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Swindon Town FC
Matt White
 
Derby County
Rob Baptiste
 
 
League Round 14
 
 
 
 

S  T  A  R  T  I  N  G      L  I  N  E  U  P  S

SWINDON TOWN FC                            DERBY COUNTY

Ps Player Name            SL  FIT  LVL     Ps Player Name            SL  FIT  LVL
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gk Donald Hill            12    0   12     Gk Francis Carter         15    1   16
Sw Mark Bryant             9    2   11     Df Gabriel Bateman         6    2    8
Df Fernando Renteria      15    0   15     Sw Jimmy Park             13    2   15
Df Sean Oliver            12    0   12     Df Connor East            12    2   14
Df Aiden Henderson        10    2   12     Fw Wayne Mitchell         17    2   19
Mf Brad Nguyen            10   -1    9     Mf Harrison Dixon         13    2   15
Mf Jamie Calhoun          10    0   10     Mf Pedro Rodrigues         9    2   11
Mf Kristoffer Larsen       8    2   10     Fw Alexander Burns        12    2   14
Mf Thomás Gouveia          8    2   10     Fw Reece McGregor         12    2   14
Fw Jack Stretch           13    0   13     Fw Jake McBrayne           9    2   11
Fw Alistair Lorimar       10    0   10     Fw Baptiste Lemmens        4    2    6

      Gk Sw Df Mf Fw   A R E A  T O T A L S    Gk Sw Df Mf Fw
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
      12 11 39 39 23        ROSTER TOTALS      16 15 22 26 64    
       2  2  0  0  1          HARDNESS          0  0  0  0  0    
       0  0  3  2  2       HOME ADVANTAGE       0  0  0  0  0    
       0  0  0  0  0  GREAT PERFORMANCE POINTS  1  1  0  0  0    
       0  0  0  0  0        PLAY FOR DRAW       0  0  0  0  0    
=======================================================================
      14 13 42 41 26         T O T A L S       17 16 22 26 64    

============================================================================
============================================================================
B  O  O  K  I  N  G  S

Each player is next given a chance for a yellow/red card.  The first
number listed is the chance for the player to get the yellow/red
card while the second number shows the random number drawn.  If the 
random number is less than or equal to the player's yellow/red card 
chance then the player is sent off.  Note that the chances are as follows:
	- Booking: 1.5 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness))
	- Red Card: 0.25 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness)))

If a player is booked we immediately draw a second number to check
for a 'second yellow' (red card chance) resulting in a sending off.
If a player is not booked we draw a red card chance to see if the player
was given a straight red card.  Note that the aforementioned formula
differs for a Gk where the formula uses the hardness points added to
your Gk area and NOT the team hardness points.

*******  SWINDON TOWN FC YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
   - Team Hardness = 5
   - Gk   Hardness = 2

Gk Donald Hill: Chance of booking = 9.0% | Random number = 15.12 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.5% | Random number = 9.18 (no red card)

Sw Mark Bryant: Chance of booking = 15.75% | Random number = 88.4 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 2.62% | Random number = 80.69 (no red card)

Df Fernando Renteria: Chance of booking = 15.75% | Random number = 1.21 (BOOKED!) 
   Chance of second booking = 2.62% | Random number = 33.76 (no second yellow)

Df Sean Oliver: Chance of booking = 15.75% | Random number = 56.51 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 2.62% | Random number = 64.79 (no red card)

Df Aiden Henderson: Chance of booking = 15.75% | Random number = 75.04 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 2.62% | Random number = 40.89 (no red card)

Mf Brad Nguyen: Chance of booking = 15.75% | Random number = 97.64 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 2.62% | Random number = 94.27 (no red card)

Mf Jamie Calhoun: Chance of booking = 15.75% | Random number = 19.2 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 2.62% | Random number = 5.24 (no red card)

Mf Kristoffer Larsen: Chance of booking = 15.75% | Random number = 6.26 (BOOKED!) 
   Chance of second booking = 2.62% | Random number = 83.82 (no second yellow)

Mf Thomás Gouveia: Chance of booking = 15.75% | Random number = 14.23 (BOOKED!) 
   Chance of second booking = 2.62% | Random number = 62.62 (no second yellow)

