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Southend United
Dave Dowson
 
Swindon Town FC
Matt White
 
 
League Round 13
 
 
 
 

S  T  A  R  T  I  N  G      L  I  N  E  U  P  S

SOUTHEND UNITED                            SWINDON TOWN FC

Ps Player Name            SL  FIT  LVL     Ps Player Name            SL  FIT  LVL
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gk Ian Woodward           13    1   14     Gk Diogo Ventura           4    2    6
Sw John Dunn              12    2   14     Sw Mark Bryant             7    2    9
Df Tony Barmby            11    1   12     Df Alfie Yates            14    1   15
Df Riccardo Lombardi      10    2   12     Df Aiden Henderson         8    2   10
Mf Tiago Quaresma         10    2   12     Df Fernando Renteria       4    2    6
Mf Davide Caruso           9    2   11     Mf Marvin Vogel           13    1   14
Fw David Campbell         13    0   13     Mf Valeri Golubev         10    1   11
Fw Jack Harrison          12    2   14     Mf Brad Nguyen             4    2    6
Fw Simon Forsberg          8    2   10     Fw Shayne Newton          11    1   12
Fw Oren Yosef              8    2   10     Fw Alvarez  López         10    0   10
Fw Tom Ellis              12    2   14     Fw Alistair Lorimar        4    1    5

      Gk Sw Df Mf Fw   A R E A  T O T A L S    Gk Sw Df Mf Fw
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
      14 14 24 23 61        ROSTER TOTALS       6  9 31 31 27    
       0  0  1  2  2          HARDNESS          0  0  0  0  0    
       0  0  0  0  9       HOME ADVANTAGE       0  0  0  0  0    
       0  0  0  0  0  GREAT PERFORMANCE POINTS  0  0  0  0  0    
       0  0  0  0  0        PLAY FOR DRAW       0  0  0  0  0    
=======================================================================
      14 14 25 25 72         T O T A L S        6  9 31 31 27    

============================================================================
============================================================================
B  O  O  K  I  N  G  S

Each player is next given a chance for a yellow/red card.  The first
number listed is the chance for the player to get the yellow/red
card while the second number shows the random number drawn.  If the 
random number is less than or equal to the player's yellow/red card 
chance then the player is sent off.  Note that the chances are as follows:
	- Booking: 1.5 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness))
	- Red Card: 0.25 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness)))

If a player is booked we immediately draw a second number to check
for a 'second yellow' (red card chance) resulting in a sending off.
If a player is not booked we draw a red card chance to see if the player
was given a straight red card.  Note that the aforementioned formula
differs for a Gk where the formula uses the hardness points added to
your Gk area and NOT the team hardness points.

*******  SOUTHEND UNITED YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
   - Team Hardness = 5
   - Gk   Hardness = 0

Gk Ian Woodward: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 56.48 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 54.09 (no red card)

Sw John Dunn: Chance of booking = 15.75% | Random number = 99.17 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 2.62% | Random number = 2.75 (no red card)

Df Tony Barmby: Chance of booking = 15.75% | Random number = 92.04 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 2.62% | Random number = 69.1 (no red card)

Df Riccardo Lombardi: Chance of booking = 15.75% | Random number = 6.52 (BOOKED!) 
   Chance of second booking = 2.62% | Random number = 11.93 (no second yellow)

Mf Tiago Quaresma: Chance of booking = 15.75% | Random number = 83.95 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 2.62% | Random number = 49.27 (no red card)

Mf Davide Caruso: Chance of booking = 15.75% | Random number = 33.26 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 2.62% | Random number = 88.14 (no red card)

Fw David Campbell: Chance of booking = 15.75% | Random number = 65.3 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 2.62% | Random number = 11.95 (no red card)

Fw Jack Harrison: Chance of booking = 15.75% | Random number = 87.95 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 2.62% | Random number = 81.86 (no red card)

Fw Simon Forsberg: Chance of booking = 15.75% | Random number = 33.71 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 2.62% | Random number = 39.41 (no red card)

Fw Oren Yosef: Chance of booking = 15.75% | Random number = 87.07 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 2.62% | Random number = 2.95 (no red card)

Fw Tom Ellis: Chance of booking = 15.75% | Random number = 21.45 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 2.62% | Random number = 66.35 (no red card)

*******  SWINDON TOWN FC YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
   - Team Hardness = 0
   - Gk   Hardness = 0

Gk Diogo Ventura: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 78.94 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 97.52 (no red card)

Sw Mark Bryant: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 44.22 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 67.31 (no red card)

Df Alfie Yates: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 36.0 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 7.23 (no red card)

Df Aiden Henderson: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 54.65 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 9.78 (no red card)

