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Southend United
Dave Dowson
 
Swindon Town FC
Matt White
 
 
League Round 13
 
 
 
 

S  T  A  R  T  I  N  G      L  I  N  E  U  P  S

SOUTHEND UNITED                            SWINDON TOWN FC

Ps Player Name            SL  FIT  LVL     Ps Player Name            SL  FIT  LVL
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gk Robert Hay             16    2   18     Gk Paul Birks             13    0   13
Sw Kyle Fortune-West       8    2   10     Df Murray Blair           12    0   12
Df Dave Ruiz              12    2   14     Df Mika Weiss             11    2   13
Df Gabriele Esposito      11    2   13     Df Samuel Clark            8    1    9
Df Jay Black              11    2   13     Df Oran Farrell            4    2    6
Mf Cameron Reid           11    1   12     Mf Thomás Gouveia         15    0   15
Mf Tom Schmitt             9    2   11     Mf Eoin McGuire            8    2   10
Mf Rhys Blair              4    2    6     Mf Gregory Garcia          4    2    6
Fw Geoffrey Charlton      14    2   16     Fw Marty Pearce           12    1   13
Fw Finlay Neville         13    2   15     Fw Florian Neuville        8    2   10
Fw Simon Forsberg          8    2   10     Fw Joe Humphreys           5    2    7

      Gk Sw Df Mf Fw   A R E A  T O T A L S    Gk Sw Df Mf Fw
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
      18 10 40 29 41        ROSTER TOTALS      13  0 40 31 30    
       0  0  0  0  5          HARDNESS          0  0  0  0  0    
       0  0  0  0  9       HOME ADVANTAGE       0  0  0  0  0    
       0  0  0  0  0  GREAT PERFORMANCE POINTS  0  0  0  0  9    
       0  0  0  0  0        PLAY FOR DRAW       0  0  0  0  0    
=======================================================================
      18 10 40 29 55         T O T A L S       13  0 40 31 39    

============================================================================
============================================================================
B  O  O  K  I  N  G  S

Each player is next given a chance for a yellow/red card.  The first
number listed is the chance for the player to get the yellow/red
card while the second number shows the random number drawn.  If the 
random number is less than or equal to the player's yellow/red card 
chance then the player is sent off.  Note that the chances are as follows:
	- Booking: 1.5 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness))
	- Red Card: 0.25 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness)))

If a player is booked we immediately draw a second number to check
for a 'second yellow' (red card chance) resulting in a sending off.
If a player is not booked we draw a red card chance to see if the player
was given a straight red card.  Note that the aforementioned formula
differs for a Gk where the formula uses the hardness points added to
your Gk area and NOT the team hardness points.

*******  SOUTHEND UNITED YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
   - Team Hardness = 5
   - Gk   Hardness = 0

Gk Robert Hay: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 52.99 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 66.78 (no red card)

Sw Kyle Fortune-West: Chance of booking = 15.75% | Random number = 79.02 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 2.62% | Random number = 89.37 (no red card)

Df Dave Ruiz: Chance of booking = 15.75% | Random number = 70.51 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 2.62% | Random number = 72.66 (no red card)

Df Gabriele Esposito: Chance of booking = 15.75% | Random number = 41.45 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 2.62% | Random number = 94.91 (no red card)

Df Jay Black: Chance of booking = 15.75% | Random number = 27.06 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 2.62% | Random number = 96.58 (no red card)

Mf Cameron Reid: Chance of booking = 15.75% | Random number = 95.74 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 2.62% | Random number = 74.25 (no red card)

Mf Tom Schmitt: Chance of booking = 15.75% | Random number = 18.22 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 2.62% | Random number = 78.84 (no red card)

Mf Rhys Blair: Chance of booking = 15.75% | Random number = 97.99 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 2.62% | Random number = 57.5 (no red card)

Fw Geoffrey Charlton: Chance of booking = 15.75% | Random number = 14.5 (BOOKED!) 
   Chance of second booking = 2.62% | Random number = 36.09 (no second yellow)

Fw Finlay Neville: Chance of booking = 15.75% | Random number = 25.04 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 2.62% | Random number = 81.08 (no red card)

Fw Simon Forsberg: Chance of booking = 15.75% | Random number = 53.44 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 2.62% | Random number = 31.37 (no red card)

*******  SWINDON TOWN FC YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
   - Team Hardness = 0
   - Gk   Hardness = 0

Gk Paul Birks: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 29.45 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 63.28 (no red card)

Df Murray Blair: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 75.87 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 53.03 (no red card)

Df Mika Weiss: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 46.49 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 34.49 (no red card)

Df Samuel Clark: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 82.32 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 33.28 (no red card)

Df Oran Farrell: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 33.89 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 79.65 (no red card)

Mf Thomás Gouveia: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 76.52 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 11.02 (no red card)

Mf Eoin McGuire: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 65.45 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 71.99 (no red card)

Mf Gregory Garcia: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 44.0 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 97.96 (no red card)

Fw Marty Pearce: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 36.29 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 20.33 (no red card)

Fw Florian Neuville: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 55.14 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 35.89 (no red card)

Fw Joe Humphreys: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 34.01 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 33.45 (no red card)
============================================================================
============================================================================
I  N  J  U  R  I  E  S

A major consequence of hardness is that your opponents get injured. 
For each player the chance of injury is:   
  ((your team’s hardness * .25) + (opponent’s hardness * .75) + 2.5)%.
    For example if your team has a hardness of 8 and the opposition has a hardness of 4,
    the chance of injury for each player would be: 2 + 3 + 2.5 or 7.5%.

