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Derby County
Rob Baptiste
 
Wycombe Wanderers
David Blair
 
 
League Round 13
 
 
 
 

S  T  A  R  T  I  N  G      L  I  N  E  U  P  S

DERBY COUNTY                               WYCOMBE WANDERERS

Ps Player Name            SL  FIT  LVL     Ps Player Name            SL  FIT  LVL
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gk Matty Ruby              7    2    9     Gk Victor Silva           10    2   12
Df Kai Thomson             9    0    9     Sw Cong YŠng               3    2    5
Df Brandon Pagett          7    1    8     Df Tal Moshe               9    0    9
Mf Gonzalo Arias           6    2    8     Df Shay  Akhtar            8    0    8
Mf John Paul Jones         3    2    5     Df Steven James            8    1    9
Fw Kieran Beckham          9    0    9     Df Lincoln Collins         3    2    5
Fw Ryan Martin             8    2   10     Mf Daniel Dias            10    2   12
Fw Bailey Gerrard          8    2   10     Mf Christopher McGee       5    2    7
Fw Lok Zhang               7    1    8     Mf Ellis Cox               4    2    6
Fw Christian Doyle         5    1    6     Fw Luis Herrmann          11    0   11
Fw Glenn Anderson          5    2    7     Fw Leif† Engen             3    2    5

      Gk Sw Df Mf Fw   A R E A  T O T A L S    Gk Sw Df Mf Fw
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
       9  0 17 13 50        ROSTER TOTALS      12  5 31 25 16    
       3  0  0  0  0          HARDNESS          0  0  0  0  2    
       0  0  1  5  1       HOME ADVANTAGE       0  0  0  0  0    
       2  0  0  0  0  GREAT PERFORMANCE POINTS  0  0  0  0  4    
       0  0  0  0  0        PLAY FOR DRAW       0  0  0  0  0    
=======================================================================
      14  0 18 18 51         T O T A L S       12  5 31 25 22    

============================================================================
============================================================================
B  O  O  K  I  N  G  S

Each player is next given a chance for a yellow/red card.  The first
number listed is the chance for the player to get the yellow/red
card while the second number shows the random number drawn.  If the 
random number is less than or equal to the player's yellow/red card 
chance then the player is sent off.  Note that the chances are as follows:
	- Booking: 1.5 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness))
	- Red Card: 0.25 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness)))

If a player is booked we immediately draw a second number to check
for a 'second yellow' (red card chance) resulting in a sending off.
If a player is not booked we draw a red card chance to see if the player
was given a straight red card.  Note that the aforementioned formula
differs for a Gk where the formula uses the hardness points added to
your Gk area and NOT the team hardness points.

*******  DERBY COUNTY YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
   - Team Hardness = 3
   - Gk   Hardness = 3

Gk Matty Ruby: Chance of booking = 11.25% | Random number = 33.06 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.875% | Random number = 87.72 (no red card)

Df Kai Thomson: Chance of booking = 11.25% | Random number = 37.75 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.87% | Random number = 58.68 (no red card)

Df Brandon Pagett: Chance of booking = 11.25% | Random number = 20.46 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.87% | Random number = 55.33 (no red card)

Mf Gonzalo Arias: Chance of booking = 11.25% | Random number = 21.72 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.87% | Random number = 79.13 (no red card)

Mf John Paul Jones: Chance of booking = 11.25% | Random number = 44.48 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.87% | Random number = 33.51 (no red card)

Fw Kieran Beckham: Chance of booking = 11.25% | Random number = 13.56 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.87% | Random number = 37.89 (no red card)

Fw Ryan Martin: Chance of booking = 11.25% | Random number = 12.71 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.87% | Random number = 59.91 (no red card)

Fw Bailey Gerrard: Chance of booking = 11.25% | Random number = 89.82 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.87% | Random number = 74.01 (no red card)

Fw Lok Zhang: Chance of booking = 11.25% | Random number = 1.05 (BOOKED!) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.87% | Random number = 16.26 (no second yellow)

Fw Christian Doyle: Chance of booking = 11.25% | Random number = 60.46 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.87% | Random number = 72.78 (no red card)

Fw Glenn Anderson: Chance of booking = 11.25% | Random number = 2.65 (BOOKED!) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.87% | Random number = 67.22 (no second yellow)

*******  WYCOMBE WANDERERS YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
   - Team Hardness = 2
   - Gk   Hardness = 0