Df Fernando Renteria: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 4.6 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 24.44 (no red card)

Mf Marvin Vogel: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 33.79 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 17.95 (no red card)

Mf Valeri Golubev: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 85.21 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 58.56 (no red card)

Mf Brad Nguyen: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 94.88 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 56.16 (no red card)

Fw Shayne Newton: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 50.02 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 26.03 (no red card)

Fw Alvarez  López: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 80.9 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 73.03 (no red card)

Fw Alistair Lorimar: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 95.9 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 67.9 (no red card)
============================================================================
============================================================================
I  N  J  U  R  I  E  S

A major consequence of hardness is that your opponents get injured. 
For each player the chance of injury is:   
  ((your team’s hardness * .25) + (opponent’s hardness * .75) + 2.5)%.
    For example if your team has a hardness of 8 and the opposition has a hardness of 4,
    the chance of injury for each player would be: 2 + 3 + 2.5 or 7.5%.

The chance is halved for the opposition Gk. A player plays at half 
his normal level (skill plus fitness) in the match in which he is injured.

Injured players lose fitness as a result, the amount of fitness lost being
shown on the game report in brackets. There is a 30% chance of no fitness loss,
15% chance of 1 level fitness lost, 15% of 2 levels, and a 10% chance
of each of 3,4,5, or 6 fitness levels being lost. 
This fitness loss (if any) takes place at the end of the session, for 
reasons of simplicity. Should a player be injured twice or
more in a session, only the most severe injury will apply.


*******  SOUTHEND UNITED CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
   - Southend United Team Hardness = 5
   - Swindon Town FC Team Hardness = 0
   - All (except Gk) chance of injury = 3.75%
   - Gk chance of injury = 1.87%
Gk Ian Woodward: Chance of injury = 1.87% | Random number = 86.68 (no injury) 
Sw John Dunn: Chance of injury = 3.75% | Random number = 58.72 (no injury) 
Df Tony Barmby: Chance of injury = 3.75% | Random number = 80.56 (no injury) 
Df Riccardo Lombardi: Chance of injury = 3.75% | Random number = 90.74 (no injury) 
Mf Tiago Quaresma: Chance of injury = 3.75% | Random number = 9.85 (no injury) 
Mf Davide Caruso: Chance of injury = 3.75% | Random number = 18.42 (no injury) 
Fw David Campbell: Chance of injury = 3.75% | Random number = 73.68 (no injury) 
Fw Jack Harrison: Chance of injury = 3.75% | Random number = 70.15 (no injury) 
Fw Simon Forsberg: Chance of injury = 3.75% | Random number = 6.44 (no injury) 
Fw Oren Yosef: Chance of injury = 3.75% | Random number = 90.92 (no injury) 
Fw Tom Ellis: Chance of injury = 3.75% | Random number = 5.54 (no injury) 

*******  SWINDON TOWN FC CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
   - Swindon Town FC Team Hardness = 0
   - Southend United Team Hardness = 5
   - All (except Gk) chance of injury = 6.25%
   - Gk chance of injury = 3.12%
Gk Diogo Ventura: Chance of injury = 3.12% | Random number = 74.33 (no injury) 
Sw Mark Bryant: Chance of injury = 6.25% | Random number = 82.6 (no injury) 
Df Alfie Yates: Chance of injury = 6.25% | Random number = 9.25 (no injury) 
Df Aiden Henderson: Chance of injury = 6.25% | Random number = 75.51 (no injury) 
Df Fernando Renteria: Chance of injury = 6.25% | Random number = 78.77 (no injury) 
Mf Marvin Vogel: Chance of injury = 6.25% | Random number = 83.3 (no injury) 
Mf Valeri Golubev: Chance of injury = 6.25% | Random number = 52.84 (no injury) 
Mf Brad Nguyen: Chance of injury = 6.25% | Random number = 9.22 (no injury) 
Fw Shayne Newton: Chance of injury = 6.25% | Random number = 59.19 (no injury) 
Fw Alvarez  López: Chance of injury = 6.25% | Random number = 67.62 (no injury) 
Fw Alistair Lorimar: Chance of injury = 6.25% | Random number = 66.62 (no injury) 
============================================================================
============================================================================
P  E  N  A  L  T  Y     K  I  C  K  S

There is a 10% chance of conceding a penalty for every hardness point used.
Each 10% chance is separate, so a team could concede as many penalties as it plays
hardness points. If no hardness is used, there is still a 5% penalty chance. 
The chance of a penalty being scored is: 
  50 + (4 x penalty takers skill) - (2 x Gk skill)  %    (to a maximum 95%)

*******  SWINDON TOWN FC CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
   - Team Hardness: 0; (1 5% chance of yielding a PK)
   - PK Taker: David Campbell SL 13
   - Defending Gk: Diogo Ventura SL 4

     intRndPk = 4
1: Chance of PK occurring = 5% | Random number = 4 (PENALTY KICK!)
   Chance of scoring = 94% | Random number = 75 (PENALTY KICK GOOOAAALLL!!!)

