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Friday, May 25th, 2018 - 12:32:36 PM (gmt)
 
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Brighton & Hove Albion
Mike Mcleod
 
Derby County
Rob Baptiste
 
 
League Round 15
 
 
 
 

S  T  A  R  T  I  N  G      L  I  N  E  U  P  S

BRIGHTON & HOVE ALBION                     DERBY COUNTY

Ps Player Name            SL  FIT  LVL     Ps Player Name            SL  FIT  LVL
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gk Felix Blucher           5    2    7     Gk Frank Walker           10    2   12
Sw Nicolas  Pérez         10    1   11     Df Francis Carter          0    2    0
Df Louie Peters           13    0   13     Df Emilio Rossi            8    2   10
Df Ethan Grand             9    2   11     Df Rhys Robinson          12    2   14
Df Raphaël Deshayes        8    1    9     Mf Saburo Kato            10    2   12
Mf Noah Evans              9    2   11     Df Jimmy Park              8   -1    7
Mf Gianluca Bruno          9    2   11     Df Owen Thompson           4    2    6
Fw Zachary Pilkington     12    1   13     Df Noah Craig              4    2    6
Fw Manuel Maldonado       12    1   13     Mf Wayne Mitchell         16   -2   14
Fw Aidan Smith            10    1   11     Fw Reece McGregor         14    2   16
Fw Ollie Morrissey        10    2   12     Fw Glenn Anderson          6    2    8

      Gk Sw Df Mf Fw   A R E A  T O T A L S    Gk Sw Df Mf Fw
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
       7 11 33 22 49        ROSTER TOTALS      12  0 43 26 24    
       0  0  0  0  0          HARDNESS          5  0  0  5  0    
       0  0  0  9  0       HOME ADVANTAGE       0  0  0  0  0    
       0  0  0  0  0  GREAT PERFORMANCE POINTS  0  0  0  0  0    
       0  0  0  0  0        PLAY FOR DRAW       0  0  5  2  0    
=======================================================================
       7 11 33 31 49         T O T A L S       17  0 48 33 24    

============================================================================
============================================================================
B  O  O  K  I  N  G  S

Each player is next given a chance for a yellow/red card.  The first
number listed is the chance for the player to get the yellow/red
card while the second number shows the random number drawn.  If the 
random number is less than or equal to the player's yellow/red card 
chance then the player is sent off.  Note that the chances are as follows:
	- Booking: 1.5 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness))
	- Red Card: 0.25 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness)))

If a player is booked we immediately draw a second number to check
for a 'second yellow' (red card chance) resulting in a sending off.
If a player is not booked we draw a red card chance to see if the player
was given a straight red card.  Note that the aforementioned formula
differs for a Gk where the formula uses the hardness points added to
your Gk area and NOT the team hardness points.

*******  BRIGHTON & HOVE ALBION YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
   - Team Hardness = 0
   - Gk   Hardness = 0

Gk Felix Blucher: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 99.8 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 98.06 (no red card)

Sw Nicolas  Pérez: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 96.3 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 20.5 (no red card)

Df Louie Peters: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 81.86 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 6.63 (no red card)

Df Ethan Grand: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 47.21 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 11.53 (no red card)

Df Raphaël Deshayes: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 45.02 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 93.89 (no red card)

Mf Noah Evans: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 3.01 (BOOKED!) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 77.0 (no second yellow)

Mf Gianluca Bruno: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 11.18 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 86.63 (no red card)

Fw Zachary Pilkington: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 51.01 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 70.16 (no red card)

Fw Manuel Maldonado: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 19.26 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 33.83 (no red card)

Fw Aidan Smith: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 18.41 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 76.23 (no red card)

Fw Ollie Morrissey: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 48.32 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 94.03 (no red card)

*******  DERBY COUNTY YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
   - Team Hardness = 10
   - Gk   Hardness = 5

Gk Frank Walker: Chance of booking = 15.75% | Random number = 60.5 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 2.625% | Random number = 20.51 (no red card)

Df Francis Carter: Chance of booking = 27.0% | Random number = 95.75 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 4.5% | Random number = 13.41 (no red card)

Df Emilio Rossi: Chance of booking = 27.0% | Random number = 19.68 (BOOKED!) 
   Chance of second booking = 4.5% | Random number = 24.67 (no second yellow)

Df Rhys Robinson: Chance of booking = 27.0% | Random number = 42.45 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 4.5% | Random number = 22.79 (no red card)

Mf Saburo Kato: Chance of booking = 27.0% | Random number = 4.54 (BOOKED!) 
   Chance of second booking = 4.5% | Random number = 64.72 (no second yellow)

Df Jimmy Park: Chance of booking = 27.0% | Random number = 50.61 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 4.5% | Random number = 41.82 (no red card)

Df Owen Thompson: Chance of booking = 27.0% | Random number = 31.99 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 4.5% | Random number = 86.82 (no red card)