Gk Victor Silva: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 16.64 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 8.29 (no red card)

Sw Cong YŠng: Chance of booking = 9.0% | Random number = 89.22 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.5% | Random number = 35.98 (no red card)

Df Tal Moshe: Chance of booking = 9.0% | Random number = 90.78 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.5% | Random number = 66.18 (no red card)

Df Shay  Akhtar: Chance of booking = 9.0% | Random number = 24.81 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.5% | Random number = 52.53 (no red card)

Df Steven James: Chance of booking = 9.0% | Random number = 79.78 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.5% | Random number = 95.32 (no red card)

Df Lincoln Collins: Chance of booking = 9.0% | Random number = 15.76 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.5% | Random number = 95.03 (no red card)

Mf Daniel Dias: Chance of booking = 9.0% | Random number = 56.53 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.5% | Random number = 7.88 (no red card)

Mf Christopher McGee: Chance of booking = 9.0% | Random number = 61.43 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.5% | Random number = 17.28 (no red card)

Mf Ellis Cox: Chance of booking = 9.0% | Random number = 14.93 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.5% | Random number = 99.27 (no red card)

Fw Luis Herrmann: Chance of booking = 9.0% | Random number = 14.69 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.5% | Random number = 70.9 (no red card)

Fw Leif† Engen: Chance of booking = 9.0% | Random number = 32.45 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.5% | Random number = 85.21 (no red card)
============================================================================
============================================================================
I  N  J  U  R  I  E  S

A major consequence of hardness is that your opponents get injured. 
For each player the chance of injury is:   
  ((your teamís hardness * .25) + (opponentís hardness * .75) + 2.5)%.
    For example if your team has a hardness of 8 and the opposition has a hardness of 4,
    the chance of injury for each player would be: 2 + 3 + 2.5 or 7.5%.

The chance is halved for the opposition Gk. A player plays at half 
his normal level (skill plus fitness) in the match in which he is injured.

Injured players lose fitness as a result, the amount of fitness lost being
shown on the game report in brackets. There is a 30% chance of no fitness loss,
15% chance of 1 level fitness lost, 15% of 2 levels, and a 10% chance
of each of 3,4,5, or 6 fitness levels being lost. 
This fitness loss (if any) takes place at the end of the session, for 
reasons of simplicity. Should a player be injured twice or
more in a session, only the most severe injury will apply.


*******  DERBY COUNTY CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
   - Derby County Team Hardness = 3
   - Wycombe Wanderers Team Hardness = 2
   - All (except Gk) chance of injury = 4.75%
   - Gk chance of injury = 2.37%
Gk Matty Ruby: Chance of injury = 2.37% | Random number = 39.82 (no injury) 
Df Kai Thomson: Chance of injury = 4.75% | Random number = 54.78 (no injury) 
Df Brandon Pagett: Chance of injury = 4.75% | Random number = 39.24 (no injury) 
Mf Gonzalo Arias: Chance of injury = 4.75% | Random number = 79.87 (no injury) 
Mf John Paul Jones: Chance of injury = 4.75% | Random number = 3.58 (INJURED!) 
      Targeted fitness lost = 0
      John Paul Jones loses 0 fitness points (deducted at end of session)
      John Paul Jones new match skill level =  2
      John Paul Jones new match total level =  4
Fw Kieran Beckham: Chance of injury = 4.75% | Random number = 64.2 (no injury) 
Fw Ryan Martin: Chance of injury = 4.75% | Random number = 49.49 (no injury) 
Fw Bailey Gerrard: Chance of injury = 4.75% | Random number = 79.85 (no injury) 
Fw Lok Zhang: Chance of injury = 4.75% | Random number = 22.35 (no injury) 
Fw Christian Doyle: Chance of injury = 4.75% | Random number = 74.51 (no injury) 
Fw Glenn Anderson: Chance of injury = 4.75% | Random number = 78.41 (no injury) 