*******  SOUTHEND UNITED CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
   - Team Hardness: 5; (5 10% chances of yielding PKs)
   - PK Taker: Alfie Yates SL 14
   - Defending Gk: Ian Woodward SL 13

1: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 77 (no penalty kick)
2: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 43 (no penalty kick)
3: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 39 (no penalty kick)
4: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 29 (no penalty kick)
5: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 49 (no penalty kick)
============================================================================
============================================================================
A  T  T  A  C  K  I  N  G      C  H  A  N  C  E  S      &      S  H  O  T  S

  (i)   If team A's Fw area total is greater than team B's Df area total, 
        then A earns a number of attacks equal to the difference.
        Note: A Sw  does NOT add his levels to the Df in this league! 

  (ii)  The team with the highest Mf area total gets attacks equal to half
        the difference.

  (iii) If team A's Df area total is greater than team B's Fw total, then  
        team A earns a number of attacks equal to one fifth of the difference.
        If team A is playing a sweeper behind the defence, this rises to one 
        third of the difference.  All fractions of attacks are rounded up, 
        and then each of the attacks is treated as follows to see how many 
        produce shots, then goals: 

  (iv)  Attacks have first to beat the Sw (if playing!).  For each attack,
        there is a percentage chance of it being stopped equal to:
              30 + (Sw level x 2) % 
        (eg a level 10 Sw stops 30+10x2=50% of attacks.) Attacks passing the 
        Sw become shots.

  (v)   Each shot has a 35% chance of being off-target. If a side has scored
        2 goals this rises to 40%, then by a further 5% after each goal scored,
        to a maximum of 75%. This is to curb ridiculous scorelines (with luck!)

  (vi)  Finally, on-target shots come up against the  Gk. This is similar to 
        the Sw test, but the percentage is:
        40 + (Gk level x 2.25) % 

  Notes: If the defense is playing offside trap then the offensive team has
         their Fw attacks cut in half and theor Mf attacks doubled.

         A team choosing to PFD has 7 extra levels to split between Sw, 
         Df and Mf areas, but their attacks for each area will be halved 
         (round up fractions).

*******  SOUTHEND UNITED ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
  AREA TOTALS             GK  Sw  Df  Mf  Fw
  -------------------------------------------
  Southend United          14  14  25  25  72
  Swindon Town FC          6   9  31  31  27

Southend United Fw Attacks = 41 (72 - 31); result rounded up
Southend United Mf Attacks = 0 ((25 - 31) / 2;  rounded up)
Southend United Df Attacks = 0 ((25 - 27) / 3;  rounded up)
Southend United Total Attacks = 41

