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Derby County
Rob Baptiste
 
Crewe Alexandra FC
Bill Ramsay
 
 
League Round 11
 
 
 
 

S  T  A  R  T  I  N  G      L  I  N  E  U  P  S

DERBY COUNTY                               CREWE ALEXANDRA FC

Ps Player Name            SL  FIT  LVL     Ps Player Name            SL  FIT  LVL
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gk Frank Walker           10    2   12     Gk Henry Stone            13    0   13
Df Emilio Rossi            8    2   10     Sw Gabriel Martin          8    2   10
Mf Saburo Kato            10    2   12     Df Thomas Charlton        13    1   14
Df Rhys Robinson          11    2   13     Df Jacob Harewood         13    1   14
Mf Jimmy Park              5    2    7     Df Nigel Clarke           12    1   13
Df Connor East             4    2    6     Mf Gaëtan Adam            12    0   12
Mf Douglas Araújo          4    2    6     Mf Gregg Baldwin           9    2   11
Mf Reece McGregor         11    2   13     Mf Mark Cockham            8    2   10
Fw Lok Zhang               5    1    6     Fw Erling Hauge           16    0   16
Mf Lorenzo Riva            3    1    4     Fw Luis  Gutiérrez        19    0   19
Fw Alexander Burns         4    2    6     Fw Fernando Neves         13    1   14

      Gk Sw Df Mf Fw   A R E A  T O T A L S    Gk Sw Df Mf Fw
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
      12  0 29 42 12        ROSTER TOTALS      13 10 41 33 49    
       5  0  0  0  0          HARDNESS          0  0  0  0  0    
       0  0  0  0  9       HOME ADVANTAGE       0  0  0  0  0    
       0  0  0  0  0  GREAT PERFORMANCE POINTS  0  0  0  0  0    
       0  0  0  0  0        PLAY FOR DRAW       0  0  0  0  0    
=======================================================================
      17  0 29 42 21         T O T A L S       13 10 41 33 49    

============================================================================
============================================================================
B  O  O  K  I  N  G  S

Each player is next given a chance for a yellow/red card.  The first
number listed is the chance for the player to get the yellow/red
card while the second number shows the random number drawn.  If the 
random number is less than or equal to the player's yellow/red card 
chance then the player is sent off.  Note that the chances are as follows:
	- Booking: 1.5 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness))
	- Red Card: 0.25 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness)))

If a player is booked we immediately draw a second number to check
for a 'second yellow' (red card chance) resulting in a sending off.
If a player is not booked we draw a red card chance to see if the player
was given a straight red card.  Note that the aforementioned formula
differs for a Gk where the formula uses the hardness points added to
your Gk area and NOT the team hardness points.

*******  DERBY COUNTY YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
   - Team Hardness = 5
   - Gk   Hardness = 5

Gk Frank Walker: Chance of booking = 15.75% | Random number = 79.8 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 2.625% | Random number = 68.76 (no red card)

Df Emilio Rossi: Chance of booking = 15.75% | Random number = 87.33 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 2.62% | Random number = 65.12 (no red card)

Mf Saburo Kato: Chance of booking = 15.75% | Random number = 78.31 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 2.62% | Random number = 33.83 (no red card)

Df Rhys Robinson: Chance of booking = 15.75% | Random number = 36.38 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 2.62% | Random number = 22.58 (no red card)

Mf Jimmy Park: Chance of booking = 15.75% | Random number = 74.52 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 2.62% | Random number = 2.39 (STRAIGHT RED CARD! SENT OFF!!!)
      Jimmy Park new match skill level =  3
      Jimmy Park new match total level =  5

Df Connor East: Chance of booking = 15.75% | Random number = 32.31 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 2.62% | Random number = 95.02 (no red card)

Mf Douglas Araújo: Chance of booking = 15.75% | Random number = 54.59 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 2.62% | Random number = 41.8 (no red card)