Df Noah Craig: Chance of booking = 27.0% | Random number = 79.55 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 4.5% | Random number = 7.78 (no red card)

Mf Wayne Mitchell: Chance of booking = 27.0% | Random number = 83.7 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 4.5% | Random number = 83.4 (no red card)

Fw Reece McGregor: Chance of booking = 27.0% | Random number = 88.31 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 4.5% | Random number = 26.63 (no red card)

Fw Glenn Anderson: Chance of booking = 27.0% | Random number = 69.37 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 4.5% | Random number = 31.12 (no red card)
============================================================================
============================================================================
I  N  J  U  R  I  E  S

A major consequence of hardness is that your opponents get injured. 
For each player the chance of injury is:   
  ((your team’s hardness * .25) + (opponent’s hardness * .75) + 2.5)%.
    For example if your team has a hardness of 8 and the opposition has a hardness of 4,
    the chance of injury for each player would be: 2 + 3 + 2.5 or 7.5%.

The chance is halved for the opposition Gk. A player plays at half 
his normal level (skill plus fitness) in the match in which he is injured.

Injured players lose fitness as a result, the amount of fitness lost being
shown on the game report in brackets. There is a 30% chance of no fitness loss,
15% chance of 1 level fitness lost, 15% of 2 levels, and a 10% chance
of each of 3,4,5, or 6 fitness levels being lost. 
This fitness loss (if any) takes place at the end of the session, for 
reasons of simplicity. Should a player be injured twice or
more in a session, only the most severe injury will apply.


*******  BRIGHTON & HOVE ALBION CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
   - Brighton & Hove Albion Team Hardness = 0
   - Derby County Team Hardness = 10
   - All (except Gk) chance of injury = 10.0%
   - Gk chance of injury = 5.0%
Gk Felix Blucher: Chance of injury = 5.0% | Random number = 52.43 (no injury) 
Sw Nicolas  Pérez: Chance of injury = 10.0% | Random number = 2.88 (INJURED!) 
      Targeted fitness lost = 0
      Nicolas  Pérez loses 0 fitness points (deducted at end of session)
      Nicolas  Pérez new match skill level =  5
      Nicolas  Pérez new match total level =  6
Df Louie Peters: Chance of injury = 10.0% | Random number = 43.16 (no injury) 
Df Ethan Grand: Chance of injury = 10.0% | Random number = 84.66 (no injury) 
Df Raphaël Deshayes: Chance of injury = 10.0% | Random number = 69.25 (no injury) 
Mf Noah Evans: Chance of injury = 10.0% | Random number = 91.51 (no injury) 
Mf Gianluca Bruno: Chance of injury = 10.0% | Random number = 32.61 (no injury) 
Fw Zachary Pilkington: Chance of injury = 10.0% | Random number = 13.05 (no injury) 
Fw Manuel Maldonado: Chance of injury = 10.0% | Random number = 88.93 (no injury) 
Fw Aidan Smith: Chance of injury = 10.0% | Random number = 60.15 (no injury) 
Fw Ollie Morrissey: Chance of injury = 10.0% | Random number = 97.88 (no injury) 

*******  DERBY COUNTY CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
   - Derby County Team Hardness = 10
   - Brighton & Hove Albion Team Hardness = 0
   - All (except Gk) chance of injury = 5.0%
   - Gk chance of injury = 2.5%
Gk Frank Walker: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 61.76 (no injury) 
Df Francis Carter: Chance of injury = 5.0% | Random number = 94.57 (no injury) 
Df Emilio Rossi: Chance of injury = 5.0% | Random number = 29.49 (no injury) 
Df Rhys Robinson: Chance of injury = 5.0% | Random number = 95.23 (no injury) 
Mf Saburo Kato: Chance of injury = 5.0% | Random number = 6.85 (no injury) 
Df Jimmy Park: Chance of injury = 5.0% | Random number = 5.68 (no injury) 
Df Owen Thompson: Chance of injury = 5.0% | Random number = 15.39 (no injury) 
Df Noah Craig: Chance of injury = 5.0% | Random number = 57.36 (no injury) 
Mf Wayne Mitchell: Chance of injury = 5.0% | Random number = 69.56 (no injury) 
Fw Reece McGregor: Chance of injury = 5.0% | Random number = 84.62 (no injury) 
Fw Glenn Anderson: Chance of injury = 5.0% | Random number = 1.16 (INJURED!) 
      Targeted fitness lost = 0
      Glenn Anderson is being assisted by the Physio and appears to be just fine.
============================================================================
============================================================================
P  E  N  A  L  T  Y     K  I  C  K  S

There is a 10% chance of conceding a penalty for every hardness point used.
Each 10% chance is separate, so a team could concede as many penalties as it plays
hardness points. If no hardness is used, there is still a 5% penalty chance. 
The chance of a penalty being scored is: 
  50 + (4 x penalty takers skill) - (2 x Gk skill)  %    (to a maximum 95%)