Fw Jack Stretch: Chance of booking = 15.75% | Random number = 14.36 (BOOKED!) 
   Chance of second booking = 2.62% | Random number = 50.74 (no second yellow)

Fw Alistair Lorimar: Chance of booking = 15.75% | Random number = 56.54 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 2.62% | Random number = 36.67 (no red card)

*******  DERBY COUNTY YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
   - Team Hardness = 0
   - Gk   Hardness = 0

Gk Francis Carter: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 55.5 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 44.46 (no red card)

Df Gabriel Bateman: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 92.73 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 68.71 (no red card)

Sw Jimmy Park: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 11.96 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 68.63 (no red card)

Df Connor East: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 61.78 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 0.91 (no red card)

Fw Wayne Mitchell: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 50.83 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 20.35 (no red card)

Mf Harrison Dixon: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 93.5 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 7.05 (no red card)

Mf Pedro Rodrigues: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 62.71 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 15.57 (no red card)

Fw Alexander Burns: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 6.33 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 20.86 (no red card)

Fw Reece McGregor: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 95.83 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 42.98 (no red card)

Fw Jake McBrayne: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 59.49 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 3.24 (no red card)

Fw Baptiste Lemmens: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 26.45 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 55.27 (no red card)
============================================================================
============================================================================
I  N  J  U  R  I  E  S

A major consequence of hardness is that your opponents get injured. 
For each player the chance of injury is:   
  ((your team’s hardness * .25) + (opponent’s hardness * .75) + 2.5)%.
    For example if your team has a hardness of 8 and the opposition has a hardness of 4,
    the chance of injury for each player would be: 2 + 3 + 2.5 or 7.5%.

The chance is halved for the opposition Gk. A player plays at half 
his normal level (skill plus fitness) in the match in which he is injured.

Injured players lose fitness as a result, the amount of fitness lost being
shown on the game report in brackets. There is a 30% chance of no fitness loss,
15% chance of 1 level fitness lost, 15% of 2 levels, and a 10% chance
of each of 3,4,5, or 6 fitness levels being lost. 
This fitness loss (if any) takes place at the end of the session, for 
reasons of simplicity. Should a player be injured twice or
more in a session, only the most severe injury will apply.


*******  SWINDON TOWN FC CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
   - Swindon Town FC Team Hardness = 5
   - Derby County Team Hardness = 0
   - All (except Gk) chance of injury = 3.75%
   - Gk chance of injury = 1.87%
Gk Donald Hill: Chance of injury = 1.87% | Random number = 19.21 (no injury) 
Sw Mark Bryant: Chance of injury = 3.75% | Random number = 94.57 (no injury) 
Df Fernando Renteria: Chance of injury = 3.75% | Random number = 68.71 (no injury) 
Df Sean Oliver: Chance of injury = 3.75% | Random number = 20.61 (no injury) 
Df Aiden Henderson: Chance of injury = 3.75% | Random number = 69.44 (no injury) 
Mf Brad Nguyen: Chance of injury = 3.75% | Random number = 83.47 (no injury) 
Mf Jamie Calhoun: Chance of injury = 3.75% | Random number = 88.98 (no injury) 
Mf Kristoffer Larsen: Chance of injury = 3.75% | Random number = 33.23 (no injury) 
Mf Thomás Gouveia: Chance of injury = 3.75% | Random number = 58.33 (no injury) 
Fw Jack Stretch: Chance of injury = 3.75% | Random number = 24.09 (no injury) 
Fw Alistair Lorimar: Chance of injury = 3.75% | Random number = 78.67 (no injury) 