*******  WYCOMBE WANDERERS CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
   - Wycombe Wanderers Team Hardness = 2
   - Derby County Team Hardness = 3
   - All (except Gk) chance of injury = 5.25%
   - Gk chance of injury = 2.62%
Gk Victor Silva: Chance of injury = 2.62% | Random number = 95.22 (no injury) 
Sw Cong YŠng: Chance of injury = 5.25% | Random number = 72.33 (no injury) 
Df Tal Moshe: Chance of injury = 5.25% | Random number = 50.44 (no injury) 
Df Shay  Akhtar: Chance of injury = 5.25% | Random number = 49.69 (no injury) 
Df Steven James: Chance of injury = 5.25% | Random number = 24.71 (no injury) 
Df Lincoln Collins: Chance of injury = 5.25% | Random number = 11.59 (no injury) 
Mf Daniel Dias: Chance of injury = 5.25% | Random number = 10.59 (no injury) 
Mf Christopher McGee: Chance of injury = 5.25% | Random number = 18.59 (no injury) 
Mf Ellis Cox: Chance of injury = 5.25% | Random number = 16.05 (no injury) 
Fw Luis Herrmann: Chance of injury = 5.25% | Random number = 2.49 (INJURED!) 
      Targeted fitness lost = 2
      Luis Herrmann loses 2 fitness points (deducted at end of session)
      Luis Herrmann new match skill level =  6
      Luis Herrmann new match total level =  6
Fw Leif† Engen: Chance of injury = 5.25% | Random number = 77.47 (no injury) 
============================================================================
============================================================================
P  E  N  A  L  T  Y     K  I  C  K  S

There is a 10% chance of conceding a penalty for every hardness point used.
Each 10% chance is separate, so a team could concede as many penalties as it plays
hardness points. If no hardness is used, there is still a 5% penalty chance. 
The chance of a penalty being scored is: 
  50 + (4 x penalty takers skill) - (2 x Gk skill)  %    (to a maximum 95%)

*******  WYCOMBE WANDERERS CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
   - Team Hardness: 2; (2 10% chances of yielding PKs)
   - PK Taker: Kai Thomson SL 9
   - Defending Gk: Victor Silva SL 10

1: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 5 (PENALTY KICK!)
   Chance of scoring = 66% | Random number = 95 (pk blocked)
2: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 32 (no penalty kick)

*******  DERBY COUNTY CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
   - Team Hardness: 3; (3 10% chances of yielding PKs)
   - PK Taker: Daniel Dias SL 10
   - Defending Gk: Matty Ruby SL 7

1: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 25 (no penalty kick)
2: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 70 (no penalty kick)
3: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 64 (no penalty kick)
============================================================================
============================================================================
A  T  T  A  C  K  I  N  G      C  H  A  N  C  E  S      &      S  H  O  T  S

  (i)   If team A's Fw area total is greater than team B's Df area total, 
        then A earns a number of attacks equal to the difference.
        Note: A Sw  does NOT add his levels to the Df in this league! 

  (ii)  The team with the highest Mf area total gets attacks equal to half
        the difference.

  (iii) If team A's Df area total is greater than team B's Fw total, then  
        team A earns a number of attacks equal to one fifth of the difference.
        If team A is playing a sweeper behind the defence, this rises to one 
        third of the difference.  All fractions of attacks are rounded up, 
        and then each of the attacks is treated as follows to see how many 
        produce shots, then goals: 

  (iv)  Attacks have first to beat the Sw (if playing!).  For each attack,
        there is a percentage chance of it being stopped equal to:
              30 + (Sw level x 2) % 
        (eg a level 10 Sw stops 30+10x2=50% of attacks.) Attacks passing the 
        Sw become shots.

  (v)   Each shot has a 35% chance of being off-target. If a side has scored
        2 goals this rises to 40%, then by a further 5% after each goal scored,
        to a maximum of 75%. This is to curb ridiculous scorelines (with luck!)

  (vi)  Finally, on-target shots come up against the  Gk. This is similar to 
        the Sw test, but the percentage is:
        40 + (Gk level x 2.25) % 

  Notes: If the defense is playing offside trap then the offensive team has
         their Fw attacks cut in half and theor Mf attacks doubled.

         A team choosing to PFD has 7 extra levels to split between Sw, 
         Df and Mf areas, but their attacks for each area will be halved 
         (round up fractions).