Mf Reece McGregor: Chance of booking = 15.75% | Random number = 33.78 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 2.62% | Random number = 95.92 (no red card)

Fw Lok Zhang: Chance of booking = 15.75% | Random number = 38.3 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 2.62% | Random number = 56.99 (no red card)

Mf Lorenzo Riva: Chance of booking = 15.75% | Random number = 57.94 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 2.62% | Random number = 39.69 (no red card)

Fw Alexander Burns: Chance of booking = 15.75% | Random number = 24.74 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 2.62% | Random number = 90.98 (no red card)

*******  CREWE ALEXANDRA FC YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
   - Team Hardness = 0
   - Gk   Hardness = 0

Gk Henry Stone: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 42.83 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 85.97 (no red card)

Sw Gabriel Martin: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 71.48 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 94.83 (no red card)

Df Thomas Charlton: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 89.0 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 59.36 (no red card)

Df Jacob Harewood: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 51.61 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 76.58 (no red card)

Df Nigel Clarke: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 85.96 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 91.69 (no red card)

Mf Gaëtan Adam: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 42.01 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 87.68 (no red card)

Mf Gregg Baldwin: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 77.26 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 52.22 (no red card)

Mf Mark Cockham: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 58.82 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 69.94 (no red card)

Fw Erling Hauge: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 15.79 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 33.35 (no red card)

Fw Luis  Gutiérrez: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 69.01 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 6.2 (no red card)

Fw Fernando Neves: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 84.03 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 14.07 (no red card)
============================================================================
============================================================================
I  N  J  U  R  I  E  S

A major consequence of hardness is that your opponents get injured. 
For each player the chance of injury is:   
  ((your team’s hardness * .25) + (opponent’s hardness * .75) + 2.5)%.
    For example if your team has a hardness of 8 and the opposition has a hardness of 4,
    the chance of injury for each player would be: 2 + 3 + 2.5 or 7.5%.

The chance is halved for the opposition Gk. A player plays at half 
his normal level (skill plus fitness) in the match in which he is injured.

Injured players lose fitness as a result, the amount of fitness lost being
shown on the game report in brackets. There is a 30% chance of no fitness loss,
15% chance of 1 level fitness lost, 15% of 2 levels, and a 10% chance
of each of 3,4,5, or 6 fitness levels being lost. 
This fitness loss (if any) takes place at the end of the session, for 
reasons of simplicity. Should a player be injured twice or
more in a session, only the most severe injury will apply.


*******  DERBY COUNTY CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
   - Derby County Team Hardness = 5
   - Crewe Alexandra FC Team Hardness = 0
   - All (except Gk) chance of injury = 3.75%
   - Gk chance of injury = 1.87%
Gk Frank Walker: Chance of injury = 1.87% | Random number = 47.75 (no injury) 
Df Emilio Rossi: Chance of injury = 3.75% | Random number = 70.79 (no injury) 
Mf Saburo Kato: Chance of injury = 3.75% | Random number = 34.69 (no injury) 
Df Rhys Robinson: Chance of injury = 3.75% | Random number = 78.06 (no injury) 
Mf Jimmy Park: Chance of injury = 3.75% | Random number = 25.16 (no injury) 
Df Connor East: Chance of injury = 3.75% | Random number = 33.05 (no injury) 
Mf Douglas Araújo: Chance of injury = 3.75% | Random number = 45.09 (no injury) 
Mf Reece McGregor: Chance of injury = 3.75% | Random number = 90.13 (no injury) 
Fw Lok Zhang: Chance of injury = 3.75% | Random number = 71.54 (no injury) 
Mf Lorenzo Riva: Chance of injury = 3.75% | Random number = 54.37 (no injury) 
Fw Alexander Burns: Chance of injury = 3.75% | Random number = 27.44 (no injury) 