*******  DERBY COUNTY CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
   - Derby County Team Hardness = 0
   - Swindon Town FC Team Hardness = 5
   - All (except Gk) chance of injury = 6.25%
   - Gk chance of injury = 3.12%
Gk Francis Carter: Chance of injury = 3.12% | Random number = 45.56 (no injury) 
Df Gabriel Bateman: Chance of injury = 6.25% | Random number = 43.81 (no injury) 
Sw Jimmy Park: Chance of injury = 6.25% | Random number = 44.56 (no injury) 
Df Connor East: Chance of injury = 6.25% | Random number = 31.54 (no injury) 
Fw Wayne Mitchell: Chance of injury = 6.25% | Random number = 28.59 (no injury) 
Mf Harrison Dixon: Chance of injury = 6.25% | Random number = 98.22 (no injury) 
Mf Pedro Rodrigues: Chance of injury = 6.25% | Random number = 23.75 (no injury) 
Fw Alexander Burns: Chance of injury = 6.25% | Random number = 54.65 (no injury) 
Fw Reece McGregor: Chance of injury = 6.25% | Random number = 23.97 (no injury) 
Fw Jake McBrayne: Chance of injury = 6.25% | Random number = 58.72 (no injury) 
Fw Baptiste Lemmens: Chance of injury = 6.25% | Random number = 37.84 (no injury) 
============================================================================
============================================================================
P  E  N  A  L  T  Y     K  I  C  K  S

There is a 10% chance of conceding a penalty for every hardness point used.
Each 10% chance is separate, so a team could concede as many penalties as it plays
hardness points. If no hardness is used, there is still a 5% penalty chance. 
The chance of a penalty being scored is: 
  50 + (4 x penalty takers skill) - (2 x Gk skill)  %    (to a maximum 95%)

*******  DERBY COUNTY CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
   - Team Hardness: 0; (1 5% chance of yielding a PK)
   - PK Taker: Fernando Renteria SL 15
   - Defending Gk: Francis Carter SL 15

     intRndPk = 57
1: Chance of PK occurring = 5% | Random number = 57 (no penalty kick)

*******  SWINDON TOWN FC CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
   - Team Hardness: 5; (5 10% chances of yielding PKs)
   - PK Taker: Wayne Mitchell SL 17
   - Defending Gk: Donald Hill SL 12

1: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 3 (PENALTY KICK!)
   Chance of scoring = 94% | Random number = 30 (PENALTY KICK GOOOAAALLL!!!)
2: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 22 (no penalty kick)
3: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 86 (no penalty kick)
4: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 79 (no penalty kick)
5: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 87 (no penalty kick)
============================================================================
============================================================================
A  T  T  A  C  K  I  N  G      C  H  A  N  C  E  S      &      S  H  O  T  S

  (i)   If team A's Fw area total is greater than team B's Df area total, 
        then A earns a number of attacks equal to the difference.
        Note: A Sw  does NOT add his levels to the Df in this league! 

  (ii)  The team with the highest Mf area total gets attacks equal to half
        the difference.

  (iii) If team A's Df area total is greater than team B's Fw total, then  
        team A earns a number of attacks equal to one fifth of the difference.
        If team A is playing a sweeper behind the defence, this rises to one 
        third of the difference.  All fractions of attacks are rounded up, 
        and then each of the attacks is treated as follows to see how many 
        produce shots, then goals: 

  (iv)  Attacks have first to beat the Sw (if playing!).  For each attack,
        there is a percentage chance of it being stopped equal to:
              30 + (Sw level x 2) % 
        (eg a level 10 Sw stops 30+10x2=50% of attacks.) Attacks passing the 
        Sw become shots.

  (v)   Each shot has a 35% chance of being off-target. If a side has scored
        2 goals this rises to 40%, then by a further 5% after each goal scored,
        to a maximum of 75%. This is to curb ridiculous scorelines (with luck!)

  (vi)  Finally, on-target shots come up against the  Gk. This is similar to 
        the Sw test, but the percentage is:
        40 + (Gk level x 2.25) % 

  Notes: If the defense is playing offside trap then the offensive team has
         their Fw attacks cut in half and theor Mf attacks doubled.

         A team choosing to PFD has 7 extra levels to split between Sw, 
         Df and Mf areas, but their attacks for each area will be halved 
         (round up fractions).