The chance is halved for the opposition Gk. A player plays at half 
his normal level (skill plus fitness) in the match in which he is injured.

Injured players lose fitness as a result, the amount of fitness lost being
shown on the game report in brackets. There is a 30% chance of no fitness loss,
15% chance of 1 level fitness lost, 15% of 2 levels, and a 10% chance
of each of 3,4,5, or 6 fitness levels being lost. 
This fitness loss (if any) takes place at the end of the session, for 
reasons of simplicity. Should a player be injured twice or
more in a session, only the most severe injury will apply.


*******  SOUTHEND UNITED CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
   - Southend United Team Hardness = 5
   - Swindon Town FC Team Hardness = 0
   - All (except Gk) chance of injury = 3.75%
   - Gk chance of injury = 1.87%
Gk Robert Hay: Chance of injury = 1.87% | Random number = 72.13 (no injury) 
Sw Kyle Fortune-West: Chance of injury = 3.75% | Random number = 62.75 (no injury) 
Df Dave Ruiz: Chance of injury = 3.75% | Random number = 77.13 (no injury) 
Df Gabriele Esposito: Chance of injury = 3.75% | Random number = 20.45 (no injury) 
Df Jay Black: Chance of injury = 3.75% | Random number = 7.41 (no injury) 
Mf Cameron Reid: Chance of injury = 3.75% | Random number = 93.8 (no injury) 
Mf Tom Schmitt: Chance of injury = 3.75% | Random number = 70.33 (no injury) 
Mf Rhys Blair: Chance of injury = 3.75% | Random number = 71.14 (no injury) 
Fw Geoffrey Charlton: Chance of injury = 3.75% | Random number = 46.56 (no injury) 
Fw Finlay Neville: Chance of injury = 3.75% | Random number = 21.97 (no injury) 
Fw Simon Forsberg: Chance of injury = 3.75% | Random number = 19.38 (no injury) 

*******  SWINDON TOWN FC CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
   - Swindon Town FC Team Hardness = 0
   - Southend United Team Hardness = 5
   - All (except Gk) chance of injury = 6.25%
   - Gk chance of injury = 3.12%
Gk Paul Birks: Chance of injury = 3.12% | Random number = 76.46 (no injury) 
Df Murray Blair: Chance of injury = 6.25% | Random number = 78.47 (no injury) 
Df Mika Weiss: Chance of injury = 6.25% | Random number = 26.56 (no injury) 
Df Samuel Clark: Chance of injury = 6.25% | Random number = 86.39 (no injury) 
Df Oran Farrell: Chance of injury = 6.25% | Random number = 76.98 (no injury) 
Mf Thomás Gouveia: Chance of injury = 6.25% | Random number = 25.28 (no injury) 
Mf Eoin McGuire: Chance of injury = 6.25% | Random number = 68.0 (no injury) 
Mf Gregory Garcia: Chance of injury = 6.25% | Random number = 65.99 (no injury) 
Fw Marty Pearce: Chance of injury = 6.25% | Random number = 60.97 (no injury) 
Fw Florian Neuville: Chance of injury = 6.25% | Random number = 24.15 (no injury) 
Fw Joe Humphreys: Chance of injury = 6.25% | Random number = 5.11 (INJURED!) 
      Targeted fitness lost = 6
      Joe Humphreys loses 6 fitness points (deducted at end of session)
      Joe Humphreys new match skill level =  3
      Joe Humphreys new match total level =  5
============================================================================
============================================================================
P  E  N  A  L  T  Y     K  I  C  K  S

There is a 10% chance of conceding a penalty for every hardness point used.
Each 10% chance is separate, so a team could concede as many penalties as it plays
hardness points. If no hardness is used, there is still a 5% penalty chance. 
The chance of a penalty being scored is: 
  50 + (4 x penalty takers skill) - (2 x Gk skill)  %    (to a maximum 95%)

*******  SWINDON TOWN FC CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
   - Team Hardness: 0; (1 5% chance of yielding a PK)
   - PK Taker: Geoffrey Charlton SL 14
   - Defending Gk: Paul Birks SL 13

     intRndPk = 46
1: Chance of PK occurring = 5% | Random number = 46 (no penalty kick)

*******  SOUTHEND UNITED CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
   - Team Hardness: 5; (5 10% chances of yielding PKs)
   - PK Taker: Thomás Gouveia SL 15
   - Defending Gk: Robert Hay SL 16

1: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 100 (no penalty kick)
2: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 79 (no penalty kick)
3: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 45 (no penalty kick)
4: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 89 (no penalty kick)
5: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 19 (no penalty kick)
============================================================================
============================================================================
A  T  T  A  C  K  I  N  G      C  H  A  N  C  E  S      &      S  H  O  T  S

  (i)   If team A's Fw area total is greater than team B's Df area total, 
        then A earns a number of attacks equal to the difference.
        Note: A Sw  does NOT add his levels to the Df in this league! 