*******  CREWE ALEXANDRA FC CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
   - Crewe Alexandra FC Team Hardness = 0
   - Derby County Team Hardness = 5
   - All (except Gk) chance of injury = 6.25%
   - Gk chance of injury = 3.12%
Gk Henry Stone: Chance of injury = 3.12% | Random number = 0.94 (INJURED!) 
      Targeted fitness lost = 2
      Henry Stone is being assisted by the Physio. He will lose 1 fitness points (deducted at end of session)
      Henry Stone new match skill level =  7
      Henry Stone new match total level =  7
Sw Gabriel Martin: Chance of injury = 6.25% | Random number = 94.6 (no injury) 
Df Thomas Charlton: Chance of injury = 6.25% | Random number = 50.97 (no injury) 
Df Jacob Harewood: Chance of injury = 6.25% | Random number = 7.36 (no injury) 
Df Nigel Clarke: Chance of injury = 6.25% | Random number = 10.73 (no injury) 
Mf Gaëtan Adam: Chance of injury = 6.25% | Random number = 13.06 (no injury) 
Mf Gregg Baldwin: Chance of injury = 6.25% | Random number = 83.02 (no injury) 
Mf Mark Cockham: Chance of injury = 6.25% | Random number = 57.61 (no injury) 
Fw Erling Hauge: Chance of injury = 6.25% | Random number = 95.86 (no injury) 
Fw Luis  Gutiérrez: Chance of injury = 6.25% | Random number = 5.99 (INJURED!) 
      Targeted fitness lost = 1
      Luis  Gutiérrez is being assisted by the Physio.  He won't lose any fitness points, but he'll have to come off.
      Luis  Gutiérrez new match skill level =  10
      Luis  Gutiérrez new match total level =  10
Fw Fernando Neves: Chance of injury = 6.25% | Random number = 9.34 (no injury) 
============================================================================
============================================================================
P  E  N  A  L  T  Y     K  I  C  K  S

There is a 10% chance of conceding a penalty for every hardness point used.
Each 10% chance is separate, so a team could concede as many penalties as it plays
hardness points. If no hardness is used, there is still a 5% penalty chance. 
The chance of a penalty being scored is: 
  50 + (4 x penalty takers skill) - (2 x Gk skill)  %    (to a maximum 95%)

*******  CREWE ALEXANDRA FC CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
   - Team Hardness: 0; (1 5% chance of yielding a PK)
   - PK Taker: Rhys Robinson SL 11
   - Defending Gk: Henry Stone SL 7

     intRndPk = 22
1: Chance of PK occurring = 5% | Random number = 22 (no penalty kick)

*******  DERBY COUNTY CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
   - Team Hardness: 5; (5 10% chances of yielding PKs)
   - PK Taker: Erling Hauge SL 16
   - Defending Gk: Frank Walker SL 10

1: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 99 (no penalty kick)
2: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 25 (no penalty kick)
3: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 33 (no penalty kick)
4: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 41 (no penalty kick)
5: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 54 (no penalty kick)
============================================================================
============================================================================
A  T  T  A  C  K  I  N  G      C  H  A  N  C  E  S      &      S  H  O  T  S

  (i)   If team A's Fw area total is greater than team B's Df area total, 
        then A earns a number of attacks equal to the difference.
        Note: A Sw  does NOT add his levels to the Df in this league! 

  (ii)  The team with the highest Mf area total gets attacks equal to half
        the difference.

  (iii) If team A's Df area total is greater than team B's Fw total, then  
        team A earns a number of attacks equal to one fifth of the difference.
        If team A is playing a sweeper behind the defence, this rises to one 
        third of the difference.  All fractions of attacks are rounded up, 
        and then each of the attacks is treated as follows to see how many 
        produce shots, then goals: 

  (iv)  Attacks have first to beat the Sw (if playing!).  For each attack,
        there is a percentage chance of it being stopped equal to:
              30 + (Sw level x 2) % 
        (eg a level 10 Sw stops 30+10x2=50% of attacks.) Attacks passing the 
        Sw become shots.

