM
 
 
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