*******  SWINDON TOWN FC ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
  AREA TOTALS             GK  Sw  Df  Mf  Fw
  -------------------------------------------
  Swindon Town FC          14  13  42  41  26
  Derby County             17  16  22  26  64

Swindon Town FC Fw Attacks = 4 (26 - 22); result rounded up
Swindon Town FC Mf Attacks = 8 ((41 - 26) / 2) ; result rounded up
Swindon Town FC Df Attacks = 0 ((42 - 64) / 3;  rounded up)
Swindon Town FC Total Attacks = 12

1: Attack for Mf Jamie Calhoun
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 4 (Sw stopped attack) 
2: Attack for Mf Thomás Gouveia
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 89 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 25 (Shot Off Target) 
3: Attack for Mf Brad Nguyen
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 86 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 91 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 78.25% | Random number = 9.68 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
4: Attack for Mf Kristoffer Larsen
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 73 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 38 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 78.25% | Random number = 51.92 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
5: Attack for Mf Jamie Calhoun
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 77 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 27 (Shot Off Target) 
6: Attack for Mf Thomás Gouveia
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 24 (Sw stopped attack) 
7: Attack for Mf Brad Nguyen
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 63 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 70 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 78.25% | Random number = 24.99 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
8: Attack for Mf Brad Nguyen
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 40 (Sw stopped attack) 
9: Attack for Fw Jack Stretch
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 10 (Sw stopped attack) 
10: Attack for Fw Alistair Lorimar
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 74 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 80 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 78.25% | Random number = 1.45 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
11: Attack for Fw Jack Stretch
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 36 (Sw stopped attack) 
12: Attack for Fw Jack Stretch
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 6 (Sw stopped attack) 

*******  DERBY COUNTY ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
  AREA TOTALS             GK  Sw  Df  Mf  Fw
  -------------------------------------------
  Derby County             17  16  22  26  64
  Swindon Town FC          14  13  42  41  26

Derby County Fw Attacks = 22 (64 - 42); result rounded up
Derby County Mf Attacks = 0 ((26 - 41) / 2;  rounded up)
Derby County Df Attacks = 0 ((22 - 26) / 3;  rounded up)
Derby County Total Attacks = 22

1: Attack for Fw Alexander Burns
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 69 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 82 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 71.5% | Random number = 39.61 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
2: Attack for Fw Wayne Mitchell
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 49 (Sw stopped attack) 
3: Attack for Fw Jake McBrayne
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 20 (Sw stopped attack) 
4: Attack for Fw Baptiste Lemmens
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 61 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 72 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 71.5% | Random number = 89.95 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 
5: Attack for Fw Jake McBrayne
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 43 (Sw stopped attack) 
6: Attack for Fw Reece McGregor
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 5 (Sw stopped attack) 
7: Attack for Fw Jake McBrayne
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 34 (Sw stopped attack) 
8: Attack for Fw Jake McBrayne
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 21 (Sw stopped attack) 
9: Attack for Fw Alexander Burns
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 90 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 8 (Shot Off Target) 
10: Attack for Fw Alexander Burns
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 1 (Sw stopped attack) 
11: Attack for Fw Baptiste Lemmens
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 20 (Sw stopped attack) 
12: Attack for Fw Jake McBrayne
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 96 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 27 (Shot Off Target) 
13: Attack for Fw Reece McGregor
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 17 (Sw stopped attack) 
14: Attack for Fw Reece McGregor
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 39 (Sw stopped attack) 
15: Attack for Fw Jake McBrayne
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 76 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 76 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 71.5% | Random number = 28.87 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
16: Attack for Fw Reece McGregor
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 8 (Sw stopped attack) 
17: Attack for Fw Jake McBrayne
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 54 (Sw stopped attack) 
18: Attack for Fw Jake McBrayne
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 79 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 81 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 71.5% | Random number = 43.3 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
19: Attack for Fw Wayne Mitchell
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 8 (Sw stopped attack) 
20: Attack for Fw Reece McGregor
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 64 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 70 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 71.5% | Random number = 45.12 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
21: Attack for Fw Wayne Mitchell
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 90 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 87 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 71.5% | Random number = 27.95 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
22: Attack for Fw Wayne Mitchell
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 99 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 38 (Shot Off Target) 
===============================================
     F  I  N  A  L         S  C  O  R  E
SWINDON TOWN FC 0  -  DERBY COUNTY 2
 
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