*******  DERBY COUNTY ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
  AREA TOTALS             GK  Sw  Df  Mf  Fw
  -------------------------------------------
  Derby County             14   0  18  17  51
  Wycombe Wanderers        12   5  31  25  17

Derby County Fw Attacks = 20 (51 - 31); result rounded up
Derby County Mf Attacks = 0 ((17 - 25) / 2;  rounded up)
Derby County Df Attacks = 1 ((18 - 17) / 5); result rounded up
Derby County Total Attacks = 21

1: Attack for Df Brandon Pagett
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 40% | Random number = 44 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 98 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 67.0% | Random number = 41.32 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
2: Attack for Fw Christian Doyle
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 40% | Random number = 34 (Sw stopped attack) 
3: Attack for Fw Glenn Anderson
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 40% | Random number = 80 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 18 (Shot Off Target) 
4: Attack for Fw Lok Zhang
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 40% | Random number = 18 (Sw stopped attack) 
5: Attack for Fw Lok Zhang
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 40% | Random number = 21 (Sw stopped attack) 
6: Attack for Fw Ryan Martin
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 40% | Random number = 28 (Sw stopped attack) 
7: Attack for Fw Kieran Beckham
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 40% | Random number = 13 (Sw stopped attack) 
8: Attack for Fw Kieran Beckham
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 40% | Random number = 56 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 41 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 67.0% | Random number = 69.7 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 
9: Attack for Fw Ryan Martin
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 40% | Random number = 21 (Sw stopped attack) 
10: Attack for Fw Ryan Martin
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 40% | Random number = 86 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 38 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 67.0% | Random number = 47.31 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
11: Attack for Fw Kieran Beckham
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 40% | Random number = 35 (Sw stopped attack) 
12: Attack for Fw Lok Zhang
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 40% | Random number = 30 (Sw stopped attack) 
13: Attack for Fw Lok Zhang
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 40% | Random number = 41 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 83 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 67.0% | Random number = 5.39 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
14: Attack for Fw Ryan Martin
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 40% | Random number = 46 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 37 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 67.0% | Random number = 11.53 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
15: Attack for Fw Ryan Martin
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 40% | Random number = 15 (Sw stopped attack) 
16: Attack for Fw Lok Zhang
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 40% | Random number = 41 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 97 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 67.0% | Random number = 12.32 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
17: Attack for Fw Kieran Beckham
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 40% | Random number = 36 (Sw stopped attack) 
18: Attack for Fw Kieran Beckham
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 40% | Random number = 80 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 66 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 67.0% | Random number = 80.77 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 
19: Attack for Fw Bailey Gerrard
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 40% | Random number = 3 (Sw stopped attack) 
20: Attack for Fw Kieran Beckham
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 40% | Random number = 68 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 38 (Shot Off Target) 
21: Attack for Fw Bailey Gerrard
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 40% | Random number = 32 (Sw stopped attack) 

*******  WYCOMBE WANDERERS ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
  AREA TOTALS             GK  Sw  Df  Mf  Fw
  -------------------------------------------
  Wycombe Wanderers        12   5  31  25  17
  Derby County             14   0  18  17  51

Derby County is using Offside Trap!
Wycombe Wanderers Fw Attacks = 0 (17 - 18)
Wycombe Wanderers Mf Attacks = 8 ((25 - 17) / 2)  * 2.0 (OST Multiplier) ; result rounded up
Wycombe Wanderers Df Attacks = 0 ((31 - 51) / 3;  rounded up)
Wycombe Wanderers Total Attacks = 8

1: Attack for Mf Ellis Cox
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Derby County
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 22 (Shot Off Target) 
2: Attack for Mf Ellis Cox
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Derby County
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 96 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 71.5% | Random number = 81.64 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 
3: Attack for Mf Daniel Dias
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Derby County
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 53 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 71.5% | Random number = 51.34 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
4: Attack for Mf Christopher McGee
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Derby County
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 31 (Shot Off Target) 
5: Attack for Mf Daniel Dias
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Derby County
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 34 (Shot Off Target) 
6: Attack for Mf Ellis Cox
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Derby County
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 42 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 71.5% | Random number = 50.98 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
7: Attack for Mf Ellis Cox
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Derby County
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 32 (Shot Off Target) 
8: Attack for Mf Ellis Cox
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Derby County
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 71 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 71.5% | Random number = 75.39 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 
===============================================
     F  I  N  A  L         S  C  O  R  E
DERBY COUNTY 2  -  WYCOMBE WANDERERS 2
 
Match Notes
Beauty - we have NEVER won at Derby - can't see us changing that any time soon.. :-)
David (Wycombe Wanderers) 01/09 - 9:19 AM
I reckon you have a chance in this one...
James (Watford) 01/10 - 2:50 PM
James - you were right - I did have a chance, but scoring 2 goals and getting a point will do for now.. :-)
David (Wycombe Wanderers) 01/14 - 9:38 AM
Works for me.
Rob (Derby County) 01/15 - 1:51 AM
 
 
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