1: Attack for Fw David Campbell
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 48% | Random number = 18 (Sw stopped attack) 
2: Attack for Fw Oren Yosef
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 48% | Random number = 75 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 100 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 53.5% | Random number = 92.4 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 
3: Attack for Fw Tom Ellis
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 48% | Random number = 95 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 49 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 53.5% | Random number = 54.16 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 
4: Attack for Fw Oren Yosef
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 48% | Random number = 87 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 45% | Random number = 27 (Shot Off Target) 
5: Attack for Fw Jack Harrison
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 48% | Random number = 25 (Sw stopped attack) 
6: Attack for Fw Jack Harrison
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 48% | Random number = 11 (Sw stopped attack) 
7: Attack for Fw Simon Forsberg
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 48% | Random number = 65 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 45% | Random number = 36 (Shot Off Target) 
8: Attack for Fw Oren Yosef
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 48% | Random number = 20 (Sw stopped attack) 
9: Attack for Fw Oren Yosef
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 48% | Random number = 23 (Sw stopped attack) 
10: Attack for Fw Jack Harrison
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 48% | Random number = 99 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 45% | Random number = 29 (Shot Off Target) 
11: Attack for Fw David Campbell
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 48% | Random number = 84 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 45% | Random number = 47 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 53.5% | Random number = 30.1 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
12: Attack for Fw Simon Forsberg
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 48% | Random number = 87 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 45% | Random number = 50 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 53.5% | Random number = 56.64 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 
13: Attack for Fw Oren Yosef
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 48% | Random number = 31 (Sw stopped attack) 
14: Attack for Fw Oren Yosef
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 48% | Random number = 29 (Sw stopped attack) 
15: Attack for Fw Jack Harrison
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 48% | Random number = 33 (Sw stopped attack) 
16: Attack for Fw Tom Ellis
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 48% | Random number = 41 (Sw stopped attack) 
17: Attack for Fw Tom Ellis
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 48% | Random number = 88 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 50% | Random number = 18 (Shot Off Target) 
18: Attack for Fw David Campbell
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 48% | Random number = 80 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 50% | Random number = 67 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 53.5% | Random number = 36.22 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
19: Attack for Fw Oren Yosef
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 48% | Random number = 52 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 50% | Random number = 68 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 53.5% | Random number = 15.8 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
20: Attack for Fw Simon Forsberg
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 48% | Random number = 26 (Sw stopped attack) 
21: Attack for Fw Oren Yosef
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 48% | Random number = 80 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 50% | Random number = 81 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 53.5% | Random number = 84.64 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 
22: Attack for Fw Jack Harrison
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 48% | Random number = 41 (Sw stopped attack) 
23: Attack for Fw Oren Yosef
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 48% | Random number = 35 (Sw stopped attack) 
24: Attack for Fw Tom Ellis
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 48% | Random number = 72 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 55% | Random number = 10 (Shot Off Target) 
25: Attack for Fw Simon Forsberg
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 48% | Random number = 23 (Sw stopped attack) 
26: Attack for Fw Jack Harrison
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 48% | Random number = 33 (Sw stopped attack) 
27: Attack for Fw Simon Forsberg
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 48% | Random number = 93 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 55% | Random number = 25 (Shot Off Target) 
28: Attack for Fw Simon Forsberg
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 48% | Random number = 8 (Sw stopped attack) 
29: Attack for Fw Tom Ellis
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 48% | Random number = 77 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 55% | Random number = 35 (Shot Off Target) 
30: Attack for Fw Jack Harrison
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 48% | Random number = 42 (Sw stopped attack) 
31: Attack for Fw Jack Harrison
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 48% | Random number = 94 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 55% | Random number = 31 (Shot Off Target) 
32: Attack for Fw David Campbell
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 48% | Random number = 9 (Sw stopped attack) 
33: Attack for Fw Oren Yosef
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 48% | Random number = 23 (Sw stopped attack) 
34: Attack for Fw Tom Ellis
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 48% | Random number = 91 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 55% | Random number = 31 (Shot Off Target) 
35: Attack for Fw Simon Forsberg
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 48% | Random number = 12 (Sw stopped attack) 
36: Attack for Fw David Campbell
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 48% | Random number = 3 (Sw stopped attack) 
37: Attack for Fw Tom Ellis
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 48% | Random number = 96 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 55% | Random number = 83 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 53.5% | Random number = 49.11 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
38: Attack for Fw David Campbell
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 48% | Random number = 9 (Sw stopped attack) 
39: Attack for Fw Jack Harrison
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 48% | Random number = 58 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 55% | Random number = 64 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 53.5% | Random number = 77.06 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 
40: Attack for Fw Jack Harrison
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 48% | Random number = 54 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 60% | Random number = 33 (Shot Off Target) 
41: Attack for Fw Simon Forsberg
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 48% | Random number = 30 (Sw stopped attack) 

*******  SWINDON TOWN FC ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
  AREA TOTALS             GK  Sw  Df  Mf  Fw
  -------------------------------------------
  Swindon Town FC          6   9  31  31  27
  Southend United          14  14  25  25  72

Swindon Town FC Fw Attacks = 2 (27 - 25); result rounded up
Swindon Town FC Mf Attacks = 3 ((31 - 25) / 2) ; result rounded up
Swindon Town FC Df Attacks = 0 ((31 - 72) / 3;  rounded up)
Swindon Town FC Total Attacks = 5

1: Attack for Mf Brad Nguyen
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 58% | Random number = 47 (Sw stopped attack) 
2: Attack for Mf Marvin Vogel
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 58% | Random number = 36 (Sw stopped attack) 
3: Attack for Mf Valeri Golubev
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 58% | Random number = 88 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 96 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 71.5% | Random number = 0.78 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
4: Attack for Fw Alistair Lorimar
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 58% | Random number = 69 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 33 (Shot Off Target) 
5: Attack for Fw Alvarez  López
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 58% | Random number = 89 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 97 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 71.5% | Random number = 97.01 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 
===============================================
     F  I  N  A  L         S  C  O  R  E
SOUTHEND UNITED 6  -  SWINDON TOWN FC 1
 
Match Notes
Oh dear we got that prediction wrong
Simon (Northampton Town FC) 01/13 - 6:11 PM
 
 
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