  (ii)  The team with the highest Mf area total gets attacks equal to half
        the difference.

  (iii) If team A's Df area total is greater than team B's Fw total, then  
        team A earns a number of attacks equal to one fifth of the difference.
        If team A is playing a sweeper behind the defence, this rises to one 
        third of the difference.  All fractions of attacks are rounded up, 
        and then each of the attacks is treated as follows to see how many 
        produce shots, then goals: 

  (iv)  Attacks have first to beat the Sw (if playing!).  For each attack,
        there is a percentage chance of it being stopped equal to:
              30 + (Sw level x 2) % 
        (eg a level 10 Sw stops 30+10x2=50% of attacks.) Attacks passing the 
        Sw become shots.

  (v)   Each shot has a 35% chance of being off-target. If a side has scored
        2 goals this rises to 40%, then by a further 5% after each goal scored,
        to a maximum of 75%. This is to curb ridiculous scorelines (with luck!)

  (vi)  Finally, on-target shots come up against the  Gk. This is similar to 
        the Sw test, but the percentage is:
        40 + (Gk level x 2.25) % 

  Notes: If the defense is playing offside trap then the offensive team has
         their Fw attacks cut in half and theor Mf attacks doubled.

         A team choosing to PFD has 7 extra levels to split between Sw, 
         Df and Mf areas, but their attacks for each area will be halved 
         (round up fractions).

*******  SOUTHEND UNITED ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
  AREA TOTALS             GK  Sw  Df  Mf  Fw
  -------------------------------------------
  Southend United          18  10  40  29  55
  Swindon Town FC          13   0  40  31  37

Southend United Fw Attacks = 15 (55 - 40); result rounded up
Southend United Mf Attacks = 0 ((29 - 31) / 2;  rounded up)
Southend United Df Attacks = 1 ((40 - 37) / 3); result rounded up
Southend United Total Attacks = 16

1: Attack for Df Jay Black
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Swindon Town FC
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 63 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 69.25% | Random number = 33.79 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
2: Attack for Fw Geoffrey Charlton
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Swindon Town FC
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 51 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 69.25% | Random number = 8.79 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
3: Attack for Fw Simon Forsberg
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Swindon Town FC
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 88 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 69.25% | Random number = 67.89 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
4: Attack for Fw Geoffrey Charlton
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Swindon Town FC
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 97 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 69.25% | Random number = 76.6 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 
5: Attack for Fw Simon Forsberg
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Swindon Town FC
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 34 (Shot Off Target) 
6: Attack for Fw Finlay Neville
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Swindon Town FC
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 62 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 69.25% | Random number = 41.45 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
7: Attack for Fw Geoffrey Charlton
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Swindon Town FC
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 63 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 69.25% | Random number = 65.87 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
8: Attack for Fw Geoffrey Charlton
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Swindon Town FC
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 1 (Shot Off Target) 
9: Attack for Fw Finlay Neville
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Swindon Town FC
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 62 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 69.25% | Random number = 61.19 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
10: Attack for Fw Geoffrey Charlton
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Swindon Town FC
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 34 (Shot Off Target) 
11: Attack for Fw Finlay Neville
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Swindon Town FC
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 17 (Shot Off Target) 
12: Attack for Fw Simon Forsberg
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Swindon Town FC
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 20 (Shot Off Target) 
13: Attack for Fw Finlay Neville
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Swindon Town FC
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 12 (Shot Off Target) 
14: Attack for Fw Finlay Neville
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Swindon Town FC
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 66 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 69.25% | Random number = 0.75 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
15: Attack for Fw Geoffrey Charlton
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Swindon Town FC
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 91 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 69.25% | Random number = 31.57 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
16: Attack for Fw Geoffrey Charlton
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Swindon Town FC
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 86 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 69.25% | Random number = 10.5 (Shot Saved by Gk) 

*******  SWINDON TOWN FC ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
  AREA TOTALS             GK  Sw  Df  Mf  Fw
  -------------------------------------------
  Swindon Town FC          13   0  40  31  37
  Southend United          18  10  40  29  55

Swindon Town FC Fw Attacks = 0 (37 - 40)
Swindon Town FC Mf Attacks = 1 ((31 - 29) / 2) ; result rounded up
Swindon Town FC Df Attacks = 0 ((40 - 55) / 5;  rounded up)
Swindon Town FC Total Attacks = 1

1: Attack for Mf Eoin McGuire
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 50% | Random number = 100 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 92 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 80.5% | Random number = 58.59 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
===============================================
     F  I  N  A  L         S  C  O  R  E
SOUTHEND UNITED 1  -  SWINDON TOWN FC 0
 
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