  (v)   Each shot has a 35% chance of being off-target. If a side has scored
        2 goals this rises to 40%, then by a further 5% after each goal scored,
        to a maximum of 75%. This is to curb ridiculous scorelines (with luck!)

  (vi)  Finally, on-target shots come up against the  Gk. This is similar to 
        the Sw test, but the percentage is:
        40 + (Gk level x 2.25) % 

  Notes: If the defense is playing offside trap then the offensive team has
         their Fw attacks cut in half and theor Mf attacks doubled.

         A team choosing to PFD has 7 extra levels to split between Sw, 
         Df and Mf areas, but their attacks for each area will be halved 
         (round up fractions).

*******  DERBY COUNTY ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
  AREA TOTALS             GK  Sw  Df  Mf  Fw
  -------------------------------------------
  Derby County             17   0  29  40  21
  Crewe Alexandra FC       7  10  41  33  40

Derby County Fw Attacks = 0 (21 - 41)
Derby County Mf Attacks = 4 ((40 - 33) / 2) ; result rounded up
Derby County Df Attacks = 0 ((29 - 40) / 5;  rounded up)
Derby County Total Attacks = 4

1: Attack for Mf Saburo Kato
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 50% | Random number = 22 (Sw stopped attack) 
2: Attack for Mf Jimmy Park
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 50% | Random number = 76 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 40 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 55.75% | Random number = 98.53 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 
3: Attack for Mf Reece McGregor
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 50% | Random number = 40 (Sw stopped attack) 
4: Attack for Mf Douglas Araújo
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 50% | Random number = 67 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 42 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 55.75% | Random number = 66.02 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 

*******  CREWE ALEXANDRA FC ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
  AREA TOTALS             GK  Sw  Df  Mf  Fw
  -------------------------------------------
  Crewe Alexandra FC       7  10  41  33  40
  Derby County             17   0  29  40  21

Derby County is using Offside Trap!
Crewe Alexandra FC Fw Attacks = 6 (40 - 29) * 0.5 (OST Multiplier) ; result rounded up
Crewe Alexandra FC Mf Attacks = 0 ((33 - 40) / 2;  rounded up)
Crewe Alexandra FC Df Attacks = 7 ((41 - 21) / 3); result rounded up
Crewe Alexandra FC Total Attacks = 13

1: Attack for Df Nigel Clarke
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Derby County
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 60 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 78.25% | Random number = 14.44 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
2: Attack for Df Jacob Harewood
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Derby County
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 46 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 78.25% | Random number = 8.4 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
3: Attack for Df Thomas Charlton
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Derby County
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 88 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 78.25% | Random number = 54.43 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
4: Attack for Df Jacob Harewood
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Derby County
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 93 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 78.25% | Random number = 90.16 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 
5: Attack for Df Nigel Clarke
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Derby County
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 85 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 78.25% | Random number = 43.59 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
6: Attack for Df Jacob Harewood
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Derby County
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 41 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 78.25% | Random number = 31.42 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
7: Attack for Df Jacob Harewood
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Derby County
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 7 (Shot Off Target) 
8: Attack for Fw Luis  Gutiérrez
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Derby County
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 67 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 78.25% | Random number = 29.91 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
9: Attack for Fw Fernando Neves
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Derby County
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 72 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 78.25% | Random number = 35.74 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
10: Attack for Fw Fernando Neves
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Derby County
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 93 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 78.25% | Random number = 59.25 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
11: Attack for Fw Luis  Gutiérrez
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Derby County
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 31 (Shot Off Target) 
12: Attack for Fw Fernando Neves
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Derby County
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 81 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 78.25% | Random number = 1.54 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
13: Attack for Fw Fernando Neves
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Derby County
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 16 (Shot Off Target) 
===============================================
     F  I  N  A  L         S  C  O  R  E
DERBY COUNTY 2  -  CREWE ALEXANDRA FC 1
 
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