*******  DERBY COUNTY CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
   - Team Hardness: 10; (10 10% chances of yielding PKs)
   - PK Taker: Louie Peters SL 13
   - Defending Gk: Frank Walker SL 10

1: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 18 (no penalty kick)
2: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 42 (no penalty kick)
3: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 95 (no penalty kick)
4: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 74 (no penalty kick)
5: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 28 (no penalty kick)
6: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 4 (PENALTY KICK!)
   Chance of scoring = 82% | Random number = 72 (PENALTY KICK GOOOAAALLL!!!)
7: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 92 (no penalty kick)
8: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 9 (PENALTY KICK!)
   Chance of scoring = 82% | Random number = 42 (PENALTY KICK GOOOAAALLL!!!)
9: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 43 (no penalty kick)
10: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 68 (no penalty kick)

*******  BRIGHTON & HOVE ALBION CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
   - Team Hardness: 0; (1 5% chance of yielding a PK)
   - PK Taker: Wayne Mitchell SL 16
   - Defending Gk: Felix Blucher SL 5

     intRndPk = 90
1: Chance of PK occurring = 5% | Random number = 90 (no penalty kick)
============================================================================
============================================================================
A  T  T  A  C  K  I  N  G      C  H  A  N  C  E  S      &      S  H  O  T  S

  (i)   If team A's Fw area total is greater than team B's Df area total, 
        then A earns a number of attacks equal to the difference.
        Note: A Sw  does NOT add his levels to the Df in this league! 

  (ii)  The team with the highest Mf area total gets attacks equal to half
        the difference.

  (iii) If team A's Df area total is greater than team B's Fw total, then  
        team A earns a number of attacks equal to one fifth of the difference.
        If team A is playing a sweeper behind the defence, this rises to one 
        third of the difference.  All fractions of attacks are rounded up, 
        and then each of the attacks is treated as follows to see how many 
        produce shots, then goals: 

  (iv)  Attacks have first to beat the Sw (if playing!).  For each attack,
        there is a percentage chance of it being stopped equal to:
              30 + (Sw level x 2) % 
        (eg a level 10 Sw stops 30+10x2=50% of attacks.) Attacks passing the 
        Sw become shots.

  (v)   Each shot has a 35% chance of being off-target. If a side has scored
        2 goals this rises to 40%, then by a further 5% after each goal scored,
        to a maximum of 75%. This is to curb ridiculous scorelines (with luck!)

  (vi)  Finally, on-target shots come up against the  Gk. This is similar to 
        the Sw test, but the percentage is:
        40 + (Gk level x 2.25) % 

  Notes: If the defense is playing offside trap then the offensive team has
         their Fw attacks cut in half and theor Mf attacks doubled.

         A team choosing to PFD has 7 extra levels to split between Sw, 
         Df and Mf areas, but their attacks for each area will be halved 
         (round up fractions).

*******  BRIGHTON & HOVE ALBION ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
  AREA TOTALS             GK  Sw  Df  Mf  Fw
  -------------------------------------------
  Brighton & Hove Albion   7   6  33  31  49
  Derby County             17   0  48  33  24

Derby County is using Offside Trap!
Brighton & Hove Albion Fw Attacks = 1 (49 - 48) * 0.5 (OST Multiplier) ; result rounded up
Brighton & Hove Albion Mf Attacks = 0 ((31 - 33) / 2;  rounded up)
Brighton & Hove Albion Df Attacks = 3 ((33 - 24) / 3); result rounded up
Brighton & Hove Albion Total Attacks = 4

1: Attack for Df Louie Peters
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Derby County
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 91 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 78.25% | Random number = 65.62 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
2: Attack for Df Raphaël Deshayes
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Derby County
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 18 (Shot Off Target) 
3: Attack for Df Ethan Grand
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Derby County
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 21 (Shot Off Target) 
4: Attack for Fw Ollie Morrissey
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Derby County
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 36 (Shot Off Target) 

*******  DERBY COUNTY ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
  AREA TOTALS             GK  Sw  Df  Mf  Fw
  -------------------------------------------
  Derby County             17   0  48  33  24
  Brighton & Hove Albion   7   6  33  31  49

Derby County is Playing For A Draw!
Derby County Fw Attacks = 0 (24 - 33)
Derby County Mf Attacks = 1 ((33 - 31) / 2)  * 0.5 (Play For Draw Multiplier); result rounded up
Derby County Df Attacks = 0 ((48 - 49) / 5;  rounded up)
Derby County Total Attacks = 1

1: Attack for Mf Wayne Mitchell
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 42% | Random number = 17 (Sw stopped attack) 
===============================================
     F  I  N  A  L         S  C  O  R  E
BRIGHTON & HOVE ALBION 2  -  DERBY COUNTY 0
 
Match Notes
People were surprisingly right. Had to keep up the bully image though.
Rob (Derby County) 05/23 - 10:05 AM
 
 
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